Sane German response to the Sarajovo murder in July 1914

[Mikey]

French President Raymond Poincaré and Prime Minister René Viviani departed for Saint Petersburg on 15 July, arrived on 20 July and departed on 23 July.
The French and the Russians agreed their alliance extended to supporting Serbia against Austria, confirming the already established policy behind the Balkan inception scenario. As Christopher Clark notes "Poincare had come to preach the gospel of firmness and his words had fallen on ready ears.

I think it's this aspect that gets somewhat underplayed - and not just Poincare/Viviani but Maurice Paléologue, the French ambassador in St. Petersburg as well. As much as Germany gave AH a blank check, Paleologue came close to giving Russia a blank check from France. And in both cases, Russia and Austria-Hungary felt that they needed to cash it urgently, or else risk losing it and embarrassing themselves in front of their allies.

EDIT: And to add - the logic of deterrence was screwed up in both cases, because it was more private than it should have been. AH felt confident of German backing, and Russia felt confident of French backing, and therefore, they were both more aggressive than they would be otherwise—they may have even taken it as encouragement to be so aggressive. However, these positions were poorly communicated to their rivals, so that Germany proceeded as though French intervention was NOT certain, and Russia acted as though Germany might be convinced to stand down.

 

[TDM]

I think it's this aspect that gets somewhat underplayed - and not just Poincare/Viviani but Maurice Paléologue, the French ambassador in St. Petersburg as well. As much as Germany gave AH a blank check, Paleologue came close to giving Russia a blank check from France. And in both cases, Russia and Austria-Hungary felt that they needed to cash it urgently, or else risk losing it and embarrassing themselves in front of their allies.

Yep, AH is emboldened by knowing Germany has its back, and Russia is emboldened by knowing France has it's back. And the system that was designed to stop general war makes it more like if there a trigger point (and Bismark is rolling in his grave). But eh trigger pint and everyone's actions in it do matter.

 

[marathag]

so look if you want to say but Russia's actions came out of the blue, that's cool. but no one in 1914 would agree with you!

But that was one of the secret agreements that Lenin later released to embarrass the West, correct?
That rider wasn't made public before the War

 

[oberdada]

Stab Austria in the back, remove the Habsburg from power, annex all territory with German majority and/or industrial strategic importance and put a German friendly nobleman on the Hungarian throne.

Live happily ever after...

 

[marathag]

You get the the alliance system was the MAD of it's day, it was designed to prevent anyone trying anything small lest it turns into something much bigger.

With the Tzar pressing the button first. Seems like he didn't care. On to Berlin! One Georgian peasant was worth 10 Prussians in the field, and there were 10 of them to every Prussian, anyway.

 

[marathag]

Stab Austria in the back, remove the Habsburg from power, annex all territory with German majority and/or industrial strategic importance and put a German friendly nobleman on the Hungarian throne.

Live happily ever after...

And be completely surrounded by enemies.
Being shackled to a corpse was better than being alone.

 

[Keb]

Are you sure about that?

I maybe wrong but I get the impression form the rest of the post that's a typo

Yeah, it's an error on my part. I meant to say that it was intended to be unacceptable. I edited that line a couple of times writing and exactly the wrong thing came out at the end because I still haven't developed a habit of checking what I wrote for errors.

 

[oberdada]

And be completely surrounded by enemies.
Being shackled to a corpse was better than being alone.

Actually only France and Russia.

Italy and Germany would only have a small conflict of interest over Southern Tyrol, that should be solvable.
Germany does not station troops there, Italy gets parts of the Dalmatian coast and islands and German support for annexing Albania or something.
Serbia would be glad to not be invaded.
Hungary gets a German friendly government
Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Denmark wouldn't dare to go to war with Germany.
The UK is a naval power and happily so, if you just leave Belgium alone.

France and Russia alone can hardly hope to defeat a defensive Greater Germany.

 

[TDM]

With the Tzar pressing the button first. Seems like he didn't care. On to Berlin! One Georgian peasant was worth 10 Prussians in the field, and there were 10 of them to every Prussian, anyway.

AH going for it in Serbia knowing Russia has Serbia's back is pressing the button first

But that was one of the secret agreements that Lenin later released to embarrass the West, correct?
That rider wasn't made public before the War

What the France Prime Minister and President travelling to Russia In July? Not much of a secret

Plus of course its not like Russian didn't expressly lay out its position, but of course:


On 21 July, the Russian Foreign Minister warned the German ambassador to Russia, "Russia would not be able to tolerate Austria-Hungary's using threatening language to Serbia or taking military measures". The leaders in Berlin discounted that threat of war and failed to pass on the message to Vienna for a week. German Foreign Minister Gottlieb von Jagow noted that "there is certain to be some blustering in St Petersburg". German Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg told his assistant that Britain and France did not realize that Germany would go to war if Russia mobilized. He thought London saw a German "bluff" and was responding with a "counterbluff".

 

[Mikey]

Actually only France and Russia.

Italy and Germany would only have a small conflict of interest over Southern Tyrol, that should be solvable.
Germany does not station troops there, Italy gets parts of the Dalmatian coast and islands and German support for annexing Albania or something.
Serbia would be glad to not be invaded.
Hungary gets a German friendly government
Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Denmark wouldn't dare to go to war with Germany.
The UK is a naval power and happily so, if you just leave Belgium alone.

France and Russia alone can hardly hope to defeat a defensive Greater Germany.

Yeah - Germany's fear of 'encirclement' which drove so much of their foreign policy in the early 20th century is frankly bizarre to me, and has a ring of politicians and strategists spending more time looking at maps than actually evaluating their strategic position.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Yeah, it's an error on my part. I meant to say that it was intended to be unacceptable. I edited that line a couple of times writing and exactly the wrong thing came out at the end because I still haven't developed a habit of checking what I wrote for errors.

In that case, I apologise.

I can only agree that the Austrians intended the ultimatum was intended to be rejected. It’s worth noting how ineptly the Austrians went about it though. Can you imagine how bad it would look if the ruse had played out successfully? If the Austrians had acted promptly, the Serbians managed to paint themselves as the sponsors of state terror and the Hapsburgs had acted against Belgrade with international sympathy? Then, years later, all these people that knew what was going on let it slip?

 

[Mikey]

In that case, I apologise.

I can only agree that the Austrians intended the ultimatum was intended to be rejected. It’s worth noting how ineptly the Austrians went about it though. Can you imagine how bad it would look if the ruse had played out successfully? If the Austrians had acted promptly, the Serbians managed to paint themselves as the sponsors of state terror and the Hapsburgs had acted against Belgrade with international sympathy? Then, years later, all these people that knew what was going on let it slip?

This kind of makes me wonder what would have happened had Franz Ferdinand survived the attack, maybe especially if his wife still dies, and if he's still hit by the bullet. Move it a few inches towards his arm, say, and the scenario all plays out, but with the victim of the assassination being alive to drive the agenda, and in the process, preparing to become emperor himself.

 

[Keb]

This kind of makes me wonder what would have happened had Franz Ferdinand survived the attack, maybe especially if his wife still dies, and if he's still hit by the bullet. Move it a few inches towards his arm, say, and the scenario all plays out, but with the victim of the assassination being alive to drive the agenda, and in the process, preparing to become emperor himself.

Franz Ferdinand was actually wearing a primitive bulletproof vest made of layered silk, good enough to stop a low-calibre pistol round of the type Gavrilo Princip was using ... the bullet unfortunately struck him in the neck. In fact, the high, rigid collar he was wearing also interfered with efforts to save his life. There's also the fact that Gavrilo admitted to closing his eyes when shooting, there being a gendarme next to him and Gavrilo only running into the motorcade after the earlier assassination attempt (the one with the bomb) failed because he was hungry and went to a specific sandwich place.

Now, Franz Ferdinand was generally opposed to war and if he and his wife survived, he would have argued against it. He believed Austria wasn't ready for warfare and he was right.He was also surprisingly Russophile and viewed Hungary to be his biggest enemy, though his circle also tended to be rather hostile to Italy. But, if his wife dies then it becomes less certain. Franz was infamous for his temper and Sophie was the only person capable of calming him down (she was so supremely effective at it, requiring a touch and a muttered 'Franzi' that bearers of bad news often preferred to meet Franz Ferdinand exclusively while his wife was present to keep him from blowing up). So, without the breaks on, yeah, it is entirely possible that he pushes Austria to go to war immediately.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

This kind of makes me wonder what would have happened had Franz Ferdinand survived the attack, maybe especially if his wife still dies, and if he's still hit by the bullet. Move it a few inches towards his arm, say, and the scenario all plays out, but with the victim of the assassination being alive to drive the agenda, and in the process, preparing to become emperor himself.

It would a slight difference, but not that much, IMHO. FF held no real power, as his Uncle is still alive and the Emperor. The Cabinet aren’t affected by the assassination, they're all still around to make (presumably) largely the same decisions.

Might it make Tisza even more stubborn in his opposition to War? Might there be others that support him if the heir is only wounded rather than killed?

 

[Aghasverov]

A bit late, but to add to this, the following is drawn from Christopher Clarke's book, The Sleepwalkers: How Europe went to war in 1914 which goes into some detail on Serbia's response.



Now, it's important to note that Austria designed the ultimatum to be unacceptable, but the Serbian 'acceptance' such as it was provided a major propaganda coup that made them look like the innocent party in the exchange.

EDIT: Typo correction.

Anyone who has not read the quoted text thoroughly, should. It's one of the best elucidations of the Serbian response that I've ever seen...

 

[BooNZ]

OTOH the consistency by those self interested individuals does point to the almost geographic logic of the position. It is almost as if, after establishing hegemony on the British Isles the government was continually faced with a question of how to achieve maximum influence on the continent at minimum cost. I would actually be interested to know who first came up with the Sir Humphrey quote. I am not sure I have seen anything sum it up before then. It is so articulate it almost has to be something Lynn and Jay heard floating around the public service.

I would assume a more contemporary inspiration, since the shows were in a period where Britain as a whole was re-evaluating its relationship with the continental europe. Divide and rule is a valid strategy, being first mentioned by Philip II of Macedon, but Britain would have not ruled the world for centuries if it only had one play in its playbook.

And yet here they are following a path that fairly accurately follows the traditional British French and Russian foreign policy goals. Strange how when together (and reaching decisions by consensus, obviously) all of these individual concerns balance themselves out to benefit the nation France and Russia.

You're welcome.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

You're welcome.

Don’t do that

 

[BooNZ]

Maybe. This TL butterflies off OTL pretty quickly in the east, even if an offensive mind set rules, the Russians could suffer a OTL Tannenburg style encirclement, or a earlier minor repulse, and start backing away from the frontier.

Tannenburg was lifted from a 20 year old German play book and entirely consistent with the traditional German doctrine of decisive battle as close as possible to available rail heads. Aside from having further resources available, I don't see the Germans changing the game plan with the information available, except maybe moving onto the Russian 1st Army earlier and having the resources available to fully execute and exploit the destruction of the Russian 1st and 2nd Armies.

In this time line, I am assuming the Germans probably deployed west and start shipping one army at at time east, so a few corps at a time arrive in the east, starting mid August. Maybe the August 20th battle of Gumbinnen works for the Germans with an extra corps or two and the Russians get cautious then.

The Russians were committed to fufilling its obligations to France and were working on the assumption a 20% numerical superiority over the Germans would suffice to bring them victory. The German infrastructure could not deploy sufficient forces to intimidate the Russians - at best the Russians simply throw another Russian Army into the mess. Von Stabbs indicated the German rail network could have deployed 5 German armies on the eastern front in two weeks, so usually assume at least 3 German Armies in the vacinity within 3 weeks.

Regardless the Germans get better results if as part of all this they avoid DOWing everybody, no need to DOW Russia right away, unless they DOW Austria, because the Germans can't really advance over the Russian frontier until late August, and no need to DOW the French, let them do it. The British can't come in if no one is at war, gives time to transfer armies to the east, crash buy stuff, bring home merchants, or even secure a favorable diplomatic solution.

I get the impression the German DOW were less about practicalities and more about honor and what not. Even if the Germans DOW the usual suspects, there is not much Britain can do if Belgium remains neutral territory. In my opinion the key advantage of a German east strategy is it effectively surrenders the intiative to the French and Russian forces, which each get slaughtered in ill conceived offensives.

Long term Moscow and Leningrad are far away for the Germans, with a sparse and incompatible rail net, if the Russians can avoid getting crushed in a frontier battle, it seems the Russians would have a better chance of getting better force ratios deeper inside Russia, is it really worth all that?, a favorable diplomatic solution for Germany within a couple of months seems like how this ends up.

I struggle to imagine how the Russians avoid getting crushed or thereafter manage to put up any kind of meaningful military resistence before 1916. Moscow is about 800 miles away and rehabilitating rail at 10 miles a week is an advance/grind of less than two years. If Britain remains neutral, Russia taps out in 1915. If Britain joins, the Russians might hang on until some time in 1916.

 

[BooNZ]

Don’t do that

I'm sorry, but do you believe British diplomacy in the decade preceeding the war to be anything other than a total train wreck. By most measures the British interests were best met by the status quo, yet it ended up aligning itself to a collection of axe grinders.

 

[Aghasverov]

We may need to de-escalate this a notch... I sense an impending CalBear "play the ball, not the man" message soon... far be it for me to be a "voice of reason" about a topic I feel rather strongly about, but you guys both make good points, and I'd hate to see the boot come down on this thread