If we only remove the USA, I think we should look at the war coming to a stalemate by end of 1916, that is when both sides experience the stalling of their economies. So look at a map of progress to this point, winter of 1916, spring 1917. And 1917 might be the last push for victory before the inevitable negotiated peace arrives. With some optimism 1916 is the biggest push year anticipating 1917 is the likely end. Generally I will speculate that Germany is looking victorious and feels in the commanding position, it should be tempted to go one big offensive to vanquish the French, I do not think it does but I think the Germans sit very high when they agree to armistice and are not backing down from getting expensively bribed to go back to pre-war balances.
From that we should be able to get Russia to concede defeat and settle out. I believe Kerensky kept them in the war because the USA was coming, absent that I can believe there might not even be a PG, the Czar and leadership can seek peace, or at worst get sidelined as the PG types do it. That frees the CP to go offensive in 1917, worst case 1918, but it opens the door to the Entente seeking an armistice. If we get that, then the Ottomans are not on the carving table. Even if we do see a war more bitterly fought to an end, the Ottomans become a sideshow very quickly, the main event is in France. Against such a backdrop I am leery of assuming the British have seized much, even more so that the weak Arab "revolt" sustains, as soon as it looks like the Germans are back to winning, I think the Arab revolt collapses and that sucks the wind out of Britain's plans for the Middle East. France is going to concede anything to get back what it has lost already, Northern France is a big bargaining chip.
At bottom I would not assume the Ottomans are broken, that the Empire is collapsing or that the CP shoves the Ottomans under the bus for peace. Indeed, Germany can push harder for terms and the Ottomans should benefit. While I might not swallow the Ottomans getting back Kuwait or Egypt, I can swallow that they are not forced to give up anything. The capitulations should die, the position of British and French influence should evaporate, the Ottomans come out in debt to Germany, bloodied and scared but intact. I do not factor in oil wealth until the 1940s, likely later still, unless Germany can invest in getting it developed. I think the Germans have a good idea how much oil lurks under Mesopotamia, they will not let it go, that is their Persia, what will make them able to shift to oil as did the UK/RN. I would write off the Saud family and wahhabism, but I would not discount that Islam will see pressure to radicalize, to resist the secularization I think is coming to the Ottomans. And the Arab population will be tempted to split from the Turkish who are influencing things in Constantinople, the fracture lines will be set, but this is also a world with other sharks swimming around, the British may not have won but they are not defeated, they can swallow anyone breaking away. For me the biggest change would be (1), no USA getting excited at intervening overseas and not translating economic power into geopolitical/military power, and (2) the lack of a revolutionary USSR sponsoring "independence" or terrorism, anti-Westernism, and destabilizing the colonial world as well as Middle East. Long term that might keep a lot more of this world tottering on rather unchanged on the surface. That gets us the Ottomans inside their borders mostly, mostly out from under the old indebtedness and poised to build something forward.