So I'm aware that the Battle of Pavia (1525) and some particular counterfactual scenarios have been aired on this alternatehistory.com forum before, however, in this I aim to ask a different question about which I hope to generate some enlightened (and civilised) discussion.
For those who would like some additional information on the military tactics deployed during the Battle of Pavia itself, I would recommend
as one starter-friendly source of information.
Anyway, time to dive into the crux of this thread. We all know that the outcome of Pavia was a crushing defeat for the French forces at the hands of the Habsburg forces (predominantly Spanish). An entire generation of French nobility was considerably dented, if not almost wiped out. Moreover, King Francis I endured the humiliation of being captured and sent to Madrid. In military terms, the scale of the defeat was crushing: French forces suffered in the range of 13,500 casualties (injured and killed) while the Habsburg forces only recorded 1,500.
So... what if the Habsburg forces had killed both Francis I and King Henry II of Navarre during the Battle of Pavia? The precedent exists for killing the enemy King should he be engaged in the battle at hand: one can look to Battle of Flodden and the death of King James IV of Scotland to the English forces as a case in point. The most obvious immediate outcome would be that the eldest son, 7 year old Francis, would succeed his late father as King Francis II of France, with his mother Louise of Savoy acting as regent (as she did IOTL after the capture of Francis I). As for Navarre, the sister of Henry II would likely become Queen Isabella I, which may present the Spanish with an opportunity to claim the Kingdom of Navarre through the maternal great grandfather of Charles V & I (King John II of Aragon and Navarre)
What if immediately post Pavia, Emperor Charles V & I forged a coalition to invade and carve up the Kingdoms of France and Navarre, consisting of the Habsburg domains, England and possibly Brittany. I can see ample scope for agreement between Henry VIII and Charles V & I as to the division of territories betwixt them in roughly the following manner:
To address this final point further, the situation ITTL has changed considerably from the situation of Henry V of England in 1420 when he achieved the Treaty of Troyes and became recognised as the heir to the Kingdom of France and succeeded in bringing large swathes of Anjou, Normandy, Picardie and Aquitaine under English control. Roughly, the populations of the countries concerned in 1525 have been calculated as follows:
Another factor weighing against France is that the majority of its standing army has just been destroyed and routed at the Pavia, plus a King and an entire generation of noblemen wiped out and hostile forces would be bearing down on France from all sides (English from Calais pushing south towards Paris, Spanish pushing west from Italy to Provence then up towards Burgundy, Bretons pushing east towards Le Mans and Tours and the Habsburg Netherlands pushing south towards Reims and Troyes). Logistically, the Anti-French Coalition will no-doubt find it difficult to coordinate their attacks, however, these would pale in comparison to the utter breakdown of the French state brought about for the aforementioned reasons. Assuming best case scenario for France ITTL, she would only find sympathy from the Papal States (IOTL), the Ottoman Empire (IOTL) and possibly Savoy since Duke Charles III is the brother of Louise.
If one were to take the above counterfactual as the most likely, the Ottomans IOTL took a full 6 months to initiate an offensive into Hungary, at the Battle of Mohács. I expect ITTL that France could be brought to its knees by the end of July 1525. The warming weather would facilitate the quick progress of the Anti-French coalition forces across France from all the different sides. Mean march speed for an army in 1500s as far as I know is ~22 miles per day. French forces would likely be too disorganised to launch any counteroffensive of note until well into April. By this time, I expect Spanish forces to be near Lyon, English forces to have taken Amiens, Reims to have fallen to the Habsburg Netherlands and the Bretons to have captured Le Mans and Tours.
The interesting question is...what would happen to Francis, Henry and Charles (the three sons Francis I had with Louise)? For legitimacy reasons, would Henry VIII need to be rid of them? Perhaps a creative solution could be found? E.g. since Henry VIII and his wife Katherine had yet to have a surviving son, maybe they could adopt the sons and bind the two houses to create a Tudor-Valois dynasty by having Francis (then Henry, after the death of Francis in 1536 per IOTL) betrothed to Mary (daughter of Henry VIII)? Henry VIII could reign as King of France, with Francis (then Henry post the death of Francis) as heir. There was precedent for adoption in the Roman times, Byzantium and sporadically in other European countries.
As for the Papal States, I suspect the Pope could be bought out by gold and land (perhaps by returning Avignon and granting some Italian lands). IOTL, Pope Clement VII became an ally of Charles V & I. Savoy would hardly put up a whimper, let alone a fight.
So ITTL, should all of the above occur, by early August 1525 a powerful allied bipolarity will exist in Western and Central Europe. The English Crown would dominate in the British Isles and France, while the Habsburgs would wield control Spain and the HRE. Both sides would have achieved their geopolitical and strategic aims:
As part of the quid pro quo of this agreement, I also anticipate that Charles V & I would request the assistance of Henry VIII against the Ottoman invasion into Hungary. Henry's wife Katherine had already demonstrated herself a very capable regent during her husband's campaigns in France in 1513, when she played a pivotal and leading role in the defence of England against the incursion by James IV and so utterly destroyed the Scottish forces that Scotland was isolated from European geopolitics for the rest of the 16th century. So I believe that Katherine would be capable of stabilising France and putting down any possible rebellions during Henry VIII's campaigns against the Ottomans.
So... thoughts anyone?
Signing off.
For those who would like some additional information on the military tactics deployed during the Battle of Pavia itself, I would recommend
Anyway, time to dive into the crux of this thread. We all know that the outcome of Pavia was a crushing defeat for the French forces at the hands of the Habsburg forces (predominantly Spanish). An entire generation of French nobility was considerably dented, if not almost wiped out. Moreover, King Francis I endured the humiliation of being captured and sent to Madrid. In military terms, the scale of the defeat was crushing: French forces suffered in the range of 13,500 casualties (injured and killed) while the Habsburg forces only recorded 1,500.
So... what if the Habsburg forces had killed both Francis I and King Henry II of Navarre during the Battle of Pavia? The precedent exists for killing the enemy King should he be engaged in the battle at hand: one can look to Battle of Flodden and the death of King James IV of Scotland to the English forces as a case in point. The most obvious immediate outcome would be that the eldest son, 7 year old Francis, would succeed his late father as King Francis II of France, with his mother Louise of Savoy acting as regent (as she did IOTL after the capture of Francis I). As for Navarre, the sister of Henry II would likely become Queen Isabella I, which may present the Spanish with an opportunity to claim the Kingdom of Navarre through the maternal great grandfather of Charles V & I (King John II of Aragon and Navarre)
What if immediately post Pavia, Emperor Charles V & I forged a coalition to invade and carve up the Kingdoms of France and Navarre, consisting of the Habsburg domains, England and possibly Brittany. I can see ample scope for agreement between Henry VIII and Charles V & I as to the division of territories betwixt them in roughly the following manner:
- Henry VIII of England shall become Henry II of France, bringing about a personal union between England and France. The Crown of France is to be inherited by his heirs in line with the rules of succession to the Crown of England.
- Certain lands that formed part of France as at February 1525 shall be separated from the Crown of France and instead form part of the Habsburg realm. This could include:
- Duchy of Milan;
- South East and East France, specifically:
- Provence;
- Montpellier;
- Narbonne;
- Forcalquier;
- Viviers;
- Lyonnais;
- Dauphiné;
- Charolais;
- Dijonnais;
- Auxerrois; and
- Barrois.
- The Duchy of Brittany would become a semi-autonomous duchy, though ultimately a vassal of Henry VIII & II. Since the Duchy of Brittany had become inherited by the Kings of France through personal union, a new duke/duchess would have to be found ITTL. Outside of the house of Dreux-Montfort or the house of Valois, I would suggest that the next best alternative is Renée de Rieux (La Belle Châteauneuf), daughter of the prominent Breton nobleman, martial and regent John (Jean) IV de Rieux.
To address this final point further, the situation ITTL has changed considerably from the situation of Henry V of England in 1420 when he achieved the Treaty of Troyes and became recognised as the heir to the Kingdom of France and succeeded in bringing large swathes of Anjou, Normandy, Picardie and Aquitaine under English control. Roughly, the populations of the countries concerned in 1525 have been calculated as follows:
- Kingdom of France: ~15 million (excluding Duchy of Milan)
- Anti-French Coalition: ~16.6 million
- Spanish Empire: ~8.6 million (excluding the New World colonies)
- Habsburg Netherlands: ~1 million
- Archduchy of Austria: ~1.5 million
- Kingdom of Bohemia: ~1.5 million
- Kingdom of Hungary: ~1.2 million
- English Crown: ~2.8 million (including Wales, Calais, and Lordship of Ireland)
Another factor weighing against France is that the majority of its standing army has just been destroyed and routed at the Pavia, plus a King and an entire generation of noblemen wiped out and hostile forces would be bearing down on France from all sides (English from Calais pushing south towards Paris, Spanish pushing west from Italy to Provence then up towards Burgundy, Bretons pushing east towards Le Mans and Tours and the Habsburg Netherlands pushing south towards Reims and Troyes). Logistically, the Anti-French Coalition will no-doubt find it difficult to coordinate their attacks, however, these would pale in comparison to the utter breakdown of the French state brought about for the aforementioned reasons. Assuming best case scenario for France ITTL, she would only find sympathy from the Papal States (IOTL), the Ottoman Empire (IOTL) and possibly Savoy since Duke Charles III is the brother of Louise.
If one were to take the above counterfactual as the most likely, the Ottomans IOTL took a full 6 months to initiate an offensive into Hungary, at the Battle of Mohács. I expect ITTL that France could be brought to its knees by the end of July 1525. The warming weather would facilitate the quick progress of the Anti-French coalition forces across France from all the different sides. Mean march speed for an army in 1500s as far as I know is ~22 miles per day. French forces would likely be too disorganised to launch any counteroffensive of note until well into April. By this time, I expect Spanish forces to be near Lyon, English forces to have taken Amiens, Reims to have fallen to the Habsburg Netherlands and the Bretons to have captured Le Mans and Tours.
The interesting question is...what would happen to Francis, Henry and Charles (the three sons Francis I had with Louise)? For legitimacy reasons, would Henry VIII need to be rid of them? Perhaps a creative solution could be found? E.g. since Henry VIII and his wife Katherine had yet to have a surviving son, maybe they could adopt the sons and bind the two houses to create a Tudor-Valois dynasty by having Francis (then Henry, after the death of Francis in 1536 per IOTL) betrothed to Mary (daughter of Henry VIII)? Henry VIII could reign as King of France, with Francis (then Henry post the death of Francis) as heir. There was precedent for adoption in the Roman times, Byzantium and sporadically in other European countries.
As for the Papal States, I suspect the Pope could be bought out by gold and land (perhaps by returning Avignon and granting some Italian lands). IOTL, Pope Clement VII became an ally of Charles V & I. Savoy would hardly put up a whimper, let alone a fight.
So ITTL, should all of the above occur, by early August 1525 a powerful allied bipolarity will exist in Western and Central Europe. The English Crown would dominate in the British Isles and France, while the Habsburgs would wield control Spain and the HRE. Both sides would have achieved their geopolitical and strategic aims:
- For England --- reclaiming lost lands in France and establishing a secure position for the continental holdings and the British isles that is free from the threat of a powerful and hostile enemy on the continent;
- For the Habsburgs --- removing the meddling, rivalry and thorn in the side that was Valois France and gaining a powerful ally to assist with the upcoming wars against the Ottomans.
As part of the quid pro quo of this agreement, I also anticipate that Charles V & I would request the assistance of Henry VIII against the Ottoman invasion into Hungary. Henry's wife Katherine had already demonstrated herself a very capable regent during her husband's campaigns in France in 1513, when she played a pivotal and leading role in the defence of England against the incursion by James IV and so utterly destroyed the Scottish forces that Scotland was isolated from European geopolitics for the rest of the 16th century. So I believe that Katherine would be capable of stabilising France and putting down any possible rebellions during Henry VIII's campaigns against the Ottomans.
So... thoughts anyone?
- How likely do you think this scenario could have been, had Charles V & I more actively sought to coordinate with Henry VIII? IOTL England ended up switching sides in 1526 to support France in the Italian Wars, however, with the potential to rule all of France and recreate the Angevin Empire I suspect Henry VIII (English then British monarchs were crowned King/Queen of France up until 1800) would hardly have turned this down.
- What would the potential consequential effects be? Would England have remained Catholic? Or would it still have undergone a Reformation and detached from the pope, but perhaps retained a Church of England that is more Catholic in its practices and substance?
- Would Henry VIII still have sought to annul the marriage with Katherine?
- Would the English have sought to expand into colonial empire, or simply have been satisfied with the newly acquired Kingdom of France?
- Would the Ottomans be pushed back much earlier ITTL when facing the alliance between England (in personal union with France), the Habsburg domains and the Pope?
- Would the dominance of the Habsburgs (both Austria and Spain) have greater longevity than IOTL?
- Would the people of France accept this settlement? Would it depend on how the English ruled France and managed the nobility (e.g. in an inclusive and cooperative way vs. in an exclusionary and oppressive way)
- Are there certain elements ITTL that are too far-fetched to be plausible?
Signing off.