South African, Indian and British ones
However, in a year or so the Greek army will be swelled by veterans of the Greco-Italian war. The expansion of the greek army will be limited only by the provision of material by the Allies. So, the infantry divisions in a year or so can be replaced by greek ones. The Indian, British and NZ infantry can be freed for other fronts. Indeed, there are a lot of similarities with the OTL Italian campaign but that's the main difference: Greeks can provide more (and more reliable) frontline troops than the Italian Co-belligerent Army. With so much manpower (more British, Commonwealth, French, Greek, Polish and a more advanced US mobilization) the only bottlenecks for the 1944 would be LSTs and logistical support. Trully fascinating senario for a NW Europe Campaign!
The Free French army in 1943 organised 8 divisions with 260,000 men with a 20% overhead in manpower allowed for replacements, call it roughly 40,000 men per divisional slot. If the freed territory amounts to Greece below Thessaly, that including the Dodecanese amounts to roughly 4-4.2 million people. Assuming 10 classes being mobilised with 5 more slotted for replacements, service troops, navy, air force and the like you get about 286,000 men for the field army. That's about 9 divisions, plus odds and ends (91 battalions to 83 Free French). This probably includes a dedicated mountain division, or 2-regiment brigade from the Euzone regiments recruited in central Greece (5/42 and 2/39 the other two 3/40 and 1/38 were recruiting from Epirus and Thessaly respectively so may or may not be immediately available )
Also we may see the Yugoslavs rise up more as well - getting supplies to the Axis forces in Greece and any subsequent 'front' might become problematic (read French communication verse Spanish Guerrilla during the Peninsular war level of problematic )
Then with the Axis grip on the region suddenly very much loosened - what does Turkey do?
That is the potential for many millions of fighting men - vastly improved communication with the Soviet Union and of course increasing the German Front line without seriously draining the ultimate efforts of teh western powers to ultimately invade France
When you start to analyse things like this it is easy to understand Churchills fascination with the region
Mihailovic will be certainly put in a bind here. With allied landings in Greece, this is the time he was supposed to be waiting for. So either he puts the Chetniks in action messing up German communications through Serbia or he is forfeit.
Turkey I'm less sure while Germany can still be and will be a pain. What do they stand to gain from joining the war? Getting back an allied Greece to their west happens even if they do not fire a shot. Territorial concessions, they've already got Alexandreta in 1939, the Dodecanese (and quite probably Cyprus too) are going to Greece. Are the allies willing to take territory from Bulgaria for her role in the war? Not that much in OTL but it's possible. Hence no reason for Turkey to hurry till the Aegean is fully open. But when it gets fully open her participation is worth less for the allies.
Turkey I'm less sure while Germany can still be and will be a pain. What do they stand to gain from joining the war?
Less joining the war and more convoying unarmed "neutral"/Turkish merchants from off shore of Izmir to off shore of Trabzon via the Istanbul under heavy ASW/AA escort of the Turkish navy, ignoring that they are really reflaged US LL ships to the Soviets as Turkey gets her agreed % cut of the cargo as compensation (say equivalent to 20% of the successfully delivered cargo?). Even if the LL is limited to none lethal cargoes at first like that to Vladivostok past the IJN.Even if it is opening up the Dardanelles and Turkish LOC to the Allies that has to be a net positive
The Free French army in 1943 organised 8 divisions with 260,000 men with a 20% overhead in manpower allowed for replacements, call it roughly 40,000 men per divisional slot. If the freed territory amounts to Greece below Thessaly, that including the Dodecanese amounts to roughly 4-4.2 million people. Assuming 10 classes being mobilised with 5 more slotted for replacements, service troops, navy, air force and the like you get about 286,000 men for the field army. That's about 9 divisions, plus odds and ends (91 battalions to 83 Free French). This probably includes a dedicated mountain division, or 2-regiment brigade from the Euzone regiments recruited in central Greece (5/42 and 2/39 the other two 3/40 and 1/38 were recruiting from Epirus and Thessaly respectively so may or may not be immediately available )
It would be interesting to see how those figures split down by year, as I suspect a lot could be towards the end of the OTL war. The situation could be better at this point, especially given the continuing occupation of Crete.The numbers for Greece are highly unlikable, at least in the short term. Don't forget that the population in Greece suffered by severe malnutrition during the Axis occupation. There were 300.000 deaths only from famine! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Greece)
http://www.occupation-memories.org/en/deutsche-okkupation/ergebnisse-des-terrors/index.html
I can see no way such a malnutritioned population would be able to provide 286.000 men for the field army, the top would be around 150.000-180.000 men.
The numbers for Greece are highly unlikable, at least in the short term. Don't forget that the population in Greece suffered by severe malnutrition during the Axis occupation. There were 300.000 deaths only from famine! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Greece)
http://www.occupation-memories.org/en/deutsche-okkupation/ergebnisse-des-terrors/index.html
I can see no way such a malnutritioned population would be able to provide 286.000 men for the field army, the top would be around 150.000-180.000 men.
I can see no way such a malnutritioned population would be able to provide 286.000 men for the field army, the top would be around 150.000-180.000 men.
My thought process on this is that the Brits have not had a string of clusterfucks in the Levant (Crete, Tobruk etc) or the Far East (Fall of Malaya/8th Australian Division and III Indian Corps) that damaged or destroyed Dominion formations and made Dominion political constraints very binding and restrictive. This, I think, is playing out in a bit more collaborative relationships that have had time to be sand-tabled and exercised repeatedly so the comfort level is higher TTL vs OTL.
Still debating if I need to revise, but this is where I am.
Your calculation gives us a rough maximum for the Greek forces.snip
Your calculation gives us a rough maximum for the Greek forces.
I can't see the Greek Army having more than four first line divisions plus one or two brigade; and a similar amount of forces in territorial divisions, without any heavy weapons, used as security and labor in the rear area.
Why?
snip
Most of the US forces are still green, true. But an important part of the British Empire forces and of the exiled European forces are veterans (or, at least, have a veteran cadre).In general, the Allied forces are green enough as it is.
If you compare to France OTL, they raised 9 divisions equivalent for first line duty and 11 divisions equivalent for security and garrison duty. France forces weren't limited by manpower, they were limited by the lack of equipment and cadres (with 1.3 million men in prison camps in Germany).
- There is no massive reserve of veteran soldiers waiting to be (re)drafted. They are either already mobilized, injured, dead or prisoner. You're forgetting that the Axis got 270,000 prisoners in 1941.
- Even if there is no civil war ITTL, Greece is far from being the most stable country on Earth. The civilian administration and police in the continent is basically nonexistent. You need to provide security in your rear area and to integrate the resistants, or you will have non controllable armed young men possibly rioting (or more).
- The infrastructure in Greece was sub par even before the 2 campaigns when compared to Western Europe. So you will need loads men to reconstruct it, to move cargo, etc.
- Most and foremost, the Allies don't have the equipment to recreate a massive Greek Army in a secondary front. They are busy creating the biggest army possible to land in France and supporting the USSR. Most of the US surplus is currently used reequipping the French Army (8 to 10 divisions for now), which will be used in France. Greece is really down the list.
And you need to add that many resistants where integrated in the "Compagnies Républicaines de Sécurité" or CRS, which was a paramilitary security organization (now, the Police specialized anti-riot units). It was a way to (re)assert the power of the french government.
Most of the US forces are still green, true. But an important part of the British Empire forces and of the exiled European forces are veterans (or, at least, have a veteran cadre).
If you compare to France OTL, they raised 9 divisions equivalent for first line duty and 11 divisions equivalent for security and garrison duty. France forces weren't limited by manpower, they were limited by the lack of equipment and cadres (with 1.3 million men in prison camps in Germany).
@Lascaris @formion The problem is not the available manpower but whether this manpower is fit to serve in the Army (due to the severe malnutrition). And as I told before, there is no way in short term to have a fit army of 286.000 men . And being a guerilla army is vastly different than being a regular army, so even if the Resistance forces had that much fighters (which is questioned by many historians) they were not equipped or maintained the way regular army would be Maybe after one year (as you said Formion) or most probably after a year and an half but by then it would not matter because the war would be near its end.
And the famine in Greece persisted in OTL even after the liberation from the Germans (most areas were liberated October-November 1944) till at least 1946 due to the complete collapse of the infrastructure in Greece and the its destruction by the retreating German Forces. In fact in April 1946, 18 months after the liberation, Stelios Kyriakides won the Boston Marathon and pleaded the American to send massive food aid to the 7.000.000 hungry Greeks which materialized in the so-called "Kyriakides package".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stylianos_Kyriakides
https://usa.greekreporter.com/2018/...nner-who-ran-for-seven-million-hungry-greeks/
Furthermore when the Greek civil war erupted in OTL March 1946, it took the National Army over 2 years to reach the numbers Lascaris has mentioned . At he end of 1946 it only had 90.000 men.
So i still believe due to the mal-nutrition and the horrific damage done th the infrastructure, the Greek army can not reach the numbers you mentioned Lascaris, not before at least 18 months.