Man, you are really churning these things out. Great work!
Thank you! I got more time in the last few days and I'm taking the opportunity to move faster on the project!
Man, you are really churning these things out. Great work!
I wonder what the presidential election looks like in TTL. First of all, Buttigieg probably doesn't run if he just got elected to the House. Second, does 1000 congressional districts mean 1,103 electoral votes (552 to win)?
When you get to Texas, please. no. Ducky. Pajamas. (aka Blake Farenthold)...
That is all...
Really digging this project, but oh boy that Arizona map. Yeesh. Did you take Native American reservations in account, like, at all?
Hmm... If we're going with the Voting Rights Act, ethnic rights should be observed, so I would put the Navajo and Hopi Reservations in as few congressional districts as possible. That number should be two, perhaps one, given the population.Well, in reality I didn't really respect the reserve boundary, but from my eyes I think that only two or three were cut, between the 1st, 20th and 21st.
Hmm... If we're going with the Voting Rights Act, ethnic rights should be observed, so I would put the Navajo and Hopi Reservations in as few congressional districts as possible. That number should be two, perhaps one, given the population.
Well, in reality I didn't really respect the reserve boundary, but from my eyes I think that only two or three were cut, between the 1st, 20th and 21st.
I may be wrong, but by my count, Navajo and Hopi, are almost 90% in the 1st and 21st districts. And on the VRA, the Arizona map has 4 majority-minority districts (including the 1st) and 6 districts with more than 37% minority.
Arizona:
Arizona
Phoenix
Tucson
District 1:
PVI – R+12
President 2016: Trump +19%
President 2008: McCain +10%
Governor 2018: Ducey +32%
Senator 2018: McSally +17%
Senator 2016: McCain +20%
District 2:
PVI – D+1
President 2016: Clinton +7%
President 2008: McCain +0.3%
Governor 2018: Ducey +7%
Senator 2018: Sinema +7%
Senator 2016: McCain +2%
District 3:
PVI – D+8
President 2016: Clinton +23%
President 2008: Obama +15%
Governor 2018: Garcia +15%
Senator 2018: Sinema +27%
Senator 2016: Kirkpatrick +12%
District 4:
PVI – D+3
President 2016: Clinton +13%
President 2008: Obama +3%
Governor 2018: Garcia +2%
Senator 2018: Sinema +14%
Senator 2016: Kirkpatrick +2%
District 5:
PVI – R+5
President 2016: Trump +5%
President 2008: McCain +12%
Governor 2018: Ducey +15%
Senator 2018: McSally +6%
Senator 2016: McCain +14%
District 6:
PVI – R+12
President 2016: Trump +22%
President 2008: McCain +17%
Governor 2018: Ducey +34%
Senator 2018: McSally +14%
Senator 2016: McCain +24%
District 7:
PVI – R+12
President 2016: Trump +17%
President 2008: McCain +21%
Governor 2018: Ducey +28%
Senator 2018: McSally +11%
Senator 2016: McCain +28%
District 8:
PVI – R+9
President 2016: Trump +10%
President 2008: McCain +18%
Governor 2018: Ducey +17%
Senator 2018: McSally +1.5%
Senator 2016: McCain +24%
District 9:
PVI – R+16
President 2016: Trump +23%
President 2008: McCain +28%
Governor 2018: Ducey +34%
Senator 2018: McSally +15%
Senator 2016: McCain +30%
District 10:
PVI – D+5
President 2016: Clinton +17%
President 2008: Obama +6%
Governor 2018: Garcia +9%
Senator 2018: Sinema +27%
Senator 2016: Kirkpatrick +1%
District 11:
PVI – D+14
President 2016: Clinton +34%
President 2008: Obama +20%
Governor 2018: Garcia +21%
Senator 2018: Sinema +38%
Senator 2016: Kirkpatrick +16%
District 12:
PVI – D+9
President 2016: Clinton +25%
President 2008: Obama +12%
Governor 2018: Garcia +15%
Senator 2018: Sinema +33%
Senator 2016: Kirkpatrick +7%
District 13:
PVI – D+23
President 2016: Clinton +50%
President 2008: Obama +28%
Governor 2018: Garcia +40%
Senator 2018: Sinema +55%
Senator 2016: Kirkpatrick +30%
District 14:
PVI – R+5
President 2016: Trump +5%
President 2008: McCain +14%
Governor 2018: Ducey +15%
Senator 2018: Sinema +5%
Senator 2016: McCain +16%
District 15:
PVI – D+1
President 2016: Clinton +10%
President 2008: McCain +4%
Governor 2018: Ducey +0.2%
Senator 2018: Sinema +20%
Senator 2016: McCain +5%
District 16:
PVI – R+11
President 2016: Trump +12%
President 2008: McCain +19%
Governor 2018: Ducey +26%
Senator 2018: McSally +8%
Senator 2016: McCain +29%
District 17:
PVI – R+15
President 2016: Trump +22%
President 2008: McCain +24%
Governor 2018: Ducey +31%
Senator 2018: McSally +14%
Senator 2016: McCain +31%
District 18:
PVI – R+7
President 2016: Trump +10%
President 2008: McCain +12%
Governor 2018: Ducey +20%
Senator 2018: McSally +1%
Senator 2016: McCain +18%
District 19:
PVI – R+18
President 2016: Trump +31%
President 2008: McCain +28%
Governor 2018: Ducey +43%
Senator 2018: McSally +24%
Senator 2016: McCain +33%
District 20:
PVI – D+6
President 2016: Clinton +14%
President 2008: Obama +12%
Governor 2018: Garcia +6%
Senator 2018: Sinema +20%
Senator 2016: Kirkpatrick +15%
District 21:
PVI – R+21
President 2016: Trump +39%
President 2008: McCain +26%
Governor 2018: Ducey +47%
Senator 2018: McSally +30%
Senator 2016: McCain +33%
The 1st District of Arizona covers the entire border with New Mexico, from the south to the north of the state. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th districts divide the city of Tucson. The 2nd covers the south of Tucson, in addition to Sahuarta, the 3rd covers the northeast of Tucson and the 4th covers the remaining west of the city, in addition to Oro Valley. The 5th covers the entire southwest of the state, including Yuma.
The 6th district covers most of Pinal County, with the largest city being Casa Grande. The 7th covers the southern suburbs of Phoenix, as well as Mobile and Maricopa. The 8th covers Chandler and Gilbert. The 9th covers most of Mesa. The 10th covers Tempe and the rest of the western portion of Mesa.
The 11th covers the south of the city of Phoenix. The 12th covers an eastern portion of Phoenix, in addition to the south of Scottsdale. The 13th covers the portion of Phoenix south of Glendale, in addition to Tolleson. The 14th covers Glendale and the south of the city of Peoria. The 15th covers the center of Phoenix, as well as Paradise Valley. The 16th covers northern Scottsdale, as well as a portion of Phoenix.
The 17th covers the north of Phoenix. The 18th covers the western suburbs of Phoenix, including Litchfield Park and the south of Surprise and Sun City. The 19th covers the north of Peoria, Surprise and Sun City, going as far north as Prescott. The 20th district covers a large central part of Arizona, starting in Prescott Valley in the west, going south from Flagstaff to the north. The 21st district covers the entire northern part of Arizona.
District 1 – Safe R in 2020
David Gowan (R-Sierra Vista/Cochise), first elected in 2014
District 2 – Lean D in 2020
Martha McSally (R-Tucson/Pima), first elected in 2014, retired in 2018 to run for senate
Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Tucson/Pima), elected in 2018
District 3 – Safe D in 2020
Randall Friese (D-Tucson/Pima), first elected in 2016
District 4 – Likely D in 2020
Raúl Grijalva (D-Tucson/Pima), first elected in 2002
District 5 – Likely R in 2020
Douglas J. Nicholls (R-Yuma), first elected in 2014
District 6 – Safe R in 2020
Paul Babeu (R-Casa Grande/Pinal), first elected in 2012
District 7 – Safe R in 2020
Steve Smith (R-Maricopa/Pinal), first elected in 2014
District 8 – Safe R in 2020
Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert/Maricopa), first elected in 2016
District 9 – Safe R in 2020
Dave Farnsworth (R-Mesa/Maricopa) , first elected in 2006
District 10 – Safe D in 2020
Juan Mendez (D-Temple/Maricopa), first elected in 2014
District 11 – Safe D in 2020
Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix/Maricopa), first elected in 2014
District 12 – Safe D in 2020
Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix/Maricopa), first elected in 2012, retired in 2018 to run for senate
Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix/Maricopa), elected in 2018
District 13 – Safe D in 2020
Katie Hobbs (D-Phoenix/Maricopa), first elected in 2014
District 14 – Lean R in 2020
Trent Franks (R-Glendale/Maricopa), first elected in 2002, retired in 2017
Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria/Maricopa), elected in 2018, special
District 15 – Lean D in 2020
Kimberly Yee (R-Phoenix/Maricopa), first elected in 2012, defeated in 2018
Brianna Westbrook (D-Phoenix/Maricopa), elected in 2018
District 16 – Safe R in 2020
David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Maricopa), first elected in 2010
District 17 – Safe R in 2020
Kate Brophy McGee (R-Phoenix/Maricopa), first elected in 2014
District 18 – Safe R in 2020
Steve Montenegro (R-Litchfield Park/Maricopa), first elected in 2014
District 19 – Safe R in 2020
Paul Gosar (R-Prescott/Yavapai), first elected in 2010
District 20 – Likely D in 2020
Joe Shirley Jr. (D-Chinle/Apache), first elected in 2012
District 21 – Safe R in 2020
Sonny Borrelli (R-Lake Havasu City/Mohave), first elected in 2016
Total:
2016 – GOP 227 x DEM 116
2018 – GOP 204 x DEM 139 (D+23)
You've got the Hopi Reservation and the western half of the Navajo Nation in the same district (21st) as Flagstaff and heavily GOG Kingman and Mojave County, but if it's 90% Navajo then it can't possibly be a safe R district. Something's off there.
Respectfully, the Navajo, Apache, and Hopi tribes have fought really hard to have a chance at getting Congressional representation and I doubt they'd allow the Navajo Nation to be divided three ways and the Apache Nations stuck in a heavily GOP district with Gila County. It's really sort of incredible, all of the Native areas are divided into Safe/Likely R districts or one swing district that's unlikely to elect a Native representative.
Props to you, though, on Juan Mendez in the Tempe district. He's an old buddy, good guy.
@AdrianoChika , @fox~ringo
Yeah, the split of the reservations was the first thing that popped out to me too. It's very similar to my comment about the northwest side of Milwaukee: it's not an area that can reasonably be split up; it's splitting up a community.
.
I edit the map of Arizona. The 1st district has now become Safe R, in return for the 20th district becoming a majority-minority with 42% Native American. The 21st has also become even more Safe R. Congressmen from the 20th and 21st have also changed.
Thank you very much for the feedback, it's always important!
I edit the map of Arizona. The 1st district has now become Safe R, in return for the 20th district becoming a majority-minority with 42% Native American. The 21st has also become even more Safe R. Congressmen from the 20th and 21st have also changed.
Thank you very much for the feedback, it's always important!
I agree. Very nice.Yeah, I think that works better, pretty much guarantees a Navajo rep in Congress. Nice job.
I keep coming back to this thread. It’s like looking at pictures of a love you’ve lost forever. Wallowing in misery at “what should be.“ Look, the size (and scope) of the federal government needs to be cut in half at minimum. But (and as horrifying as this sounds on the face of it) Congress should be expanded like this. You can’t have your finger on the pulse of 500,000. And you can’t intimately know 30 or 50,000. But you sure as hell can relate to the latter better than the former. And you sure as hell can be held accountable by the latter more easily than the former. “Oh, him? He lives four blocks down from here. He did… what? See, no, I voted for him to do the opposite. Where’s my gun…“
Great stuff, man. Thanks for the thought experiment.