WI: ERE is also destroyed by the Germanic invasions

[Mario]

With a series of right PoDs, let's consider a scenario where the Germanic migrations (specially the Gothic) destroys the ERE along with the WRE by the late 5th century. 'Destruction' meaning the abolition of the Roman high administration and replacement by Germanic kings and so, similar to what they did in the West.

Possible consequences in the long term:

- The Sassanian Empire might expand easier to Levant, Anatolia, Egypt...
- The Christianism may expand lower than ITTL, but maybe it avoid more of the divisions caused by theological disputes boosted by the OTL ERE.
- Islam, if appears, could either expand even faster (if their neighbouring entities are divided and weak) or not expand at all (if the Sassanians succeed to dominate the region).

 

[God.the.Truth]

The Germanic Tribes will invade but establish their own kingdoms and empires there and convert to Christianity. So there won't be much difference.

 

[Mario]

The Germanic Tribes will invade but establish their own kingdoms and empires there and convert to Christianity. So there won't be much difference.

Do you think they could oppose the Sasanians in the same efficient way if there would be a big military conflict similar to the Byzantine-Sasanian War of 591-628?

 

[God.the.Truth]

Do you think they could oppose the Sasanians in the same efficient way if there would be a big military conflict similar to the Byzantine-Sasanian War of 591-628?

Depends. Since this is a very rich land unlike Germania or Britannia, they would probably establish good sized kingdoms/empires from their confederation after they invade and conquer. If so, yes. They potentially can do it.

 

[God.the.Truth]

From what I think, it will be one confederation of Goths who will probably conquer the ERE and they will establish a new ERE(probably with a different name) on the same territory and rule it. So they can confront the Sassanids. Even it would be the same with the Franks or the Saxons or anyone like that. How other things would go about would be a matter of too many aspects which are a big enterprise.

 

[Mr_Fanboy]

Note that what happened in the west is that Germanic tribes carved out large swathes of Roman territory to form their own kingdoms (Ostrogoths in Italy, Visigoths in Hispania, Vandals in North Africa, Franks in Gaul, etc.), but otherwise tried to preserve the basic structure of Roman government and society, even to the point of nominally declaring themselves vassals of the emperor in Constantinople... which was not good enough for Justinian, who tried to reconquer the west in a more direct fashion. Though 476 is often retroactively designated as the year that the Western Roman Empire because Odoacer deposed Romulus Augustulus at the time, Roman society in Italy did not really collapse until the brutal Gothic Wars instigated by Justinian decades later.

So, say that a point of divergence in the fourth or fifth century allows another branch of the Goths to get lucky and seize Constantinople. Sure, the the short term some of the eastern and southern edges of Byzantine dominion may declare independence or be wrested away by the Persians, but at least Greece and Anatolia will likely default to the rule of whoever the new king of Constantinople happens to be, and he will likely have as much incentive to preserve Greco-Roman institutions and culture as Theoderic did in Italy in our world. This new ruling class will likely Hellenize eventually, and historians will likely come to consider them to be just another dynasty of the same Eastern Roman Empire.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

Do you think they could oppose the Sasanians in the same efficient way if there would be a big military conflict similar to the Byzantine-Sasanian War of 591-628?

Certainly. If we assume the Sassanids develop as otl and the confederacy breaks, then the Germanic kingdoms will most likely be more powerful than the Sassanids, considering the abject state of late Sassanid non-noble armies.

 

[Mario]

Note that what happened in the west is that Germanic tribes carved out large swathes of Roman territory to form their own kingdoms (Ostrogoths in Italy, Visigoths in Hispania, Vandals in North Africa, Franks in Gaul, etc.), but otherwise tried to preserve the basic structure of Roman government and society, even to the point of nominally declaring themselves vassals of the emperor in Constantinople... which was not good enough for Justinian, who tried to reconquer the west in a more direct fashion. Though 476 is often retroactively designated as the year that the Western Roman Empire because Odoacer deposed Romulus Augustulus at the time, Roman society in Italy did not really collapse until the brutal Gothic Wars instigated by Justinian decades later.

A bit off-topic: what could have happened if the Eastern Emperors would have adopted more realistic policies in the West, accepting those 'Barbarian Kings' as real federated entities under their protection, let's say, instead of conquering the Kingdom of the Vandals, accepting them as 'governors of Roman Africa', as well as the Franks as 'governors of Gaul' etc. Of course there is the issue of Arianism with Vandals and Goths, but the later already accepted conversion to Nicene Christianity with time, so a good offer from Constantinople might accelerate the conversions of these tribes.

I assume that in this kind of scenario, feudalism would develope earlier in Europe and the Roman Empire would keep its formal integrity, which would help to keep the Sasanians at bay, maybe also the Arabsl later too.

 

[God.the.Truth]

Certainly. If we assume the Sassanids develop as otl and the confederacy breaks, then the Germanic kingdoms will most likely be more powerful than the Sassanids, considering the abject state of late Sassanid non-noble armies.

Yes. And if the new Germanic kingdom/empire rises like the Carolingian/Frankish Empire, it's even more difficult for the Sassanid Empire than it was with the Byzantines.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Do you think they could oppose the Sasanians in the same efficient way if there would be a big military conflict similar to the Byzantine-Sasanian War of 591-628?

If the ERE is carved up into a plural number of Germanic kingdoms (say, Anatolia, Syria, Egypt, Greece, in various configurations), i can actually see business being much easier for the Persians as they'll be able to play them against one another.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

If the ERE is carved up into a plural number of Germanic kingdoms (say, Anatolia, Syria, Egypt, Greece, in various configurations), i can actually see business being much easier for the Persians as they'll be able to play them against one another.

Did Byzantium having a single polity save it in 602 CE? Simply because you have a single empire, does not mean there is not deep complexity to it and counter factions. A divided section of kingdoms may be able to form coalitions and further, division and strife breed power and lessen complacency and stagnation. There is no guarantee that if the Germanic invaders break Byzantium, that when the Sassanid kingdom diminishes in the 6th century, that a Germanic lord along the frontiers does not invade Iraq and take advantage of the situation.

 

[God.the.Truth]

If the ERE is carved up into a plural number of Germanic kingdoms (say, Anatolia, Syria, Egypt, Greece, in various configurations), i can actually see business being much easier for the Persians as they'll be able to play them against one another.

Any Germanic tribal confederation that will invade in that case, will make ways into what was the Persian Empire into Kurdistan and Mesopotamia and settle to form kingdoms/empires there. So that butterflies this battles and the conflicts entirely. It would look entirely different. The scenario goes very far fetched.

 

[Byzantion]

With a series of right PoDs, let's consider a scenario where the Germanic migrations (specially the Gothic) destroys the ERE along with the WRE by the late 5th century. 'Destruction' meaning the abolition of the Roman high administration and replacement by Germanic kings and so, similar to what they did in the West.

Possible consequences in the long term:

- The Sassanian Empire might expand easier to Levant, Anatolia, Egypt...
- The Christianism may expand lower than ITTL, but maybe it avoid more of the divisions caused by theological disputes boosted by the OTL ERE.
- Islam, if appears, could either expand even faster (if their neighbouring entities are divided and weak) or not expand at all (if the Sassanians succeed to dominate the region).

Maybe we see Ostrogoth control over parts of the Empire. A magister militum like situation ? Maybe even the Vandals held Africa in this timeline. Would the Goths, who sacked the ERE are able or willing to stabilize or defend the Empire ( against huns, Sassanids ) ?. If things play out like OTL similiar, would a Germanized Goth led ERE be able to defend itself against Slavs, Turks, Bulgars, Petshnegs and Arabs ? Germanians would be still in the minority, so revolts of Greek-Roman segments are always possible.

 

[TyranicusMaximus]

One way this scenario could play out is described in @Jaydoh 's timeline Cadavera Vero Innumera. Parts of it perhaps stick too closely to history, a religious group arises that unites the Arabs at about the same time despite different conditions.

In it there are two major Eastern Roman successor states, Achaea and Aegyptus that hold on to their respective areas even as the central government collapses. In the West Noviodunum forms the core of a rather successful successor, avoiding Frankish conquest.