WI: Order of Assassins kill Möngke Khan

[Iron_Lord]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_Assassins
The Order of Assassins were a Islamic State in the Levant that specialise in assassination, Gurrila warfare and phycological warfare to fight States larger and more powerful then them.

Map of the Levant, Assassins shown in white above the Country of Tropoli

This group of Nizari Ismailis split from Ismailism, a branch of Islam and performed assassinations against Major political figures such as Nizam al-Mulk, Seljuq vizier and de facto ruler of the empire, Conrad of Montferrat, the de facto King of Jerusalem and Ar-Rashid, Abbasid Caliph in Baghdad were all victims of the highly trained Assassin Order. Fortunately for everyone, they were annihilated by the Mongolians after they failed to assassinate Möngke Khan.

The Sanario is... What if they had succeeded in killing one of the most powerful men on the planet at that time?

 

[Iron_Lord]

Also, This assassination attempt should have been reasonably successful. Apparently the Hashshashin Alaud-Din dispatched hundreds of assassins to kill Möngke in his palace.

 

[Worffan101]

An absolutely fantastic way to get the majority of Mongke's male relatives very interested in creatively killing every last man, woman, and child tangentially related to the Order, tearing everything they ever built to the ground, then burning the general vicinity, then sowing the land with salt just to rub in the message.

 

[Iron_Lord]

An absolutely fantastic way to get the majority of Mongke's male relatives very interested in creatively killing every last man, woman, and child tangentially related to the Order, tearing everything they ever built to the ground, then burning the general vicinity, then sowing the land with salt just to rub in the message.

True... But assuming that the assassination was never linked back TO the Hashshashins (and Subsequently destroyed), how would that effect the Mongolian Empire?

 

[Worffan101]

True... But assuming that the assassination was never linked back TO the Hashshashins (and Subsequently destroyed), how would that effect the Mongolian Empire?

The order count their lucky stars as the Khan's male relatives turn on each other.

 

[redjirachi]

Read this, thought it was an Assassin's Creed reference

 

[oshron]

Read this, thought it was an Assassin's Creed reference

same here, especially since the Assassins really did kill some of the khans in-universe--Altair himself was directly involved in Temujin's death and the Mongols went after him in Masyaf later on

i admit that, partly based on that, i've had the idea for a while that a short story in my ASB ATL could be that part of the Mongols' motivation to invade the Near East in particular was to get at the Assassins and it involved the destruction of (a version of) the Hanging Gardens of Babylon. i'll be watching this thread with interest

 

[Iron_Lord]

Read this, thought it was an Assassin's Creed reference

Assassins Creed refrence!? Vhaat?
Regardless... the idea is how would the Death of the Khan affect the Mongolian empire and it's invasion of the middle east. Plus it's affects on islam and the Crusader states.

 

[Whiteshore]

The order count their lucky stars as the Khan's male relatives turn on each other.

Could the House of Ogedei make a comeback from the recent purge they just got at the hands of Mongke Khan where between 77 and 300 people part of the House of Ogedei or politically allied to the House of Ogedei were executed? Great Khan Kaidu has a nice ring to it. Or would it be more "the House of Tolui turns on each other"?

 

[alexmilman]

True... But assuming that the assassination was never linked back TO the Hashshashins (and Subsequently destroyed), how would that effect the Mongolian Empire?

With a very high probability Khubilai would be elected few years earlier: while Ariq Boke had support of a majority of Genghis descendants, Khubilai (being viceroy of the Northern China since 1251) had a greater army, better generals and support of Berkeley and Hulagu. In an alternative scenario Ariq Boke wins. War between the brothers happened in OTL, anyway, few years later.

Continued conquest of the Muslim territories was decided upon and it hardly mattered who would be the Great Khan. Strictly speaking, campaigning in the region never really stopped, it is just that Hulagu got a big force to finalize the conquest.

 

[alexmilman]

Could the House of Ogedei make a comeback from the recent purge they just got at the hands of Mongke Khan where between 77 and 300 people part of the House of Ogedei or politically allied to the House of Ogedei were executed? Great Khan Kaidu has a nice ring to it. Or would it be more "the House of Tolui turns on each other"?

House of Tolui had support of the Golden Horde which controlled the 2nd most power military force in the empire. House of Tolui did turn on each other after Ariq Burke was elected the Great Khan (selection of the younger son was well within Mongolian tradition, as was the case with Ogedei) and Khubilai disputed this election (tradition was important but having a greater military force was seemingly even more so).

 

[Iron_Lord]

With a very high probability Khubilai would be elected few years earlier: while Ariq Boke had support of a majority of Genghis descendants, Khubilai (being viceroy of the Northern China since 1251) had a greater army, better generals and support of Berkeley and Hulagu. In an alternative scenario Ariq Boke wins. War between the brothers happened in OTL, anyway, few years later.

Continued conquest of the Muslim territories was decided upon and it hardly mattered who would be the Great Khan. Strictly speaking, campaigning in the region never really stopped, it is just that Hulagu got a big force to finalize the conquest.

So even this mild hiccup would not pervent the invasion... cool. Would any of the successor Khan's be more inclined to support the Christian crusaders however? (I beleive the Pope tried to forge and alliance)

 

[Richard V]

Monke Khan was killed under mysterious circumstances during a siege of a massive river fortress in China. Some of his troops were Middle Easterners. So who’s to say it wasn’t the assassins?

 

[oshron]

Monke Khan was killed under mysterious circumstances during a siege of a massive river fortress in China. Some of his troops were Middle Easterners. So who’s to say it wasn’t the assassins?

hey, the Assassins have basically been around since the dawn of history, i'd be shocked if they weren't responsible

 

[alexmilman]

So even this mild hiccup would not pervent the invasion... cool. Would any of the successor Khan's be more inclined to support the Christian crusaders however? (I beleive the Pope tried to forge and alliance)

The most pro-Christian one was Hulagu who was sent to conquer the Middle East. Khubilai seemingly had nothing against them: at least he had one of his Guards rumens composed of the Russians, was friendly to Polo family, etc.

The OTL problems was not in the Mongolian willingness to support the Christians on the Middle East (Armenia Minor was their vassal state, during sack sack of Baghdad the Nestorians did not suffer and tgeir Patriarch got Caliph’s palace as a gift) but refusal of the Outremer crusaders to accept the alliance proposals made by the Mongols (specifically by Kit Buka who was a Christian). Following rather strange logic the crusaders sided with the Mamelukes against the “Yellow crusade” (the term, of course, fishy ).

 

[last admiral]

Following rather strange logic the crusaders sided with the Mamelukes against the “Yellow crusade” (the term, of course, fishy ).

Maybe due to "Better the devil you know than the unknown" reasoning?

 

[alexmilman]

Maybe due to "Better the devil you know than the unknown" reasoning?

Well, the devil they new exterminated them so the reason8ng proved to be lousy. BTW, the Mongols were not totally unknown: they were operating in the region for many years, Armenia Minor was their vassal state and, unlike the Mamelukes, they were not looking for a direct conquest of Outremer.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

Well, the devil they new exterminated them so the reason8ng proved to be lousy. BTW, the Mongols were not totally unknown: they were operating in the region for many years, Armenia Minor was their vassal state and, unlike the Mamelukes, they were not looking for a direct conquest of Outremer.

Was it not the case that the Mongols assisted and were assisted by the Crusaders on the ground unofficially? This was my conception. Regarding the Mongol-Latin alliance in general, if I remember correctly, the Mongols demanded submission from the Papacy, such things that are silly frankly. The Mongol empire, in my view, as a whole, had no intention for alliance or friendship, only gathering of submission. An offering of alliance to them, is a test and probing of weakness. If they accept, it is proof that they are weak and prepared to be conquered, subjugated or made into a tributary.

Would you agree to my perception or is it incorrect? If I am correct, then the Papacy was correct in pushing back theoretically and refusing said grand-alliances, yet permitting his hands and feet on the ground to work with the Mongols as they saw fit, as they did in Syria at Ayn Jalut.

 

[alexmilman]

Was it not the case that the Mongols assisted and were assisted by the Crusaders on the ground unofficially? This was my conception. Regarding the Mongol-Latin alliance in general, if I remember correctly, the Mongols demanded submission from the Papacy, such things that are silly frankly. The Mongol empire, in my view, as a whole, had no intention for alliance or friendship, only gathering of submission. An offering of alliance to them, is a test and probing of weakness. If they accept, it is proof that they are weak and prepared to be conquered, subjugated or made into a tributary.

Would you agree to my perception or is it incorrect? If I am correct, then the Papacy was correct in pushing back theoretically and refusing said grand-alliances, yet permitting his hands and feet on the ground to work with the Mongols as they saw fit, as they did in Syria at Ayn Jalut.

AFAIK, “on the ground” the crusaders cooperated with the Mamelukes allowing them to pass through the Outremer territories, rest their horses there, etc.

As for the general concept, it is complicated. To start with, it does not look like the Christian rulers universally saw it in a purely negative way that you described. Louis IX (it is rather hard to be more Catholic) sent an ambassador to Mongke to arrange for the alliance, Mongke received ambassadors from the Latin and Nicean empires. King Hethum of Lesser Armenia was his vassal and Bohemond VI of Antioch and Tripoli also offered his submission (his and Hethum’s troops participated in the Mongolian operations in the region). There was nothing unusual in being somebody’s vassal and in exchange the Mongols had been offering protection of the territories. In the case we are talking about they also offered a crusade against the Muslims with a promise to deliver Jerusalem to the Christians. Not to mention that the Mongolian commander was a Christian.

The Papacy had regular contact with the Mongols starting, probably, with Plano Carpini whom Innocent IV sent to Guyuk asking for anti-Muslim alliance. An issue of the “submission” was a purely theoretical one. Of course Guyuk (neither he nor his advisors had been competent in the European politics and realities and his own father made some disparaging remarks about his mental capacities) requested that the Pope came to him personally but, let’s face it, he could not force his cousin Batu to do this and, anyway, by the time in question he was dead and Mongke was much more pragmatic and accommodating. Anyway, if anything, the contacts continued during the rule of the following Great Khans.

 

[Whiteshore]

the majority of Mongke's male relatives

With the minority presumably comprised of members of the House of Ogedei, who Mongke Khan and the Toluids purged when they seized power from them a few years earlier and have grudges against Mongke Khan as a result.