As we all know, the northeast USA was majorly impacted by two hurricanes in the 2010s: Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012. New York City was relatively lucky in OTL, but what if it wasn't here? This timeline will explore the consequences of an even more destructive pair of storms than in our timeline.
Irene and Sandy: A Tale of Two Hurricanes
- Thread starter PGSBHurricane
- Start date
August 19, 2011
It’s Friday August 19, 2011. More specifically, it’s 8pm Eastern Daylight Savings Time. Tropical Depression Nine just developed in the central Northern Atlantic Ocean. Its maximum sustained winds were 30 mph and its minimum pressure was 1008 mbar. If it were to become a tropical storm at 40 mph, its name would be Irene. It was located roughly 625 miles west of the Windward islands in the Caribbean, a popular tourist destination for Americans during the summer months. These islands, plus the Leeward Islands just to the North, were told to pay attention to the system, as it was expected to be either a tropical storm or category 1 hurricane at the time of its approach (Sunday-Monday for the Windward Islands and Monday-Tuesday for the Leeward Islands). Some Americans along the eastern seaboard were cancelling their late summer vacation plans. However, meteorologists largely advised against it since its impact was predicted not to be major. That being said, the Southeast coast of the US from Key West, Florida to the Maryland-Delaware border was told to pay attention to the system. Some models were expecting that it would make landfall in the South Atlantic in a week or so. After two seasons of a hurricane-free summer in the United States, a third might not be a charm and a rotten end to a warm, wonderful summer was not out of the cards. Still too soon to tell for sure, as some models predicted it would go out to see, but it was enough for Americans to begin worrying.
August 20, 2011 - 2AM
It was now Saturday August 20, 2011. The time is 2am EDT. At this point, almost all Americans along the Eastern Seaboard are asleep. The tropical depression was now 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and its maximum sustained wind speed was 35 mph. Its pressure increased to 1007 mbar. In the coming days, Nine was expected to enter an area more favorable for development and to be given the name “Irene” as a tropical storm. The showers and thunderstorms surrounding the circulation had become more organized. Currently, the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico were in the path of the system, with the former under a tropical storm watch and the latter soon expected to come under a hurricane watch. More Americans were expected to cancel their end of the summer vacation plans. Fearing the worst, cruise lines and airplane flights into the Caribbean region were cancelled at the last minute. The models soon became split in half, with one group of models having the eventual tropical storm and hurricane to curve back out to see after passing through the Caribbean while the other half had it make landfall as a hurricane in the southeastern United States, generally anywhere from Miami, Florida to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. None of this was a surprise, but would be a surprise would come later and horrifically catch many Americans off guard as they were up and about.
What's the POD here? I was a military forecaster stationed in Oklahoma at the time.
I would say the POD is two-fold. The first is that the lapse in convection between August 18 when Invest 97L is first designated and August 21 when it becomes a tropical cyclone doesn’t exist. The second is August 19 when it is first given a 60% chance of development or greater as designated with red markers by the NHC.
Possibly. You will just have to wait and see. It’s actually not implausible given that the eye of the Long Island Express made landfall 75 miles just to the west of Manhattan and look what happened. Plus Manhattan still got gale force winds from it. One of the sources of inspiration for this was the Weather Channel idea of a Category 3 hurricane hitting New York City and that scenario was based on the 1938 storm. The program was It Could Happen Tomorrow. Plus Irene did make landfall as a tropical storm at Coney Island in OTL and Sandy caused $42 billion in damage the NY City metro area as a C1 with almost half of that in NY City proper.
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Probably. I don’t see any reason why it shouldn’t considering it formed after Irene dissipated about 3 days earlier in Atlantic Canada while Lee originated in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana. Most of Lee’s damage came after it had become extratropical on September 5.
August 20, 2011 - 8AM
The time was 8am EDT on August 20, 2011. The sun has risen for most Americans east of the Pacific Coast. On the Atlantic Coast, meanwhile, several people have already woken up and begun their days. For some it is their last chance to take vacations before the end of the summer. For others, particularly kids, it is their last weekend before going back to school. Some people are spending their Saturday at the sunny beach and are preparing to go in the morning hours. Others are stuck in the rain and are instead going to watch a movie. But here’s what they all have in common. Most were generally not paying attention to the weather, particularly not to the tropics. By then, Tropical Depression had developed into Tropical Storm Irene. Its maximum sustained winds had reached the 40 mph threshold after twelve hours. A tropical storm warning had already been in effect for the Lesser Antilles, from which Irene was now 400 miles away and was moving at a fast clip towards the chain at more than 20 mph to the west-northwest. What was more, though, was that Puerto Rico was now under a hurricane watch. This meant that hurricane conditions (maximum wind speeds of 74 mph or greater) were possible for the island within 48 hours of the arrival of tropical-storm force winds. Beyond that, Irene’s future remained uncertain. While more models were starting to predict a landfall on the mainland United states, it was still not a consensus by any means. More people on the mainland were cancelling travel plans to Puerto Rico and the surrounding areas, especially those in Miami, Florida and New York City with large Puerto Rican populations. It was now believed that if Irene aimed for Puerto Rico like it was now predicted, then it could very well be a dress rehearsal for the mainland United States if the models kept moving closer to a consensus and were correct.
As a New Englander who went for more than 80 hours without electricity after Irene and about 24 hours after Sandy, it could definitely be so much worse than what we actually got.
August 20, 2011 - 2PM
It’s 2pm EDT on August 20, 2011. Tropical storm Irene now had a wind speed of 45 mph and is becoming better organized by the hour. It roughly maintained its forward velocity of 20 mph to the west-northwest and was 250 miles away from the Lesser Antilles. Tropical storm warnings were in full effect across the Windward and especially Leeward Islands of the Caribbean. Hurricane watches were then put in place for the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. This rapid development of the tropical cyclone named Irene stunned meteorologists and the American public alike because it left behind many questions such as the possibility of global warming making this sort of development the new normal heading into the future. Hurricane experts would later use this as a reference for research. The National Hurricane Center then sent an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft to further investigate Irene for further possible development of the tropical storm. What the public had their eyes on though, aside from its rapid intensification, was its projected path. It was clearly expected to brush through the Leeward Islands then pass north of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola all within 72 hours. But what concerned them is what came next. Irene was expected to pass through the Bahamas and approach the continental United States. Floridians, particularly those in South Florida, were concerned as they were now in the cone of uncertainty (with it reaching the area by Thursday August 25) and feared this could be the worst disaster to hit the Miami metropolitan area since Hurricane Andrew in August 1992. But this would be only the beginning of a mass hysteria along America's eastern seaboard.
I didn't lose power thru both storms but spent about 3 weeks cleaning up the damage from sandy for irene it was mostly rescuing cars from the street in front of my house which had become lake front property during and for about three days after Irene
You probably got the rainy west side to Irene while I got the windy east side. Of course, water can be just as if not more damaging than wind.
Interesting premise but could you try to do a little spacing/paragraphing in your posts ?
Makes it a little easier on the eyes
Makes it a little easier on the eyes