The Footprint of Mussolini - TL

I know its not a war of choice. What I mean is that I believe the Italian military will move to secure and defend their colonies before committing major resources and manpower to another major front.
The difference is that Libya has a lot more "depth" than Israel does.
 
Besides, the fact Nasser said "Egypt", even if ignored at the time, when announcing the nationalization of the Suez Canal suggests he has his own agenda seperate from that of Aflaq.

It was stated that Nasser considered the UAR an alliance of convenience and nothing more. But I guess he got too impressed by the fast pace of the expansion of the entity, and also, it was too much of a golden chance seizing the Suez and invading Libya. Nasser acted as OTL Mussolini when enter WWII, thinking of his thousand losses to bring at the peace table. We'll see how this will going - because if someone noticed, in Libya didn't explode local dissent...

By the way, Morocco couldn't even count over French support in case of defeat - whatever Franco will take from them, Paris would not oppose it this time. In part for being common allies, in part because France would have their hands full with Algeria and Tunisia.
 
You know, If MacArthur is still alive, he might finally be able to create that nuclear wasteland of his as a battlefield response if he gets appointed as the overall commander. Patton, Mussolini, Balbo, De Gaulle and Rommel at one side. Aflaq is so hilariously outgunned that it is not even remotely funny. Only the fact that this is going to be such a horrible bloodbath keeps it sober. But this is such a great timeline, it is almost surreal.
 
You know, If MacArthur is still alive, he might finally be able to create that nuclear wasteland of his as a battlefield response if he gets appointed as the overall commander. Patton, Mussolini, Balbo, De Gaulle and Rommel at one side. Aflaq is so hilariously outgunned that it is not even remotely funny. Only the fact that this is going to be such a horrible bloodbath keeps it sober. But this is such a great timeline, it is almost surreal.

Don't forget that the Lehi - yep the same (jew...lol) group that requested the nazis for help - is integrated in the israeli military, this makes the potential of the disaster insanously bigger

Yikes
 
Hmm, we have been talking about the major powers; but what about the other Europeans? It looks like Sweden will sit out but what about the rest?

Might the new Austrian army make a contribution? Will the Portuguese send anything? Has West Germany re-formed a military to send anything? The Netherlands and Belgium probably have their hands full in their colonial holdings. What about Norway and Denmark? Bulgaria and Croatia?
 
Hmm, we have been talking about the major powers; but what about the other Europeans? It looks like Sweden will sit out but what about the rest?

Might the new Austrian army make a contribution? Will the Portuguese send anything? Has West Germany re-formed a military to send anything? The Netherlands and Belgium probably have their hands full in their colonial holdings. What about Norway and Denmark? Bulgaria and Croatia?

Scandinavian monarchies probably would stay out from this war. Sweden might send some military equipments to Israel but hardly anything else. But some Swedish Jews might be volunteers in Israel.

Germany might too send military equipments but hardly anything else. Even Rommel is probably already retired when he would be already 64 years old.

Netherlands and Belgium might have enough doing with their own colonies.

Portugal might send seme forces depending how sympathic Salazar is with Israeli cause and how loyal he is for Italy. And he might be still other doing in colonies. Franco is totally tied with Morocco and he is not most pro-Jews fascist here.

Croatia and Bulgaria might send some troops to Middle East. Altough Bulgaria might has some problems with its own Serb and Greek minorities.

Austria might send some troops. Hungary and Romania probably as neutrals want stay out of this war.
 
Speaking of China: I'd expect Chiang to side with the RA and the West in this war. I know I know, China is in ruins, rebuild, recover, etc etc. Still that doesn't mean he can't make a nominal Declaration of War and send some token forces, especially if he can get their equipment paid for by LendAndLease 2.0 . Gets him goodwill, pays pack a Debt of Honor to Mussolini and gets some combat experience regarding changes in technology since the Chinese Civil War.

Hmm, more than a Debt of Honor, it would be a chance for Chiang to really push the RoC as a global player.

True it looks good for him to come to the aid of his allies from the Chinese War; but sending troops far abroad to fight also helps establish the idea that the Republic of China is a global power player. Trying to pull themselves up as equal to the West in the geopolitics of the Cold War. With at home it being sold as a symbol of China's true return as a Great Power; fighting alongside the Western Powers as an equal against the Red Menace in distant lands.

And of course credit for this return to greatness being given to the dictator himself. And easing any lingering bitterness among nationalists about Chiang letting Tibet and East Turkestan breakaway.

So yeah after having two years plus to start rebuilding his country, I could definitely see him putting out a military expedition force to push his brand in the Cold War.
 
Last edited:
So yeah after having two years plus to start rebuilding his country, I could definitely see him putting out a military expedition force to push his brand in the Cold War.
Yeah I think china will send at least a token force. But the question I'm wondering is where will they be deployed so many potential fronts so many possibilities...
 
I expect North Africa to still within European hands even in 21st century.

Egypt included.

Probably lesser or more. Spain is going to keep Northern Morocco and Western Sahara. Morocco might become Spanish puippet. It is too possible that it becomes Berber-dominated Apartheid state.

Algeria will remain longer on hands of French. We already know from Balbo's interview that France has troubles there. And even if France can't hold whole Algeria it probably can keep Northern Algeria making rest of Algeria landlocked country which is on mercy of France.

I think that monarchy is restored to Tunisia and it becomes Italian protectoreate.

Libya is going remain as part of Italy very very long time. There is not way how it could become independent.

Egypt probably loses Sinai to Israel. Perhaps Alexandria becomes semi-independent Coptic state. Monarchy might be restored but the country is effectively co-occupation of Italy and UK.
 
Whelp, time to get the ol' baseball bat out

hqdefault.jpg
 
Yeah though, North Africa is going to be European terra firma for a long time now.

I do not think so actually.

France pulled out of Tunisia for a reason and those reasons aren't going to vanish. And France is in for a long slog with Algeria. Plus no one but Italy will want Italy to have Tunisia. Also retaining colonies is one thing, but seizing new ones I don't think will fly with too much of the public outside the RA. the bey was pursuing a ProFrench agenda so the beys may be coming back.

Tunisia likely stays independent but will get a gelded military with French and Italian bases both in the country to ensure its security.

Egypt seems too big/populace and too high profile to recolonize. So Sinai will go to Israel. Suez gets international status or something. Italy will either take some off the western border or try for a Coptic puppet state of some kind carved out; assuming it takes any territory. Even if it doesn't lose vast territory the country will likely face crippling reparations and military restrictions. King Farouk was not only an aggressor in the last war. but launched an antisemitic campaign, so his family likely won't be getting much support for a return.
 

Deleted member 109224

I'm not sure Italy would annex Tunisia.

I think it is probably than France keeps Bizerte and perhaps keeps Tabarka island as well.
Italy seizes Jerba island (and its historic synagogue), Shergui island, and Garbi island. Italy might annex the slice of southern Tunisia that in the past had been part of Libya as well. Maybe even more (Tatouine

The Bey will be restored and both countries get the right to keep troops in Tunisia.

Italy gets the red, France bets the blue.
Tiny red circles is iffier.


upload_2019-10-23_16-5-34.png



As for Israel...
upload_2019-10-23_16-22-20.png


Maybe the restoration of the Druze state as well.

A Maronite Lebanon and a Druze Suweyda statelet would serve as good buffers.

I think Turkey might annex the city of Tripoli and its environs from Lebanon.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Very interesting thought on Tunisia.

Any thoughts on Franco's possible plans for Morocco?

I think Turkey might annex the city of Tripoli and its environs from Lebanon.

I think Lebanon may actually come out of this smelling well. With that Lebanese resistance group active and the IU hints, I think Lebanon will get the Austria Treatment and be treated as a country conquered by the UAR.

Also the Western Powers I doubt will give the RA their full shopping list. If Einstein is still President of Israel i expect he will be working hard to try and do damage control on the peace.

So just as I expect Kurdistan is a Western Project the RA is forced to accept I suspect Lebanon intact but under RA influence will be a compromise. In return Turkey probably carves another chunk off Syria and the remnant whatever number of states it ends up is recognized as in the Turkish Sphere of Influence. I think beside Lebanon Italy will focus on the Arabian peninsula via its colonial empire and expanding its influence in Northern Africa.

Or as Mussolini might say in regard to terminology: "Libya is Southernmost Europe."
 
Last edited:
Top