Oh, no question.
Of course, Yamamoto already had a lot of luck going his way in the first place. Like the splendidly awful weather in the North Pacific that helped keep Nagumo's task force hidden in rain squalls.
But one cannot help but be struck by how zealously PACFLT Combat intelligence was in trying to track down the location of IJN surface units and transports. And they had a fairly good bead on where most of it all was. In fact, it was precisely because Layton felt signals traffic had located most of these units that it was easier to assume that missing carriers (Carrier Divisions 1 and 2) would likely have to be accompanying forces like Takahashi's Philippine Invasion Force and Kondo's Second Fleet heading south.
Now imagine a scenario where it is not just Carrier Divisions 1 and 2 that have vanished from Layton's sight, but a very big slice of its surface and transport units that have vanished as well. As Gordon Prange put it, speaking of Takahashi's and Kondo's forces:
U.S. officials watch these ships and these forces moving south day by day, almost hour by hour, until virtual hypnosis set in. Thus it was that Japan's sweeping offensive southward misdirected American political and military attention and served as camouflage for Nagumo's task force. (At Dawn We Slept: The Untold Story of Pearl Harbor 60th Anniversary Edition, p. 435).
If most of these forces are now secretly redirected to Hawaii, they can
no longer hypnotize American intelligence or Admiral Kimmel.