In no way you will see a civil war between Agrippa and Marcellus as whatever contrast they had the speculations about it and Agrippa being exiled as consequence of such disagreements are exaggerations... sure Agrippa was outside Rome but was sent as governor in the eastern provinces and while he remained in Lesbos, sending only his legates in Syria is more likely who Agrippa was either a) put in charge of the greatest army of Rome as backup in case Augustus had trouble with the second settlement and needed military backup or b) was secretly negotiating with Parthians for the restitution of the Eagles of Crassus or both things at the same time. About the succession the only things of which I am sure are who Marcellus will be the personal heir of Augustus inheriting most of the wealth of his uncle and father-in-law (a part of it will go to Livia, another to Julia and likely something to Octavia and Agrippa plus we can be sure Augustus will left a lot of bequests) and Agrippa will stay in a position of power, maybe becoming Augustus’ main political heir and successor if Marcellus was judged too young and inexperienced for taking such big role, something pretty likely to happen. Remember who Agrippa at that time was already a member of the family of Augustus (he became part of the family in 28 aC with his second wedding to Marcella Major (Octavia’s eldest daughter so Augustus’ niece and Marcellus’ full sister) not with the third to Julia Major in 21) and Marcellus’ brother-in-law. If Marcellus still died few months after his uncle then Agrippa’s position of power would be established and uncontested without any need to divorce from his wife for marrying Julia. Likely the inheritance of the childless Marcellus will be divided between his mother, widow and sisters with the biggest part going to eldest sister Marcella Major (aka Agrippa’s wife), that if Augustus had not already named Agrippa as heir after Marcellus in his own will. With Marcellus death Agrippa would have little to fear as both Octavia (his mother-in-law) and Livia (whose sons would be strictly tied to Agrippa as Tiberius is engaged/married to Agrippa’s eldest daughter and Drusus to his younger (half-)sister-in-law) will be on his side. Not being anymore the symbol of the transfer of power Julia Augusti will have more freedom in remarrying (and likely will marry Octavia’s stepson Iullus Antonius, after the appropriate time of mourning).What are the implications of Augustus' early death in 23 BCE? Agrippa and Marcellus were both alive at this time, so what might the succession look like, and would there be another round of civil wars?
In no way you will see a civil war between Agrippa and Marcellus as whatever contrast they had the speculations about it and Agrippa being exiled as consequence of such disagreements are exaggerations... sure Agrippa was outside Rome but was sent as governor in the eastern provinces and while he remained in Lesbos, sending only his legates in Syria is more likely who Agrippa was either a) put in charge of the greatest army of Rome as backup in case Augustus had trouble with the second settlement and needed military backup or b) was secretly negotiating with Parthians for the restitution of the Eagles of Crassus or both things at the same time. About the succession the only things of which I am sure are who Marcellus will be the personal heir of Augustus inheriting most of the wealth of his uncle and father-in-law (a part of it will go to Livia, another to Julia and likely something to Octavia and Agrippa plus we can be sure Augustus will left a lot of bequests) and Agrippa will stay in a position of power, maybe becoming Augustus’ main political heir and successor if Marcellus was judged too young and inexperienced for taking such big role, something pretty likely to happen. Remember who Agrippa at that time was already a member of the family of Augustus (he became part of the family in 28 aC with his second wedding to Marcella Major (Octavia’s eldest daughter so Augustus’ niece and Marcellus’ full sister) not with the third to Julia Major in 21) and Marcellus’ brother-in-law. If Marcellus still died few months after his uncle then Agrippa’s position of power would be established and uncontested without any need to divorce from his wife for marrying Julia. Likely the inheritance of the childless Marcellus will be divided between his mother, widow and sisters with the biggest part going to eldest sister Marcella Major (aka Agrippa’s wife), that if Augustus had not already named Agrippa as heir after Marcellus in his own will. With Marcellus death Agrippa would have little to fear as both Octavia (his mother-in-law) and Livia (whose sons would be strictly tied to Agrippa as Tiberius is engaged/married to Agrippa’s eldest daughter and Drusus to his younger (half-)sister-in-law) will be on his side. Not being anymore the symbol of the transfer of power Julia Augusti will have more freedom in remarrying (and likely will marry Octavia’s stepson Iullus Antonius, after the appropriate time of mourning).
Iullus as Julia’s ATL second husband is in no way ASB as: a) Julia now is quite away from the power so Agrippa has no reason for divorcing Marcella and marrying her b) Livia has no interest in Julia as daughter-in-law as the actual weddings/engagements of her sons keep them much closer to the power than a wedding to Julia c) in OTL Iullus married Marcella Maior exactly in this period after her divorce from Agrippa
Tiberius is Agrippa son-in-law, Drusus (and Ahenobarbus) his brother-in-law and Livia most likely support Agrippa, so a civil war is pretty unlikely. Mark Antony’s inheritance at this point is still poisoned and Drusus and Iullus know better than get involved against Agrippa (plus neither is power hungry). A more likely scenario see Agrippa dying around his OTL death date (or maybe earlier), possibly poisoned and the remaining men of the family of Augustus (stepsons Tiberius and Drusus and son-in-law Iullus) restoring the Republic.When I said civil war, I did not mean between Marcellus and Agrippa. Marcellus did not have a political constituency of his own that could have posed any tangible threat to Agrippa. I more meant that it might be possible for a senatorial faction to emerge backing Tiberius and Drusus against Agrippa, as Agrippa himself was never accepted by the nobility. The traditional patricians by this point had been heavily depleted in number by the civil wars and proscriptions, but a sizable faction of senators and equites still remembered their loyalties to Antony, and with Drusus married to Antony's daughter, he and Iulus would be natural figureheads for any new senatorial opposition to Agrippa. There were still powerful men among the senate like Domitius Ahenobarbus, Crassus Dives, and Sentius Saturninus whom would be liable to take sides in the ensuing struggle, since it is doubtful that any of the remaining imperial men (Agrippa, Tiberius, Drusus, Marcellus, and Iulus) would have been able to secure the unwavering political domination that Augustus was able to master. It's also worth noting that Lepidus was still alive at this point as well, and his children and nephews were heavily intermarried with the extended imperial family through Augustus' first wife Scribonia, and thus had considerable leverage on the imperial family in his own right.
- Harold Godwinson isn't kidnapped by William of Normandy in 1064 meaning he isn't present at Mont St Michel and William drowns in the quicksand.
- With William gone, Harold feels safe enough to side with his brother Tostig against the rebels and he remains Earl of Northumbria.
- He also feels safe enough to let Edgar II be crowned instead of him. He's then blindsided by Hardrada after he takes York without a fight when the Aldermen just hand Tostig over to him. Earls Edwin and (newly made) Morcar Leofricson join him.
- Hardrada defeats Gyrth of East Anglia at Hunstanton while Harold takes the Mercian capitals of Tamworth and Lichfield. Gyrth and leofwine then draw Hardrada to battle at the appropriate site of Bury St Edmunds.
- Hardrada splits his forces and goes after Harold meeting him at Melton Mowbray where he's defeated as well Magnus at Bury St Edmunds.
Joseph Smith Jr comes to mind immediately.How many people in 1840 or 1850 or 1855 believe a civil war was a coming?