German victory at the Battle of Britain

[Anglocalvinist67]

If my post seemed a little short tempered, it's because normally anyone who suggests that Sealion was possible will double, triple and quadruple down when reality is pointed out to them. A lot of the veterans here are sick of banging their heads against the wall with that sort of idiot.

You, on the other hand, are most definitely NOT an idiot.

Thanks! I appreciate that.

It's funny ... you think you know history (history was always one of my favorite and strongest subjects in school and at University); but then it turns out something you took for granted as being true or possible really wasn't!

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Fair enough, I did a brief search and see you are correct. German commanders did not foresee a successful invasion even if the Luftwaffe achieved air superiority; Churchill did not think it could happen; the large/overwhelming majority of military historians share that view. It seems that at MOST the Germans could have landed a first wave but could not have reinforced it, leading to a quick surrender of whatever German forces managed to land.

Edit: And, given that the British knew this, they would not have had an incentive to seek terms with Germany on this basis.

Quick reading and assimilation of material that contradicts first thoughts. I'm genuinely impressed.

As the consensus here has it, the Luftwaffe could have inflicted heavier losses on the RAF. But the end result would still be that SeaLion would not have been launched so the British still feel victorious also. Or at least a draw , which serves as well.

In war games terms the LW could score a marginal victory. Satisfying to the player, but of no use to Hitler in reality.

 

[oldironside]

As the consens6hete has it, the Luftwaffe could have inflicted heavier losses on the RAF. But the end result would still be that SeaLion would not have been launched so the British still feel victorious also. Or at least a draw , which serves as well.

This may seem a little Rumsfeldian, but the Brits won the BoB by not losing, while the Germans lost it by not winning.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Thanks! I appreciate that.

It's funny ... you think you know history (history was always one of my favorite and strongest subjects in school and at University); but then it turns out something you took for granted as being true or possible really wasn't!

The myth* was important at the time to keep British civilians spirit up. And useful to getting sympathy and support from the American government and people.

It's become a cliche now and one that IMHO has harmful effects on British politics. But that should be left to Chat.

There's lots of things in History that are more nuanced and complicated than school children learn. Or even most adults. No country is immune, Ireland has it's own mythology.

* Fairer perhaps to say exaggeration or a legend derived from a kernel of truth

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Lest we forget, Goering came disturbingly close to winning the Battle of Britain as it was. The Luftwaffe was slowly wearing down the RAF by simple attrition. Every source I have read indicates the RAF was literally operating as the old song says "on a wing and a prayer." By the time of the Blitz phase of the Battle there were no reserves left. You had exhausted RAF pilots who were asked to sortie as much as 30 times or more per day, exhausted ground crews, and an air defense system pushed to the limit. All Goering had to do was to continue hammering the air fields and radar stations and he would have been able to temporarily drive the British from the skies of southern England. Of course, this would have ultimately accomplished nothing given the disaster in the making that was Sealion.

However...it occurs to me that if it was Lord Halifax and not Churchill in the Prime Minister's seat there is a reasonable chance that if the Battle of Britain had succeeded in temporarily giving the Luftwaffe air superiority then at this point Halifax might have decided to talk peace terms with Hitler. His reasoning would likely have been - better to deal with Hitler and save what can be saved now then be invaded and forced like the French into whatever settlement the Germans decide on. Remember, we in the present have the blessing of hindsight so that we know how Sealion was doomed to failure. The British did not know this. They only knew they had an army that was still recovering from Dunkirk and that a large force was massing for an invasion in France and Holland. Given Halifax' mindset at the time I could see him capitulate thinking he could "save Britain" by doing so.

One other thing, Monday is Memorial Day for us in the USA. But at this time I want to say a very big

THANK YOU!!!

to those who served in the RAF - the few to whom Britain and the whole world owes so much. Thank you for your courage and your determination. May you always be remembered with honor.

The Luftwaffe was not immune to the same attrition which is why they moved to the Blitz and abandoned any pretence of taking the RAF Head on - mostly due to the unsustainable losses they were suffering

They blinked first!

 

[Ian Hathaway]

For it is written that and BoB thread shall morph seamlessly into a Sealion thread, and you get extra points if you can work German carriers in there as well.

Really wish it wouldn't... many a promising BoB discussion gets all too quickly sidetracked/hijacked by Sealion!!

 

[oldironside]

There's lots of things in History that are more nuanced and complicated than school children learn. Or even most adults.

I would say that everything in history is more nuance and complicated than we can fully understand. As Micheal Frayn put it; "A complete history of the Hundred Years War would be the Hundred Years War."

 

[Alan]

Really wish it wouldn't... many a promising BoB discussion gets all too quickly sidetracked/hijacked by Sealion!!

In this case its unavoidable since the topic is how the Germans could achieve victory in the Battle of Britain, and victory is all about making Sealion possible.

 

[Post]

Would the Germans winning the BoB shorten the war? If they win the BoB, will they launch Sealion? If they do, it will obviously fail, so the Germans will be down 4-10 divisions, a significant part of the KM, lots of barges, and probably a decent number of planes.
In Micheles timeline Barbarossa was delayed a week, which wouldn't have helped. And with Sealion having failed, Stalin would pay more attention to a German buildup, so that wouldn't have helped either.
There might be butterflies in NA and Greece as well.

(This is not offtopic, since one of the questions in the first post is what the consequences would be of Germany winning the BoB).

 

[sonofpegasus]

Thomas Inskip Minister for the co-ordination of defence from 1936-1939 was responsible for making the government policy of putting fighter production over that of bomber aircraft. That with the promotion of RDF (Radar) were two of the pillars that built Fighter Command.

 

[M79]

I'm sure I can come up with a few apeshit crazy scenarios if you wish. I'm just not sure i can keep a straight face when typing them out.

If you want genuine ape**** crazy put Margussen in as Prime Minister if Churchill is rejected and Halifax continues to refuse the position...

 

[McPherson]

Thomas Inskip Minister for the co-ordination of defence from 1936-1939 was responsible for making the government policy of putting fighter production over that of bomber aircraft. That with the promotion of RDF (Radar) were two of the pillars that built Fighter Command.

Learned something new. Day not wasted. Thank you @sonofpegasus.

 

[Dupplin Muir]

However, Churchill "trolled" Hitler by bombing Germany and Hitler responded with the Blitz, which allowed the RAF infrastructure to survive.

I wish this myth would die. The bombing of Berlin was in retaliation for widespread German bombing of Britain. The idea that it was the British who started it was invented by Nazi apologists eager to whitewash Hitler.

 

[spkaca]

Just.....No. Halifax himself admitted that he couldn't govern from the House of Lords. The "Halifax would seek peace" idea is just incredibly overblown.

+1 to this. But to get slightly whimsical, imagine a Halifax-dominated government somehow emerging in summer 1940, and making some half-baked diplomatic efforts that convince Hitler the British are almost ready to give him everything he wants, provided he gives them some encouragement. Being Hitler, the 'encouragement' he hits on is an invasion attempt. Naturally it fails in hilarious ways, losing the Germans several divisions, several important commanders (including Rommel, maybe?), hundreds of aircraft and most of their residual fleet. The loss of the transports & barges also hurts the German economy badly. In fact the losses and humiliation are so great that the Army plotters decide to take Hitler out, and they actually succeed, resulting in a civil war between the Army and Nazi-loyalist elements. Result, Lord Halifax becomes hailed as the Greatest British Patriotic Hero Ever. Later, we get a remarkable number of AH.com threads discussing what Mr. Churchill would have done.

 

[Alanith]

Fair points. The Luftwaffe won the Kanalkampf, which did cause the UK problems of getting supplies unloaded and distributed.

It could dispute control of the air over southern England, south of the Thames and east of the Solent. And perhaps with better intelligence and a more focused strategy gain a measure of superiority for a few weeks there. With RAF fighter squadrons pulled back to airfields north of the Thames and the command and control system disrupted. But not destroyed, only downgraded.

That's not good enough for the USM to be successful. IF it tempts Hitler gave the go ahead it will be a bloody disaster for the KM and German economy. Expensive for the RN too but defeating an invasion is what it's there for. And the morale boost will be tremendous.

That if course is with the starting point of OTL up to the Fall of France.

Honestly I’d question exactly how expensive it’d be for the RN. The Luftwaffe at this time, outside of specialist units, was woefully incompetent at antishipping tasks against warships belonging to the opposite side. Plus it has about five other jobs that also need doing at the same time, precluding any sort of “maximum effort” push. Oh, the RN would lose ships, but they could trade warship losses five to one with the Kriegsmarine and consider it a justifiable win as long as the invasion was stopped.

 

[Geon]

In this case its unavoidable since the topic is how the Germans could achieve victory in the Battle of Britain, and victory is all about making Sealion possible.

As regards that it occurs to me that one other thing the Luftwaffe would have had to have done in order to "win" the Battle of Britain was to attack the RN and continue the pressure on the ports, bombing freighters. The RN could not be ignored and the more ships the Luftwaffe could sink the better. Problem: the Luftwaffe wasn't equipped for this type of warfare as far as I know.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Honestly I’d question exactly how expensive it’d be for the RN. The Luftwaffe at this time, outside of specialist units, was woefully incompetent at antishipping tasks against warships belonging to the opposite side. Plus it has about five other jobs that also need doing at the same time, precluding any sort of “maximum effort” push. Oh, the RN would lose ships, but they could trade warship losses five to one with the Kriegsmarine and consider it a justifiable win as long as the invasion was stopped.

The RN also had the Coastal Forces which was everything from several dozen of the earlier MTBs to armed trawlers and motor boats etc taken up from civilian ownership - a sort of Littoral Naval Militia force if you will - in Sept 1940 they had about 900 vessels.

This force alone would probably ensure any invasion faced defeat!

 

[Cryhavoc101]

As regards that it occurs to me that one other thing the Luftwaffe would have had to have done in order to "win" the Battle of Britain was to attack the RN and continue the pressure on the ports, bombing freighters. The RN could not be ignored and the more ships the Luftwaffe could sink the better. Problem: the Luftwaffe wasn't equipped for this type of warfare as far as I know.

It also had too many other jobs.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I wish this myth would die. The bombing of Berlin was in retaliation for widespread German bombing of Britain. The idea that it was the British who started it was invented by Nazi apologists eager to whitewash Hitler.

I maintain that the greatest product of the Nazis wasn't rockets etc but their properganda - it has endured decades despite the facts being readily available in all the years since!

 

[misterwibble]

It also had too many other jobs.

Yeah. The Luftwaffe in a Sealion scenario would have got into 'broom up the arse' territory.