Cinco de Mayo

[KingSweden24]

"...Parnell's advantage, insofar as there was one, was that he was from a prominent Protestant Anglo-Irish landholding family. He was not some "dirty" tenant farmer, nor was he Catholic. When he spoke, there were many ears at Dublin Castle that listened, even if they later dismissed what he had to say. And more importantly, there were even some sympathetic ears in Whitehall. The Liberals, uncomfortable with the Church of Ireland and supporters of land and franchise reform in all of Britain, viewed the issue of Irish land tenancy as part and parcel of issues where they split with the increasingly ossified Tories. A mass riot on St. Patrick's Day in Cork and street brawls between Orangemen and Republican Brotherhood-affiliated mobs in Ulster had resulted in the deployment of the expanded British Army presence, in support of an increasingly radicalized and aggressive Royal Irish Constabulary, to "areas of minimal government control." The RIC in particular, by 1876, already a gendarmerie in all but name and an auxiliary of British military forces, was the spearpoint of the Carnarvon Cabinet's campaign of terror in the Irish countryside during that spring and summer, with the nearly uniformly-Protestant police force developing a network of spies and informants to turn up not just IRB agents and members, most of whom were utterly nonviolent, but increasingly harassing Land League activists.

It was against this backdrop that Parnell's merger of the Land League with Butt's Home Rule League occurred, combining the activist and constitutional wings of Irish nationalism under the "Irish Parliamentary Party" banner, and tying the issues of land tenancy reform and local rule for Ireland together in one for the first time. The reaction to this development in London was, to say the least, not ebullient..."

- Ireland Unfree

 

[KingSweden24]

"...the most critical problem for Hoffman in the lead-up to the Democratic Convention in St. Louis was that his successes had no substantial political constituencies and his shortfalls had alienated major ones. True to the spirit of his 1872 campaign and his career, he did indeed finally deliver in late 1875 the United States Civil Service Board, an appointed commission that would review all political appointments, theoretically on merit, with some (fairly toothless) legislation from Congress guiding what "merit" meant. The CSB was an important step to the modern civil service and administrative bureaucracy of the United States, one of the most professional and well-regarded in the world today [1], but in the mid-1870s it was viewed in some quarters as "centralism" of the Republican kind, in others as a way to cheat supporters out of patronage, and its supporters were a fairly niche subset of upper-class, do-gooder educated reformists who viewed patronage in the style of Boss Tweed as gauche and, in a form of highbrow elitism, saw civil service reform as a way to curb the influence of the unwashed masses, in particular the Irish. That prevailing view among the gentry class further hamstrung Hoffman, as many of those same elites - particularly in New York - pretended to be so appalled by the Tweed Affair that they defected to the young Liberals, particularly pushing for Governor Samuel Tilden to carry the Liberal banner into that fall's election on the success of "cleaning up the Tweed Ring." Though Hoffman was never implicated in any illegal activity, his once-closeness to the Tweed Ring continued to be broadcast in the New York papers and the Peckham prosecutions continued to produce embarrassing headlines in the crucial state. As such, despite his creditable efforts at reform, his guilt by association with Tweed gave him little credit with reformers in either the Democratic or Liberal parties.

Hoffman further engendered little endearment in the Midwest. His lack of enthusiasm for free silver in the midst of the still-depressed economy, despite returning the US Mint to acceptance of silver at a fairly limited rate, more than offset his sympathy for working laborers, whom he hoped to carve away from the collapsing, increasingly socialist-sounding Republicans. The inciting incident, though, was the case of Freeman vs. Illinois, in which the Davis Court held that under the 14th Amendment, laws banning free blacks from residing within the borders of a state were unconstitutional violations of their privileges and immunities they enjoyed as American citizens. The backlash was fierce in the seven states where such absolute laws were in force and in ten additional states with moderate versions of such laws - 1876 saw the most lynchings in the United States in a decade. The anger at the imposition of "Republican morals" on the entire country by a 7-2 margin with only Clifford and Church (both Democratic appointments) in dissent, was the final straw for the delegates in St. Louis. Rufus Peckham attempted to whip support for the Hoffman ticket at the convention, but the President had at this point gravely alienated the Midwest and West, held out as a stooge of "bankers and n***ers." There was a brief surge for Senator George Pendleton, among the most extreme of the party's reactionary wing; many Hoffman supporters, seeing the writing on the wall, backed Vice President Cox instead, helping deny Pendleton enough of his home state delegation. Hoffman was informed via telegram that he was not going to be renominated and urged his convention manager to see to it that if Cox, whom he had become close friends with, did not get the nomination, to see to it that Pendleton did not either. Cox, who was present in St. Louis, threw the convention into disarray when to make sure that Pendleton did not earn the nomination, cut a deal with supporters of Thomas Hendricks, Governor of Indiana who had moderated in his years in executive office from the more reactionary posture he had held in the Senate in the 1860s. Hendricks emerged on the ninth ballot as the nominee, and was informed of this while lunching at the State Capitol in Indianapolis. The delegates, to provide geographic balance, nearly appointed James Kelly of Oregon to the Vice Presidential spot, but instead went with the surprise choice of Supreme Court Justice Sanford Church of New York, to make sure that that crucial state stayed in the fold out of concerns that Governor Tilden was to easily win the Liberal nomination the following week, which he indeed did..."

- Youth and Vigor: The Presidency of John T. Hoffman

[1] Say what you will about the US government, "well-regarded" is not the term I would use for our bureaucracy at the federal level IOTL

 

[KingSweden24]

"...as Senator Reagan famously remarked, "anyone who knew the man could have foreseen the incompetence of a President Harris." Indeed, it was so - while none of his predecessors as Presidents of the Confederacy had been towering figures, Davis had managed to deliver independence, Forrest had had the sense to be quiet and delegate to trusted lieutenants for the first four years of his shortened Presidency until the potential prize of Cuba wowed him, and Breckinridge was a man so rigorous in his attempts at mastering administrative minutiae it undid him. Not Isham Harris, though, who spent more time throwing cocktail parties in Richmond and enriching himself and his Tennessee Clique, sending port inspectors to harass foreign ships and demanding bribes at the point of guns held by Klansmen from chapters loyal to him. It was only due to the decentralized, weak nature of the Confederate government that he could get away with such to begin with - the planter oligarchy chugged along despite the deepening depression, the poor white tenant farmers continued to grow destitute and clash with one another and state governments did as they pleased, even as foreign investment in the Confederacy declined sharply. Most prominently was North Carolina, which had reelected two time Presidential nominee Zeb Vance to the Governorship. As head of the Conservative Party of North Carolina, he ran the state as a personal fiefdom with rigorous defenses of civil law and a stubborn refusal to engage in any patronage whatsoever. By the time Vance ascended to the Senate in the early 1880s, North Carolina had Dixie's most robust public school system, the port of Wilmington thrived despite the presence of grumpy Harrisite customs officials taking their cut and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill began to emerge as one of the premier law schools in North America..."

- Dixieland

 

[SilentSpaniard]

Nice updates!

It will be interesting: a more realistic President Custer, different from his darkly amusing “evil twin” in What Madness is This?

And looks like there is a storm brewing in Ireland… Surely the French wouldn’t dare to take advantage of that, would they?

The Democratic Convention is interesting too, very detailed. Although, it seems that there is a footnote missing.

The CSB was an important step to the modern civil service and administrative bureaucracy of the United States, one of the most professional and well-regarded in the world today [1]

EDIT - Ninja'd by the author! It’s nice, having news from Dixieland again.

 

[KingSweden24]

"...it was obvious by the hot summer of 1876 that First Minister Santiago Vidaurri's health was in serious decline, and six months before his resignation the following January he deputized members of the Cabinet to carry on without him as he went to native Nuevo Leon to convalesce and hopefully recover. The power vacuum in Mexico City, where Vidaurri had aggressively held sway for nearly a decade, began to swirl with new intrigues. The Emperor refused to sack his most loyal lieutenant and, true to his nature, considered himself above such matters; he was Emperor, and his word went. The key figure in the coming game of musical chairs was Miramon, who had spent six months in an unofficial internal exile "reviewing" military units across the country as Vidaurri hoped to turn down the heat after the Zocalo Stampede. His return to the city on July 17th was met with crowds both cheering and condemning him, and von Benedek remarked that he seemed to be riding into the city like a returning conqueror, a "miniature Napoleon." As for Benedek, he was content to continue to serve in his current role as a military advisor, but had built a substantial power base among emigre nobility from Europe. Crucially, he was in constant correspondence with officials back in the Old World about finding them "opportunities" in the Americas - in particular, he viewed the exiled Bourbons in France as potential bargaining chips for new monarchies to replace planter republics to Mexico's South. The last new player on the scene was retired General Tomas Mejia, who had left the military some years earlier to serve as the Emperor's chief voice in the rubberstamp assembly. Mejia was seen as an obvious choice to succeed Vidaurri, as he was from the Altiplano, part-Native but a Conservative beyond reproach, and quite crucially was not rumored to be bedding the Emperor's wife and had not scattered protestors with armed cavalry during a lavish state dinner. Carlota, for her part, preferred finding a First Minister from outside the capital, perhaps one of the state caudillos, as a transition figure, primarily in order to start influencing power herself and not potentially turn power over to her adopted son, Admiral Salvador de Iturbide, whom she had come to despise. Eventually, her preferred candidate became Pelagio Antonio de Labastida, Mexico's ultraconservative Archbishop..."

- Maximilian of Mexico

 

[KingSweden24]

Nice updates!

It will be interesting: a more realistic President Custer, different from his darkly amusing “evil twin” in What Madness is This?

And looks like there is a storm brewing in Ireland… Surely the French wouldn’t dare to take advantage of that, would they?

The Democratic Convention is interesting too, very detailed. Although, it seems that there is a footnote missing.



EDIT - Ninja'd by the author! It’s nice, having news from Dixieland again.

Corrected that footnote! Thanks for the catch I sometimes sorta speed through these

 

[Nivek]

Maximilian of Mexico

And now Mexico have to experiment austrian like courtly politics...that will be so fun

 

[KingSweden24]

And now Mexico have to experiment austrian like courtly politics...that will be so fun

Yup basically!

 

[KingSweden24]

"...by late 1876, Napoleon IV had consolidated his power enough - and France, being the first nation to emerge from the Great Depression and in an era of optimism and expansion of trade and industry, loved him for it - to present a new, "modern" constitution for the Second Empire, meant to both decentralize power away from Paris to the rural regions under a semi-federal model and thus also defang the Parisian radicalism that so dominated the National Assembly, make conscription equal-opportunity, and create a bicameral Parliament, the lower house indirectly elected by provinces (again, to reward rural Catholic France where the Emperor was held in high regard) and an upper House of Peers. Each of the 18 regions was to have its own budget and elect her own governor-general; the Cabinet was to remain appointed by the Emperor, but make most day-to-day decision making. Only in foreign policy would Napoleon IV's word be absolute, and there there was promise that his Anglophilia and skepticism of Germany would continue the Empire on the path set out by Bazaine over the previous decade. He presented a referendum to the country on this new constitution over protests of some of his opponents in the National Assembly, to be held in the coming spring..."

- The Eaglet Takes Flight: The Reign of Napoleon IV 1874-1905

(The ideas sketched out in this update stem from information I gleaned in a 7 year old thread on Napoleon IV that I will link as my source)

Emperor Napoleon IV?

IOTL, Napoleon IV was killed by the Zulus in 1879, while serving in the British Army. He was twenty-three and had been in exile from France since the fall of the Second Empire. Suppose the Franco-Prussian War never broke out and the Second Empire had never fallen. Napoleon III likely would...

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[KingSweden24]

"...the crises of 1876 began to build; the deposition and suspicious suicide of Sultan Abdulaziz led to one of his courtiers attempting to assassinate a number of Cabinet officers, stopped only just in time by one of the guards in the room [1]. His nephew Murad V sat on the throne only 93 days until his deposition on grounds of mental illness. It seemed that suddenly all at once the optimism of the Tanzimat Reforms and the First Constitution were being stifled, especially as the atrocities in Bulgaria were reported in the West, flagged most aggressively by William Gladstone in the United Kingdom. The world seemed paralyzed when Serbia suddenly declared war on its suzerain, followed the next day by the Principality of Montenegro. Despite their differences, Russia and Austria made a secret agreement to divide the Balkans, viewing the Ottoman collapse as inevitable, and Austria was unconcerned about her French allies protesting so long as they kept their influence in the Levant and, more crucially, Egypt.

Despite Serbia's clear disadvantages against the Ottomans as the fighting started, the popular support for the ideology of Pan-Slavism had begun to affect the normally cautious court of Alexander, and it was now understood in Moscow that Germany, her reinsurance partner, and Austria, her erstwhile rival in the Balkans, would not intervene and indeed may be supportive of Russian expansionism. With the twenty-year anniversary of the Paris Peace Agreement having come and gone, Alexander acquiesced to the views of his Chancellor Gorchakov and began ad-hoc outfitting merchant vessels with cannons, to build a littoral fleet presence in the Black Sea without alerting the Ottomans - or perhaps more crucially, Britain and France - that they were violating the sea's demilitarization..."

- The Gathering Storm: The Prelude to the Eastern Crisis 1856-1876

[1] This is a gigantic butterfly, BTW

 

[KingSweden24]

"...Carnarvon's focus on South African intrigues and crushing Irish nationalism left him blind to the atrocities in Bulgaria, which the Liberals capitalized on and made his government only more unpopular. The Grand Old Man, Gladstone himself, wrote furiously about the Ottoman barbarism and left Britain in a position where it had little choice, in order to keep its focus where Cabinet sought it, to defer to the accelerating Russian war machine. Spies in the Crimea reported of a miniature Black Sea Fleet being reconstituted out of the merchant marine, and the War Ministry reacted with but a shrug. Salisbury, like most others in Cabinet, was indifferent to the Eastern Question, and would rather Russia's eyes be turned towards the Balkans and her Christian minorities whom London empathized with than potentially threaten India via the Great Game in Central Asia. It was Salisbury and Bazaine who intervened to end the brief and inconclusive Serbian War, which returned to the status quo ante bellum in late 1876, but within a year war would break out again..."

- The Age of Questions: Britain in the Gauntlet of Change and Upheaval

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Carnavon really is quite inept. The country is on the verge of open rebellion. Malcolm X was right - people should vote but if they can't vote then the bullet may be the next step.

 

[pathfinder]

went to native Nuevo Leon to convalesce and hopefully recover.

Imagine if he ends up getting back into his old antics as the caudillo of the North. But nah, he's probably a bit too aged for those sorts of shenanigans now.

 

[KingSweden24]

Carnavon really is quite inept. The country is on the verge of open rebellion. Malcolm X was right - people should vote but if they can't vote then the bullet may be the next step.

Granted one of the difficulties with this project is my goal to elevate could-have-been figures to prominence, and there’s understandably little detail on historically obscure figures. Everything Ive turned up on Lord Carnarvon’s experience in the Reform Act debate and Colonial Office OTL suggested he was an aristocratic brat who failed upwards. That’s sort of been my overarching template for extrapolating his Premiership.

Imagine if he ends up getting back into his old antics as the caudillo of the North. But nah, he's probably a bit too aged for those sorts of shenanigans now.

Some ideas of potential local caudillos for the late 70s early 1880s would actually be pretty useful, if you know of any

 

[KingSweden24]

We’re on a quick break here while I’m out of town and start putting together my thoughts on TTL Russo-Turkish War. I’ll cover the 1876 US elections here in a few days.
In the meantime, thoughts comments and feedback are very appreciated!

 

[LordVorKon]

Is Britain going to just let France control the main route to India/Australia? If not, this war could get a lot bigger and uglier.

 

[KingSweden24]

Is Britain going to just let France control the main route to India/Australia? If not, this war could get a lot bigger and uglier.

This is a really difficult position they’re in, isn’t it? You either support Russia and dismember the Ottomans on the off-chance France doesn’t deepen her influence in Egypt/North Africa as a result... or you hope your main rival in Asia loses and that you stay on Nappy 4’s good side.

 

[LordVorKon]

Yeah... France is expanding her navy and has just seized control of the canal. Neither of these things is long-term viable for British interests at this point. Russia might be a threat to British interests in India, if they're not kept distracted by adventures into the Balkans. France is a threat right now.

I'm betting that Carnarvon and Co. can make a deal with Alexander to settle spheres of influence in the east in exchange for a free hand in the Balkans and a Russian military presence on the Black Sea. Granted, Britain also doesn't want Russia to control the Dardanelles, but that's something of a separate issue.

 

[KingSweden24]

Yeah... France is expanding her navy and has just seized control of the canal. Neither of these things is long-term viable for British interests at this point. Russia might be a threat to British interests in India, if they're not kept distracted by adventures into the Balkans. France is a threat right now.

I'm betting that Carnarvon and Co. can make a deal with Alexander to settle spheres of influence in the east in exchange for a free hand in the Balkans and a Russian military presence on the Black Sea. Granted, Britain also doesn't want Russia to control the Dardanelles, but that's something of a separate issue.

Some interesting thoughts!

 

[KingSweden24]

Full Results: US Elections 1876

165 electors needed to win

Thomas Hendricks of Indiana/Sanford Church of New York (Democratic) - 40.5% of the popular vote, 212 electoral votes

Pennsylvania 39
Ohio 29
Missouri 20
Indiana 19
Iowa 14
Michigan 14
Wisconsin 13
New Jersey 12
Maryland 10
California 8
Minnesota 7
West Virginia 6
Kansas 6
Oregon 3
Delaware 3
Nebraska 3
New Mexico 3
Nevada 3

Samuel Tilden of New York/George F. Edmunds of Vermont (Liberal) - 40.4% of the popular vote, 104 electoral votes

New York 47
Illinois 28
Connecticut 8
Maine 8
Vermont 5
New Hampshire 5
Colorado 3

Benjamin Butler of Massachusetts/Zachariah Chandler of Michigan (Republican) - 21 Electoral Votes, 19.1% of the popular vote

Massachusetts 17
Rhode Island 4

1876 Senate Results

A fairly uneventful election for Senators, as no seats were lost by the ruling Democrats and the only switches occurred both from Republicans becoming Liberals during the 44th Congress or being replaced by Liberals as the Republican caucuses collapsed in many state legislatures.

CO: Henry M. Teller APPOINTED and Elected to full term (Liberal Gain)
CO: Jerome B. Chaffee APPOINTED (Liberal Gain)
DE: Eli Saulsbury Re-Elected (Democratic Hold)
IL: John Logan (R) Re-Elected as Liberal (Liberal Gain)
IA: George G. Wright (R) Retired; Samuel Kirkwood (L) ELECTED (Liberal Gain)
KS: David P. Lowe (L) ELECTED (Liberal Gain)
ME: James G. Blaine (L) APPOINTED and elected to full term (Liberal Gain)
MA: George Frisbie Hoar (R) Elected (Republican Hold)
MI: Byron Stout (D) Re-Elected (Democratic Hold)
MN: Henry Hasting Sibley (D) Re-Elected (Democratic Hold)
NE: Experience Estabrook (D) Re-Elected (Democratic Hold)
NH: Aaron Cragin (L) Re-Eelcted (Liberal Hold)
NJ: Joel Parker (D) RETIRED; John R. McPherson (D) ELECTED (Democratic Hold)
NM: Samuel Beach Axtell (D) Re-Elected (Democratic Hold)
OR: James K. Kelly (D) RETIRED; La Fayette Grover (D) ELECTED (Democratic Hold)
RI: Henry B. Anthony (L) Re-Elected (Liberal Hold)
WV: Henry Gossaway Davis (D) Re-Elected (Democratic Hold)

1876 House Results

The Democrats lose 18 seats from their caucus and the Republicans lose 60% of theirs as they are reduced to a mere 20 seats - the Liberal Party of the United States for the first time has more than 100 members of the United States House of Representatives. Liberals do especially well in the Midwest, outside of their traditional heartland.

45th Congress of the United States

Senate: 30D-17L-6R-1AM

President of the Senate: Samuel Cox (D)
Senate President pro tempore: Henry Mower Rice of Minnesota (D)

California
1. Newton Booth (A-M) (1875-)
3. John S. Hager (D) (1873-)

Colorado

2. Henry M. Teller (L) (1876-)
3. Jerome B. Chaffee (L) (1876-)

Connecticut
1. William W. Eaton (D) (1875-)
3. Orris Ferry (L) (1867-)

Delaware
1. Thomas Bayard (D) (1869-)
2. Eli Saulsbury (D) (1871-)

Illinois
2. John Logan (L) (1871-)
3. Richard Oglesby (R) (1873-)

Indiana
1. Joseph E. McDonald (D) (1875-)
3. Daniel Voorhees (D) (1873-)

Iowa
2. Samuel Kirkwood (L) (1877-)
3. William Allison (L) (1873-)

Kansas
2. David P. Lowe (L) (1877-)
3. John Ingalls (R) (1873-)

Maine
1. Hannibal Hamlin (R) (1869-)
2. James G. Blaine (L) (1877-)

Maryland
1. William Pinkney Whyte (D) (1869-)
3. George Dennis (D) (1873-)

Massachusetts
1. Henry Dawes (R) (1875-)
2. George Frisbie Hoar (R) (1877-)

Michigan
1. Isaac Christiancy (L) (1875-)
2. Byron G. Stout (D) (1865-)

Minnesota
1. Henry Mower Rice (D) (185
2. Henry Hastings Sibley (D) (1865-)

Missouri
1. Francis Cockrell (D) (1875-)
3. Lewis Bogy (D) (1873-)

Nebraska
1. Thomas Tipton (L) (1869-)
2. Experience Estabrook (D) (1871-)

Nevada
1. William Sharon (D) (1875-)
3. John P. Jones (D) (1873-)

New Hampshire
2. Aaron Cragin (L) (1865-)
3. Bainbridge Wadleigh (L) (1873-)

New Jersey
1. Theodore Fitz Randolph (D) (1875-)
2. John R. McPherson (D) (1871-)

New Mexico

1. William A. Pile (L) (1875-)
2. Samuel Beach Axtell (D) (1875-)

New York
1. Francis Kernan (D) (1875-)
3. William Evarts (R) (1873-)

Ohio
1. Allen Thurman (D) (1869-)
3. George Pendleton (D) (1873-)

Oregon
2. La Fayette Grover (D) (1871-)
3. James Nesmith (D) (1873-)

Pennsylvania
1. Charles Buckalew (D) (1863-)
3. Asa Parker (D) (1873-)

Rhode Island
1. William Sprague (L) (1863-)
2. Henry B. Anthony (L) (1859-)

Vermont
1. George F. Edmunds (L) (1866-)
3. Justin Morrill (L) (1867-)

West Virginia
1. Joseph Sprigg (D) (1869-)
2. Henry Gassaway Davis (D) (1871-)

Wisconsin
1. James Rood Doolittle (D) (1857-)
3. Matthew Carpenter (D) (1873-)

House: 155D-105L-20R

Speaker of the House: Samuel Marshall of Illinois (D)