China's really only able to compete due to Bill Clinton and Bush II handing them our industrial base for free. With a surviving USSR to prevent any "end of history' type seriousness no reason for China to rise anywhere near as much.
Would take rather longer for things to be shipped to the US from the USSR than China, anyways.China's really only able to compete due to Bill Clinton and Bush II handing them our industrial base for free. With a surviving USSR to prevent any "end of history' type seriousness no reason for China to rise anywhere near as much.
Not necessarily. The issue is perhaps having the Communists not constantly nationalizing the succesful things. Early on when people came together to make farming cooperatives on their own, investing their time and money, the Communists would Nationalist those that were successful. Of course it happened elsewhere as well, like when the Japanese nationalized the Ryukuyan Sugar Company, which locals had put their savings into. Also how they broke the contract with, then jailed a man who was doing a test run on having local cooperatives farming and profiting off land. They had somethignlike eight times the produce of similar sized farms, but they were refused the portion of the profits the contract gave them. When a judge said that he was entitled to it and the man took a check tot he bank, he was arrested for robbing the state. And yah, need to cut off a lot of deadwood around the country, and get rid of a lot of the military projects keeping resources from factories making goods for the masses.I think that the case can be made of a zarist russia that could rival the us, in mid XX century, skipping wwi. the potential was inmense.
but the URSS? even without wwii is impossible unless central planing is abandoned. All central planned economies have failed (China is a very special case whose last chapter has yet to be written).
I think a stronger push for automation under Khrushchev that continues into the 1960’s and a successful OGAS cybernetics program would do wonders for the Soviet economy.
And then of course there is how the Soviets got literal fleets worth of aid, which they denied being given and which they didn't pay for, unlike everyone else.
Stuff I read in the past in various places. Can't remember the names of the books from long back, but as an example for one it mentioned how an American pointed out (when there was a denial by a Russian) that America did send aid, including mentioning the English in the truck they were in, the Russian said it had been made for export. Looking it up, it seems it may have been the British who sent so much to the Soviets free of charge, while the Americans may have gotten raw goods in exchange. It is midnight for me, so I will need to look things up further tomorrow.Do you have a source on that?
fasquardon
Prove it.
People repeat this over and over as an article of faith. That doesn't magically create factories to turn out high-quality transistors in the needed volume, it doesn't magically produce honest data clerks to keep the system free of false reporting, it doesn't overcome the widespread culture of secrecy about everything (because secrets meant that bureaucrats who knew those secrets were indispensable and thus held more political power).
It was more just speculation on my part given what I’ve read from “How Not to Network a Nation”, “Red Plenty” and more theoretical pieces like “Towards a New Socialism.”
You make good points though, there’s obviously no straight path to an automated system given the state of entrenchment by the 1960’s - I was hopefully trying to shift the discussion to the potential for OGAS and CYBERSYN instead of the NEP which I’m of the opinion that it wouldn’t produce a China esque scenario but rather continue the strain growing between NEPmen, Kulaks and the independent peasantry, getting grain to the cities, etc.
Stuff I read in the past in various places. Can't remember the names of the books from long back, but as an example for one it mentioned how an American pointed out (when there was a denial by a Russian) that America did send aid, including mentioning the English in the truck they were in, the Russian said it had been made for export. Looking it up, it seems it may have been the British who sent so much to the Soviets free of charge, while the Americans may have gotten raw goods in exchange. It is midnight for me, so I will need to look things up further tomorrow.
Really puts into perspective the drastically lower GWP of the Gumboverse, where China is just one giant killing field fought over by nuclear-armed warlords. By the end the US is a Balkanized, burnt-out shell of its former self in the midst of a nuclear civil war, and Europe is increasingly under the influence of a victorious "MBA Communist" USSR much as is described by the OP.No, because Russia cannot into warm water port. Pretty much all their rivers dump into the Arctic, so they can't easily ship manufactured goods anywhere even if they had them. Yes, Crimea, but from there they have to go through the Black Sea, Istanbul, and Suez or Gibraltar; whereas China can ship cargo straight out of Hong Kong.
But West Germany may have recognised the new borders, as they eventually did, in return for reunification under a Beria style proposal. And whilst the US government may not have given aid, US finance may well see opportunities for decent profits. After all US banks would have loaned to the (bankrupt) after WW2, but the opportunity was not pursued by the UK.The West German government refused to recognize the land gained by the Poles and Soviets around this time. I also don't see why the Us would give swathes of aid to the Soviets. After all, the Soviets already too, all the industry of Eastern Europe they wanted, as well as getting half the reperations from the Rhur. And then of course there is how the Soviets got literal fleets worth of aid, which they denied being given and which they didn't pay for, unlike everyone else.
Policies that would have been more useful... Well. A good one would have been to focus investment around Leningrad and Moscow rather than dispersing industries in penny packets around the country, increasing strain on the transport infrastructure and decreasing the scope of development synergies between industries... (The reason the Soviets dispersed their industry was to make them more resilient if they ever had to fight WW2 again. Classic case of preparing for the last war undermining a state.)
fasquardon
It could help if they somehow overcame the bureaucracy fighting it tooth and nail. One way or another the Five Year Plan has to go bye bye for there to be a prayer to have any success.