Don't worry, the main plot and ending of this TL has been well-planned out in advance. It's the particularities, details, and "histories-of-nations-not-highlighted" that I change from time to time, mainly because of something new I learned that can change the outcome of national histories and world events. Besides, even shitposts can bear interesting ideas.
And funny enough, but I didn't think of adding Dietmar Kohler from Malê Rising into this TL until now, which is kinda ironic; he'd be the perfect foil to the Brookes and their Sarawakian paternalism.
The Great Lakes protectorates are so because the kingdoms there are a minor player in Africa ITTL.
The expansion of the Dervish Caliphate has led them to the very doorstep of the Great Lakes, which has spooked the kingdoms there to accept German and British protection. On the plus side, nothing unites people like a common enemy, so the rapaciousness of the dervishes has pretty much united the local kingdoms and the Germans together, with the latter giving the former autonomy in exchange for helping to kick the invaders out.
I think that all of my theories on Europe and Asia are logical, possibly even the only logical, deductions from what has been posted earlier in the thread. Africa was mostly guesswork
It is plainly obvious that retaking most of Serbia, the core region of rebellious Bulgaria or the areas controlled by Greece would be a poison pill. I am pretty sure that the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian governments will understand this.
Russia’s government and Serbia’s government have already been either very heavily hinted (in the former case) or stated (in the latter case) to be doomed to collapse.
The only way I see Italy surrendering is if it either is completely crushed, with large amounts of territory under occupation, or if it has a revolution.
The government of France, having lost some colonies and with 2 of its allies collapsed, likely will make peace with Britain on terms approximating “we keep what we control, you keep what you control”, which Britain would probably accept, and then go after Italy, as gaining Piedmont and Sardinia would likely compensate for the lost colonies in popular opinion.
Venetelia and Dalmatia would almost certainly be returned to Austria-Hungary. If Italy loses Piedmont and Venetelia, it would probably be unable to retain Lombardy.
Southern Italy had (IIRC) the most developed nationalism of all parts of Italy IOTL and will not want any of the massive war indemnity that Italy will almost certainly be hit with. SI nationalists will campaign for independence at the peace talks and will almost certainly be accepted
The pope will want Rome back, and what’s left of Italy will be in no position to say “no”.
It has been heavily implied that Poland will gain independence. My guesses on the rest of former European Russia were educated guesses based on OTL.
Cambodia, Saigon, Annam and French India are a done deal.
You have stated that Laos has a protracted civil war, which seems to, along with the wording of a post that says that Britain
took over Saigon and Annam but
occupied the eastern bank of the Mekong and Tonkin, indicates that Britain gives up on Laos and Tonkin (I also see no way in which Britain could retain Laos without slowly bleeding itself to death, something that it seems that the British government is too sane to do)
It has been stated that China regains respect from European powers while remaining an empire. It is also stated that the Crimson Swords were a
revolt, which indicates that they likely get crushed. I am guessing that European powers will want compensation, which likely comes in the form of slabs of Shandong.
I cannot think of any more effective way for China to regain respect than having a European vassal, even if it is just a rump Siberian Russia.
You have very heavily implied in the comments that Korea will be split, but that Japan still considers its ambitions there to have ended in failure, which seems to indicate that they failed to gain Seoul. With these conditions, a border along the Sobaek seems to be the most likely place.
Australia occupies all of the coastal settlements in Italian Papua which are not in the Bird’s Head. I cannot see any way in which they could take over Arfak, and Arfak will probably not surrender. The best compromise would be Dutch Arfak.
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