@Salvador79 - will you take votes? I vote:
Sounds way more sensible and not otl’s shitshow
Avksentiev
Sounds way more sensible and not otl’s shitshow
Avksentiev
Your votes and commentaries are more than welcome! As a general rule, I shall take them into account (as feeback about what you think is more plausible, more interesting or more desirable), but I won't let the timeline be determined by votes, since in my experience (especially from my Hussite TL "A Different Chalice"), this tends to give timelines a utopian twist. While I'm not fond of overly dystopian timelines myself, I would like to keep things somewhere along a balance of plausibility and interest, and preserve a tiny bit of suspense, too, which means I'll probably resort to real votes only where I think both options are more or less equally plausible and I have no story arc preference or ideas for suspense.@Salvador79 - will you take votes? I vote:
Avksentiev
Sounds way more sensible and not otl’s shitshow
If this viewpoint picked up any degree of steam, would it cause the UoE to take a generally anti-colonialist line before the end of the war, or not?Among red-blooded socialists, the debate has finally raised the awareness about “Southern problems” above a level of colonialist-stereotyped reaction, and this is to a great extent thanks to the eloquent speeches and energetic opposition to the details of this Concordance which has been mounted by Mirsaid Sultan-Galiev and Mullanur Waxitov. Rejecting many political Jadidist reformers’ and revolutionaries’ close ties with Ottoman policies for a Greater Turan from a socialist perspective, but also disillusioned with the realpolitik of the moderate socialists and the disregard for anti-colonial perspectives espoused by both Trotsky for the biggest SD faction, Bukharin for the remaining ultra-left Bolsheviks, and frequently chauvinistic “moderate” leaders of labour unions alike, Sultan-Galiev and Waxitov are developing their own brand of anti-colonial socialism. Their stronghold is Kazan, where local soviets are firmly in the hands of staunchly socialist Muslim workers, and while Waxitov is holding his speeches as a deputy of these soviets in the Supreme Soviet, Sultan-Galiev does so in the CA in Moscow. Both are hammering out a genuinely socialist list of political demands for how to deal with the “Southern problem”, and while I may expound this in more detail in a later update (I’m not sure yet), what follows from it in this concrete context is that they vehemently reject to recognize any treaty negotiated between Moscow, which had only its geostrategic interests at mind, and oligarchic local elites, demanding the development of revolutionary soviets of the colonized people, their alliance, and their self-confident and defiant confrontation with the European nations at eye level, with all options on the table – from independence and the formation of an alliance with other liberating ex-colonized peoples to federation. Only a handful of SDs are supportive of this view, while on the left wing of the SRs, there is somewhat more solidarity (but only there: the right wing of the SRs not only harbours, well, let’s call it attachments to Russia not being “mutilated” too much, but it also sees itself as the representation of the “progressive elements” among the agriculturalist settlers in Central Asia, too, and therefore rejects an open-ended negotiation which could lead to their expulsion from a soon-independent Muslim Tatarstan…).
Would the presence of the UoE on said commission give it some level of legitimacy (although I'd doubt it'd change the partition significantly, it could have later effects)?Yes, there is considerably greater British presence in Syria and the Levante. IOTL, British presence did not really help Syria all that much as the British were very eager to follow Sykes-Picot through. I’ll have to look into the entire question in greater depth myself – have you got any recommendation with regards to literature on the topic for me? One hunch I’d have is that the UoE would want to sit on any Inter-Allied Commission on Mandates in Turkey so that it wouldn’t become a purely US thing.
I agree, although OTL's Soviet Russia does set the bar pretty low.@Salvador79Sounds way more sensible and not otl’s shitshow
It would have to pick up a lot of steam very quickly. There is considerable reluctance and even outright resistance both within the SDs and SRs, and even more so within the Kadets, who are gobbling up much of what had been to the right of them (a process which began IOTL already throughout late spring and summer 1917) and that includes Russian nationalism... Also, various other strong parties in the Federative Republics installed so far don't find this view quite as attractive, either. But it's not impossible. I have some crazy ideas concerning anti-colonialism and the UoE, but I'm not yet sure if they'll really materialise. How the UoE solves the tensions in its own Southern backyard is, of course, the test to all this. If they continue to support "emirs and sheikhs" there and crack down on protests on the pretext of their being pro-Ottoman, they won't enjoy much credibility.If this viewpoint picked up any degree of steam, would it cause the UoE to take a generally anti-colonialist line before the end of the war, or not?
The commission proposed entirely different solutions than what happened IOTL. The utter inconsequentiality of its being outright ignored had a lot to do with the combination of it being a pure US thing and then a Wilsonian thing and then the 1920 elections bringing Republicans into the White House and Congress in a landslide victory. It is difficult to imagine the commission being quite as irrelevant as IOTL.Would the presence of the UoE on said commission give it some level of legitimacy (although I'd doubt it'd change the partition significantly, it could have later effects)?
Because I can't like something I've postwd myself, gotta use this way to say how much I like lukedalton's idea.
If the Attacker turns out to be a Maximalist, the moderates may just barely hold it together and the whole eacalation of the Biennio Rosso is probably avoided.
If he turns out to be a Benny-lover, at least the PSI is warned now and maybe even closes Ranks?
Wirst Case is If the perpetrator is not found and all sides Blame each other...
Sadly, that is very convincing.thanks...personally i will go for the third option, chaos before,during and after will make any attempt to identify the guilty part extremely difficult and everyone will deny any involvment to his deathbed, plus there is always the very italian option to blame it to a goverment agent.
Very good point; the Yugoslavian situation looks different and not necessarily better ITTL, as you have pointed out. One of the next updates - after @Karelian has helped me straighten out my ideas for the end of the Finnish Civil War - will show just how far from OTL the Yugoslavia project has been derailed already...Last thing for Italy (i swear), well if by the time of the armistice she already had conquered a big chunk of the promised territory...Orlando will probably try to expand as possible the italian occupation zone, at least in the Croatia/Slovenia as Dalmatia has been clearly divided and is too near Serbia.
This for obtain the best possible position in the negotiation at the Peace conference but can create immediately some problem with the jugoslavian commitee, speaking of it, if the Croatian commitee and the green soldiers ITTL are a little better and the Serbian a little worse, well negotiation will be much much more complicated as Belgrade will be even less favorable to any compromise but on a slightly worse negotiating position(OTL initial Jugoslavian position was that there will be no change at the italian eastern border as all the territory of the A-H belonged to them)
Sadly, that is very convincing.
Can you elaborate a little on your explanation regarding owners, factory administration and workers councils and how the PSI' s decision was seen as prelude to a Bolshevik revolution there? This sounds interesting and I can't find any information pertaining to it.
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Thank you!!Much is due to the enstablishment great paranoia about a socialist revolution after the events in Russia and in other places...that honestly had more than some grain of truth due to the maximalist put openly in the PSI program the enstablishment of a socialist republic and the dictatorship of the proletariat added to all the fight (political and phisical) during the war.
Not considering that, at least initially, they considered the occupation of the factory as a prelude for a revolution...but the union and the socialist political leaderships quickly saw that the disparity of force was too great and more importantly the armed forces were really not behind them and in the great majority were loyal to the king (happen if you create a politics that antagonize the veterans and enlarge the already big divide between the soldiers and the factory worker, that were generally seen by the first as people that were paid handsomely to avoid the front).
So once the revolution option was out, they tried to make the owner and the goverment accepting the creation of soviet style worker council that will have some control of the factory, but as said in the paranoia of the time, any political concession to the socialist/communist/union was considered a prelude to the revolution...and frankly at this stage even if the socialist higher up were for ending the occupation they had inflamed the workers too much and once started it was very difficult to end the battle.
Luckyly for everyone involved Giolitti and his political students were (usually) generally very keen in using phisical violence in this situation as they feared it will have just started what they wanted to avoid, so insted of hear the owner that asked for using the artillery against the strikers (yes, they really asked to bomb their own factories), he limited the police action to contain the people in the occupied factories and started negotiation with the unions to give the workers more money and better work condition but totally avoiding any political issue.
Thank you!!
Hm, it looks like there could be a precedent ITTL for how to solve/defuse the Situation: the Finnish Tokoi-Mannerheim compromise...
So a split is unavoidable so the moderates can go ahead trying to smooth things over even when the party convention forbids them so and excommunicates them as a result. And the Maximalists will try to stoke revolutionary flames, and factories will get occupied. And then we'll see how that goes.Maybe, but at least the liberals will want the PSI pledge to not be committed to respect democracy and not overthrow the monarchy and enstablish the dictatorships of the proletariat...and good luck with that with Bombacci, Gramsci and the other in charge; plus a move like that in this moment will greatly weaken the liberal goverment and the Giolitti faction aka the more reasonable and that at the moment is trying to avoid violence.
Basically, if they can get the compromise before any occupation start, it can be possible but even in this case i expect a lot of political repercussion for everyone involved but once the confrontation start well it will be very difficult for both the goverment and the socialist leaderships come to term without looking as the defeated party; plus the PSI at the moment is in troubled water and divided and usually in this case the will to compromise and look weak, expecially for the most ideologically men, is lacking
So a split is unavoidable so the moderates can go ahead trying to smooth things over even when the party convention forbids them so and excommunicates them as a result. And the Maximalists will try to stoke revolutionary flames, and factories will get occupied. And then we'll see how that goes.
Where would Mussolini be in all this? Already organising fasci for the factory owners to drive out the red workers?
The what now? What update was that?Tokoi-Mannerheim compromise...
Sorry, I meant to write Tokoi-Manner compromise (Update 22).The what now? What update was that?
Good luck to the Maximalists...
... but after the attempt at Turati's life things have gone too far and soon the PSI will be divided in three.
I'm curious about what will happen to the newly-independent Czechoslovakia and Galicia-Lodomeria when the Hapsburg empire finishes collapsing- mainly because it is looking like that collapse might finish while Germany remains in the war.
Czechoslovakia might consider itself a Russian ally, since the Czech legion is fighting for the UoE- which would technically put them at war with Germany. But does Germany have the ability to spare troops for an intervention there?
Galicia-Lodomeria is even more complex- the population is mostly poles who want to be part of Poland, but Poland proper at this point is a German puppet state.