Half your text here is gibberish as I made no proposal the US prosecute a earlier offensive in the central Pacific. You have a dependable habit of jumping to odd conclusions on other folks remarks. Neither did I propose a million man offensive by the Red Army. OTL it was the abrupt unexpected DoW by the USSR 8th August that shattered a important leg of Japanese strategy. Note the Japanese decision to surrender 9th August came a day after the Soviet DoW. It was the fact of war between the two that illustrated the impossible position. The Red army attack was barely began 9 August & the later defeat of the border defense was unknown and unforeseen when the Emperor & Cabinet came to their final decision.
Carl Schwamberger said:
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From 1941 Japanese strategy had revolved around a neutral USSR at its back. After the collapse of Germany that changed to the hope a split between the western Allies & the USSR could be exploited by Japan. The DoW by the USSR proved the bankruptcy of that strategy.
Were the USSR to declare war in 1944, or earlier it would as a profound event as the loss of the Marianas defense zone. That brought on the fall of the Tojo government & the first search for alternatives by the new PM Suzuki. Were both the main defense position in the Pacific defeated, and the USSR to declare war in 1944 its going to double down the pressure on the Cabinet & the Army fanatics to see reality. Not that I expect a swift surrender/ One of the major delaying factors in 1944 was the Army could claim it was not yet defeated. It was even still winning offensives in China & Burma. Were the Army defeated in Manchuria & Korea by early 1945 Suzukis position might be strengthened & the Emperor intervene earlier.
A declaration without a confirmed report of action to undertake is meaningless. IOW, a Russian declaration of war is a null event in 1943/1944. It is not an odd conclusion to take the declared thesis and subject it to a possibility test based on potential factors in play. Since the Marianas Island defense zone is not penetrable before the USN is strong enough and has the logistics to execute such an action before 1944, that knocks half of your ATL supposition out. The other is can the Russians fight a 2 front war. Not declare a 2 front war, I mean FIGHT it, because the Japanese are not going to be panicked by a mere declaration when they know the logistics problems as well or probably better than the Russians do. In fact it was not the declaration by Moscow, it was the actual reports of the Kwantung Army of the Russian action; that goaded the Tokyo cabal to realize the Russians were not available as middle men; because the actual bargaining chips the Japanese were prepared to offer Russia to betray the co-belligerency were being Russian taken on the ground.
How the heck is the mere Russian declaration going to actually panic the Japanese? It doesn't and never did. The notation I make of the OLLOC problem is why, just as the lack of a stable fleet train and the lack of flattop based aviation to face Japanese shore based air until early 1944 is why the central Pacific offensive is a bit hung up. When the Japanese realize both problems have been allied solved, (Okinawa) that is when they know they are done.
In 1944 the loss of the Marianas islands brought down Tojo's government & initiated the euphemistic alternative victory policy. Were the USSR to end its neutrality with Japan then vs a year later, even without large scale attack two legs of Japans strategy would be removed simultaneously. How fast that would accelerate the eventual decision to surrender is not perfectly clear, but it drive how the impossible stratigic position of Japan.
Already stated why this was not RTL so. (Atomic bomb shocks, don't forget those. Third pillar of the stool.)
A third point is this:
...my remarks about the eventual Japanese defeat in Manchuria revolved around a quicker defeat of Germany in Europe. Which makes your remark & argument following a bit meaningless.
Again logistics dependent upon the United States.
The all-terrain trucks, the Russians need from the US to motorize their supply echelons, don't arrive in the SU in quantity until AROUND MID 1943.
Maybe I shorthand too much, but I have a very clear picture of what you wrote and why it may not be so. Imperial Japan was one tough cookie with one very peculiar factor in their governmental deliberations: decision was always the result of group consensus, the army and the navy had to agree and they never agreed on anything in their two separate wars. China is firewalled from the Pacific War by this service decision schism. As the Russians enter the Pacific war, it has to be remembered that they were in a state of truce, and the Russians and Japanese knew it. Technical war in abeyance, sort of like the result, for example, after the Korean War in east Asian political practice. So the Russian declaration would be meaningless in the context to Tokyo for much like many statements each side made that came after the Korean War example were meaningless since words mean nothing but acts seen are not refutable, like the cutting down of a tree, an actual act was noted in Pyongyang and caused the North Koreans to desist in their own aggressive acts. The ability to do something that the Japanese did not believe possible has to be demonstrated to both the Japanese army and navy to make them agree on anything.
I think that the Japanese would have kept fighting in the home islands until it was demonstrated to them that the Americans could land, stay and compel. Russians be damned. The atomic bombs substituted for DOWNFALL and convinced the Tokyo cabal that the Americans could do as they said they would do.
Let's look at what the Japanese said about why they quit, because it clues us in to what they thought were the actual reasons to make that decision.
Emperor Hirohito, Accepting the Potsdam Declaration, Radio Broadcast.
Transmitted by Domei and Recorded by the Federal Communications Commission, 14 August 1945
To our good and loyal subjects: After pondering deeply the general trends of the world and the actual conditions obtaining in our empire today, we have decided to effect a settlement of the present situation by resorting to an extraordinary measure.
We have ordered our Government to communicate to the Governments of the United States, Great Britain, China and the Soviet Union that our empire accepts the provisions of their joint declaration.*1
To strive for the common prosperity and happiness of all nations as well as the security and well-being of our subjects is the solemn obligation which has been handed down by our imperial ancestors and which we lay close to the heart.
Indeed, we declared war on America and Britain out of our sincere desire to insure Japan's self-preservation and the stabilization of East Asia, it being far from our thought either to infringe upon the sovereignty of other nations or to embark upon territorial aggrandizement.
But now the war has lasted for nearly four years. Despite the best that has been done by everyone--the gallant fighting of our military and naval forces, the diligence and assiduity of out servants of the State and the devoted service of our 100,000,000 people--the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage, while the general trends of the world have all turned against her interest.
Moreover, the enemy has begun to employ a new and most cruel bomb, the power of which to do damage is, indeed, incalculable, taking the toll of many innocent lives. Should we continue to fight, it would not only result in an ultimate collapse and obliteration of the Japanese nation, but also it would lead to the total extinction of human civilization.
Such being the case, how are we to save the millions of our subjects, nor to atone ourselves before the hallowed spirits of our imperial ancestors? This is the reason why we have ordered the acceptance of the provisions of the joint declaration of the powers.
We cannot but express the deepest sense of regret to our allied nations of East Asia, who have consistently cooperated with the Empire toward the emancipation of East Asia.
The thought of those officers and men as well as others who have fallen in the fields of battle, those who died at their posts of duty, or those who met death [otherwise] and all their bereaved families, pains our heart night and day.
The welfare of the wounded and the war sufferers and of those who lost their homes and livelihood is the object of our profound solicitude. The hardships and sufferings to which our nation is to be subjected hereafter will be certainly great.
We are keenly aware of the inmost feelings of all of you, our subjects. However, it is according to the dictates of time and fate that we have resolved to pave the way for a grand peace for all the generations to come by enduring the [unavoidable] and suffering what is unsufferable. Having been able to save *** and maintain the structure of the Imperial State, we are always with you, our good and loyal subjects, relying upon your sincerity and integrity.
Beware most strictly of any outbursts of emotion that may engender needless complications, of any fraternal contention and strife that may create confusion, lead you astray and cause you to lose the confidence of the world.
Let the entire nation continue as one family from generation to generation, ever firm in its faith of the imperishableness of its divine land, and mindful of its heavy burden of responsibilities, and the long road before it. Unite your total strength to be devoted to the construction for the future. Cultivate the ways of rectitude, nobility of spirit, and work with resolution so that you may enhance the innate glory of the Imperial State and keep pace with the progress of the world.
Note what is omitted? The enemy, who has the new and most cruel bomb... "
has begun to employ a new and most cruel bomb".
Note the identification of the emperor as the head of Japan's family?
Now we will look at the Potsdam declaration.
Note that the Potsdam declaration.
Proclamation Defining Terms for Japanese Surrender
Issued, at Potsdam, July 26, 1945
- We―the President of the United States, the President of the National Government of the Republic of China, and the Prime Minister of Great Britain, representing the hundreds of millions of our countrymen, have conferred and agree that Japan shall be given an opportunity to end this war.
- The prodigious land, sea and air forces of the United States, the British Empire and of China, many times reinforced by their armies and air fleets from the west, are poised to strike the final blows upon Japan. This military power is sustained and inspired by the determination of all the Allied Nations to prosecute the war against Japan until she ceases to resist.
- The result of the futile and senseless German resistance to the might of the aroused free peoples of the world stands forth in awful clarity as an example to the people of Japan. The might that now converges on Japan is immeasurably greater than that which, when applied to the resisting Nazis, necessarily laid waste to the lands, the industry and the method of life of the whole German people. The full application of our military power, backed by our resolve, will mean the inevitable and complete destruction of the Japanese armed forces and just as inevitably the utter devastation of the Japanese homeland.
- The time has come for Japan to decide whether she will continue to be controlled by those self-willed militaristic advisers whose unintelligent calculations have brought the Empire of Japan to the threshold of annihilation, or whether she will follow the path of reason.
- Following are our terms. We will not deviate from them. There are no alternatives. We shall brook no delay.
- There must be eliminated for all time the authority and influence of those who have deceived and misled the people of Japan into embarking on world conquest, for we insist that a new order of peace, security and justice will be impossible until irresponsible militarism is driven from the world.
- Until such a new order is established and until there is convincing proof that Japan's war-making power is destroyed, points in Japanese territory to be designated by the Allies shall be occupied to secure the achievement of the basic objectives we are here setting forth.
- The terms of the Cairo Declaration shall be carried out and Japanese sovereignty shall be limited to the islands of Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku and such minor islands as we determine.
- The Japanese military forces, after being completely disarmed, shall be permitted to return to their homes with the opportunity to lead peaceful and productive lives.
- We do not intend that the Japanese shall be enslaved as a race or destroyed as a nation, but stern justice shall be meted out to all war criminals, including those who have visited cruelties upon our prisoners. The Japanese Government shall remove all obstacles to the revival and strengthening of democratic tendencies among the Japanese people. Freedom of speech, of religion, and of thought, as well as respect for the fundamental human rights shall be established.
- Japan shall be permitted to maintain such industries as will sustain her economy and permit the exaction of just reparations in kind, but not those which would enable her to re-arm for war. To this end, access to, as distinguished from control of, raw materials shall be permitted. Eventual Japanese participation in world trade relations shall be permitted.
- The occupying forces of the Allies shall be withdrawn from Japan as soon as these objectives have been accomplished and there has been established in accordance with the freely expressed will of the Japanese people a peacefully inclined and responsible government.
- We call upon the government of Japan to proclaim now the unconditional surrender of all Japanese armed forces, and to provide proper and adequate assurances of their good faith in such action. The alternative for Japan is prompt and utter destruction.
a. Did not mention the Soviet Union as a participant (Potsdam Declaration)? (When the Emperor accepts the Allied terms he does not recognize the Soviet Union as a military factor, though he mentions them as a co-belligerent with the US/UK and China.)
b. Did declare the allied intent to bring combat to the Japanese home islands. (The emperor specifically mentions the atomic bombings as the demonstration that the enemy (America) can do what he says he intends. No mention of the Russians in this regard of effect, as they are a null factor to Japan proper.)
c. Set the terms and conditions of surrender, but did not exclude the emperor by name? (See the underlined article, often overlooked by historians as a major reason why the Japanese "took no notice" of the declaration in the first place as they sought "clarification" and demonstration of capability.) The Americans missed that Suzuki clue and bungled the follow up communications, thus prolonging the war.
Article 4 has always appeared to me to have been crafted by utter US State Department imbeciles who were advised by rather incompetent US trained Japanese cultural experts (alleged anthropologists) to say exactly (infer actually) that the Japanese will have to see their emperor put into the dock as one of those militaristic advisors. The English text does not translate article 4 into Japanese very well, so the Japanese have their own problems actually seeing that the Americans are offering terms that could be accepted. Sometimes one has to spell things out with great named precision, and even then, as a foreigner, do them as deeds in Japan before one is believed to be serious in a dealing.
Now this went far afield off the OP, but it is thoroughly based on the RTL debacles I noted above to show why a mere Russian declaration is worthless, but the loss of Saipan specifically, could cause the Tojo government to fall.
An act fulfilled is the impetus for the Japanese to politically react; just as it would be for any other sane polity.