What if prompt rightist victory in Spain in 1936?

[raharris1973]

What if the rightist coup against the Popular Front government in Spain in 1936 succeeded quickly?

What are the consequences for Spain?

For international politics?

For military tactics?

For leftist ideological movements?

For Italo-German relations, and the timing of German-Austrian Anschluss?

For the Soviet budget (w/out the Republic's gold)

For the propensity of Spain to join or be drawn in to WWII?

For Italy's preparedness for WWII?

For Italy's willingness to join Germany at the outset of WWII, or not?

For Italy's eagerness to prevent a German-Czech war and hold Munich conference?

For Soviet levels of aid to the Chinese United Front

For the Polish arms industry and readiness of Polish armed forces by 1939

For Ernest Hemingway

For George Orwell

 

[Ramontxo]

Say Franco's column from the south don't stray out to liberate Toledo Alcazar and Madrid falls before the Brigadas Internacionales reinforce it. Now this is a very heavy blow to the Republic but I am not sure if that is enough to an early end of the Civil War as a lot of people suspect that Franco wanted a long war for his own political reasons. So the only way I see for a short war is having the "Alzamiento" doing better in Madrid and Barcelona ( the Guardia Civil in Barcelona side with the complot ) In any case the new regime would be quite inestable being an uneasy alliance of the Carlistas an army divided between several factions etc

 

[Ricardolindo]

I don't think, that, the coup could have succeeded. It had very little support in urban industrial areas, like Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia.

 

[raharris1973]

What if the rightist coup against the Popular Front government in Spain in 1936 succeeded quickly?

Sanjurjo in charge instead of Franco

For military tactics?

Somewhat less developed dive-bombing tactics.

Soviets never disband armor divisions and come to see penny-packet armor as better

For leftist ideological movements?

I don't know. Less mobilization, less infighting?

For Italo-German relations, and the timing of German-Austrian Anschluss?

I am going to guess this is not affected negatively, and that Italian anger at the west over its reaction to Ethiopia was enough to get Italy to realign with Germany, and that this means by March 1938, Italy will be ready to accept German-Austrian Anschluss, even if Germany and Italy have not been busy sending volunteers to the same side in Spain.

For the Soviet budget (w/out the Republic's gold)

Less gold for the Soviets, not sure how much difference this makes. Different people have different estimates.

For the propensity of Spain to join or be drawn in to WWII?

A less wrecked, rightist Spain can more seriously contemplate joining the war (if it happens and Germany still beats France) to reclaim Gibraltar and colonial loot. However, it still may prefer neutrality, as Spain did in WWI.

For Italy's preparedness for WWII?

Should be better in terms of supply stocks and recapitalization and modernization of weapons, even if there's less field experience against Soviet equipment.

For Italy's willingness to join Germany at the outset of WWII, or not?

In the event of (not assuming) a 1939 war starting over Poland, Italy may be in from the beginning, perhaps starting with its own attack on Yugoslavia.

For Italy's eagerness to prevent a German-Czech war and hold Munich conference?

In the event of (not assuming) a Sudeten crisis in 1938, Italy may not be so desperate for war to be avoided and hope for two parallel "splendid little wars" of Germany to dismantle Czechoslovakia and Italy to dismantle Yugoslavia, alongside minor revisionist allies like Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Albania.

For Soviet levels of aid to the Chinese United Front

Without Spain, these may go up. Soviet Far Eastern forces may be boosted more.

For the Polish arms industry and readiness of Polish armed forces by 1939

May have less stuff and less advanced stuff for lack of sales to the Spanish Republic.

For Ernest Hemingway

Fewer interesting things to write

For George Orwell

Fewer interesting things to write. Less skepticism of Stalin.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Sanjurjo in charge instead of Franco

If you don't mind me asking, why are you answering your own questions?
Regardless, I doubt that Sanjurjo would have any power over Spain. He was excentric, somewhat of a figurehead and not taken very seriously by other generals.

 

[raharris1973]

If you don't mind me asking, why are you answering your own questions?

Mostly impatience, to be honest.

Regardless, I doubt that Sanjurjo would have any power over Spain. He was excentric, somewhat of a figurehead and not taken very seriously by other generals.

I didn't know that. I know you think its success unlikely, but who would be in charge after a coup that succeeds in 1936 instead?

Say Franco's column from the south don't stray out to liberate Toledo Alcazar and Madrid falls before the Brigadas Internacionales reinforce it. Now this is a very heavy blow to the Republic but I am not sure if that is enough to an early end of the Civil War as a lot of people suspect that Franco wanted a long war for his own political reasons. So the only way I see for a short war is having the "Alzamiento" doing better in Madrid and Barcelona ( the Guardia Civil in Barcelona side with the complot ) In any case the new regime would be quite inestable being an uneasy alliance of the Carlistas an army divided between several factions etc

Very, very, interesting. Who do you think the nominal and actual top tog of the rightist alliance would be?

I know what you mean about potential instability between different right-wing factions. Would that cause an intra right civil war or coups soon, or might that be held in check in the short-run by a need to cooperate to purge the left and recalcitrant republicans, and to crush leftist uprisings and guerrilla activity?

 

[Ramontxo]

The "Alzamiento" succeeding is far from easy. But without out Franco on full control of the situation and with Spain not being devastated in the war the great cuestion is, do they go Musso's way and declare war on the UK?...

 

[Ricardolindo]

Mostly impatience, to be honest.



I didn't know that. I know you think its success unlikely, but who would be in charge after a coup that succeeds in 1936 instead?



Very, very, interesting. Who do you think the nominal and actual top tog of the rightist alliance would be?

I know what you mean about potential instability between different right-wing factions. Would that cause an intra right civil war or coups soon, or might that be held in check in the short-run by a need to cooperate to purge the left and recalcitrant republicans, and to crush leftist uprisings and guerrilla activity?

IMO, Mola and Franco were the most likely rulers of Spain, if, as unlikely as it was, the coup succeeded.
As said by, now banned, user Dr. Strangelove, in https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ar-a-swift-military-coup.180843/#post-4058869, if Emilio Mola ended up the ruler, the situation had the potential of quickly becoming very dystopian. Mola openly admitted that the only way to pacify the country after the coup would be to kill or imprison everyone associated with the Popular Front.
As he also said, if Mola was the ruler, Spain would likely remain a republic and maybe even keep the tricolor flag.
Mola also wanted to keep secularism.

 

[Ramontxo]

Yes Mola was as scary as Franco and maybe even more. But Mola's strength was the mostly Carlist Navarre army. While the Spanish ejército de África with the professional Spanish army plus the morrocans were controlled by Franco. Then there is the Falange by itself it is not very much but OTL under Serrano Suñer (after Hedilla, Jose Antonio heir were brutally deposed) was a vehicle for Nazi's influence. ITTL Jose Antonio may very well live and that opens its own can of butterflies. This is most surely be a Junta lead situation. And If Sanjurjo survived his flight from Portugal he may very well be its figurehead.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Yes Mola was as scary as Franco and maybe even more. But Mola's strength was the mostly Carlist Navarre army. While the Spanish ejército de África with the professional Spanish army plus the morrocans were controlled by Franco. Then there is the Falange by itself it is not very much but OTL under Serrano Suñer (after Hedilla, Jose Antonio heir were brutally deposed) was a vehicle for Nazi's influence. ITTL Jose Antonio may very well live and that opens its own can of butterflies. This is most surely be a Junta lead situation. And If Sanjurjo survived his flight from Portugal he may very well be its figurehead.

Yes, Mola was as killing minded as Franco, maybe even more, but, as I said, he probably wouldn't be as socially reactionary as Franco. Mola wanted to keep Spain a secular republic. Under him, Spain may even have kept the tricolor flag.

 

[Tjakari]

Is there any way that the Rightist Coup could succeed, but the coalition in the military could breakdown into its own conflict?

 

[History Learner]

As Hugh Thomas writes, a lengthy civil war was by no means inevitable because either side might have swiftly triumphed: "Had the rebels risen in all the provinces in Spain on 18 July, they might have been everywhere triumphant by 22 July. But had the government distributed arms, and ordered the civil governors to do so too, thus using the working class to defend the republic at the earliest opportunity, the rising might have been crushed..." https://books.google.com/books?id=4c4F7KM9UE8C&pg=PT234

 

[raharris1973]

Would Mola be more prone to join WWII. This time I will wait for someone else to answer

 

[Ricardolindo]

Here's why I'm still skeptical about the idea of the coup succeeding: The rebels rose in many provinces but were defeated in some of those. The coup had very little support in urban industrial areas, like Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia. In addition, in our timeline, about half of the Spanish armed and police forces stayed loyal to the government. It's, really, hard to change the opinions of so many people.

Would Mola be more prone to join WWII. This time I will wait for someone else to answer

I suspect so. I recall reading somewhere else in this forum that Franco was the most careful of the coup leaders regarding foreign relations.

 

[History Learner]

On the subject of Spain joining in on the Axis side, beyond the obvious closing of the Straits and U-Boats in the Canaries, 42% of British iron ore imports were from Spain, which was also a major source of Potash as well.

 

[Ramontxo]

U boats from the Galician coast yes. The Canarias islands were expected to fall to the UK very very soon...

 

[raharris1973]

Would rightist Spain “owe” anything to Germany or Italy after a quick win?

I think the Germans helped the initial airlift, I don’t know if the Italians did anything up front.

Even without “owing” I suppose rightist Spain would still have anticommunism, antileftism and antiliberalism in common with fascist states, and a potential to opportunistically pursue revisionist territorial aims.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Would rightist Spain “owe” anything to Germany or Italy after a quick win?

I think the Germans helped the initial airlift, I don’t know if the Italians did anything up front.

Even without “owing” I suppose rightist Spain would still have anticommunism, antileftism and antiliberalism with fascist states, and a potential to opportunistically pursue revisionist territorial aims.

I think that a Mola led Spain would have joined the Axis, even if only for ideological reasons. As I said, Mola wanted a right-wing authoritarian secular republic, a new version of the Spanish Republic. This is much closer to true Fascism than Franco's conservative/reactionary Catholic Nationalism. Franco didn't like the Italian and German idea of a new world order, Mola probably did.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

This is most surely be a Junta lead situation. And If Sanjurjo survived his flight from Portugal he may very well be its figurehead.

If he doesn't survive the flight, might Miguel Cabanellas serve as the figure head for the Junta? He headed the Junta that appointed Franco as the new leader IOTL.

 

[Ricardolindo]

If he doesn't survive the flight, might Miguel Cabanellas serve as the figure head for the Junta? He headed the Junta that appointed Franco as the new leader IOTL.

The problem is that Cabanellas was a centrist liberal and a Freemason, that was somewhat of an embarassment for the Nationalists. Cabanellas merely wanted to replace the Spanish Republic, that he believed had drifted too far to the left, with a centrist republic in his style. He even wanted to keep the Himno de Riego. This clashed with most of the Nationalists, that wanted either a right-wing authoritarian republic or a monarchy.
In addition, he was already old and died of natural causes during the civil war, in our timeline.