Real quick?
- I know you mean "Metric Tons" or Tonnes as it's usually written but you might want to make that specific as there's a bit of a difference
- I like the idea of a more organized and centralized Soviet "Space Agency", of course, I should shouldn't I But because it IS such a change from the ad-hoc and dis-organized mess that was OTL's version there should probaly be a clear reason. The problem is politics again. I know you aren't wnating to dive deep into politics or background since thiw was orginally supposed to be simply a timeline, but this if fun too? Right? Simply stating that "the Soviet leadership acknowledged the American Lunar exploration program, known as Apollo, as a great threat to Soviet supremacy in space" as that won't work as a motivation. I pointed out that the propaganda value and international prestige that came with achieving space 'firsts' caught everyone by surprise. The fact that the US kept 'screwing-up' it's responses helped immensly but it was always clear that wouldn't last because the US would eventually get things together.
THE important bit was to both sides the missile race rather than the space race as the US had jumped in with both feet and was clearly leaping ahead of the USSR. So the USSR was less interseted in "space" than missile development and it showed as the only 'firsts' they kept getting were the essentially 'low-hanging' fruit that could be siezed with what the R7 and its varients could accomplish. This was part of the reason Korolev was fighting for support even as he racked up success and acolades. The Soviet leadership doesn't really 'care' about their "supremacy" in space, what they want it a way to relaibly and quickly counter the growing American missile arsenel. The N1 has nothing to do with that and frankly the military and leadership knew if but were aware enough of the 'glitter' that space acomplishements gathered to hedge their bets, so the N1 gets chosen as the "super-heavy" space booster, the UR500/Proton as the medium/heavy military booster and super-ICBM and R36 as the main ICBM project. In context the N1 was never a priority, the UR500/Proton was more so as it had acutal military utility and the R36 was the 'primary'.
So by early, rather than late 1962 you'd need a decison on which way the future of the Soviet space program is going to go. Probably late 1961 really so that going into the Febuary 1962 meeting of designers, (https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...d-the-r-56-rocket-flies.398625/#post-13158032) Krushchev already has an idea and the support to make that kind of decision. (As an aside I'd really like to see Chemolie pulled from that roster, he had some good ideas but he was more disruptive than helpful at the time and since we've hooked Glushko to Yangel he wouldn't have Glushko's support as he did OTL which also reduces his influance. Have someone else hire Krushchev's son and we're probably better off) So at the meeting the N1 is choosen as the space booster and given that the 'plan' is to use a more military operations friendly keroxide propellant I would think the N11 gets chosen to fill the heavy/medium/super-ICBM role as well. The R36 is still the priority project due to it being a pure ICBM but with less of a split in resources and funding the N1/N11 should proceed a bit faster and with more support from Glushko and Yangel I'd think the OTL development probems would be less as well.
Unfortunatly that pretty much means having the heads of the various bureaus being 'in-charge' isn't going to work as that simply means they can argue longer and be more obstructive to each other with what amounts to offical approval to do so. Even the Soviets knew rule by committee doesn't work in reality It unfortunatly can't be Yangel in charge as he's needed to get the R36 up and running and would no doubt find himself pretty much running a similar if not parallel ICBM development and deployment organiztion. It can't be Glushko though he did a good job after he had time to mellow this is not the case in the 60s at all Korolev brings issues at the time too since he's getting less and less willing to compromise and didn't seem to be willing or able to 'play' the polical games needed either. (Seriously, why did he not hire Krushchev's son? Since Brezhnev was 'technically' his boss was there already political problems with such a move? It got Chemolie's foot in the door pretty well) We're assuming some earlier back and forth between the three so it's plausible I suppose and if we can keep the relations from going south like they did OTL so much the better.
- In that same direction since essentially Korolev is getting everything he wants, (N1, Soyuz, his LK design, etc) you'll probably need to explain WHY he didn't then get EVERYTHING he wanted such as kerolox stages and higher performane upper stages. It was Glushko's push-back and lack of 'success' vis-a-vis his work on the R7 and GR1 that caused the OTL split in the first place. Korolev had required Glushko to work on a better upper stage engine for the R7 which Glushko refused to do so Korolev had to design and build his own upper stage and motor and eventually the whole Molniya launch vehicle AND fix the issues with the Glusko provided booster engines. Glushko and Yangel can make the case that using keroxide propellants gives it another plus for military support, (and assume at the same time they are pushing it for missile use instead of the more dangerous and toxic storable propellants, we'll also ignore Glushko's eye-twitch since it also has less performance than them as well but if vastly easier to handle thanks to his 'breakthrough' ) but again Korolev really does seem in this case to be the "Chief Designer" so you have to either assume his voice is paramount or explain why he doesn't get to have the final say. This was the issue OTL as by the time Sputnik and Gagarin had flown his 'star' was on the down-swing and he was having to fight for financing and resources that he doesn't have to TTL so why 'settle' unless he has to? And then we have to tell people WHY he has to. (I've got some ideas on that if your inerested)
- Does the Cuban Missile Crisis still happen in TTL? Krushchev put the missiles in Cuba to counter US deployment in Italy and Turkey and the number of short range missiles in Europe and Japan. With a more credible and likely better organized missile and space program being more seperate maybe he has less incentive to take the risk? That would also have effects on his later removal from power I suspect.
- Brezhnev wasn't particularly interested in 'space' (no more than any other politician that I can tell) but he did take the American Lunar program more seriously. Though in TTL we have the general leadership taking it more seriously earlier so I don't think there'd be much background effect as the program already has more support than OTL, earlier.
- Parallel development programs are going to be a problem, just like Apollo you can only do so much and while thing like the 'heavy' landers can be studied they won't have enough resources and funding to actually develop them. The "Zond" program is going to absorb most of the 'spare' funding to get everything in place and running on schedule just like Apollo did OTL in the US. The good news is you should have a more reliable launch vehicle by the mid-60s which the OTL Proton was not till the late-60s. I'd suspect that with the added support Korolev will move forward with also greatly improving the R7 to support Earth orbital and other operations.
- Uhm why is the Sozuz only a two man vehicle? It was always a three man vehicle from the start due to not wanting to step back from Voshkod and to ensure partity with the American Apollo. Two men to the Moon, yes but that was an early plan for Apollo as well and frankly that was due to deciding to go with a direct, single launch architecture rather than using EOR. The single Soyuz/Zond capsule life support was the other limitation but it was always planned to upgrade it at some point. The orbital version should at least remain a three man vehicle.
- Vladimir Komarov and Soyuz 1; I'd really take this differently. Either get Soyuz 2 up near schedule or have it land rough but essentially survivable. They just are not going to be willing to put an ejector seat back into what is supposed to be their workhorse spacecraft. To be honest NASA and the astronauts hated that Gemini had them as they were far less useful, (and arguably much more dangerous) than a dedicated launch escape system such as Mercury and Apollo had. The payload limitation of the Titan II GLV precluded the use of such a system so there wasn't much choice at the time but the Russian's specifically went with a LAS because the ejection seats were of such limited value. Even if Soyuz 1 and 2 can't dock, (which given the malfunctions is unlikely anyway) they can at least show they can perform a rendzvous and they could also claim the fist space 'rescue' and personnel transfer
-LK4: IIRC the cabin was depressurized the entire flight since the cosmonaut was never outside his suit at any time. Bottom half, not back half I think would be 'blown-off' and I would think they would never be outside visual range of each other as a precaution. And this is the point where you want/need a three man crew because with no abilty to manuver Yeliseyev's chances of 'hitting' the Soyuz are almost non-existant. Volynov would be able to get within a few hundred meters but his radar is effectivly 'jammed' by the debris field and someone in the flight module hatch with a tether and communications can direct him close enough to be effective. Yeliseyev should be able to control the tumble with what's left of the RCS as it was a seperate system IIRC. Yeliseyev's not going to have a 'tether' to the LK as they would be more dangerous than a free jump. (One piece of debris hitting the tether while it's playing out and he's jerked off his 'trajectory', or worse the tumbling LK starts to wind him back in. Why is the "combined craft" spinning btw? Since he couldn't dock he shouldn't have an issue?) Appropiate but its kind of a truism if what-ever-just-happened didn't kill you instantly you've got a pretty good chance of making it through with enough training and work. Hence I suggest we put a third man in the Soyuz as a backup.
- Polar landing problems: I don't think either the standard Saturn V or N1 could do an effective polar mission, the possible farside mission was hard enough with their effective delta-v. They'd need a lot higher engergy upper stages to pull it off. Landing a heavy "lab" module is worse even with EOR refueling or assembly.
- Zarya 5; One thing about a TL like this is the Soviet's can no longer 'deny' a failed mission as not only the US but the whole world will be watching and monitoring. The British watched and monitored the failed Soviet Lunar sample return mission from de-orbit to impact in real-time so the Soviets are going to have to own up to this one publicly. While finding water ice would be a coup, having an cosmonaut do so it far to dangrous especially on his own. As it is the Soviets are going to in some ways have even more issues with the Lunar samples than the US did. (There's a thread on here on Lunar water and guess what? We knew the Moon had more water than it was thought from the Apollo samples but the kicker was no one thought it WAS Lunar water. It was so chemically similar to Earth water it was assumed, due to the small diameter drill sample size, to be contamination from the astronauts suits) The up-side is you have robotic sample return missions working which means that such contamiation, if they can prove the evidence chain well enough, will be ruled out and the water content of the Moon looks a LOT better even with such small sample sizes
- Secrecy in space; Not really a possibilty under the circumstances. The 'boosters' for the TMK are going to be obvious, especially since there are three (3) of them. One would be arguable as a TLI stage and two arguable for a Lunar mission. Three is interplanetary and it would be rather obvious. MDK is also obviously NOT a "Lunar" lander, heavy or otherwise. It's performance when making a burn will be obvious that it's lightly loaded and has much more performance than needed for a Lunar mission. And space electric propulsion, (both nuclear and solar) were extensivly studied in the US in the 60s. We wouldn't be surprised the first time the USSR tests it in space. (They did didn't they? Because that's a rather foolish risk if they didn't. Not to mention the power reactor itself which will be visible and easily identified) The thing was while the US didn't even try to hide what we were doing the USSR litterally couldn't after the early 60s. The original voluntary, (and as such easily suborned or given false data) MiniTrack system had been replaced world wide with a much more comprehensive and sophisticated tracking and identification system by both sides in the Cold War. (And in fact just about any nation with radar and telescopes)
The Soviet system still had pretty glaring gaps that required dedicated tracking and control ships but in general the world was well aware of what went on in space and by the early 70s you even had the beginings of amature tracking and identification coming into being. With even more spaceflight in TTL there's an even more vanishingly small chance that anyone can 'fool' anyone else about what they are doing.
- Ion propulsion: Why shut it off? The whole point is you pretty much keep accellerating along the trajectory till you reach a point where you go from accelleration to decelleration and thus make the trip faster. With Nuclear or Chemical propulsion you have a "short" high thrust period followed by a ballistic trajectory till you either aerobrake or use retro-propulsion to rendzvous with the target. Ion, arc-jet, plasma thrusters, et-al you use them to build up tremendous speed with low thrust and then use them to slow down at the other end. If they only use it and then shut it down it's actually possible for the American's to beat them by going all Kerbal and simply adding 'more-boosters' to the stack. Unlikely mind you but if they REALLY want to make it a close race ...
I actually liked it though, two months shy of being any use. That's tough but it sentimental at the same time. Very good job.
Of course I'm going to point out a few flaws with the narraive
While the main coms would be down with the loss of the main lander com-system there should be enough backups and power to still let everyone know they are alive. Worst come to worst the orbiting ship can probably see the landing site once they can locate it and there will be clues if they don't go out and delibritly make big pictures in the sand. Further even if the hab and lander is wrecked they 'might' still be able to salvage enough to survive for the (I assume) planned or near planned original stay duration, so the American's might be useful after all That's me being an optimist most likely but hey I LIKED "The Martian" both in novel and film form Now 'what' the American's could actually do is a major question because even if they land next to the Soviet lander they ONLY have enough space and resources for three people on the surface and enough delta-v to get that amount and a certain amount of samples back to Martian orbit. ("Yes it's a rock cabinet and yes I"m telling you to get inside. Do you want to go home or not? You're thinking about it??!!??") Again mostly because I tend toward "happy endings" but if not, well we had something similar happen to a mixed British and American Mars expedition crew here
Randy
- I know you mean "Metric Tons" or Tonnes as it's usually written but you might want to make that specific as there's a bit of a difference
- I like the idea of a more organized and centralized Soviet "Space Agency", of course, I should shouldn't I But because it IS such a change from the ad-hoc and dis-organized mess that was OTL's version there should probaly be a clear reason. The problem is politics again. I know you aren't wnating to dive deep into politics or background since thiw was orginally supposed to be simply a timeline, but this if fun too? Right? Simply stating that "the Soviet leadership acknowledged the American Lunar exploration program, known as Apollo, as a great threat to Soviet supremacy in space" as that won't work as a motivation. I pointed out that the propaganda value and international prestige that came with achieving space 'firsts' caught everyone by surprise. The fact that the US kept 'screwing-up' it's responses helped immensly but it was always clear that wouldn't last because the US would eventually get things together.
THE important bit was to both sides the missile race rather than the space race as the US had jumped in with both feet and was clearly leaping ahead of the USSR. So the USSR was less interseted in "space" than missile development and it showed as the only 'firsts' they kept getting were the essentially 'low-hanging' fruit that could be siezed with what the R7 and its varients could accomplish. This was part of the reason Korolev was fighting for support even as he racked up success and acolades. The Soviet leadership doesn't really 'care' about their "supremacy" in space, what they want it a way to relaibly and quickly counter the growing American missile arsenel. The N1 has nothing to do with that and frankly the military and leadership knew if but were aware enough of the 'glitter' that space acomplishements gathered to hedge their bets, so the N1 gets chosen as the "super-heavy" space booster, the UR500/Proton as the medium/heavy military booster and super-ICBM and R36 as the main ICBM project. In context the N1 was never a priority, the UR500/Proton was more so as it had acutal military utility and the R36 was the 'primary'.
So by early, rather than late 1962 you'd need a decison on which way the future of the Soviet space program is going to go. Probably late 1961 really so that going into the Febuary 1962 meeting of designers, (https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...d-the-r-56-rocket-flies.398625/#post-13158032) Krushchev already has an idea and the support to make that kind of decision. (As an aside I'd really like to see Chemolie pulled from that roster, he had some good ideas but he was more disruptive than helpful at the time and since we've hooked Glushko to Yangel he wouldn't have Glushko's support as he did OTL which also reduces his influance. Have someone else hire Krushchev's son and we're probably better off) So at the meeting the N1 is choosen as the space booster and given that the 'plan' is to use a more military operations friendly keroxide propellant I would think the N11 gets chosen to fill the heavy/medium/super-ICBM role as well. The R36 is still the priority project due to it being a pure ICBM but with less of a split in resources and funding the N1/N11 should proceed a bit faster and with more support from Glushko and Yangel I'd think the OTL development probems would be less as well.
Unfortunatly that pretty much means having the heads of the various bureaus being 'in-charge' isn't going to work as that simply means they can argue longer and be more obstructive to each other with what amounts to offical approval to do so. Even the Soviets knew rule by committee doesn't work in reality It unfortunatly can't be Yangel in charge as he's needed to get the R36 up and running and would no doubt find himself pretty much running a similar if not parallel ICBM development and deployment organiztion. It can't be Glushko though he did a good job after he had time to mellow this is not the case in the 60s at all Korolev brings issues at the time too since he's getting less and less willing to compromise and didn't seem to be willing or able to 'play' the polical games needed either. (Seriously, why did he not hire Krushchev's son? Since Brezhnev was 'technically' his boss was there already political problems with such a move? It got Chemolie's foot in the door pretty well) We're assuming some earlier back and forth between the three so it's plausible I suppose and if we can keep the relations from going south like they did OTL so much the better.
- In that same direction since essentially Korolev is getting everything he wants, (N1, Soyuz, his LK design, etc) you'll probably need to explain WHY he didn't then get EVERYTHING he wanted such as kerolox stages and higher performane upper stages. It was Glushko's push-back and lack of 'success' vis-a-vis his work on the R7 and GR1 that caused the OTL split in the first place. Korolev had required Glushko to work on a better upper stage engine for the R7 which Glushko refused to do so Korolev had to design and build his own upper stage and motor and eventually the whole Molniya launch vehicle AND fix the issues with the Glusko provided booster engines. Glushko and Yangel can make the case that using keroxide propellants gives it another plus for military support, (and assume at the same time they are pushing it for missile use instead of the more dangerous and toxic storable propellants, we'll also ignore Glushko's eye-twitch since it also has less performance than them as well but if vastly easier to handle thanks to his 'breakthrough' ) but again Korolev really does seem in this case to be the "Chief Designer" so you have to either assume his voice is paramount or explain why he doesn't get to have the final say. This was the issue OTL as by the time Sputnik and Gagarin had flown his 'star' was on the down-swing and he was having to fight for financing and resources that he doesn't have to TTL so why 'settle' unless he has to? And then we have to tell people WHY he has to. (I've got some ideas on that if your inerested)
- Does the Cuban Missile Crisis still happen in TTL? Krushchev put the missiles in Cuba to counter US deployment in Italy and Turkey and the number of short range missiles in Europe and Japan. With a more credible and likely better organized missile and space program being more seperate maybe he has less incentive to take the risk? That would also have effects on his later removal from power I suspect.
- Brezhnev wasn't particularly interested in 'space' (no more than any other politician that I can tell) but he did take the American Lunar program more seriously. Though in TTL we have the general leadership taking it more seriously earlier so I don't think there'd be much background effect as the program already has more support than OTL, earlier.
- Parallel development programs are going to be a problem, just like Apollo you can only do so much and while thing like the 'heavy' landers can be studied they won't have enough resources and funding to actually develop them. The "Zond" program is going to absorb most of the 'spare' funding to get everything in place and running on schedule just like Apollo did OTL in the US. The good news is you should have a more reliable launch vehicle by the mid-60s which the OTL Proton was not till the late-60s. I'd suspect that with the added support Korolev will move forward with also greatly improving the R7 to support Earth orbital and other operations.
- Uhm why is the Sozuz only a two man vehicle? It was always a three man vehicle from the start due to not wanting to step back from Voshkod and to ensure partity with the American Apollo. Two men to the Moon, yes but that was an early plan for Apollo as well and frankly that was due to deciding to go with a direct, single launch architecture rather than using EOR. The single Soyuz/Zond capsule life support was the other limitation but it was always planned to upgrade it at some point. The orbital version should at least remain a three man vehicle.
- Vladimir Komarov and Soyuz 1; I'd really take this differently. Either get Soyuz 2 up near schedule or have it land rough but essentially survivable. They just are not going to be willing to put an ejector seat back into what is supposed to be their workhorse spacecraft. To be honest NASA and the astronauts hated that Gemini had them as they were far less useful, (and arguably much more dangerous) than a dedicated launch escape system such as Mercury and Apollo had. The payload limitation of the Titan II GLV precluded the use of such a system so there wasn't much choice at the time but the Russian's specifically went with a LAS because the ejection seats were of such limited value. Even if Soyuz 1 and 2 can't dock, (which given the malfunctions is unlikely anyway) they can at least show they can perform a rendzvous and they could also claim the fist space 'rescue' and personnel transfer
-LK4: IIRC the cabin was depressurized the entire flight since the cosmonaut was never outside his suit at any time. Bottom half, not back half I think would be 'blown-off' and I would think they would never be outside visual range of each other as a precaution. And this is the point where you want/need a three man crew because with no abilty to manuver Yeliseyev's chances of 'hitting' the Soyuz are almost non-existant. Volynov would be able to get within a few hundred meters but his radar is effectivly 'jammed' by the debris field and someone in the flight module hatch with a tether and communications can direct him close enough to be effective. Yeliseyev should be able to control the tumble with what's left of the RCS as it was a seperate system IIRC. Yeliseyev's not going to have a 'tether' to the LK as they would be more dangerous than a free jump. (One piece of debris hitting the tether while it's playing out and he's jerked off his 'trajectory', or worse the tumbling LK starts to wind him back in. Why is the "combined craft" spinning btw? Since he couldn't dock he shouldn't have an issue?) Appropiate but its kind of a truism if what-ever-just-happened didn't kill you instantly you've got a pretty good chance of making it through with enough training and work. Hence I suggest we put a third man in the Soyuz as a backup.
- Polar landing problems: I don't think either the standard Saturn V or N1 could do an effective polar mission, the possible farside mission was hard enough with their effective delta-v. They'd need a lot higher engergy upper stages to pull it off. Landing a heavy "lab" module is worse even with EOR refueling or assembly.
- Zarya 5; One thing about a TL like this is the Soviet's can no longer 'deny' a failed mission as not only the US but the whole world will be watching and monitoring. The British watched and monitored the failed Soviet Lunar sample return mission from de-orbit to impact in real-time so the Soviets are going to have to own up to this one publicly. While finding water ice would be a coup, having an cosmonaut do so it far to dangrous especially on his own. As it is the Soviets are going to in some ways have even more issues with the Lunar samples than the US did. (There's a thread on here on Lunar water and guess what? We knew the Moon had more water than it was thought from the Apollo samples but the kicker was no one thought it WAS Lunar water. It was so chemically similar to Earth water it was assumed, due to the small diameter drill sample size, to be contamination from the astronauts suits) The up-side is you have robotic sample return missions working which means that such contamiation, if they can prove the evidence chain well enough, will be ruled out and the water content of the Moon looks a LOT better even with such small sample sizes
- Secrecy in space; Not really a possibilty under the circumstances. The 'boosters' for the TMK are going to be obvious, especially since there are three (3) of them. One would be arguable as a TLI stage and two arguable for a Lunar mission. Three is interplanetary and it would be rather obvious. MDK is also obviously NOT a "Lunar" lander, heavy or otherwise. It's performance when making a burn will be obvious that it's lightly loaded and has much more performance than needed for a Lunar mission. And space electric propulsion, (both nuclear and solar) were extensivly studied in the US in the 60s. We wouldn't be surprised the first time the USSR tests it in space. (They did didn't they? Because that's a rather foolish risk if they didn't. Not to mention the power reactor itself which will be visible and easily identified) The thing was while the US didn't even try to hide what we were doing the USSR litterally couldn't after the early 60s. The original voluntary, (and as such easily suborned or given false data) MiniTrack system had been replaced world wide with a much more comprehensive and sophisticated tracking and identification system by both sides in the Cold War. (And in fact just about any nation with radar and telescopes)
The Soviet system still had pretty glaring gaps that required dedicated tracking and control ships but in general the world was well aware of what went on in space and by the early 70s you even had the beginings of amature tracking and identification coming into being. With even more spaceflight in TTL there's an even more vanishingly small chance that anyone can 'fool' anyone else about what they are doing.
- Ion propulsion: Why shut it off? The whole point is you pretty much keep accellerating along the trajectory till you reach a point where you go from accelleration to decelleration and thus make the trip faster. With Nuclear or Chemical propulsion you have a "short" high thrust period followed by a ballistic trajectory till you either aerobrake or use retro-propulsion to rendzvous with the target. Ion, arc-jet, plasma thrusters, et-al you use them to build up tremendous speed with low thrust and then use them to slow down at the other end. If they only use it and then shut it down it's actually possible for the American's to beat them by going all Kerbal and simply adding 'more-boosters' to the stack. Unlikely mind you but if they REALLY want to make it a close race ...
Btw, yes, that ending was shamelessly copied from this: https://preview.tinyurl.com/v2s74w6. I'm not sure why, but the version I wrote doesn't seem to convey the same amount of emotions as his. I'll just have to see if I can get better at writing I guess.
Anyways, any thoughts? Did I write something that was semi-realistic, or was it terrible?
I actually liked it though, two months shy of being any use. That's tough but it sentimental at the same time. Very good job.
Of course I'm going to point out a few flaws with the narraive
While the main coms would be down with the loss of the main lander com-system there should be enough backups and power to still let everyone know they are alive. Worst come to worst the orbiting ship can probably see the landing site once they can locate it and there will be clues if they don't go out and delibritly make big pictures in the sand. Further even if the hab and lander is wrecked they 'might' still be able to salvage enough to survive for the (I assume) planned or near planned original stay duration, so the American's might be useful after all That's me being an optimist most likely but hey I LIKED "The Martian" both in novel and film form Now 'what' the American's could actually do is a major question because even if they land next to the Soviet lander they ONLY have enough space and resources for three people on the surface and enough delta-v to get that amount and a certain amount of samples back to Martian orbit. ("Yes it's a rock cabinet and yes I"m telling you to get inside. Do you want to go home or not? You're thinking about it??!!??") Again mostly because I tend toward "happy endings" but if not, well we had something similar happen to a mixed British and American Mars expedition crew here
Randy