McKinley wins more easily than in OTL. Even Palmer's performance, poor as it was, almost certainly cost Bryan KY.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1896_United_States_presidential_election_in_Kentucky See Robert F. Durden's comment in
The Climax of Populism: The Election of 1896: "the 5,084 votes for Palmer...obviously hurt Bryan there..."
https://books.google.com/books?id=ZNkeBgAAQBAJ&pg=PA127
There may be a few conservative Democrats who voted for McKinley in OTL who would vote for Cleveland, but the core Republican vote is going to stick with McKinley and this will be more than enough. Cleveland will probably take more votes from conservative Democrats who reluctantly voted for Bryan in OTL (especially in the South in the interests of white supremacy).
Even if we assume that Cleveland does well in New York, he has no hope of taking that state away from McKinley; he carried it by nineteen points in OTL and while Cleveland will no doubt do better than the state than Parker's 1.33 percent, he is very unlikely to get nineteen percent there, and even if he does it won't all be at McKinley's expense.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1896_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York
(As has already bee noted, this should be moved to pre-1900.)