The Ausgleich of 1937
No country in history, as English historian Frederick Taylor put it, ever gambled more recklessly than the Austro-Hungarian Empire when it put the renewal of its very existence to a decennial vote. This had not been the intention behind the Ausgleich, but this was ultimately what it was felt to represent: the opportunity for the separate bodies of the Empire to choose whether the continuation of their union was in their continued interest. What had been intended as a tool of adjusting a working agreement without constitutional changes became an emotionally highly charged political game as time progressed. Eventually, no political party could afford to retreat without losing face. Compromise, the lifeblood of Austria-Hungary, became toxic. The breakdown of civic structures that followed this downward arc of comity brought the Empire to its knees.
The Ausgleichsverhandlung scheduled for 1907, still a largely technical exercise, though already observed keenly by the press, were rendered moot by the ongoing war, ultimately leading to almost no changes. The following institutional stasis that was supported by a widespread veneration of Emperor Franz Joseph, a saintly figure since his death at the height of a terrible but victorious war. The turmoil caused by economic dislocation, war, and rapid industrialisation might have been managed better by a more flexible system of government. The Austro-Hungarian civil service was exemplary in its even-handedness and skill, but it could do little to address the problems of the modern era. Frustration with this state of affairs was intense by the time the 1917 negotiations began.
Hope attended the auspicious beginning of a new chapter in Austro-Hungarian history as a relatively young and still vigorous emperor laid out his agenda: Equal treatment to Slavs and Romanians, systematic reform of public administration, expanded social policies, and a greatly expanded role to the military in the running of government. Franz II Ferdinand's successes were limited despite his ability to cast Hungarian opponents of the Ausgleich as reactionary obstructionists. It was enough to leave the Hungarian elites deeply disaffected, but not enough to win the hearts of the still disadvantaged Slavic peoples. This was a greater problem than it need have been because relations between the nations of Cisleithania were still strained because of widespread collaboration by Czechs, Slovaks and Ruthenians. The popular press, especially papers with German nationalist leanings, continued to paint them as potential enemies within and made much of the supposed ingratitude of the Polish minority. As conservative politicians increasingly turned to ethnic nationalism as an antidote to Socialist mobilisation of the poor, these attitudes increasingly poisoned public discourse.
The 1927 negotiations were mired in discord and difficulty from the beginning. Under the shadow of a growing economic crisis and led by an ageing, increasingly isolated and disillusioned emperor, they would nonetheless produce sufficient progress to create a false dawn of hope for many liberal commentators. Yet the prospect of victory for a reasonable compromise would be ground to dust between the increasing acrimony of nationalist agitation that accompanied the economic downturn of the late 1920s, the seething anger of a Hungarian ruling class marginalised in the new order, and the weakening of central authority under the pressure of dwindling revenues and fading memories of war.
All of this makes it all the more tragic to consider that the actual compromise hammered out in 1937/38 could have been effective. Had the parties involved been willing or able to look past their bruised egos and allowed politics to take their course, there is every reason to believe the new incarnation of the Empire relying more strongly on elected provincial assemblies and less on the central governments of Vienna and Budapest would have shaken itself into shape. The escalation of political sabotage, grandstanding and violence that followed instead would destroy any hope for a peaceful resolution.
