A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

[Orcbuster]

It makes sense for the smaller members of the Entente to contribute forces without taking on the burden of administering an entire sector.

A small danish sector in schlesvig holstein makes sense from a geographic, demographic and historical perspective. As in OTL there will be a substantial german war refugee population in denmark (260000 OTL, unlikely to be that much ITTL but still substantial) that will need to be relocated back to germany and as per OTL the danes are unlikely to do things differently and that means that they will want to have full control over the process.

Difference between norway and denmark here is thus that denmark wants a certain degree of control over their neighbour and the norwegians do not want to waste troops that will make up the bulk of their new army so far from their own borders, and the british being short on hands are willing to give it to anyone who is willing.

 

[pjmidd]

My take is that Poland is going not to insist on an occupation zone , its going to demand annexation of East Prussia , Danzig and probably the Oder-Neisse line. Bit like France in 1918, its in the never again, defensible borders mode. As per OTL , given what the German's have done, the ethnic Germans are going to be told to go back to Germany ( hopefully not as brutally as OTL ). Allies will probably go along with it as the need for as strong a Poland as possible is , in military terms , a far better option than any German ones.

Given ITTL Poland is the key frontier state/battlefield for the Cold War, a lot of what was done to build up Germany OTL just will not happen, Poland will get the aid instead ( with lessor amounts to the other ITTL free Eastern European states. ). Germany as an export led leviathan is not likely to occur, its per capita GDP will be lower and Poland, followed by Eastern Europe a lot higher.

 

[ngf]

I was thinking of a Norwegian rather than a Danish zone - not having actually fought in the war the Danes probably won’t be given a formal zone, although they might end up cutting a deal with the Norwegians.

If that is the case, Mecklenburg rather than Schleswig-Holstein might be a better choice for a Norwegian sector, assuming of course that they have the resources to manage it.

 

[Orcbuster]

If that is the case, Mecklenburg rather than Schleswig-Holstein might be a better choice for a Norwegian sector, assuming of course that they have the resources to manage it.

They do not. British wanted 12000 per contigent for this OTL, Norway could barely do 4000 per year for 8 years. Its not a matter of equipment and supplies, but one of manpower and political will in norway both of which will be lacking. Tradeoff is that Britain or france reequip the norwegian army in return for this contingent.

 

[ngf]

They do not. British wanted 12000 per contigent for this OTL, Norway could barely do 4000 per year for 8 years. Its not a matter of equipment and supplies, but one of manpower and political will in norway both of which will be lacking. Tradeoff is that Britain or france reequip the norwegian army in return for this contingent.

Good information. It appears then the future lies in a Norwegian contingent in the British sector. This does lead to question of the burden on the British and the French as their sectors will be much larger than iOTL. Even if they can get the Germans to pay for it, it will create a large manpower burden, at least initially.

 

[Orcbuster]

Good information. It appears then the future lies in a Norwegian contingent in the British sector. This does lead to question of the burden on the British and the French as their sectors will be much larger than iOTL. Even if they can get the Germans to pay for it, it will create a large manpower burden, at least initially.

Poland and Czechoslovakia seems like the obvious answer, perhaps even italy if given incentives. Again, this will likely be something that britain and france will throw at anyone that is willing, not a boon to the victors.

 

[Belschaft]

Poland and Czechoslovakia seems like the obvious answer, perhaps even italy if given incentives. Again, this will likely be something that britain and france will throw at anyone that is willing, not a boon to the victors.

The Poles will have their hands full taking control of their newly "recovered" territories, and the Czech-Slovak's have a country to rebuild. Both will also have plenty of problems dealing with their German minorities, and with expulsion being the likely solution giving them an occupation zone full of angry German refugees is a terrible idea. Poland also has a border with the USSR to fortify and garrison.

Italy, being blatantly opportunistic and not at all trusted, has no chance of getting any occupation zone larger than the Austrian territory they hold when the French reach that frontline. The Allies will not want Mussolini playing silly buggers and encouraging a "properly" fascist state in any part of Germany.

The occupation is thus going to have to be a primarily Anglo-French affair, with contingents from Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark.

Considering that both Britain and France are going to have ongoing colonial commitments demanding their best soldiers I think we might see lots of use of troops from Africa as German garrisons, as a relatively low risk deployment where there is little risk of them going "native".

 

[Orcbuster]

The Poles will have their hands full taking control of their newly "recovered" territories, and the Czech-Slovak's have a country to rebuild. Both will also have plenty of problems dealing with their German minorities, and with expulsion being the likely solution giving them an occupation zone full of angry German refugees is a terrible idea. Poland also has a border with the USSR to fortify and garrison.

Italy, being blatantly opportunistic and not at all trusted, has no chance of getting any occupation zone larger than the Austrian territory they hold when the French reach that frontline. The Allies will not want Mussolini playing silly buggers and encouraging a "properly" fascist state in any part of Germany.

The occupation is thus going to have to be a primarily Anglo-French affair, with contingents from Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark.

Considering that both Britain and France are going to have ongoing colonial commitments demanding their best soldiers I think we might see lots of use of troops from Africa as German garrisons, as a relatively low risk deployment where there is little risk of them going "native".

German refugee population is going to do as it did OTL and suck it up, they will have enough issues eeking out a living. Poland and CZSL are going to want to keep germany in check and will have to demonstrate who is in charge in the new order. So they playing a significant role in the occupation and oversight makes a lot of sense in my mind.

Again France and Britain will have a major manpower issue in the future and using colonial troops for occupation duties are putting it mildly a bad option to not cause trouble after the memory of the black horror on the rhine still fresh in memory as a propaganda problem for the enrente not to mention it will likely further cement racist sentiments in europe in general

 

[Driftless]

Historically, didn't a big number of the East Prussian population run west as the Soviet Armies got closer? That's unlikely to happen ITL, so what happens to those folks if the Poles are in charge? There's almost assuredly going to be some retaliation for the treatment of Poles by the SS.

 

[Orcbuster]

Historically, didn't a big number of the East Prussian population run west as the Soviet Armies got closer? That's unlikely to happen ITL, so what happens to those folks if the Poles are in charge? There's almost assuredly going to be some retaliation for the treatment of Poles by the SS.

Something akin to the OTL expulsion deathmarches seems likely yes. perhaps not as bad as 500000+dead but will not be pretty.

 

[Paulo the Limey]

after the memory of the black horror on the rhine still fresh in memory

What is this thing that you speak of? You refer to it in factual terms, so I’m assuming it is a thing that actually happened?

 

[Orcbuster]

What is this thing that you speak of? You refer to it in factual terms, so I’m assuming it is a thing that actually happened?

It was a thing that people believed happened which would have been enough.

 

[Chris S]

It makes sense for the smaller members of the Entente to contribute forces without taking on the burden of administering an entire sector.

Well in OTL the smaller nations tended to have sectors within the zones (like the Canadian sector in the British zone). I did a series of maps of them in the OTL map thread some time back. I can look them up and post the link later.

 

[ngf]

Well in OTL the smaller nations tended to have sectors within the zones (like the Canadian sector in the British zone). I did a series of maps of them in the OTL map thread some time back. I can look them up and post the link later.

Please do, I haven’t seen that anywhere else. I’m constantly amazed by the amount of specialized knowledge people on this forum have.

 

[Chris S]

Please do, I haven’t seen that anywhere else. I’m constantly amazed by the amount of specialized knowledge people on this forum have.

Here we go: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...eline-maps-thread.26295/page-183#post-9968940

It includes the Danish, Norwegian, Belgian, Canadian, Luxembourgish and Polish sectors within the four official zones and shows the changes over time including the plans from 1943.

I think your zones proposals in option C is about right. The original planned 3 zones were basically equal in population as the occupying powers intended to share the responsibilities of governing the population equally.

I think the Danish and Norwegian sectors in Schleswig-Holstein were intentionally structured so that the Norwegians were in the north between Denmark and the Danish sector. In fact I think the Danes were originally not placed in Schleswig-Holstein so as to allay thoughts and concerns that SH was going to be transferred to Denmark.

The post itself should have a link to some older posts with more textual info such as on the Canadian Army Occupation Force's sub-zone/sector.

This TLs equivalent of the CAOF suboxone might be akin to the British Commonwealth Occupation Force (BCOF) zone in Japan where a Canadian commander would be in charge of Commonwealth units (other than the main British force) though I expect any New Zealander and Australian units wouldn't stay more than a year so that it would become a purely Canadian venture for maybe another year or two. Alternatively the NZ and Aus United could be scattered throughout the British zone and be under local commanders.

 

[Salamander]

Here we go: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...eline-maps-thread.26295/page-183#post-9968940

It includes the Danish, Norwegian, Belgian, Canadian, Luxembourgish and Polish sectors within the four official zones and shows the changes over time including the plans from 1943.

I think your zones proposals in option C is about right. The original planned 3 zones were basically equal in population as the occupying powers intended to share the responsibilities of governing the population equally.

I think the Danish and Norwegian sectors in Schleswig-Holstein were intentionally structured so that the Norwegians were in the north between Denmark and the Danish sector. In fact I think the Danes were originally not placed in Schleswig-Holstein so as to allay thoughts and concerns that SH was going to be transferred to Denmark.

The post itself should have a link to some older posts with more textual info such as on the Canadian Army Occupation Force's sub-zone/sector.

This TLs equivalent of the CAOF suboxone might be akin to the British Commonwealth Occupation Force (BCOF) zone in Japan where a Canadian commander would be in charge of Commonwealth units (other than the main British force) though I expect any New Zealander and Australian units wouldn't stay more than a year so that it would become a purely Canadian venture for maybe another year or two. Alternatively the NZ and Aus United could be scattered throughout the British zone and be under local commanders.

Yes! That's more like it. History tends to forget the little guys, usually by lumping them in with a bigger neighbour/coalition partner. Looking at you, Britain (& Australia).

 

[MarshalofMontival]

The big butterfly that hasn't been mentioned yet for the post-war situation in Europe is that the USA isn't involved. Without that 800-pound gorilla in their corner, any confrontation with the USSR becomes a lot more dicey for the Entente, especially if they don't have a nuclear advantage. I'm not sure if Stalin would try to push his luck once he got the Red Army rebuilt from the purges and from stripping it of motor transport to prop up the Germans, but he'd probably be more likely to attempt 'foreign adventures' if the only opponents are the European powers without the backing of a fully armed and operational USA. The Entente alone the Red Army can probably handle, especially if they can get some serious training under their belt after they rebuild the officer corps. The Entente plus the USA, much less likely. Of course if nukes become involved then all bets are off, but until they do, then the European border of the USSR is probably going to be the most dangerous place in the world.

 

[Orry]

Stalin is v unlikely to seek a conflict with the victorious western powers its not his play style

Back stabbing and bullying weaker powers is one thing but he got his fingers burned by the Finns he is not going to take on the two super powers of that time.

America is only a potential super power without the boost of WW2

France and the UK are not defeated or bankrupt powers. That does not mean they could steam roller the Soviets but the Soviets are not able to steam roller them either.

 

[duckie]

Stalin is v unlikely to seek a conflict with the victorious western powers its not his play style

Back stabbing and bullying weaker powers is one thing but he got his fingers burned by the Finns he is not going to take on the two super powers of that time.

America is only a potential super power without the boost of WW2

France and the UK are not defeated or bankrupt powers. That does not mean they could steam roller the Soviets but the Soviets are not able to steam roller them either.

It also makes for a more stable situation, in OTL, Stalin feared that the USA would use Europa as an staging area too attack Russia and Russia lacked the means to attack the USA Mainland directly. Here he knows he has a level playing field and can take a more "waiting" stance and try to grab some low hanging fruit, if the situation is just right for him.

 

[Tanc49]

Here this logic is further strengthened since the colonial empires have remained mostly intact and quiescent during the war, and indeed have probably grown significantly in their economic ties to the mainland, with the disruption of traditional resource sources, and with much more in the way of shipping intact as compared to OTL during WW2. Now at some point it will come to be inevitably the case that Germany will have to be reintegrated into the European economic scene, but the greater strength of the imperial and colonialist myth will provide a seemingly tempting alternative to rehabilitation for an extremely dangerous potential military powerhouse, and this will retard the political consensus emerging for accordance on Germany's return to economic powerhouse status for some time.

I'd wager that the fact those empires are still there and more stable means there's less of an incentive to fully rebuild Germany. Since they get wealth from the Empire and can trade within their zones, especially if it's a Franco-British Commonwealth, Germany is just way less important.
It just needs to produce enough to feed the occupying armies and not starve. It shouldn't be in a dire state but it clearly doesn't need any form of high tech sector.
It needs some basic manufactures, probably in the food processing sector. That way it gets wealth, becomes Europe's granary with some industrial base preventing misery and communism, but doesn't create anything that can be used for war.
This is especially true if the machines and maintenance companies are based abroad, kinda like SAP is a German company nowadays.

It both reintegrates and castrate Germany for the foreseeable future while contributing to the occupation