Fastest Allied victory with a POD AFTER December 7, 1941

[Osorno13]

This is my first thread so be patient if this has been asked before. I did searches for a quicker Allied victory in World War 2 and all the PODs I could find were either before the war or very early in it. I wondering what are some good realistic PODs that that take place after the US enters, that could lead to a quicker victory. What strategy could the Allies take to win more quickly, or was our timeline arguably the quickest.

Some PODs I heard of but not sure if their realistic or not, or if they even would lead to a quicker victory are:

MacArthur being captured or killed on Bataan and the US focusing on a single central pacific drive.

Successfully closing the Falaise pocket

A successful Market Garden

A successful operation Saturn, where the German army in the caucuses is cut off after Stalingrad.

I’m sure there are many others.

 

[Baldrick]

Zhukov is less restrained in the post-Stalingrad counterattack. Army Group A is cut off and destroyed, and the Red Army stands on the Dnieper after a few months.

Alternatively, we could have the Allies launch an amphibious or airborne strike on Rome in summer 1943 so that the Germans don't have much time to occupy Italy. This means that the Italian front comes to rest on the old Trentino front from WWI, more or less.

 

[Dave Shoup]

This is my first thread so be patient if this has been asked before. I did searches for a quicker Allied victory in World War 2 and all the PODs I could find were either before the war or very early in it. I wondering what are some good realistic PODs that that take place after the US enters, that could lead to a quicker victory. What strategy could the Allies take to win more quickly, or was our timeline arguably the quickest.

It depends greatly on how you define an Allied victory - destruction of the Axis and what amounts to their unconditional surrender in Europe and the Pacific, or something else?

 

[cra0422]

Allies invade Sardinia and Corsica instead of Sicily allowing them to later invade Italy north of Rome, instead of having to spend spend the better part of 2 years slogging their way up the Italian peninsula

 

[Michele]

Alternatively, we could have the Allies launch an amphibious or airborne strike on Rome in summer 1943 so that the Germans don't have much time to occupy Italy. This means that the Italian front comes to rest on the old Trentino front from WWI, more or less.

Allies invade Sardinia and Corsica instead of Sicily allowing them to later invade Italy north of Rome, instead of having to spend spend the better part of 2 years slogging their way of the Italian peninsula

The Sicilian beaches were within fighter range. Sardinia, let alone Corsica, could be within the range of carrier-based naval fighters. It's a very significant difference.

That said, both proposals make sure Italy is out of the war earlier. The Allies did have a plan for an airborne occupation of Rome, and they would have carried it out were it not for the fact that the Italian top generals were incompetent sloths who cared more for their own skin than for anything else.

But the Alps are still in the way. You'd want more bomber bases farther North the peninsula, and earlier, which gives an interesting boost to the strategic bombing of Germany. And eventually you may have an attack at the NE corner of Italy in the spring of 1944. I suspect you'd still need landings in France, though, and I don't know whether you can wrap up the ETO before the end of the year anyway.

 

[Ramontxo]

Ritchie falls from his bed and is incapacited home before Gazala and Monty takes command (brooke insists, Gott fall out of his own bed and has to take a few weeks leave whatever) in consecuence Gazala is a British defensive victory. Thought heavily presioned by Churchill Monty takes his time to train an reinforce eight army with as much of what was send to El Alamein as possible, Shermans, aircfafts for the Desert Airforce etc... Now Torch is launched against eastermost Argelia and Tunez while Monty takes Tripoly at the same time and North Africa falls Nov/Dec 1942 instead of March 1943. From them on butterflyes...

 

[Aber]

This is my first thread so be patient if this has been asked before. I did searches for a quicker Allied victory in World War 2 and all the PODs I could find were either before the war or very early in it. I wondering what are some good realistic PODs that that take place after the US enters, that could lead to a quicker victory.

Defeating Japan cannot really be done much faster as it takes time to build up the US navy.

Best case for defeating Germany is probably autumn 1944. This relies on cascading results - clear Africa before the end of 1942; invade Italy early 1943; late summer 1943 landing in Normandy - and full US commitment to Germany First (leading to a possibly longer campaign against Japan).

 

[Magnum]

Italy changes sides before the Germans have taken over the Alpine passes without a fight. Allies can then push through the Ljubljana Gap as early as '42

 

[Magnum]

Defeating Japan cannot really be done much faster as it takes time to build up the US navy.

Best case for defeating Germany is probably autumn 1944. This relies on cascading results - clear Africa before the end of 1942; invade Italy early 1943; late summer 1943 landing in Normandy - and full US commitment to Germany First (leading to a possibly longer campaign against Japan).

There are ample ways in which the Japanese could screw up in the winter of '41

 

[Historyrookie]

Big saturn and the army group A destroyed , or just partly evacuated losing a lot of equipment apart from being a terrible problem in itself for the germans can make the western allies bolder also.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

December 1941. Thats too late for the 'Brits land in France 23 June' scenario. Darn.

 

[Scott Washburn]

Hitler wakes up in the middle of the night on December 11th, 1941, realizes that he actually meant for his message to the German embassy in Washington to read: "Do NOT Declare war on the United States." He trips on his way to the radio room, falls down the stairs and breaks his neck.

 

[Michele]

Italy changes sides before the Germans have taken over the Alpine passes without a fight. Allies can then push through the Ljubljana Gap as early as '42

For the Allies staging the sending of troops to Italy during 1942, fighting back the obvious German reaction that year, and then attacking up there before the winter, Italy should change sides right there at the start of the proposed time frame, December 1941.
Now, while it would make sense for Italy to do so, it's not as if the Italian leadership had that sense. And just doing away with one man, Mussolini, isn't doing much; any replacement might be wise enough not to declare on the USA, yes, but at the time he's firmly in the saddle, January 1942, there is no real reason why he should decide the Axis's fight Italy is already involved in is hopeless.

 

[Michele]

Hitler wakes up in the middle of the night on December 11th, 1941, realizes that he actually meant for his message to the German embassy in Washington to read: "Do NOT Declare war on the United States." He trips on his way to the radio room, falls down the stairs and breaks his neck.

Eh? So Germany is at war with the USA (I very much suspect they'd eventually be even without a German declaration, but let's ignore that since the declaration does go through), but then there isn't Hitler in command? And this is very pernicious to the Axis?

 

[jsb]

What strategy could the Allies take to win more quickly

Does it have to be the allied army's & navy's doing the change?

The quickest POD post 7 Dec 41 would presumably be for the Axis to lose rather than the allies win?

What about SOE kills AH and makes it look like part of the army did it, leading to an army v SS/party civil war.....?

Or a well organized diplomatic early Italian surrender, with US/GB agreeing to the king taking over as an allied power...?

 

[Magnum]

For the Allies staging the sending of troops to Italy during 1942, fighting back the obvious German reaction that year, and then attacking up there before the winter, Italy should change sides right there at the start of the proposed time frame, December 1941.
Now, while it would make sense for Italy to do so, it's not as if the Italian leadership had that sense. And just doing away with one man, Mussolini, isn't doing much; any replacement might be wise enough not to declare on the USA, yes, but at the time he's firmly in the saddle, January 1942, there is no real reason why he should decide the Axis's fight Italy is already involved in is hopeless.

Sorry, miss-typed '43.

Torch was in November '42. Tunisia could have been taken then and there. A more aggressive British push out of Egypt could have annihilated what remained out of PanzerArmee Afrika at the same time. Do away with Benny right then, and Hitler might well overreact (as he nearly did OTL some moths later), forcing the new Italian government into the arms of the Allies. (wanted to write a story along these lines, with the added change that Amadeo, Duke of Aosta is in Italy recuperating from illness, after having had more successes in East Africa at the start of the war, giving him sufficient clout that the Italian establishment rallies to him)

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I have a couple

A very simple one is far more VLR MPAs such as the LR B24 are provided to RAF Coastal command and the USN actual uses its MPA Squadrons were there are actually U Boats - thus winning the Battel of the Atlantic well before May 1943

Bomber Commands Ruhr campaign is not abandoned for the Berlin/city bombing campaign and USAAF concentrate earlier on POL, Power generation (including load sharing - Germany was crap at that) and logistical hubs (both rail and canal)

- It has been claimed (I just cannot recall where I read it???) that the Ruhr campaign cost the Germans more in AFVs 'not produced' as a result of the damage and disruption than were lost on the Eastern front during the same period and also aircraft and 88 gun production did not increase during this period despite great efforts during 1943 to increase numbers.

More landing craft are provided to the ETO than OTL allowing for greater use of Amphibious landings - obviously this would have to be at the expense of Adm Kings desire to fight the mandates campaign in the pacific as war gamed to death in the 30s.

I am sure that the Russians could chime in - I see Big Saturn with bells on has been mentioned above already.

 

[Historyrookie]

big saturn would theoretically happen end december 42 beg january 43 which is also a terrible timing moment for the german army:
- stalingrad is beyond reach
- army group a isolated
- they have already reinforced tunis and are well bottled there, no way back
- they have an accutte manpower shortage
- they still have a a lot of troops at rzhev and need to get them out to stabilize the south as otl but now stavka knows they are going to get them out, so otl succesful retreat complicates
- losses in the axis allies are even more apalling and recovery even more complicated, so even a colective defection is possible

an outright nervous breakdown in okh as a whole is not to be disregarded

 

[M79]

*More German resources into wunderwaffen not usable by war's end

*Take Corsica/Sardinia and focus landings in northern Italy, isolating the peninsula and exposing Austria and Southern France to invasion

*Move into Austria/GrosDeutscheland, unless stopped immediately Germany has to relocate forces as counterweight

 

[Cryhavoc101]

big saturn would theoretically happen end december 42 beg january 43 which is also a terrible timing moment for the german army:
- stalingrad is beyond reach
- army group a isolated
- they have already reinforced tunis and are well bottled there, no way back
- they have an accutte manpower shortage
- they still have a a lot of troops at rzhev and need to get them out to stabilize the south as otl but now stavka knows they are going to get them out, so otl succesful retreat complicates
- losses in the axis allies are even more apalling and recovery even more complicated, so even a colective defection is possible

an outright nervous breakdown in okh as a whole is not to be disregarded

Coupled with an earlier Battle of the Atlantic victory won in late 1942 (no 2nd happy time) and King allocating more Amphibious forces to the ETO with a strategy of containment in the Pacific until Germany is defeated allowing for a Overlord /sledgehammer in the summer of 43.