WI The Moroccan Crisis Started WW1?

[AltoRegnant]

The 20th Century, even before the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, was full of points for the world to burst. In 1905, Kaiser Wilhelm II supported Moroccan independence, angering France and Britain, but eventually a diplomatic solution was reached. But what if negotiations broke down, and the Entente declared war on the German Empire and Morocco?

Since the Entente would be the aggressors, Italy would have to join the CP in the war this time, since it didn't otl because Italy felt the triple alliance was a defensive pact and not an aggressive one. Russia hadn't yet joined the entente, still annoyed with Britain. Seems an easy enough CP victory, but if morocco is the reason for the conflict, i'd assume that they'd be the focus, and would draw significant resources from both sides to keep them down/keep them in the fight. So i'm not sure.

Plus, if it is an easy enough CP victory, what would the peace be like? There wouldn't be the insane totals of dead to quite justify tearing the entente apart, would there?

 

[The Undead Martyr]

The Russo Japanese war just ended and Japan feels rather slighted, albeit she's also thoroughly broke. Still Russia is very unlikely to intervene since she's on the verge of revoluton- probably it's a quick Italo-German knockout against France then an enforced peace vis a vis the Entente. After that its anyone's ball game really. You might see a revived three emperors league, if France collapses completely then Germany probably gouges them for their investments in Russia and in any case a broken France is less than useful as an ally. Hard to see how another general war would start (my guess is Conrad picks a fight with Italy, or vice versa, and/or something between Greece and Turkey) though a series of regional wars are still possible.

 

[AltoRegnant]

The Russo Japanese war just ended and Japan feels rather slighted, albeit she's also thoroughly broke. Still Russia is very unlikely to intervene since she's on the verge of revoluton- probably it's a quick Italo-German knockout against France then an enforced peace vis a vis the Entente. After that its anyone's ball game really. You might see a revived three emperors league, if France collapses completely then Germany probably gouges them for their investments in Russia and in any case a broken France is less than useful as an ally. Hard to see how another general war would start (my guess is Conrad picks a fight with Italy, or vice versa, and/or something between Greece and Turkey) though a series of regional wars are still possible.

Could Morocco see the investments to modernize and pull a meiji? Any ideas for border changes?

 

[The Undead Martyr]

Could Morocco see the investments to modernize and pull a meiji? Any ideas for border changes?

"Pull a meiji" is an AH cliche. Forget Ethiopia, Thailand is just about the only country I can imagine doing it with a post 1900 PoD and even then only in the context of an Entente collapse and a lot of luck. Morocco's going to be a Gemran protectorate, realistically speaking, as a consequence, albeit the germans may for a variety of reasons be more hands off a la the trucial states.

Border changes would be at France's expense in africa and Europe, possibly some revisions vis a vis the spanish and belgian borders.

 

[BigBlueBox]

@KingOnTheEdge
The Triple Alliance treaty says the members need to defend each other from attack. It never says Italy has to defend German interests in Morocco. The French occupation of Morocco was presented as a fait accompli. Negotiations breaking down means Germany is the one that declares war. If Germany attacks France then it’s a German offensive war. If Germany doesn’t attack France then there is no war.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

@KingOnTheEdge
The Triple Alliance treaty says the members need to defend each other from attack. It never says Italy has to defend German interests in Morocco. The French occupation of Morocco was presented as a fait accompli. Negotiations breaking down means Germany is the one that declares war. If Germany attacks France then it’s a German offensive war. If Germany doesn’t attack France then there is no war.

Indeed, but if Gemrnay goes to war with Russia neutral Italy probsbly joins in opportunistically after France falls (basically as in WWII... albeit liable to end better for the Italians since the Kaiser is unlikely to just up and invade russia).