The Footprint of Mussolini - TL

[Lalli]

Very interesting thought on Tunisia.

Any thoughts on Franco's possible plans for Morocco?



I think Lebanon may actually come out of this smelling well. With that Lebanese resistance group active and the IU hints, I think Lebanon will get the Austria Treatment and be treated as a country conquered by the UAR.

Also the Western Powers I doubt will give the RA their full shopping list. If Einstein is still President of Israel i expect he will be working hard to try and do damage control on the peace.

So just as I expect Kurdistan is a Western Project the RA is forced to accept I suspect Lebanon intact but under RA influence will be a compromise. In return Turkey probably carves another chunk off Syria and the remnant whatever number of states it ends up is recognized as in the Turkish Sphere of Influence. I think beside Lebanon Italy will focus on the Arabian peninsula via its colonial empire and expanding its influence in Northern Africa.

Or as Mussolini might say in regard to terminology: "Libya is Southernmost Europe."

Franco might make Morocco as Spanish protectorate controlled by Berbers. So basically Berber Apartheid state under Franco's protection.

I think too that Lebanon probably gets Austria treatment. Lebanon might become Fasicst Christian state. Perhaps government try promote Aramaic language and replace Arabic with that. Probably Lebanon will get several Christian refugees from non-Israel Middle East when Muslim Arabs turn their hatred towards Christians.

Syria is difficult question. Surely Turkey annex some places if not whole country.

We already know that there is independent Kurdistan where lives Arabs too. Rest of Iraq might be divided as Sunni and Shia states.

 

[wabbitking]

If there's any minority whether cultural or religious in the middle east who want a country now's the time to be shopping for one.

 

[Herr Frage]

Rest of Iraq might be divided as Sunni and Shia states.

Was there an Iranian minority in Iraq at this time? With Northern Iran hating on Aflaq they may make a pact with Southern Iran not to interfere if the South aids the British against the UAR, and even support the South carving off a chunk.

Which may not please the Soviets and be another mark against the Troika if they are seen as losing control of the Pact states.

 

[holyknight]

I think Turkey might annex the city of Tripoli and its environs from Lebanon.

LOL WUT!? When this went into ASB and ISOTing a city in Libya to the Lebanon?

 

[Joriz Castillo]

LOL WUT!? When this went into ASB and ISOTing a city in Libya to the Lebanon?

There's a city in the north called Tripoli. Google it.

 

[thekingsguard]

I'm not sure Italy would annex Tunisia.

I think it is probably than France keeps Bizerte and perhaps keeps Tabarka island as well.
Italy seizes Jerba island (and its historic synagogue), Shergui island, and Garbi island. Italy might annex the slice of southern Tunisia that in the past had been part of Libya as well. Maybe even more (Tatouine

The Bey will be restored and both countries get the right to keep troops in Tunisia.

Italy gets the red, France bets the blue.
Tiny red circles is iffier.


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As for Israel...
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Maybe the restoration of the Druze state as well.

A Maronite Lebanon and a Druze Suweyda statelet would serve as good buffers.

I think Turkey might annex the city of Tripoli and its environs from Lebanon.

I think Italy might make a play for a bigger chunk, if only becayse at this time, there was a large population of Italians in Tunisia.

Plus, Mussilini having a chance to rebuild Carthage is just the kind of thing Fascist Italy would LOVE to do.

 

[novussa]

Welcome to new carthage this time with More roman statues than before.

 

[wabbitking]

I think Italy might make a play for a bigger chunk, if only becayse at this time, there was a large population of Italians in Tunisia.

Plus, Mussilini having a chance to rebuild Carthage is just the kind of thing Fascist Italy would LOVE to do.

Carthaginem esse non aedificabitur amplius!
Doesn't have the same ring to it as Carthago delenda est! but what can you do.

 

[thekingsguard]

Carthaginem esse non aedificabitur amplius!
Doesn't have the same ring to it as Carthago delenda est! but what can you do.

Plus, some kind of bridge connecting Italy to Sicily to Africa seems like a megaproject that Italy would use as a showcase of power.

 

[RedLegion]

1-Fascist rebuilt Carthage.
2-Some year later Tunisia want indipendence.
3-Fascist delete Carthage.
4-Profit

 

[President Earl Warren]

Plus, some kind of bridge connecting Italy to Sicily to Africa seems like a megaproject that Italy would use as a showcase of power.

I mean they'd have to abandon it, its far too expensive and architecually impossible.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Very interesting thought on Tunisia.

Any thoughts on Franco's possible plans for Morocco?

Morocco might serve as a good place to deport Algerians who don't want to be French. I'm not sure why France would want to do anything other than prop up a pro-French King in Morocco. Maybe they'd want to annex Oujda and Jerada, as Oujda a good spot to control Eastern Morocco from. The French occupied Oujda a couple of times in the 19th century in order to protect Algeria's borders. The modern city of Oujda was built along French lines too.

I think Lebanon may actually come out of this smelling well. With that Lebanese resistance group active and the IU hints, I think Lebanon will get the Austria Treatment and be treated as a country conquered by the UAR.

Maybe. It probably depends on who is running Lebanon. Are the Lebanese Resistance groups limited to the Maronite population?

A Litani River boundary was desired by the Zionists going back to 1919. Furthermore, Emile Edde was pre-WW2 had put forward the idea of carving off Southern Lebanon (West of the Anti-Lebanon Mountains and South of Sidon) and Tyre (as a small free city) in order to ensure a Maronite-dominated polity.


I can kind of see the Lebanese getting along with the Roman Alliance. The idea of Lebanese being Phoenician is pretty common among Maronite Lebanese.

Also the Western Powers I doubt will give the RA their full shopping list. If Einstein is still President of Israel i expect he will be working hard to try and do damage control on the peace.

So just as I expect Kurdistan is a Western Project the RA is forced to accept I suspect Lebanon intact but under RA influence will be a compromise. In return Turkey probably carves another chunk off Syria and the remnant whatever number of states it ends up is recognized as in the Turkish Sphere of Influence. I think beside Lebanon Italy will focus on the Arabian peninsula via its colonial empire and expanding its influence in Northern Africa.

Or as Mussolini might say in regard to terminology: "Libya is Southernmost Europe."

I can see France not wanting a carving up of Lebanon.

I can't see anybody successfully pushing through a Kurdistan, as the Turks would have a heart attack (unless all of their Turks were deported there) and the Turks would be the ones most likely to be occupying Kurdistan anyway come war's end.

Italy will probably want a slice of North Yemen.



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Also noteworthy...

1. Is South Iran going to get some spoils in this conflict? Shatt al-Arab at the least would be Iranian.
2. Might Britain decide to take the restored Kuwait and adjust its boundaries to an extent not seen since before Uqair?

 

[thekingsguard]

I mean they'd have to abandon it, its far too expensive and architecturally impossible.

That doesn't mean they won't try. It would take the kind of engineering that would make the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel took like amateur hour.

I do see them actually building the Messina Bridge though.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

If China in 2019 can build a 76 mile bridge and tunnel (56 miles underwater) across the Bohai Strait from Shandong to Liaodong, then a 96 mile tunnel across the strait of Sicily isn't that crazy.

 

[Kotka]

So I have som suggestions for the story after the Second Arabian War:

• An Intermission chapter about Ferrari and Formula One (Just imagine the Tripoli Grand Prix) I assume that it would be even more popular as Italy is one of the most influential and powerful countries in the world.
• A chapter about what's going on in Albania and Montenegro. Probably Albania will be bilingual at this point, even more than OTL as many Albanians speak italian.
• A chapter about Italian-Swiss relations and especially relations with the italian-speaking cantons.

 

[Lalli]

So I have som suggestions for the story after the Second Arabian War:

• An Intermission chapter about Ferrari and Formula One (Just imagine the Tripoli Grand Prix) I assume that it would be even more popular as Italy is one of the most influential and powerful countries in the world.
• A chapter about what's going on in Albania and Montenegro. Probably Albania will be bilingual at this point, even more than OTL as many Albanians speak italian.
• A chapter about Italian-Swiss relations and especially relations with the italian-speaking cantons.

There is some more:
- Chapters about Soviet republics, speciality Finland. It would be intresting to see how things are going when it is neighbor of two ITO members.
- Sweden. In TL it has abandoned neutrality so the country might be bit different.
- Italian East Africa.
- Latin America is surely intresting.

EDIT: Romania and Hungary would are too intresting.

 

[Herr Frage]

Italy will probably want a slice of North Yemen.

Actually I don't think so. The late king was friendly with the RA and had a certain rapport with Israel; his family, including the King-in-Exile, are in Italian East Africa under Mussolini's protection. I expect when Italy makes its move it will be to put King Hussein on the throne of Yemen, and the new king's agenda will include privileges to his Italian friends and membership in the RA.

Though undoing the unification of Yemen would be a hard sell, possibly more than Italian bases.

Yemen might be able to win its Greater Yemen dream and get to keep Aden in the peace deal under the new King with Italian. The UK has its limitations and I expect the Gulf and Iraq will be their major focus in the peace. So an honorable withdraw from Aden after the war might fly, as strengthening a government hostile to the old Pan Arab enemy.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

This might be a plausible outcome, assuming an overall goal of marginalizing expulsions.

Israel gets its desired boundary on the Litani River. Tripoli, a very Sunni city, becomes a little Monaco-like statelet. Rump Lebanon is sufficiently Maronite-dominated.

Actually I don't think so. The late king was friendly with the RA and had a certain rapport with Israel; his family, including the King-in-Exile, are in Italian East Africa under Mussolini's protection. I expect when Italy makes its move it will be to put King Hussein on the throne of Yemen, and the new king's agenda will include privileges to his Italian friends and membership in the RA.

Though undoing the unification of Yemen would be a hard sell, possibly more than Italian bases.

Yemen might be able to win its Greater Yemen dream and get to keep Aden in the peace deal under the new King with Italian. The UK has its limitations and I expect the Gulf and Iraq will be their major focus in the peace. So an honorable withdraw from Aden after the war might fly, as strengthening a government hostile to the old Pan Arab enemy.

I think Italy is going to want economic and basing rights in North Yemen. Perim Island, Zuqar Island, and Hanish Island seem like places the Italians could directly annex.


I just really can't see the British being willing to give up Aden. They sure as heck aren't going to want the Italians taking advantage of the military infrastructure they built up. All the Gulf Oil is going to Europe through the Bab el-Mandeb and the British don't want to give the Italians total control over that.

Yemen could be the basis for a big geopolitical split between Italy and Britain. Maybe the British could agree to cede South Yemen if they keep control of the port as an autonomous military district like Akrotiri and Dhekelia. They'd probably insist on keeping Socotra. I'd also expect them to start putting some investment into developing British Somaliland as a kind of backup for Aden.


I wonder if Oman will be restored.

 

[Lalli]

This might be a plausible outcome, assuming an overall goal of marginalizing expulsions.

Israel gets its desired boundary on the Litani River. Tripoli, a very Sunni city, becomes a little Monaco-like statelet. Rump Lebanon is sufficiently Maronite-dominated.



View attachment 497288

I don't see any reason why they would create independent Tripoli. And considering which way UAR annexed Lebanon and how much resistanse there is Lebanon hardly lost anything else as its Muslim population which is expelled.

 

[Herr Frage]

I just really can't see the British being willing to give up Aden. They sure as heck aren't going to want the Italians taking advantage of the military infrastructure they built up. All the Gulf Oil is going to Europe through the Bab el-Mandeb and the British don't want to give the Italians total control over that.

Yemen could be the basis for a big geopolitical split between Italy and Britain. Maybe the British could agree to cede South Yemen if they keep control of the port as an autonomous military district like Akrotiri and Dhekelia. They'd probably insist on keeping Socotra. I'd also expect them to start putting some investment into developing British Somaliland as a kind of backup for Aden.

It may not be a question of wanting too give it up, so much as they can't hold everything. Britain gave a big contribution to the Chinese War and now this war rears its head. With Britain probably having to invest itself in the Gulf and Iraq in addition to other colonial project, Aden may just not be something they can return to the status quo on. And they may be able to quid pro quo with Italy on this for something elsewhere.

I do like your idea of retaining control of the port even in the event of cession. Though also recall a Western Dominated Suze will be a counterweight to the Ra on the other end of the Red Sea.

Another thing Yemen might get is its border disputes with Sauidi Arabia settled in favor of North Yemen. If Britain retains Aden, expansion at the Saudi's expense may be used to legitimize Hussein's regime.

I wonder if Oman will be restored.

Probably but what kind of government is a question.