Dixieland: The Country of Tomorrow, Everyday (yet another Confederate TL)

Chapter 50 - A Condo Divided
A Condo Divided
The impact of the American entry into the war was swift and immediate. The flood of American ironclads pouring down the Eastern Seaboard of North America quickly turned the numerical tables on the Spanish, with the American fleet, newly restocked after the Great Pacific War (albeit mostly with surplus Civil War craft) vastly outnumbered the Spanish Fleet. On the other hand, the two Spanish flagships were vastly superior to the American Navy in terms of technology, speed, and firepower, allowing them to run circles around the American fleet, dealing horrible losses. However, this necessitated breaking the blockade of Cuba and the Confederate coast, which sparked supplies flowing back into the hands of Confederate-Cuban troops, including several US-manufactured artillery guns. This proved a horrible loss for the Spanish garrisons, which quickly saw their redoubts across the island fall to Confederate forces. The remnants of the garrisons quickly fled to Santiago de Cuba to make a last stand, as Confederate and Cuban forces began digging in for a siege.

The Spaniards weren't ready to throw in the towel quite yet. The Spanish Navy was still essentially winning every confrontation at sea against the Americans, which horrified the American public and reassured the Spanish public. In response, the Americans sailed a fleet and army down the Mississippi River, under the famed engineer, General Orville Babcock. In response, the Spanish announced that all slaves in the vicinity of New Orleans would be freed if they decided to fight for the Spanish, which thousands did. In response, Governor Beauregard of Louisiana (and thus commander of the Louisiana State Militia) announced that a similar deal would be given to Confederate slaves. Of course, he had gained assurances that the Confederate government would compensate Louisiana for manumission costs, since they weren't paying it themselves. The Spanish move horrified Washington D.C. President Clay refused to accept the notion that American troops would be on the other side of freed slaves, possibly putting them back into slavery. Under American pressure, General Babcock made an ultimatum to Governor Beauregard, demanding that he respect the Spanish guarantees even if the Spanish Army were defeated. After being financially reassured, Beauregard agreed. The American-Confederate Army fought a Spanish Army in a battle famous for having freed slave auxiliaries on both sides. With their advantage in artillery largely negated by American guns and supply somewhat interrupted by American raids, the Spanish garrison eventually crumbled in the face of superior US/CS numbers, surrendering.

As the assault on Mobile was cancelled due to lack of naval superiority, the only Spanish foothold on mainland America left was Charleston. An army under "Lord Protector Jackson" marched down south, combining with the remnants of the army they had originally defeated. Jackson's combined "Christian Confederate Army" smashed into the Spanish garrison outside of Charleston. Although poorly equipped and poorly trained, Jackson's men had incredible zeal and greatly outnumbered the Spanish, who were horrified that firing volleys of fire and raking mass infantry formations with artillery shrapnel did absolutely nothing to stop their charge. Very quickly, the Spanish Army was overrun, being forced to surrender, albeit having inflicted horrible losses on Jackson's Army. Jackson himself was killed leading the charge, which turned over control of the Christian Commonwealth to his designated successor, a fellow Confederate veteran and one of the few planters that went along with Jackson's Commonwealth plan, Daniel Lindsay Russell. The final charge of Jackson would be one of the most famous scenes in postwar Confederate history. In Montgomery, Mahone sighed deeply, because he thought Jackson was a total nut and that Russell would be easier to deal with.

With the Spanish threat to the mainland Confederate States mostly ended, the Spanish were about to throw in the towel when another incident shocked the Confederate President. Louisiana and Mississippi were largely under control of CS-US troops. Due to Mahone's troops controlling Montgomery, this meant that most of the deep Southern states with the highest slave populations were directly under military control, with their legislatures essentially being held hostage. One exception to this was South Carolina (where the Christian Army held the State Legislature captive). However, Charleston was largely left in rubble due to being totally looted by Spanish forces trying to compel a Confederate surrender, as was New Orleans. Mobile was not occupied, but a fire broke out during the Spanish shelling of Mobile, which ultimately burned it to the ground. The three largest cities of the Confederacy, New Orleans, Charleston, and Mobile had all been destroyed.

Other border states, such as Texas, Oklahoma, Virginia, Tennessee, and Florida all had smaller slave populations (ironically, Florida's slave population went down due to an influx of Cuban refugees during the war, which the Confederacy was obligated to accept.) The final exception to this was the State of Georgia, which was notably spared much fighting. Combined with the fact that Virginia and Tennessee had all been devastated during the War of Secession (and not entirely recovered yet), the top five largest cities and centers of wealth in the Confederacy were all in Georgia, Savannah, Alexandria, Augusta, Columbus, and Atlanta (the war had ended just before Union forces marched into Georgia).

Needless to say, the Georgia political establishment was the least chastened in the country. As a result, the long-time Governor of Georgia, Robert Toombs, denounced Mahone as a Latin American-style military junta general, a tyrant, an illegal President, and worst of all to him, a miscegenationist. Georgia then declared secession from the Confederacy, copying the exact same Articles of Secession that Georgia had passed in 1861. A mixture of North Carolina refugees and the official South Carolina government in Columbia also immediately signed onto the declaration. In addition, the Florida legislature collapsed into a brawl. Secession failed, but most of the countries of Northern Florida, copying West Virginia in reverse, declared their secession from Florida as the new state of North Florida. Delegates from North Florida, South Carolina (well, half of it), North Carolina's government-in-exile, and Georgia immediately declared the "Provisional Confederate States of America", inviting Spanish intervention to protect their new nation.

Spain had no real desire to support a slaver rebellion for ideological reasons, but they figured this would be an excellent diplomatic chip to play. New Spanish armies immediately landed in Savannah, Georgia, intent on dealing the Confederacy a fatal blow. The war between the "Nationals" and "Provos" had begun, as Confederates immediately turned on each other. The Provos attacked the Nationals as miscegationists, "negro lovers", puppets of America, and "traitors to the white Southron race", while the Nationals attacked the Provos as "crypto-Catholics", "defeatists", and "traitors to the white Southron race." President Mahone immediately gave a speech, declaring that the 1861 secession was not the secession of states, but rather the secession of an "ancient Southron people" from "the foreign Yankees", who he then congratulated as "good neighbors, by the way." As such, he declared that individual states had no right to secede from the Confederacy. The speech did not convince many people. Many of the occupied states (MS and AL in particular), probably had a Provo-majority, which meant constant guerrilla attacks on National troops. Similarly, National sympathizers, smaller in numbers in Georgia, also attacked the Provos. The internal civil war often turned gruesome, as innocent civilians on both sides were targeted in reprisals and in terror attacks, by two sides that both viewed each other as race traitors.

Mahone only kept his control of these states by blatantly copying Lincoln, which at the very least helped keep American commitment. Mahone issued a Confederate Emancipation Proclamation, which declared that any state that did not erect a Nationalist government would be subject to uncompensated emancipation at the end of the war. In terror at their belief that the "Madman General" was not kidding, many Alabama and Mississippi planters declared loyalist governments that excluded them from the Proclamation, as did South Carolina (a dueling government aligned with the Christian Commonwealth in the ruins of Charleston), most of Florida outside of the North, and Governor Beauregard of Louisiana. In many ways, Mahone used planter greed against the planter class, promising the spoils of Georgia (easily the richest state in the otherwise devastated Confederacy) to loyalist slave-holding planters who were also economically suffering. In this clever way, Mahone played off both his American supporters and local planters. However, it sparked another problem for the Provisional Confederacy - slaves immediately leaving their plantations in anticipation of freedom, which was left with brutal reprisals. Many escaped slaves also took up arms, brutally ransacking, robbing, and murdering innocent whites (including Nationals!) across the PCSA. They were only a relatively small minority of escaped slaves, but they still proved a massive propaganda boost for the PCSA and also led to a total collapse in public order in the PCSA, which furthered the mass killings between Provos and Nationals. Ironically, one of Georgia's leading planters and advocates of the secession was himself almost killed by a Provo mob, when a mob of Provos tried to kill all of his slaves in fear that they were about to "revolt", and he indignantly stood against them in defense of his "property." Interestingly, only the escaping slaves saved him from being murdered, not because they particularly liked him, but because one deeply Christian slave thought it was wrong to leave any man to die like that. Different stories of both brutality and compassion, revenge and forgiveness, spread across the South, as the Spanish-Confederate war had very much expanded in scope, just weeks before it was set to end peacefully.
 
A interesting aspect in slavery was White admixture in salves, yes it have horrible implication in the short term (rape), but it also had some interesting social ones in the longer ones. 5% of all slaves was born with a White father. As long as new slaves was imported front Africa the result was a relative stable average admixture, but as it stopped the slaves White admixture increased by 5% every generation. Here we have had one generation more of slavery and one generation of freedom of the womb. The result will be that European admixture will go from the low 20ties percent to the low 30ties. This of course will be averages, some population like the Gullah have little European admixture, while other have more. In OTL this somewhat averaged out because the ban on interracial marriage. But that was a result of external pressure. The question is whether segregation will be set up, if not we can see a similarity to Brazil with White, Mixed and Black.
 
A interesting aspect in slavery was White admixture in salves, yes it have horrible implication in the short term (rape), but it also had some interesting social ones in the longer ones. 5% of all slaves was born with a White father. As long as new slaves was imported front Africa the result was a relative stable average admixture, but as it stopped the slaves White admixture increased by 5% every generation. Here we have had one generation more of slavery and one generation of freedom of the womb. The result will be that European admixture will go from the low 20ties percent to the low 30ties. This of course will be averages, some population like the Gullah have little European admixture, while other have more. In OTL this somewhat averaged out because the ban on interracial marriage. But that was a result of external pressure. The question is whether segregation will be set up, if not we can see a similarity to Brazil with White, Mixed and Black.

Very interesting point you made! TBQF, I don't think that actually has much of a social impact. Ultimately, the one-drop rule in America, that predates 1860, means that someone who is 50% African descent (like say, Barack Obama) is just treated as black. So 20% to 30% isn't enough to change that. That being said, you're right in pointing out that it leads to more room for colorism among black Americans, but I don't think that's enough room to create a third racial category. Segregation is interesting because it was a pretty mixed situation between 1865-1890. Segregation was very common, but it was different from local area to local area (with the degree of segregation differing wildly, often influenced by class divides). So I guess that's more like Brazil. The legally-mandated, no-exceptions, uniformly forced, violently enforced segregation of Jim Crow was actually a Jim Crow innovation. I remember reading a South Carolina newspaper editorial mocking the proposed disenfranchisement of blacks by going "lol, and what's next? Are you going to ban blacks from going to the same hotels and restaurants too?"
 
Very interesting point you made! TBQF, I don't think that actually has much of a social impact. Ultimately, the one-drop rule in America, that predates 1860, means that someone who is 50% African descent (like say, Barack Obama) is just treated as black. So 20% to 30% isn't enough to change that. That being said, you're right in pointing out that it leads to more room for colorism among black Americans, but I don't think that's enough room to create a third racial category. Segregation is interesting because it was a pretty mixed situation between 1865-1890. Segregation was very common, but it was different from local area to local area (with the degree of segregation differing wildly, often influenced by class divides). So I guess that's more like Brazil. The legally-mandated, no-exceptions, uniformly forced, violently enforced segregation of Jim Crow was actually a Jim Crow innovation. I remember reading a South Carolina newspaper editorial mocking the proposed disenfranchisement of blacks by going "lol, and what's next? Are you going to ban blacks from going to the same hotels and restaurants too?"

But one of the aspect is that a African American with 30-40% European admixture will produce children with a White person will often be White with no visible or at least obvious African physical traits. If the state and society doesn't enforce brutal anti-miscegenation policies like in OTL, we will see the rise of either a (much larger than in OTL) groups of White people with known African ancestry or we will see the rise of a large group of White looking African Americans, especially if the South lack the pressure valve which was the Great Migration, which allowed, this group to travel far away and simply Passing into Whiteness. Both will have significant social, ideological and political effects on CSA.

Also the one drop rule didn't really exist, there was Whites in the south with known African ancestry, the quantity of this ancestry was simply lowered, from White people having to be 15/16 White before and after the Civil War to 31/32 White in the 20th century.
 
HOLY SHIT this is some absolutely spectacular political chaos. The "war between the states" has nothing on this mess. Welp, the south is about to get devastated for the second time in twenty years.

Poor Stonewall Jackson. He died gloriously, but probably not at a good time considering the crisis about to happen.

I wonder if the USA will try to intervene in cases where pro-slavery forces seem to be getting an upper hand?

Shame the Spanish lose the war after all, but at least they managed to avoid getting humiliated on the high seas and perhaps might get to keep some of their colonial empire (not cuba of course)

Also glad to see Belgium lose the Congo. And again, spectacular chaos.
 
Man, oh man.

The Confederacy is now facing its worst nightmare: secession within secession from hardcore planter nationalists.

HOLY SHIT this is some absolutely spectacular political chaos. The "war between the states" has nothing on this mess. Welp, the south is about to get devastated for the second time in twenty years.

This new Confederate civil war is a crisis the planters themselves made.

Poor Stonewall Jackson. He died gloriously, but probably not at a good time considering the crisis about to happen.

At the very least, he died knowing he blooded the nose of those planters and set them into a tailspin.

I wonder if the USA will try to intervene in cases where pro-slavery forces seem to be getting an upper hand?

The USA has two goals: weaken the Confederacy and end slavery. If Washington is smart, they'll accomplish both.


Also glad to see Belgium lose the Congo. And again, spectacular chaos.

But remember, most colonial empires were little better.
 
Secession failed, but most of the countries of Northern Florida, copying West Virginia in reverse, declared their secession from Florida as the new state of North Florida.

Wasn't Southern Florida pretty much just Seminoles and alligators at the time? Don't see why Florida didn't just secede outright, unless the official state legislature was, ahem, coerced.

Great stuff, though.
 
Wasn't Southern Florida pretty much just Seminoles and alligators at the time? Don't see why Florida didn't just secede outright, unless the official state legislature was, ahem, coerced.

Great stuff, though.

Seminoles, alligators, Cuban refugees, and I guess some random immigrants from Europe. The Cubans needless to say, know who they're siding with.
 
I love the twists and turns of this TL. Its not a straightforward Confederate TL where they seem perfect, but really highlights the flaws. I think that is what really grabs peoples attention, certainly got mine.
 
Wasn't Southern Florida pretty much just Seminoles and alligators at the time? Don't see why Florida didn't just secede outright, unless the official state legislature was, ahem, coerced.

Great stuff, though.
I agree. I'm not sure when half of the population of Florida iOTL was in cities south of what are now the Border counties. Florida south of Ocala is more populated iTTL?
 
Chapter 51 - The Empire Strikes Back
The Empire Strikes Back
One of the most controversial acts of the Mexican Empire was the dramatic reversal of the Liberal program of confiscating land from the church and from indigenous communities. The Liberal program of Juarez was intended to transform indigenous native Mexicans, like Juarez himself, into self-sufficient yeoman farmers. However in practice, the forced breakup of indigenous peasant lands had the effect of merely subordinating them to massive hacienda plantations. Emperor Maximilian, backed by Mexico's Conservatives, demanded a stop to this process (largely to protect the Church). This greatly enhanced both the power of the church and the integrity of indigenous communities. This had massive impacts on Mexican politics. Both the Church and indigenous communities would be bedrock pillars of support for the Empire, but it also alienated much of the liberal middle-class as well as many small yeoman farmers. Landlords, traditionally the bedrock support of conservative Mexican regimes, were actually quite split on this. Two of their interests actually conflicted with each other - hardcore religiosity vs. the profit motive. Ultimately however, Diaz led a significant faction of Hacienda owners with liberal leanings in continuing to support the government, as they still significantly profited from external investment. Maximilian, who had some liberal sympathies, eagerly sought foreign investment and adopted most of Diaz's legal reforms to property investment, sparking American, German, and Austrian investment in the mines of Northern Mexico. Diaz's faction remained fairly happy as long as the money was flowing in and the hacienda-owners were profiting, which they were.

Northern Mexico also became a remarkably popular place for Catholic Germans to immigrate to, especially in light of increasing anti-Catholic sentiment in the United States. Also, many Germans were under the belief that Mexico would be just like Germany due to their German king. They were largely wrong, but it was probably too late to go back to Germany once you landed in Mexico, so one might as well make do. In particular, Bavaria, Baden, and Wurtemburg became common places to emigrate from, because their economies suffered greatly due to the economic cold war between Austria-Hungary and North Germany. The Zollverein customs union collapsed shortly after the Austro-French alliance, which meant goods in the German market often had to traverse complex and extremely confusing regulations put on by Prussians and Austrians to spite the other side. A symbolic compliment to either side would be met by trade sanctions by the other side, which often confused and annoyed anyone trying to do business. Many frustrated Bavarian and Austrian businessmen moved to Mexico instead.

Luckily for the Mexicans however, German investment was not that dominant. The North Germans and Austrians, or at least their governments, despised each other, and thus neither could get a true foothold of influence on the Mexican imperial government. America was the #1 investor, but they were counterbalanced by France, the #2 investor, with Britain often wading in to make sure neither of those two nations had too much influence. Maximilian I's reign was thus marked by rapid economic growth and the creation of a fairly robust monarchy, even though the rapid growth was disproportionately accruing to Hacienda owners (predominantly in the North) aligned to the Crown, as well as the Church. However, wages for new industrial workers, a rapidly growing class, remained poor, which created frustration on that end.

Mexico remained largely neutral, albeit supportive of Cuban independence, in the Confederate-Spanish War, largely because their navy was still under construction. The Mexicans, unlike the Spanish, tried to make all of their ships at home (with French support), which made them less advanced that the top-of-the-line Spanish ships from North Germany. Under the "Turno" system where Diaz and Miramon would switch-off as Prime Minister in quasi-democratic elections, Miramon was the current Prime Minister. Both were happy to more or less not rock the boat, since the current state of affairs in Mexico was acceptable to both. Diaz liked the industrial development that accrued wealth to wealthy Liberal Mexicans, while Miramon enjoyed the fact that this took place in context of a society dominated by the strength of the Church, which still remained responsible for all education and owned vast tracts of land. Their pro-Cuban stance remained despite great annoyance at the Confederate States, which hosted Republican remnant rebels under figures such as Catarino Garza, who would often strike at Mexican military camps from across the Texan border. In contrast, cooperation between US and Mexican forces became the norm, especially during the Apache Wars. Many intellectuals in America loathed the Mexican monarchy, but most American businessmen favored positive relations with Mexico (to protect their investments).

However, the Empire found a way to fix all of those problems at once. Shortly after the creation of the Provisional Confederate States of America, the CSA decision to crush the rebellion with force, much like the Battle of Fort Sumter, pushed some additional states into the hands of the Provos. A civil war immediately broke out in Texas between the Provos and the Nationals, as amazingly neither had a sufficient quorum in the state legislature to go either way. However, the Provos quickly took the military upper hand, as Provos in occupied Louisiana quickly crossed the border to join up with the Provos in Texas. An opportunity had fallen straight into their lap.

After a short deliberation, Imperial Mexican forces crossed the Texan border, claiming that they were "preserving the territorial integrity of the Confederate States of America in accordance with international law." Neither the Americans or Confederates trusted them at all, but one could not simply turn away an "ally." Imperial Mexican troops, reasonably well-drilled after two decades of peace and prosperity, easily crushed Provo forces. National militias, realizing that they couldn't reasonably fight the Mexicans, decided to play along, and a joint Mexican-National army liberated most of Texas, causing the Provo rebellion in the West to collapse, leaving only the territory centered in Georgia. Imperial Mexican forces turned over the Texas state capitol to the Nationals, but much to no one's surprise, the Mexicans announced that although the Treaty of Velasco was rightfully signed between Mexico and Texas (recognizing Texan independence), the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo was signed only between Mexico and the US, with the CSA not being a successor state to the United States. As a result of this, the Mexicans announced that the Texas-Mexico border would remain, as outlined in the Treaty of Velasco, the Nueces River, not the Rio Grande.

In many ways, this blatant land grab was as far as Mexico wanted to go. The rest of Texas was predominantly slave-based, and the Mexicans did not quite want to add that into their country. Meanwhile, South Texas was much more lightly populated, with a heavily Mexican population. To secure their dominion, the Mexicans immediately declared slavery illegal in South Tejas (there were not many slaves), feeling confident that the world would not allow the Confederates to re-legalize slavery there. Finally, South Texas was the area of operation for Republican rebels, and this allowed the Imperial Mexican Army to fully mobilize to crush them.

President Mahone was outraged, but realized he could do very little. The Americans had no appetite for war against Mexico and the CSA couldn't possibly defeat both Mexico and an internal rebellion at the same time. The CSA officially declared that it would refuse to accept Mexico's illegal annexation of South Texas, but also noted that it would not contest the Mexican claim with force. After all, the internal rebellion still had to be crushed. Luckily for the Confederacy, the time to do so had come. Mahone's army, now under the command of General Patrick Cleburne, had marched up to Tennessee, where they linked up with the U.S. Army under General Sherman, ready to march into Georgia.
 
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Great update.

Just one small thing I wanted to mention: Spain may have purchased its best ships from abroad but it did have several shipyards of its own (particularly in Bilbao but also Ferrol and Cadiz) and they were quite active in this era so many of their lighter ships would certainly be locally built.
 
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When you thought things had reached their height, Mexico calls to get Texas back.

The rest of Mexico was predominantly slave-based, and the Mexicans did not quite want to add that into their country.
I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean. I think you are trying to say Mexico is opposed to slavery based on context, but this is a weird way to say that.

Also, what would be the closest OTL equivalents to the two Spanish ironclads? I'm curious what combat power they posses exactly. Side note, since there is a lot of naval warfare going on in the Great Cuban War, I wonder in what ways this might alter the course of naval technology development? I'm not well-versed in that myself. Anyone here more nerdy than I am who can say if this has a chance of discouraging the trend of mixed battery sizes that prevailed in OTL until Tsushima?
 
When you thought things had reached their height, Mexico calls to get Texas back.


I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean. I think you are trying to say Mexico is opposed to slavery based on context, but this is a weird way to say that.

Also, what would be the closest OTL equivalents to the two Spanish ironclads? I'm curious what combat power they posses exactly. Side note, since there is a lot of naval warfare going on in the Great Cuban War, I wonder in what ways this might alter the course of naval technology development? I'm not well-versed in that myself. Anyone here more nerdy than I am who can say if this has a chance of discouraging the trend of mixed battery sizes that prevailed in OTL until Tsushima?
I think it should read "The rest of Texas was predominately slave-based..." Slavery in Texas was always in East Texas close to the Louisiana and Arkansas borders. I'd be surprised if the area south of the Nuches had a thousand slaves.
 
I think it should read "The rest of Texas was predominately slave-based..." Slavery in Texas was always in East Texas close to the Louisiana and Arkansas borders. I'd be surprised if the area south of the Nuches had a thousand slaves.

Yes, this exactly, I'm correcting it right now. :)
 
There is a problem here. The border of the United States of America is fixed from the Pacific to where OTL New mexico, Texas and Mexico come together. However the Nuches doesn't go anywhere near that far West. In fact as far as I can tell, the North end of the watershed of the Nuches on the Western Branch is about the same distance from the Gulf of Mexico as it is to the OTL state of New Mexico. So what is the western half of the de facto Mexican-CSA border?
 
There is a problem here. The border of the United States of America is fixed from the Pacific to where OTL New mexico, Texas and Mexico come together. However the Nuches doesn't go anywhere near that far West. In fact as far as I can tell, the North end of the watershed of the Nuches on the Western Branch is about the same distance from the Gulf of Mexico as it is to the OTL state of New Mexico. So what is the western half of the de facto Mexican-CSA border?

The Mexicans and Confederates aren't quite sure either. This will probably end up a problem.
 
Texas's limited slavery scope is no better represented than the fact that only 30% of Texas's population were slaves around 1860-1861 as opposed to the other states who had their slave population between the high forties and mid fifties.
 
There is a problem here. The border of the United States of America is fixed from the Pacific to where OTL New mexico, Texas and Mexico come together. However the Nuches doesn't go anywhere near that far West. In fact as far as I can tell, the North end of the watershed of the Nuches on the Western Branch is about the same distance from the Gulf of Mexico as it is to the OTL state of New Mexico. So what is the western half of the de facto Mexican-CSA border?

The Mexicans and Confederates aren't quite sure either. This will probably end up a problem.

Actually, looking at it, they're probably just reverting the old borders. Which as far as I can tell, is what you get if you draw a straight line from the Western end of the Nuches River to the New Mexico border. Though it's not quite settled yet.

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I was also thinking about Confederate North Borneo. There are two possible threats to it. The principal one is of course Spain, which had previously tried to claim Sabah and who would potentially see it as another bargaining chip. If they did bother with the operation, they had an existing force in the Philippines easily capable of seizing it and the Confederates had no way of reinforcing the place. The second. less likely (and a risk for both the Confederates and the Spanish) is that the Muslims living in North Borneo or the Southern Philippines (Moros) would take advantage of one or both of the colonial powers' momentary preoccupation with one another and try to revolt. Even if North Borneo did not revolt though, the locals would find a plantation society of highly racialistic, arrogant, primarily Southern Baptist colonialists somewhat less than pleasant and I don't think they'd be especially cooperative should the Spanish Pacific squadron show up.
 
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