Japan’s economy took off from American military contracts in the Korean War and early Cold War. South Korea took off considerably later. Either way there’s no way PRC could urbanize in the 60’s.
Thanks for the insight on Liu. Maybe under him PRC would have adopted the Yugoslavia model, i.e small businesses still permitted.
Urbanization would not have gone as quickly as it did in 90s and 2000s. Current urbanization is driven by an export oriented economy. A slow urbanization rate would have started.
Following is my logic behind the urbanization:
China has a huge urban population since 50s. According to 1953 census, 80 out of 583 million people were living in urban centers (420 towns and cities) or 14%. Most of towns and cities had population of 20,000 to 50,000 people.
Consider this, China just came out of a civil war. We can assume that war displaced a lot of people. The urban population could have been bigger prior the war. Once Liu had started to focus on economy, demand for labor would drive the people back to the cities again. Unlike Japan and Korea, China would not have 50% or 60% of population live in cities. However, a 20% to 30% could still be possible.
Or I would be wrong. That is why I like the alternative history discussion - endless possibilities.