What if US wins the Second Mexican War in TL-191 ?

[MaxGerke01]

So suppose the United States won the Second Mexican War in the Tl-191 series -what would that victory have looked like ? If the Confederates were denied the Mexican states that alone wouldnt have meant their end as a independent nation but whats the effect long term? What does the CSA end up doing about slavery without the immediate pressure from Britain and France to end it as a prid pro quo for successful war assistance? Since the US wins this conflict does something like Remembrance ideology still develop in the US ? Does the US still develop a strong alliance with Germany ? How does the the US relationship with Britain and France fair ? Does the Republican party come back full steam in the US ? Do the Socialists still become a strong party ? Does the Great War still come to North America ?

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

The German alliance likely gets butterflied- a smaller version of Remembrance will likely still exist (assuming the CSA still survives, which I find likely).
The CS economy is obviously smaller/weaker without a Pacific coastline... depending on how badly things go they might lose Kentucky. Eventually, probably in the late 1880s, they'll get round to abolishing slavery.
Anglo/Franco- American relations are never going to be good (at least, not in the short term), but I imagine the USA won't go to war with them in 1914.

An interesting possibility might be a Confederacy dominated by its more powerful neighbour, which can push it around at will.

 

[Worffan101]

So basically reality ensues in 1880 or so?

The USA crushes the CSA like a grape. The Brits and French dump their backwards embarrassment of a puppet state to focus on the resurgent Germany, which is already likely close friends with America due to mutual enemies and no conflicting interests. The USA is not quite so hostile to the British in the long-term, but I can see the USA staying out of *WW1 until relatively late, but they will still likely supply Germany rather than Britain and bankroll the German war effort heavily.

The CSA, being founded by, for, and about slavery, will hold onto it until the bitter end. The state will be dismantled, the plantations taken and parcelled out among freedmen by the USA. Confederate whites will be subjected to decades of martial law by vengeful Yankees, and will likely support anti-government terrorism for over a century.

 

[Ryan lozano]

Actually in reality in a state where the USA wins the Second Mexican War, The CSA will automatically rejoin the USA whether they like it or not because this USA is much more imperialist then it was before the civil war

 

[MaxGerke01]

So basically reality ensues in 1880 or so?

The USA crushes the CSA like a grape. The Brits and French dump their backwards embarrassment of a puppet state to focus on the resurgent Germany, which is already likely close friends with America due to mutual enemies and no conflicting interests. The USA is not quite so hostile to the British in the long-term, but I can see the USA staying out of *WW1 until relatively late, but they will still likely supply Germany rather than Britain and bankroll the German war effort heavily.

The CSA, being founded by, for, and about slavery, will hold onto it until the bitter end. The state will be dismantled, the plantations taken and parcelled out among freedmen by the USA. Confederate whites will be subjected to decades of martial law by vengeful Yankees, and will likely support anti-government terrorism for over a century.

Actually in reality in a state where the USA wins the Second Mexican War, The CSA will automatically rejoin the USA whether they like it or not because this USA is much more imperialist then it was before the civil war

Well keeping this in the Tl 191 framework the war aims of the US were far from from totally defeating and reconquering the CSA it was just looking to stop them from purchasing the Mexican territories as states and therefore acquiring a Pacific coast and of course taking the CSA down a peg or two. But totally reconquering them even if they didnt have British and French help would not be a cake walk after they had been independent for 20 years. Look at what almost happened OTL after just 4 years-if the US had bungled things more and the CSA had held out they could have won. Im not saying the US couldnt win in an all out war with the CSA in Tl-191 at this time but it would have been a much more difficult and costly conflict than the Second Mexican War and probably the OTL Civil War since at this point you have at least one and probably two generations who see the USA and CSA as separate countries so youd have Confederates fighting very hard to stay that way and Americans not fighting real hard to end it ....

 

[Worffan101]

Well keeping this in the Tl 191 framework the war aims of the US were far from from totally defeating and reconquering the CSA it was just looking to stop them from purchasing the Mexican territories as states and therefore acquiring a Pacific coast and of course taking the CSA down a peg or two. But totally reconquering them even if they didnt have British and French help would not be a cake walk after they had been independent for 20 years. Look at what almost happened OTL after just 4 years-if the US had bungled things more and the CSA had held out they could have won. Im not saying the US couldnt win in an all out war with the CSA in Tl-191 at this time but it would have been a much more difficult and costly conflict than the Second Mexican War and probably the OTL Civil War since at this point you have at least one and probably two generations who see the USA and CSA as separate countries so youd have Confederates fighting very hard to stay that way and Americans not fighting real hard to end it ....

Those war aims are a blatant cover, in any sane universe, for the USA systematically dismantling and reannexing the slavocracy. Even if the CSA is so insanely fortunate as to survive, it's still an impoverished backwater staring down the communism barrel.

 

[MaxGerke01]

Those war aims are a blatant cover, in any sane universe, for the USA systematically dismantling and reannexing the slavocracy. Even if the CSA is so insanely fortunate as to survive, it's still an impoverished backwater staring down the communism barrel.

Well as much as I agree with wanting to defeat and dismantle a slaveocracy doing that was very far from what was motivating the US in TL-191. Sure the US would not have minded seeing slavery ended if only because it would have weakened the power of the CSA but the well being of black people was not the main reason the US was fighting the CSA-that wasnt the case in the War of Seccession or Second Mexican War and certainley and very tragically wasnt the case in the Great War and Second Great War-it was a secondary goal at best in all of those conflicts. Also at this point communism or socialism was not really am issue yet in the Western world. So what would motivate the US to fight and win a war of total reconquest at this time ?

 

[wcv215]

IMO outright reconquest is unlikely simply due to the fact the CSA has already been independent for twenty years at this stage. Reincorporating all the states would be too much trouble. The US will likely retake Oklahoma, Kentucky, and possibly northern Virginia. Sections of North Carolina too if they get lucky. That will basically permanently neuter the CSA. Independence for Cuba is also a near certainty. Rather than retake the rest the US would likely seek to break the south economically. For instance, require that American goods be exempted from any import duties, or similar. The Confederacy would be left a shell of it former self, and would either fall apart inside the next twenty years, or be reduced to a minor power likely below even the Second Mexican Empire.

 

[MaxGerke01]

IMO outright reconquest is unlikely simply due to the fact the CSA has already been independent for twenty years at this stage. Reincorporating all the states would be too much trouble. The US will likely retake Oklahoma, Kentucky, and possibly northern Virginia. Sections of North Carolina too if they get lucky. That will basically permanently neuter the CSA. Independence for Cuba is also a near certainty. Rather than retake the rest the US would likely seek to break the south economically. For instance, require that American goods be exempted from any import duties, or similar. The Confederacy would be left a shell of it former self, and would either fall apart inside the next twenty years, or be reduced to a minor power likely below even the Second Mexican Empire.

I could see them reduced to a minor power in the way you say .But even if it collapsed would it automatically follow that it would be reincorporated into the US as you often see in that scenario since many there would very violently oppose that after 40 years of independence ?

 

[Worffan101]

IMO outright reconquest is unlikely simply due to the fact the CSA has already been independent for twenty years at this stage. Reincorporating all the states would be too much trouble. The US will likely retake Oklahoma, Kentucky, and possibly northern Virginia. Sections of North Carolina too if they get lucky. That will basically permanently neuter the CSA. Independence for Cuba is also a near certainty. Rather than retake the rest the US would likely seek to break the south economically. For instance, require that American goods be exempted from any import duties, or similar. The Confederacy would be left a shell of it former self, and would either fall apart inside the next twenty years, or be reduced to a minor power likely below even the Second Mexican Empire.

The USA has an overwhelming population advantage and the near certain support of the black population. It won't be easy but it's 100 percent doable.

I just don't see the CSA surviving at all, let alone to the turn of the century.

 

[MaxGerke01]

The USA has an overwhelming population advantage and the near certain support of the black population. It won't be easy but it's 100 percent doable.

I just don't see the CSA surviving at all, let alone to the turn of the century.

Me and Frederick Douglass agree with you but what would get James G Blaine to do it ?

 

[Ryan lozano]

Well when the USA wins you bet your ass that the higher ups will be arguing about to either annex it or cripple it. I bet George Custer will say annex it and most of the republicans will too

 

[Worffan101]

Me and Frederick Douglass agree with you but what would get James G Blaine to do it ?

Yeah, probably.

See, the entire Army has literally grown up with Pa grousing about all his buddies who died in the War of Southern Aggression because Johnny Reb wanted to keep other men in bondage, there's good Christian men down south being held in bondage and Uncle Sam didn't help them last time so it's our duty this time, by God. And also Sarge says that the Rebs called the mothers of every last man in the platoon a dirt-poor wh*re. Are you gonna let Johnny Reb call your momma a wh*re, or are you gonna be a man and kick Johnny Reb where it hurts until he begs for mercy?

Going to be pretty hard for the Union to not at least dismantle the CSA and forcibly institute black rule in the various states. It'll be decades of miserable occupation, probably be super unpopular by the mid 1890s, but it'll at least be attempted.

 

[wcv215]

The USA has an overwhelming population advantage and the near certain support of the black population. It won't be easy but it's 100 percent doable.

I just don't see the CSA surviving at all, let alone to the turn of the century.

The thing is that this turns a quick glorious war into a long grinding struggle that might just bring the Europeans into it again, and them staying out of it is the way the Americans win. Now, des that mean it can't happen? No. But IMO you severely overestimate how many Northerners will care enough about slaves to keep the war going to free them, and how many will want to further revenge themselves on the South at this stage.

As for the CSA surviving, I can a way for it to happen, but it is tricky. IMO the only way the Confederacy makes it past 1900 is to go the route of the Porfiriato. The United States is there, its always going to be there, and its never going away. You have to find a way to live with them, so opening the country to investment/exploitation is the most realistic way forward. So you'll have Northern oil companies in Texas, Northern Mining companies near Birmingham, Northern train tracks crisscrossing the country, etc. With the wealthy growing even fatter off of these lucrative growth sources.

That said though, the model carries a lot of its own risks, since the Porfiriato style of government will by its nature heavily disfavor poor whites, and so long as slavery lasts there will likely be a growing undercurrent of said poor whites who grow to despise slavery because they view the slaves as better off than themselves (something that was heavily plausible even in the 1850s as slave values meant there were jobs too dangerous to let such a valuable asset to do).

(Yes, I have put a lot of thought into it, been planning out a TL-191 reimagining based around this idea for a few years.)

 

[MaxGerke01]

The thing is that this turns a quick glorious war into a long grinding struggle that might just bring the Europeans into it again, and them staying out of it is the way the Americans win. Now, des that mean it can't happen? No. But IMO you severely overestimate how many Northerners will care enough about slaves to keep the war going to free them, and how many will want to further revenge themselves on the South at this stage.

As for the CSA surviving, I can a way for it to happen, but it is tricky. IMO the only way the Confederacy makes it past 1900 is to go the route of the Porfiriato. The United States is there, its always going to be there, and its never going away. You have to find a way to live with them, so opening the country to investment/exploitation is the most realistic way forward. So you'll have Northern oil companies in Texas, Northern Mining companies near Birmingham, Northern train tracks crisscrossing the country, etc. With the wealthy growing even fatter off of these lucrative growth sources.

That said though, the model carries a lot of its own risks, since the Porfiriato style of government will by its nature heavily disfavor poor whites, and so long as slavery lasts there will likely be a growing undercurrent of said poor whites who grow to despise slavery because they view the slaves as better off than themselves (something that was heavily plausible even in the 1850s as slave values meant there were jobs too dangerous to let such a valuable asset to do).

(Yes, I have put a lot of thought into it, been planning out a TL-191 reimagining based around this idea for a few years.)

A few years ? That sounds promising. Are you close to starting ?

 

[wcv215]

A few years ? That sounds promising. Are you close to starting ?

Not yet. I've got to get my current TL done at the very least, and there's still another five hundred years or so to be covered in it.

 

[MaxGerke01]

Not yet. I've got to get my current TL done at the very least, and there's still another five hundred years or so to be covered in it.

What is that timeline about ?

 

[wcv215]

What is that timeline about ?

It’s the one in my signature about the Byzantines.

 

[Worffan101]

I also really like that communist Confederacy idea that @thekingsguard came up with a while back. I might redraw the map a little but broadly I really like the concept and what I saw of his execution.

 

[MaxGerke01]

I also really like that communist Confederacy idea that @thekingsguard came up with a while back. I might redraw the map a little but broadly I really like the concept and what I saw of his execution.

A Communist CSA is interesting but less likely than a Communist USA. The reason for that is of course racism. Poor blacks and whites in the South were and are the majority and are in TL-191 but they never came close to uniting because of racism. The Radical Liberals never had very much white support in the CSA likely for the reason - it was felt they somehow supported black equality and rights with whites so a Communist CSA would have had the support of ever fewer whites and therefore not very likely ....