What if Iraq had followed Syria into the UAR? Is war with the Saudis likely to happen?
What if Iraq had followed Syria into the UAR? Is war with the Saudis likely to happen?
I agree that an attempt to seize Kuwait is likely here, so would be an even worse escalation in South Yemen.
Both Israel and Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser extent also Iran, would be terrified. This UAR, if it manages to keep itself together, would have to worry about many fronts at once, Palestine being obviously the foremost worry,
Israel would possibly launch a pre-emptive strike of the Six Days type earlier,
But they would have to open that front too, if events in Yemen unfold similarly to OTL (which may not be the case). Encircling Saudi Arabia (which would on the opposite side about Kuwait) would be very tempting and an ideological need.But Nasser didn't get involved in Yemen until the fall of '62. By then he'd probably have his hands full dealing with Iraq and Kuwait.
Yes.The UAR put Israel on a back burner while in Yemen 1962-67, although basically it remained enemy #1.
Prior to the '67 war, Israel's casi belli were (besides an attack): Use of sharm to impose a naval blockade and the inclusion of Jordan in a military alliance enabling other arab armies to mass in Jordan. An expanded UAR while worrisome wouldn't justify a preemptive attack.
But they would have to open that front too, if events in Yemen unfold similarly to OTL (which may not be the case). Encircling Saudi Arabia (which would on the opposite side about Kuwait) would be very tempting and an ideological need.
Not per se, but would make the Israelis a lot more trigger-happy in the event of a crisis (such as the aforementioned Tiran Gulf thing).