The time was 8am EDT on August 20, 2011. The sun has risen for most Americans east of the Pacific Coast. On the Atlantic Coast, meanwhile, several people have already woken up and begun their days. For some it is their last chance to take vacations before the end of the summer. For others, particularly kids, it is their last weekend before going back to school. Some people are spending their Saturday at the sunny beach and are preparing to go in the morning hours. Others are stuck in the rain and are instead going to watch a movie. But here’s what they all have in common. Most were generally not paying attention to the weather, particularly not to the tropics. By then, Tropical Depression had developed into Tropical Storm Irene. Its maximum sustained winds had reached the 40 mph threshold after twelve hours. A tropical storm warning had already been in effect for the Lesser Antilles, from which Irene was now 400 miles away and was moving at a fast clip towards the chain at more than 20 mph to the west-northwest. What was more, though, was that Puerto Rico was now under a hurricane watch. This meant that hurricane conditions (maximum wind speeds of 74 mph or greater) were possible for the island within 48 hours of the arrival of tropical-storm force winds. Beyond that, Irene’s future remained uncertain. While more models were starting to predict a landfall on the mainland United states, it was still not a consensus by any means. More people on the mainland were cancelling travel plans to Puerto Rico and the surrounding areas, especially those in Miami, Florida and New York City with large Puerto Rican populations. It was now believed that if Irene aimed for Puerto Rico like it was now predicted, then it could very well be a dress rehearsal for the mainland United States if the models kept moving closer to a consensus and were correct.