AHC: Prevent 9/11 From Happening

NOTE: If someone else has earlier posted a
similar thread, then disregard this one. If
not- on the 18th anniversary...

Again, is this possible? If so, how? In retros-
pect(which of course is always 20/20)there
are many clues. But as re 9/11- as was also the case with Pearl Harbor exactly 70 years earlier-there was so much “noise”, so much else going on, that it seems to have been most difficult for the intelligence com-
minity, &/or high-ranking officials, to figure
out what was going to happen until it actually did. OK- thoughts people!
 
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Prevent the US from being so close to Israel, as well as having military bases in Saudi Arabia (these are two "reasons" UBL himself gave repeatedly). Having radical Islam being less appealing to those groups the hijackers would come from would also help. Of course, those butterflies are gonna wipe away a lot more than 9/11.
 
It seems the OP wanted a more immediate POD...

Having the CIA and FBI more willing to work together would help. OTL they wouldn't have uncovered the plot if they had a few more weeks, closer cooperation might have made the difference.
 

Nephi

Banned
I’m not sure I understand you Nephi. Are you saying divert the terrorists(somehow)to
Moscow?

No, I'm saying never create them to begin with, no us involvement at all, maybe the two powers even come to some agreement.

And Afghanistan is set up with a communist government, the Soviets stamp out the insurgents and terrorist, because didn't they invade for similar reasons?

And the US gets something else in exchange for letting them do this.
 
Watching The Looming Tower, that would definitely seem to be the case. The intelligence community knew of UBL, knew he was a threat, but inter-agency competition and mistrust seems to have derailed any chance of stopping him early.

So *sigh* what else is new?
 
It's been claimed that there was a serious opening to remove the Taliban in 1997:
What happened was this: In April of 1997 the Taliban launched a major offensive aimed at taking control over the northern third of Afghanistan, which to that point had remained free and under the control of regional leaders who were commonly referred to as warlords.

One of those regional leaders, General Malick, tricked the Taliban and managed to capture almost all of their frontline troops, along with most of their heavy weaponry. It was an utter disaster for the Taliban. The road to the capital, Kabul, was wide open. The Taliban were totally vulnerable and could have easily been wiped out.

I sent a message to Commander Masood and to others that Kabul should be liberated and that the King should be brought back to oversee a transition government, which then would hopefully evolve into a democratically elected government, perhaps like what happened in Spain where the King returned and it evolved into a democratic government; but before the anti-Taliban forces could strike, Assistant Secretary of State Rick Indefurth and American U.N. Ambassador Bill Richardson flew to northern Afghanistan and convinced the anti-Taliban leadership that this was not the time for an offensive. Instead, they insisted this was the time for a cease-fire and an arms embargo.

This clearly was a statement of U.S. policy. Two top foreign policy leaders in the Clinton administration flew to northern Afghanistan to convince the anti-Taliban forces not to take advantage of their one opportunity to soundly defeat and, thus eliminate, this enemy.

These Clinton appointees saved the Taliban; and let me underscore, by this time the evil nature of these Islamic Nazis was clearly evident. Right after the cease-fire and the release of prisoners brokered by these Clinton administration geniuses, the Pakistanis began a Berlin-like airlift to resupply and re-equip the Taliban, obviously financed with Saudi money. If I knew of this massive resupply effort, certainly the Clinton administration officials who had set up this scenario knew about it.

So why were the anti-Taliban leaders not notified of this situation? Why did we continue an arms embargo on the anti-Taliban forces, even as the Taliban were rearmed and resupplied? Well, the answer is it was U.S. policy.
 
Prevent the US from being so close to Israel, as well as having military bases in Saudi Arabia (these are two "reasons" UBL himself gave repeatedly). Having radical Islam being less appealing to those groups the hijackers would come from would also help. Of course, those butterflies are gonna wipe away a lot more than 9/11.

I don’t think you stop the US from being close to Israel without royally fucking with the Middle East. For one, if Israel exists in its OTL location, it’s going to get swept up in Cold War politics, full stop. I suppose it could fall in line with the Soviets, but I don’t see it happening under Stalin unless Stalin has more of a hate-boner for someone else and he can use Israel to stick it to them (Stalin was notoriously anti-Jewish, though it was more typical anti-Semitism than Nazi-level crazy-fuckitude.)

So one possibility is to move Israel in the 1940s, possibly by giving the land that ended up being transferred to Poland from defeated Germany to a new Jewish State. Perhaps we call it Zion; I don’t know. No Israel in the Middle East, no pissed-off radical Muslims attacking their ally in the West.

Another is to avert the US bases in Saudi Arabia. Perhaps they end up somewhere else more innocuous, like Turkey. Osama bin Laden May still be pissed off but he wouldn’t be able to recruit for al-Qaeda based on US military bases in secular Turkey.

Another is if the GOP in Congress says to Clinton after the embassy bombings, fuck it, let Clinton get the bastards who did this. Rather than chucking up a barrage of cruise missiles and calling it a day, America sends in forces to kill or capture bin Laden and his top lieutenants, and al-Qaeda is completely fucked as far as 9/11 goes.
 
(A) Unfortunately, you can't stop everyone, and (B) this is what happens when you have 590347695769057656 different alphabet soup agencies.

Why Analytical I think you’re exaggerating!
Last time I counted there were only 590347
695769057655 different federal agencies! And they ALL get along just fine!
 

Deleted member 94680

That's the thing, though. I think we're just kicking the can down the road by preventing 9/11. Eventually, there's probably going to be a high-casualty terrorist attack on American soil.

Not necessarily. If you prevent 9/11 by stopping AQ in the 90s when there were serious opportunities, or even in the aftermath of the USS Cole bombings, then you’re not kicking the can anywhere.
 
That's the thing, though. I think we're just kicking the can down the road by preventing 9/11. Eventually, there's probably going to be a high-casualty terrorist attack on American soil.

That is possible, though it’s hard to say who would pull it off and how it would affect events afterwards. A far-right McVeigh wannabe has as much chance as some Wahhabist dickweed, and if I had to guess, it won’t be planes used as weapons.
 
the most the books I've read Osama bin Laden begin to think the United States was very weak because of the battle of Mogadishu.
many people consider this to be the one of the first Domino to fall that led to 9/11 but I really don't consider that to be the case but it is significant.

if Bill Clinton didn't pull back US forces and decided to go back into the City and crush the area that supported Mohamed Farrah Aidid.
Osama bin Laden might not have seen the USS week it got a black eye but it destroyed the area afterwards. this is according to most of the delta forces
and a some officers which were on the ground.

I really don't know George Bush Senior or Bill Clinton could have prevented it but I do know if they were a little bit more aggressive with foreign policy we probably have a decent chance of preventing a lot of crap. I'm speaking with hindsight hear these people were going off their gut instincts in a time when the world was a drastic change with the Soviet Union's collapse and a massive power vacuum to fill on the world stage.
 
I

So one possibility is to move Israel in the 1940s, possibly by giving the land that ended up being transferred to Poland from defeated Germany to a new Jewish State. Perhaps we call it Zion; I don’t know. No Israel in the Middle East, no pissed-off radical Muslims attacking their ally in the West.

East Prussia, are you serious? You would have to ethnically cleanse the area of Poles as well as Germans for that to work. Historically they around number 3 in antisemitism behind Nazi Germany and Russia. That is about it.
 
Not necessarily. If you prevent 9/11 by stopping AQ in the 90s when there were serious opportunities, or even in the aftermath of the USS Cole bombings, then you’re not kicking the can anywhere.
Even if you crush AQ, there'll be others unhappy with America, people willing to pay, and people willing to die.
 
East Prussia, are you serious? You would have to ethnically cleanse the area of Poles as well as Germans for that to work. Historically they around number 3 in antisemitism behind Nazi Germany and Russia. That is about it.
Obviously, you could prove that Polish Antisemitism, which "Poles sucked with their mothers' milk", was well above Lithuanian, Latvian,Ukrainian or Hungarian level?
 
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