Could the Allies pay Italy for the use of a port near the French border and use that to invade?
Just a business transaction...
That would definitely have some consequences.
It would certainly violate Italy's neutrality- the Pact of Steel
is definitely going to notice. However, even if it does, it
might not be certain doom for Italy. The
Regio Esercito has had more time to prepare TTL, and the Austro-Italian border is along exceedingly difficult terrain, and guarded by the
Alpini, Italy's best soldiers.
Also of concern are the Soviet ships that Italy is still performing work on and the Soviets are still
not making payments on. If Italy siezes them, that totally throws off the balance of forces in the Mediterranean. It would give the Italians two huge 60 000 ton battleships, four modern 44 000 t battleships (the four
Littorios all completed to
Roma's larger size TTL), and four old 12"-gunned WWI era battleships.
The Allies, by contrast, have global commitments beyond the Mediterranean, so even though the Royal Navy and Marine Nationale have more ships total, they are spread farther.
The Royal Navy's base at Valletta, Malta is quite crowded, and the anchorage at Alexandria is less than ideal- dockyard facilities are small and marine life rapidly fouls the bottoms of ships left in Alexandria for too long. The French naval base at Mers-el-Kébir is still incomplete on top of everything else. The Royal Navy, wary of the hazards within the Mediterranean, also tends to keep its valuable fast capital ships out. This leaves the typical force in the Med as the 40 000 ton battleships
Triumph and
Orion, the
Queen Elizabeth class battleship
Valiant and her less modernized sister
Barham; the
R-class battleship
Resolution and the carriers
Eagle, Argus, and
Victorious. Along with these units are the French battleship
Richelieu (which the Admiralty is requesting undertake far cover duties for convoys due to her speed, so
Renown and
Repulse can both be refitted) and small battleship
Dunkerque. While this is more than adequate for four
Littorios and four old battlewagons
, there is nothing that can directly compare with 60 000 ton battleships. Furthermore, only
Richelieu is capable of over 30 kn, although the 28.25 kn
Triumphs can be forced to nearly 30.
Granted, the Allies can bottle up the Med at both ends, but that is not an ideal scenario.
The Italians also enjoy a numerical advantage in heavy cruisers and submarines in the Med.
That is, of course, if Stalin doesn't press the issue of losing his battleships too hard...