Deleted member 94680
Plenty of other companies and countries have experience in exploitation of oil fields - it was by no means an exclusively American industry.
Japan discovers Daqing oil fields in 1935 - how does it change their foreign policy?
- Thread starter M79
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Plenty of other companies and countries have experience in exploitation of oil fields - it was by no means an exclusively American industry.
History Learner
Banned
If you're referring to the predecessor of the Tri-Cone Bit, the Bi-Cone, then Japan had those since about WWI. As for the Tri-Cone bit, according to the Chinese themselves they didn't get those until 1984.
1) Established fields where the test wells have already been drilled. The Japanese knew exactly where the oil was. Until the test wells are drilled you don't know the size of the field and where the oil is located.
2)Where the pipelines were already laid. Pipelines take a long time to lay and are harder to destroy. They are often buried for a variety of reasons.
3) The land was already cleared so no time needed to be spent chopping down trees, ripping down trees etc.
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He didn't say it was an exclusively American industry , just that it was the most developed there , with the most experienced workers and the best equipment.
Deleted member 94680
No, he said anyone other than the Americans will take more than 10 years to develop a drill site. That’s more than a little bit misleading and not quite the same as the most developed with most experienced workers
Admiral Fischer
Banned
It was the Japanese government who continuously expressed their hostility towards the Allies and they even signed the Tripartite Pact to publicly declare their allegiance to the Axis powers in Europe. In turn, the Allies had every reason to block the Japanese from acquiring resources and expanding its reach, that's why America instituted embargo, and that's why the Netherlands refused the 1940 Japanese demands for the so-called 13 products including castor, quinine, rubber, tin, nickel, bauxite, manganese, chromium, and others. Which would create exactly the same well-known economic factor and imperative to attack the Southern Resource Area.
And I'm not sure how exactly Daqing helps sustaining the attrition of 'the Chinese war'. If anything, importing plants, technologies, machines, all would eat up a substantial part of Japan's already dwindling capability to obtain war materials. The best choice for the Japanese was to stop persecuting the war in China, regardless for Daqing or no Daqing, but especially with Daqing, they can't have the cake and eat it too.
In this point my opinion is same as 2017. They needs not to instigate the Second Sino-Japanese war to have any meaningful change. But it's not like Tokyo actively instigated that war, it was escalated from a local clash into a full blown war, on its own, and very quickly. It was not the first local clash to happen as well, starting with the infamous Manchuria Incident of 1931, Shanghai 1932, Reha 1933, Suiyuan 1936, all of these major cases were instigated by local Japanese troops without Tokyo's authorization.
Property of Sumatra crude needs not be applied to that of Daqing's much heavier, paraffin based crude. Note that your link would keep making notes about naphtha. These weren't ordinary refining tests but desperate efforts to just make do out of unsuitable materials. Uneconomic and unreliable methods to rely upon.
As for 'quantity', recall I said "these facilities operated at low capacities.". The hydrocracking plant at Tokuyama for example barely managed to produce 6,010kl of aviation fuel in 1942, 5,009kl in 1943, and 2,003kl in 1944. From the supposed capacity of 10,000 kl per year stated in the link. What was limiting factor I would like to learn, but I'm sure you can't build refineries and lines everywhere just to support such an inefficient and underdeveloped method of production, and as stated numerous times, building up such capacity requires huge resources and foreign imports to make do.
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Derek Pullem
Donor
Well first of all you keep missing the point about Daqing crude. I acknowledge it's not as nice to process and does not have the high levels of lighter components that some of the imported crudes have but it is a hydrocarbon resource. 50% of Japan's fuel requirements were not gasoline or avgas but heavy fuel oil for the thirsty IJN. Only about 10% of fuel was avgas (c. 6 mmbbl in 1942. ) That sounds alot but with 50 million bbl from Daqing after 5 years (if the same progress as the Chinese post war is achieved) that means that roughly 10% of the total fuel is required to be refined into avgas in a Pacific War scenario. Much less if only China.
Your data shows that the raw Daqing crude if distilled has around 8% gasoline fractions and around 20% light diesel. The hydrocracker feed will be predominately the heavy distillates and you could reasonable expect around 70% of the 27% this cut to generate the feedstock for 92 octane avgas - thats around 20% of the total volume. Even with poorer performance it should still be sufficient to meet Japan's needs.
Where you are correct is that it would require a massive increase investment in refinery and in particular hydrocracker capacity. Japanese refining capacity was only around 29 mmbbl per year in 1944 and cracking capacity a mere 1 mmbl per year. So a tenfold increase in cracking and a doubling of refining capacity would be required and given the characteristics of Daqing crude (waxy and viscous) most of it would need to be build in Manchuria. For comparison US cracking capacity was 383 million bbl per year in 1940 out of a total refining capacity of 1715 mmbbl per year. So relatively the increase is large but in absolute terms it is the size of one large modern American refinery from 1940
But what I am saying is Daqing gives the Japanese another option not involving all out war against the two (later three) of the worlds great powers.
Your data shows that the raw Daqing crude if distilled has around 8% gasoline fractions and around 20% light diesel. The hydrocracker feed will be predominately the heavy distillates and you could reasonable expect around 70% of the 27% this cut to generate the feedstock for 92 octane avgas - thats around 20% of the total volume. Even with poorer performance it should still be sufficient to meet Japan's needs.
Where you are correct is that it would require a massive increase investment in refinery and in particular hydrocracker capacity. Japanese refining capacity was only around 29 mmbbl per year in 1944 and cracking capacity a mere 1 mmbl per year. So a tenfold increase in cracking and a doubling of refining capacity would be required and given the characteristics of Daqing crude (waxy and viscous) most of it would need to be build in Manchuria. For comparison US cracking capacity was 383 million bbl per year in 1940 out of a total refining capacity of 1715 mmbbl per year. So relatively the increase is large but in absolute terms it is the size of one large modern American refinery from 1940
But what I am saying is Daqing gives the Japanese another option not involving all out war against the two (later three) of the worlds great powers.
No, he said develop the drill site, lay down the piping , expand the refinery and actually refine it.
Derek Pullem
Donor
Actually he didn't mention anything about expanding a refinery.
But with a field like this you probably would need to build a refinery to handle the increased volumes. Refinery construction does take time but five years is not unreasonable - and as we have already demonstrated within 5 years the crude could be flowing in significant volumes.
If you have American help it would be faster but German or Russian engineers would get the job done too at the time.
Deleted member 94680
Meh, I disagree with the assertion that anyone other than the US would need 10 years. Plenty of countries and companies had been doing just that for many years before 1935. It wasn’t an exclusively American industry or area of expertise.
There's no Sino Japanese War in 1935, there are no embargos and no sanctions. There's nothing stopping Japan from hiring the experts it needs to develop the oil fields it has discovered. (Except pride and ready cash)
nbcman
Donor
One question would be is would it be viable for Japan to forecast spending a significant amount of funds and time to develop a heavy oil field in 1935 when they had their oil needs met by the US and when oil prices were dirt cheap at about 1 USD per barrel during the mid-1930s. Or even to be looking extensively for oil when the cost per barrel was only .67 USD in 1933. Japan would need to decide to spend tens of millions of USD (/Yen equivalent) to develop the oil fields, pipelines, terminal facilities, refineries, and cracking facilities when they could get tens of millions of barrels of higher quality oil and refined oil products easily - or spend those funds on building up their military for adventures in mainland Asia.
Were the Japanese that prideful? They brought in British advisors to help them develop their first Carrier and Carrier doctrine. They brought in French advisors to help prepare their air auxiliary arms.
I'm not saying they were, just that those were the only possible obstacles I can see to Japan hiring the needed experts, though pride would be an incredibly stupid reason to try going it alone.
SsgtC
Banned
I believe they would. Even in the early 30s, oil was a significant concern for the Japanese government and military. Being able to alleviate over half their oil dependence is not an opportunity they would ignore. Even the hotheads in the IJA understood the importance of oil (why do you think they were looking for it?). Developing those fields would be seen as a matter of national importance and strategic importance.
Deleted member 94680
But spending that money now allows them oil independence in the future when they want to expand the Empire.
OTL, they had to make the gamble of attacking the DEI for their oil as they were getting desperate. Here they can be more cautious with their expansion if they’ve already secured a “sanction proof” supply of oil before they launch an attack on Western Colonies.
OTL, they had to make the gamble of attacking the DEI for their oil as they were getting desperate. Here they can be more cautious with their expansion if they’ve already secured a “sanction proof” supply of oil before they launch an attack on Western Colonies.
Derek Pullem
Donor
To be fair Japan was already a "black sheep" of the international community after the annexation of Manchuria. That and the Petroleum Industry Law of 1934 which basically forced international oil companies to co-operate in a government controlled cartel resulted in an effective withdrawal of British and American oil companies from the Japanese internal oil industry.
Although this shows the Japanese were very concerned about oil as early as 1934, it doesn't necessarily mean that they would have the foresight to invest as Stenz suggests. But it's not impossible that they would.
Although this shows the Japanese were very concerned about oil as early as 1934, it doesn't necessarily mean that they would have the foresight to invest as Stenz suggests. But it's not impossible that they would.
marathag
Banned
Even with experience US workers, it took time.
For Example, Saudi Arabia.
Zero infrastructure.
1933 Concession granted by Ibn Saud to explore for Oil
1934 Geologists from Standard Oil of California SOCAL finish survey, finding the Dammam Dome formation.
1935 first test well drilled.Dry hole.
1938 test wells finally get good returns at 4700 feet of hard rock.
1939 small diameter pipeline laid to the coast.
1941 basic Refinery can do 3000 barrel a day
1945 improved Refinery does 50,000 bbl/day
That Refinery and related pipeline work cost $50M USD to improve Ras Tanura
Derek Pullem
Donor
That kind of reinforces what everyone has been saying - from discovery to first oil is 3-5 years. Building a refinery is 3-7 years after recovery. The key is that you know you have a major resource after 3-5 years and may reconsider attacking the two largest powers on the planet to get more oil.
Deleted member 94680
Well the OP is oil is discovered in the mid-30s, so the first 5 years of that timeline is already covered. Also Daqing doesn’t have “zero infrastructure” as the Chinese Eastern Railway passes through the area and can be exploited.