If Japan and the Soviets go to war after Pearl Harbor, when is Japan defeated?

If Japan and the Soviets go to war after Pearl Harbor, when is Japan defeated?

  • 1942

    Votes: 4 6.3%
  • Early 1943

    Votes: 2 3.1%
  • Mid 1943

    Votes: 1 1.6%
  • Late 1943

    Votes: 2 3.1%
  • Early 1944

    Votes: 1 1.6%
  • Mid 1944

    Votes: 4 6.3%
  • Late 1944

    Votes: 11 17.2%
  • Early 1945

    Votes: 4 6.3%
  • Mid 1945

    Votes: 17 26.6%
  • Later than OTL

    Votes: 12 18.8%
  • They actually win

    Votes: 6 9.4%

  • Total voters
    64
It would be an irrational move for Japan or the Soviet Union. They both have more important opponents. But it’s not ASB.

Let’s say some rogue Japanese commander assumes the attack on the US and UK will make war with the Soviets imminent and he attacks. Or the Soviets, either their leadership or a single commander, misinterpret the attacks and assume they are going to be targeted so they strike first. Or Japan’s government believes that the Soviets will attacks them for attacking their ally so they attack. Or someone in Japan believes that with Germany’s declaration of war against America means they are obligated to attack the Soviet Union. Or the Soviets believe the WAllies might not unconditionally support them if they don’t go to war with Japan so they attack.

Putting aside the “why” and “how” to an extent, how long does Japan last here?

Does Japan fight on even if they are booted out of Asia, provided Germany is still fighting?
 
If Japan goes all in on a war with the USSR at this point, the USSR is currently fighting to hold Moscow. Stalin doesn't have the troops to spare, so he either weakens the Red Army's current (bad) position, or leaves the fighting to what is there, which has been stripped to reinforce the Eastern Front. Japan will have to expend a number of men and resources to defeat the USSR's defenses, but will probably win. The Soviet Union will be weakened, forcing the Wallies to increase support, and slow down their offensives, though certainly not enough for the Axis to win the war.
 
This isn't August 1945 or September 1939--the Soviet Union does not have the manpower or resources in the Far East to fight back. Outer Manchuria and Kamchatka are occupied, though incursions too far inland would be worthless. I don't think this would decisively affect the outcome of the war other than slightly bogging down the Soviet and Japanese war efforts (in the latter case it would take resources from China), so maybe add a couple months to the war as a whole.
 
The Japanese will probably end up having to devote a couple hundred thousand or so troops to hold the parts of the USSR they invade.

That's not a very big lift in the overall scheme of things for them, but it won't do them any favors in fighting America, so the overall schedule is likely to be the same as OTL.
 
Would think the most noticeable effect would be the Japanese interference with American Lend Lease to the USSR, so much of which traveled into Russia via Vladivostok OTL
 
which has been stripped to reinforce the Eastern Front.
No they haven’t.

Anyhoo, most likely Japan fails to make significant gains, but the Soviets are too preoccupied in Europe to turn their full military power that way. War proceeds approximately on schedule with Japan giving up a few weeks earlier.
 
If Japan goes all in on a war with the USSR at this point, the USSR is currently fighting to hold Moscow. Stalin doesn't have the troops to spare, so he either weakens the Red Army's current (bad) position, or leaves the fighting to what is there, which has been stripped to reinforce the Eastern Front. Japan will have to expend a number of men and resources to defeat the USSR's defenses, but will probably win. The Soviet Union will be weakened, forcing the Wallies to increase support, and slow down their offensives, though certainly not enough for the Axis to win the war.

Incorrect.

http://www.amazon.com/Soviet-Strategic-Offensive-Manchuria-1945/dp/041540861X

I recommend "The Soviet Strategic Offensive in Manchuria, 1945: 'August Storm' (Soviet (Russian) Study of War)" by Colonel David Glantz, the foremost US Army historian on the WWII Red Army.

On p.47 of the said book, the author wrote that "...y December 1941 Red Army strength in the far East had dwindled to 32 divisions or divisional equivalents, barely enough to defend in accordance with the General Staff's calculations."

The Battles of Khalkhyn Gol shown that IJA logistic was completely insufficient to sustain an offensive in Mongolia, let alone deep in Central Asia and Siberia.
 
Japan was already stretched thin dealing with China. Japan declaring on the USSR gets them Vladivostok and Sakhalin, and they will potentially make some gains down the Trans-Siberian Railroad, but I don't think Stalin redirects any troops; the Nazi's are on the doorstep and he can't spare forces.

Having said that, per Wikipedia, 50% of all lend-lease goods from the US went through Vladivostok. While it wasn't military goods, it is still a lot of food, raw materials, machine tools, trucks, rolling stock, etc. The article on lend-lease goes into further detail on how crucial it was, most Soviet writers believed that they wouldn't have won without it.

Wikipedia said:
over 400,000 jeeps and trucks; 12,000 armored vehicles (including 7,000 tanks, about 1,386[56] of which were M3 Lees and 4,102 M4 Shermans);[57] 11,400 aircraft (4,719 of which were Bell P-39 Airacobras)[58] and 1.75 million tons of food.

This leads me to believe that if Japan can take Vladivostok the USSR would slowly get strangled by the Nazis as their ability to replace vehicle and logistics losses mount. Japan doesn't even have to set a single foot in the USSR outside of Vladivostok.
 
The Japanese don't even need to take Vladivostok the home islands pretty much create a barrier between it and the Pacific ocean any ships delivering goods there from the USA during WWII were Russian & therefore neutral for the Japanese.
 
If Russia could trade space for time in the European war they could do that in Siberia without trouble. Japan would take heavy casualities and Berlin still falls in 45. I think that Stalin would transfer troops to Siberia in early 1945 though and when USA is fighting on Okinawa Russa would be retaking lost territory
 
No they haven’t.

Anyhoo, most likely Japan fails to make significant gains, but the Soviets are too preoccupied in Europe to turn their full military power that way. War proceeds approximately on schedule with Japan giving up a few weeks earlier.
Incorrect.



The Battles of Khalkhyn Gol shown that IJA logistic was completely insufficient to sustain an offensive in Mongolia, let alone deep in Central Asia and Siberia.

The Kwantung Army would've mopped the floor with the RKKA forces in late 1941. Our very own @BobTheBarbarian wrote the Kantokuen article on Wikipedia, and I'd suggest giving it a read. In particular:
The Soviets, on the other hand, operated under the shadow of the raging war with Germany. Although the Far Eastern and Trans-Baikal Fronts had access to a formidable array of weaponry, the demands of the fighting in Europe meant that strength was siphoned away by the week. Moreover, the state of those vehicles that remained was often mixed: prior to the beginning of transfers westward in 1941 some 660 tanks[130] and 347 aircraft[131] were inoperable due to repair needs or other causes. Because the Soviets only possessed a limited offensive capability on the Primorye and Trans-Baikal directions, they could never hope to achieve a decisive victory over the Kwantung Army, even if they succeeded in slowing or stopping them.[132] Furthermore, attacking into the teeth of a prepared enemy, especially one with his own fortified regions and heavy concentrations of troops immediately opposite the border, was "the hardest kind of offensive," requiring "overwhelming numbers and massive means of assault" to succeed,[133] neither of which the Soviets possessed.[134]

Soviet forces in the Far East were dispersed over a vast arc from Mongolia to Vladivostok. Without the ability to capitalize on this deployment by striking deep into Manchuria from multiple axes, their strength would be fatally diluted and prone to piecemeal destruction at the hands of the Japanese, who could maneuver freely on their interior lines, concentrating their power at will while the immobile Red Army was fixed in place.[135] The only saving grace for the Soviets was that the remoteness of the Far East from European Russia meant that Japan alone could never hope to deal a mortal blow to the USSR, for which the former would be reliant on Germany.[136]

Organizationally, although Soviet forces in the Far East on paper amounted to some 32 division-equivalents by December 1941,[137] they were regarded as only barely sufficient for defensive operations. Compared to a typical Japanese division, pre-war Red Army units possessed slightly less manpower, but had greater access to long-range, higher caliber artillery. After the German invasion, however, the Red Army was reorganized so that each division had scarcely half the manpower and a fraction of the firepower of either its German or Japanese counterpart. Hence, to achieve superiority on the battlefield the Soviets would have to concentrate several divisions to counter each of the opponent's.[138]

Lastly, the quality of both personnel and equipment in the respective armies cannot be ignored. As the Soviets drained their best, most well-trained divisions to fight in the west, the overall standard of the forces in the east correspondingly diminished, forcing the STAVKA to rely more heavily on its fortified regions in defensive operations.[149] Meanwhile, the Kwantung Army opposite them then constituted "the cream of the entire Japanese armed forces,"[150] and was receiving reinforcements by the day. A large proportion of its units were elite Type A divisions,[r] many of which had seen extensive service in China. The quality of the Japanese officer corps was also very high, as many figures who would go on to have notable careers in the Pacific War including Tomoyuki Yamashita (head of the Kwantung Defense Command and later First Area Army), Isamu Yokoyama (1st Division, later 4th Army), Mitsuru Ushijima (11th Division),[152] and Tadamichi Kuribayashi (1st Cavalry Brigade, Mongolia Garrison Army)[153] held commands there. While both sides primarily relied on bolt-action rifles and light automatic weapons as the backbone of the infantry, Japanese artillery often found itself outranged by the heavy Soviet guns at Khalkhin Gol, to the point where the IJA felt compelled to move their 15 cm howitzers closer to the front in order to bring them to bear, even at the expense of cover.[154] Even though the Japanese managed to disable a considerable number of Soviet guns through counterbattery fire,[155] their lack of range at extreme distances and shortage of ammunition left them at a distinct disadvantage against the Red Army.[156]
Tanks presented a mixed picture as well: although the most modern machine available to the Kwantung Army in 1941, the Type 97 Chi-Ha, had thicker armor (up to 33 mm)[157] compared to the Soviet BT and T-26, its low-velocity 57 mm gun common to medium tanks of the era was outmatched by the long-barreled 45 mm weapons mounted on its opposite numbers, while the 37 mm gun used on the Ha-Go and Te-Ke had an effective range of less than a kilometer.[158] In general, while the "handcrafted, beautifully polished" Japanese tanks were more survivable thanks to their diesel engines (the gasoline powerplants used by the Russians were especially fireprone[159]), their lesser numbers meant that each loss was more damaging to the IJA than each destroyed "crudely finished," "expendable" BT or T-26 was to the Red Army.[160] During the only pitched armored engagement at Khalkhin Gol (the Yasuoka Group's attack in July), the Japanese saw 42 out of their 73 tanks[161] disabled whereas the Soviet-Mongol side lost over 77 tanks and 45 armored cars out of the more than 133 and 59 committed, respectively.[162] The balance in the air would have been strongly in favor of the Japanese. Although the most modern fighter in the Soviet Air Force arsenal available in the Far East, the Polikarpov I-16, was a firm opponent of the Nakajima Ki-27,[163][t] the majority of planes in-theater were considerably older. Furthermore, the Soviets had no answer to either the Mitsubishi A6M, which had been fighting in China since 1940,[164] or the high-speed Ki-21 bomber, which could fly faster and farther than its contemporary, the SB-2.[165][166] Japanese pilots were also highly experienced, with IJNAS airmen averaging roughly 700 hours of flight time by late 1941, and IJAAF aviators averaging 500. Many of these fliers had already tasted combat against China or the VVS in previous battles.[167] In comparison, German pilots received about 230 hours of flying time and Soviet pilots even less.[168]
 
The Japanese don't even need to take Vladivostok the home islands pretty much create a barrier between it and the Pacific ocean any ships delivering goods there from the USA during WWII were Russian & therefore neutral for the Japanese.

And this is the decisive element in this whole thing:

Lend-Lease_Rusia_Map.jpg


It's also not trucks and the like one should be looking at in this equation. Per the terms of the neutrality agreement between the two, the Japanese allowed Soviet shipping to operate over the course of the entire war unmolested in their waters, although they did try to force them to limit it to things like food, which constituted one of the main Lend Lease materials that passed through the Soviet Far East ports. Why is that important? Because the Soviets would've collapsed without it:

R12msWPI_o.png

d8HwpKrB_o.png
 
I think we would have spent more on infrastructure in Iran and shipped it up that way. It would have been difficult and expensive but it could be done.
 
So Russia faces the same issue that Germany did in WWI, they can fight but cannot feed their own people. The Soviet 1941 Winter offensive probably still happens, but every battle after I could see Germany slowly snowball their advance as the Russian civilians start to revolt for food and the army grinds to a halt over a lack of mechanization.

No wonder Germany and Russia were so focused on autarky as a key platform.
 
And what you’ve conveniently ignored completely is that the Pacific War is STILL HAPPENING. Japan is doing this while also fighting the Western Allies in the south.

And fighting China as well. They probably can take Vladivostok but not much else.
 
I think we would have spent more on infrastructure in Iran and shipped it up that way. It would have been difficult and expensive but it could be done.

The Caucus mountains are a huge issue, and the 1942 offensives almost sealed the Caucus off from the rest of Russia in OTL and this won't be a matter of cost, but time. At this point we are in butterfly territory; how bad is the lack of supply for Russia, does Germany have more success in 1942 specifically in securing the Caucus region or at least cutting rail links, does Persia still sign on with the Allies, etc.
 
The Caucus mountains are a huge issue, and the 1942 offensives almost sealed the Caucus off from the rest of Russia in OTL and this won't be a matter of cost, but time. At this point we are in butterfly territory; how bad is the lack of supply for Russia, does Germany have more success in 1942 specifically in securing the Caucus region or at least cutting rail links, does Persia still sign on with the Allies, etc.

Iran "signed on" because she wasn't given a choice . Time is indeed the problem. The US would be forced to probably delay Torch a bit and focus money on improving Persian infrastructure ASAP. Maybe have some more soldiers drafted out of the railroad companies improve the railroads in Iran.
 
Iran "signed on" because she wasn't given a choice .

TIL about Operation Countenance. There is another thread on this board about the British attack on Mers-el Kebeir and both are interesting reminders that Britain was a dick to supposedly neutral nations. The ends justify the means indeed.
 
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