A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

[Driftless]

The question is whether the British can get someone to surrender who the German Troops will follow....

This is only a half-serious question: if there's no one of real authority willing to be the official surrenderer; would the Entente prop up one of the POW Generals as a strawman authority? Just enough to speed up the laying down of arms?

 

[ngf]

Great update. I do have a few questions:

1. In addition to Klaipeda, are the Soviets also moving into Suwalki (that small section of German-occupied Poland sticking out from East Prussia)?
2. Although the British 2nd and 4th Armies aren't receiving any petrol, I assume that due to the collapsing German opposition they would still be able to move forward at the pace of foot infantry, perhaps some 5-10 miles per day. Would this be correct?
3. Is there any further movement by the Czechoslovaks or Hungarians?
4. Is Reichenau (OB West) reporting to anybody now?? Is he even attempting to maintain control of his forces or is now looking for a personal escape rout?

 

[Wet Coast]

Although the British 2nd and 4th Armies aren't receiving any petrol, I assume that due to the collapsing German opposition they would still be able to move forward at the pace of foot infantry, perhaps some 5-10 miles per day. Would this be correct?

I think the problem with this would be supplies. All of the logistics and support echelons are motorized. While the infantry can walk you still need to bring up rations, water and other consumables and that requires fuel.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

Is Reichenau (OB West) reporting to anybody now?? Is he even attempting to maintain control of his forces or is now looking for a personal escape rout?

.
He died of a heart attack brought on by the stress of his plane having a forced landing OTL about a year after this date. Right at the moment I am sure that he is experiencing stress in plenty.

 

[Salamander]

A Japanese Army/Navy civil war would be incredibly interesting!

It would most definitely be a not-so-civil war and I'm pretty sure the Emperor is the only reason they didn't openly fight each other OTL. Remember Yamamoto was reassigned to the Fleet because junior IJA staff officers were planning to assassinate him. Hell, the real lunatics in the IJA WERE the junior staff officers; they were perfectly willing to assassinate members of their own general staff for thinking about peace.

 

[pdf27]

just as long as they aren’t Morris dancers then everything will be fine 😎

Due to the rationing situation they aren't carrying black puddings, so they aren't regarded as a threat but the soldiers are still keeping a wary eye on them and noticing them. It's lots of individual deserters rather than gangs of them at the moment - essentially they just want to go home, and that sort of suits everyone involved.

Dear God in heaven, please, for the love of all that is holy, do this!!!

You caught me out. This whole timeline has just been a setup to make it plausible.

A Japanese Army/Navy civil war would be incredibly interesting!

To be honest I'm a little bit surprised it never came to it in OTL, but they managed to get a compromise that everyone could just about live with. Here, with significantly more stress on them there simply isn't a compromise that everyone can accept to be had.

So the Danes basically spend a few weeks getting back to Peace at home as best as they can and then look around to see what's going on in the world. And by that point, everyone except the SS nuts will be done. I was thinking of supplying British Forces in Poland by sea in the Baltic rather than across Germany, though once the rails get fixed, it won't be *that* advantageous.

Pretty much. Opening up the Baltic exits will take time, probably more time than the war has left to run. It's a priority, but there is a lot to do and other ways to get Petrol to the front lines. There is also an issue that north-south communications within Germany are pretty minimal right now - they need major work to get going again, so doing so would only allow you to supply a force along the Baltic coast.

So basically in Poland, the Germans are defending themselves long enough so that they can surrender to the British.

Or French, or Hungarians. They aren't picky, there are just too many of them who are aware of the atrocities committed in Poland and don't feel safe surrendering to the Home Army.

Prague being closer to Romanian Oil?

Prague being just off the Elbe, the valley of which is their main supply route. This whole campaign is 99% driven by logistics.

This is only a half-serious question: if there's no one of real authority willing to be the official surrenderer; would the Entente prop up one of the POW Generals as a strawman authority? Just enough to speed up the laying down of arms?

Doubt it. They'd most likely simply declare that Germany no longer existed and accept surrenders from individual lower-level commanders of those under their command.

Great update. I do have a few questions:

1. In addition to Klaipeda, are the Soviets also moving into Suwalki (that small section of German-occupied Poland sticking out from East Prussia)?
2. Although the British 2nd and 4th Armies aren't receiving any petrol, I assume that due to the collapsing German opposition they would still be able to move forward at the pace of foot infantry, perhaps some 5-10 miles per day. Would this be correct?
3. Is there any further movement by the Czechoslovaks or Hungarians?
4. Is Reichenau (OB West) reporting to anybody now?? Is he even attempting to maintain control of his forces or is now looking for a personal escape rout?

1. Nope. Stalin is playing things cautious here.
2. Not unless there is something worthwhile in front of them - they can basically push forward with what's in their packs, so they're going to be very hungry without petrol to run the trucks. I'm assuming that they're effectively stalled until the petrol situation improves in a week or two.
3. Czechs are stalled, Hungarians are slowly expanding in southern Poland but that's it.
4. Reichenau is probably drinking the good schnapps before the French arrive and confiscate it. There is essentially nothing he can do at this point, and he knows it

I think the problem with this would be supplies. All of the logistics and support echelons are motorized. While the infantry can walk you still need to bring up rations, water and other consumables and that requires fuel.

Correct. They've essentially been told to hold in place until the ancestors of the Really Large Corps (RCT, etc.) can get the petrol supply sorted out.

He died of a heart attack brought on by the stress of his plane having a forced landing OTL about a year after this date. Right at the moment I am sure that he is experiencing stress in plenty.

I suspect he's past that now - he's a commander without a command and without really a war to fight by this stage. Now the orders have probably stopped coming from Berlin I'm envisaging that his stress levels will actually be rather lower since he know's it's all over.

It would most definitely be a not-so-civil war and I'm pretty sure the Emperor is the only reason they didn't openly fight each other OTL. Remember Yamamoto was reassigned to the Fleet because junior IJA staff officers were planning to assassinate him. Hell, the real lunatics in the IJA WERE the junior staff officers; they were perfectly willing to assassinate members of their own general staff for thinking about peace.

Ultimately I think any civil war would be over who gets to control the Emperor, which effectively means Tokyo. That makes things interesting!

 

[Salamander]

Ultimately I think any civil war would be over who gets to control the Emperor, which effectively means Tokyo. That makes things interesting!

I believe that nearly occurred OTL as there was (might have been? *) a failed attempt by the aforementioned lunatic junior IJA staff officers to seize the Emperor in order "to prevent the peace faction from forcing the Emperor into surrendering". And it wouldn't have been the first time Japan's warlords had pulled a stunt like that either.

*Vaguely remember reading something to that effect in a history book on the Pacific campaign, can't remember which one though.

 

[Court Jester]

The beggining of the end ! Great post !

More like end of the end.

 

[naraht]

Pretty much. Opening up the Baltic exits will take time, probably more time than the war has left to run. It's a priority, but there is a lot to do and other ways to get Petrol to the front lines. There is also an issue that north-south communications within Germany are pretty minimal right now - they need major work to get going again, so doing so would only allow you to supply a force along the Baltic coast.


Or French, or Hungarians. They aren't picky, there are just too many of them who are aware of the atrocities committed in Poland and don't feel safe surrendering to the Home Army.


Prague being just off the Elbe, the valley of which is their main supply route. This whole campaign is 99% driven by logistics.

Ultimately I think any civil war would be over who gets to control the Emperor, which effectively means Tokyo. That makes things interesting!

So opening the Baltic is a priority not for defeating the Germans in Poland, but rather for feeding the Poles once they get there.

Be surprised if the French get to Poland, at least before this turns into a Humanitarian Mission.

Finally using the German river barges for what they were intended!!! However, I'm sure the Entente would be willing to pay good prices for Romanian Oil, if they can get access to it before it becomes irrelevant.

I don't know who the various powers would like to see win an IJA/IJN civil war. The IJA winning could wreck the IJN leadership and thus the effectiveness of the IJN, but OTOH, the IJN would likely be more willing to keep peace with the world. So the question is do various world powers want a (relatively) peaceful effective Japanese Navy or a screwed up one wanting war? Note, I don't think that support for either side is likely to get much beyond internal discussions. The US and Entente won't end up at war because each has given military support to a different side.

 

[pdf27]

I believe that nearly occurred OTL as there was (might have been? *) a failed attempt by the aforementioned lunatic junior IJA staff officers to seize the Emperor in order "to prevent the peace faction from forcing the Emperor into surrendering". And it wouldn't have been the first time Japan's warlords had pulled a stunt like that either.

Kyūjō incident - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So opening the Baltic is a priority not for defeating the Germans in Poland, but rather for feeding the Poles once they get there.

Poles, Germans, supporting the Union, etc. Fundamentally it's all about a return to normality.

Be surprised if the French get to Poland, at least before this turns into a Humanitarian Mission.

They're really in the wrong place.

However, I'm sure the Entente would be willing to pay good prices for Romanian Oil, if they can get access to it before it becomes irrelevant.

They've been buying it all along, to keep it out of German hands. The Mediterranean and Black Sea are both still fully open and have been throughout, so exporting it to world markets is pretty easy.

I don't know who the various powers would like to see win an IJA/IJN civil war. The IJA winning could wreck the IJN leadership and thus the effectiveness of the IJN, but OTOH, the IJN would likely be more willing to keep peace with the world. So the question is do various world powers want a (relatively) peaceful effective Japanese Navy or a screwed up one wanting war? Note, I don't think that support for either side is likely to get much beyond internal discussions. The US and Entente won't end up at war because each has given military support to a different side.

I doubt that anybody would want to see a winner.

 

[Maperseguir]

Pdf, I've been meaning to ask you about that for a while, and I haven't found many references to it during my re-read of the thread, so - would you care to tell us about the way you write?

I understand you sketched a vague outline of the TL at the beginning, then filled up the blanks. But how big were those "blanks"? For instance, at some point (years ago) you mentioned you had not made up your mind about Japan's path - so did you have a detailed, "determinist" path in mind for things like the war in Europe, or did you make major alterations to the TL as is progressed?

At some point you mentioned running a detailed simulation, for the 1940 US election - do you do this every time? Do you wargame entire campaigns, or smaller engagements? Or do you write the military actions as you need them to go?

Your TL, overall, has struck me a lot as very rigorous, as an example of a true counterfactual ran within carefully determined parameters and which can yield very interesting teachings about OTL. That's why I am asking these questions : you are obviously not writing purely according to your fantasies and have other rules than "the most colourful", but how exactly do you do it?

 

[pdf27]

Pdf, I've been meaning to ask you about that for a while, and I haven't found many references to it during my re-read of the thread, so - would you care to tell us about the way you write?

I understand you sketched a vague outline of the TL at the beginning, then filled up the blanks. But how big were those "blanks"? For instance, at some point (years ago) you mentioned you had not made up your mind about Japan's path - so did you have a detailed, "determinist" path in mind for things like the war in Europe, or did you make major alterations to the TL as is progressed?

At some point you mentioned running a detailed simulation, for the 1940 US election - do you do this every time? Do you wargame entire campaigns, or smaller engagements? Or do you write the military actions as you need them to go?

Your TL, overall, has struck me a lot as very rigorous, as an example of a true counterfactual ran within carefully determined parameters and which can yield very interesting teachings about OTL. That's why I am asking these questions : you are obviously not writing purely according to your fantasies and have other rules than "the most colourful", but how exactly do you do it?

This isn't an easy question to answer, so apologies if it's a bit disjointed/unclear.

• Everything is written in a single Word file, and anything posted on here is a copy/paste from it.
• It all started back in 2013 when I was stuck at home with a broken collarbone, and was trying to answer the question of what would happen if the Battle of France went worse for the Germans. At the time, most work on here was asking the opposite question, although some (notably Happy and Glorious and The Whale Has Wings, both of which this timeline owes a lot to) had started looking at Naval PODs.
• I'm an engineer, and so am very accustomed to asking "what if" questions and then treating them in a very rigorous way and following the way the evidence takes me. That comes through in this timeline in multiple ways - notably the way technological development differs from OTL. In fact, in a lot of ways this is a technological-logistical timeline with battles overlaid onto it.
• I tend to write about the development of a story arc (for instance nuclear weapons) over an extended period of time, rather than doing the first bit and then updating it later. This is one reason that updates tend to be so few and far between - I've often written quite a lot that isn't ready for publication because it's a long way in the future. Essentially I find it much easier to fully examine the implications of a particular decision through ~50 years than to write sequentially.
• Some big decisions get taken early, but they follow on from the fundamentals. For instance:
  • If things go wrong for the Germans in 1940 with the Battle of France, they're in a lot of trouble - to the extent that they had warehouses full of shells without copper driving bands for lack of raw material. Losing France was cataclysmic for the Allies - not capturing it is equally awful for the Germans by comparison with OTL.
  • Barbarossa isn't happening until the Germans are safe in the West, and the US is substantially less likely than even OTL to enter the war.
  • The war isn't going to be won fast - the British really aren't mobilised and the French are in a mess, so the Germans need to be ground down. That'll take you well into 1941. However, since the Entente are getting stronger fast while the Germans are getting weaker when the collapse comes it will be very fast.
  • The British will still pursue nuclear weapons.
  • Stalin is a cautious opportunist as OTL.
• I had originally written the Japanese as entering the war more or less following OTL timing, but only against the British and French (timing is largely driven by the Monsoon). However, I eventually deleted it simply because even the Japanese could see that it was a moronic idea by the time we got there. Essentially all the "future" stuff I've written gets reviewed for consistency when the timeline gets to that point, and reviewed as necessary.
• There are two determinist points in the entire story, everything else is me following what I think would happen as accurately as I can:
  • The way the German spearheads were encircled around Paris. This was the actual POD in story terms - the previous changes to @ were essentially used to set this up. I've always felt it's contrived but plausible, and to me it is a bit different to the rest of the story as a result.
  • The fate of Adolf Hitler. It's an idea I had a long time ago, and which I just had to put into the story. I don't think it fundamentally changes the plot.
• I don't wargame anything, but I do occasionally do some modelling. The 1940 US election was one such, mostly because there was a lot of debate in the threat about it at the time which struck me as quite partisan and not well informed. The British electrical generation system for the next 50 years is another such, largely because it is so closely tied to the nuclear weapons programmes.
• Whenever a character is making decisions, I try so far as possible to make them the decision that the person in question would make in the circumstances. This includes someone with imperfect information under a lot of pressure making bad decisions - IMHO any timeline not allowing for this is by nature very unrealistic. In so far as I can, I exclude all knowledge of future events from this, even if it forces me to do major rewrites.

 

[Maperseguir]

Thank you! It's rather clear actually, and very interesting. Especially the idea of running/writing separate arcs for separate developments, then checking them against each other.

 

[naraht]

Poles, Germans, supporting the Union, etc. Fundamentally it's all about a return to normality.


They're really in the wrong place.


They've been buying it all along, to keep it out of German hands. The Mediterranean and Black Sea are both still fully open and have been throughout, so exporting it to world markets is pretty easy.


I doubt that anybody would want to see a winner.

True, but the remaining Poland is a lot farther from normality than any other country on the side of the Entente.

Especially with the British going up the Elbe to Prague. Britain gets to help Poland, France gets Austria. I meant that you *might* see some specialized French troops (the French equivalent of the US Army Corps of Engineers???) helping out in Poland as part of the Humanitarian effort once all of the fighting has stopped.

Yeah, but the question is whether British efforts in southern Poland can be better supplied directly from Romania without going the long way round. The *money* advantage of the Entente over the Germans was *significant* in many ways...

*Eventually* someone will win between the IJA and the IJN. As tricky as the question of helping one side or the other is the question of trying to prelong the fight.

Oh, another question, how long until that wonderful railroad that was built between Free Norway and Sweden becomes obsolete?

 

[pengolodh_sc]

Oh, another question, how long until that wonderful railroad that was built between Free Norway and Sweden becomes obsolete?

Why would it be obsolete? It's not like it was a new railroad, anyway - it was a double-tracking of an existing railroad. In @, the railroad between Kiruna and Narvik is still in heavy use today.

 

[Eric S. Raymond]

Dear God in heaven, please, for the love of all that is holy, do this!!!

+1. Actually, +1000.

 

[Eric S. Raymond]

So the question is do various world powers want a (relatively) peaceful effective Japanese Navy or a screwed up one wanting war?

pdf27 has already said "I doubt that anybody would want to see a winner." which is both eminently sensible and Word of God for this timeline. Let 'em chop each other into chutney!

However, I note that if the Entente and/or the US must pick a winner in the civil war, they'll want it to be the IJN. Reason: an insane enemy is a dangerously unpredictable enemy. You'd much rather deal with a foe whose responses you understand and can plan against...and while I won't say the IJA is fanatic nutjobs all the way down that is close enough to true to be determinative.

 

[Maperseguir]

If a Japanese civil war happens (and I'm quite sure pdf has used red herrings before), the great powers' attitude will be driven not only by such cold calculations, but also by their representations of what is happening and by their capabilities.

First, I am decidedly unsure they will draw such a sharp line between the IJA and the IJN. We on here have decided that the IJA were the crazy ones and the IJN the reasonnable ones, but this is largely because we have Word of God on this, which allow us to see through their calculations and cast them in those roles. But from the GPs' standpoint when the first shot get fired, it wont be so easy. The situation, at least in the beginning, will be massively confusing - it's not like Yamamoto will send a cable to Washington saying "look it up on Althistory.com", opening direct conducts of communication will take a while, getting reliable info even more so. The actors will be stuck on their preexisting representations of the IJN and the IJA. For the average American, it will probably just be "a bunch of Japs shooting each others". For Stalin, it will be a trap and he will probably lose three months trying to get ahead of a non-existent capitalist plot before deciding on a course of action (like he did in Spain). The idea of helping the IJN will sound about as reasonable as funding a retirement home for man-eating sharks to most westerners. There might even be significant dissensions within the Entente - for Britain, the Far East is vastly more important than it is for France.

Second, we have to keep in mind that the GP can do, well, things, but not anything. For instance, a Soviet direct intervention is ASB until the IJN get severly mauled; the Entente has the sea power to bear, but not the land power that far away from Europe; the US has in theory the most hard power on theater, but it will be hard, hard, to sell a direct intervention to the public (until the IJA decides to do their own Pearl Harbour. I can definitely a "day of infamy" speech after someone in the Kwantung army has 70 American missionaries in China hanged.). So they each have a range of options, from economic sanctions to all-in, but their willingness to resort to the most complicated and costly options will be depending a lot on their assessment of the situation. For instance, a british direct intervention is highly unlikely in the beginning, but if the IJA occupies HK it becomes a no-brainer at least until HK is secured.

In all, I think a lot of the actors' attitude towards the belligerents will be shaped by a relatively small number of events in a very short time. If nothing happened and the Japanese just shot each other quietly for a few months, à la phoney war, then sure, the GP would quietly make their calculations; but it is much more likely imho that there will be "incidents" - big ones. What happens if foreign nationals in Japan are harmed during the fighting? If the IJN manages to get the emperor to do their PR? If the IJA in China walks into HK, the concessions or KCW? If some idiots decide that dragging in the US is the best idea to defeat the IJN or force them to unite in a foreign war? In all, a lot of things can happen that would either confirm the GP actors' preconceptions or allow them to frame either side as the baddies and spare them the trouble of trying to figure it out through the FOW. For the public, and to some extent for deciders, they will determine which options are "feasible", "necessary" and "out of the question". So, instead of trying to calculate objectively which outcome of the war would suit the GP best, we have to try and figure out what the Japanese factions will do and how it will shape the GP's fluid assessment of the situation.

 

[dmg86]

Not to mention the lower and mid-level IJN officers were becoming nearly as radical as their counterparts in the Army. Add in the issue that most of the civilian leadership who tried to moderate Japan's policies were discredited and that the army position had broad support. Basically most of the people in goverment favored facing the west it was a matter of tactics and timing.

 

[Karelian]

Seeing the Seelöwe Heights occupied without a fight (even when the enemy is coming from the West) is a tell-tale sign that the game has long since been over for the Nazis. The Union must be feeling really nervous right now when the Soviets are again moving the border posts in Eastern Europe.