Part 6: President Romney (1989-1993)
President Vernon Bradford Romney came into office as the first Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1977. 1989 also marked the first time since the 84th Congress (which ran from 1955 to 1957) that Republicans controlled the Presidency and both Houses of Congress. The Grand Old Party had high hopes that, in retrospect, were unreasonable. Somehow, the idea that all the expansion of the government from the Great Society onwards would simply be repealed and the market would sort everything out. In the end, this proved to be far from the truth. Romney was supposed to be a domestic President and focus primarily on cutting off the excesses of the La Follette years, but, due to forces beyond his control, the Romney Administration turned into one of foreign policy.
South Africa's Apartheid regime had lasted into the 1990s, the last relic of the days of white imperialism. Since the late 1970s, most of the world (including La Follette's US) had been boycotting it. Mounting economic pressure had destroyed most of the white will to continue that economically inefficient practice. Though reformist governments had not managed to take power, a large minority within the dominant National Party had joined the push for the end of Apartheid. That all came to an end in early November 1990, when State Present Vause Raw of South Africa was shot by a sniper while giving a speech on the steps of the Cape Town City Hall. The crowd panicked and confusion descended over the entire country. When it cleared, it turned out that President Raw had died several hours after the shooting and that the perpetrator was a colored veteran named Henry Booysans. Though later information would show Booysans suffered from PTSD following service in Rhodesia and Namibia and that he had few political opinions, rumor had it that Booysans was an agent of the African National Congress (ANC) and that he had assassinated President Raw on the orders of the ANC. A wave of lynchings and pogroms exploded across the country as angry whites murdered blacks indiscriminately. But though heinous, what broke public opinion was the beating of Nelson Mandela by prison guards on Robben's Island. There, white guards took their frustration over the murder of President Raw out on their prisoners, and the beating of the already weakened and aging Mandela was more than his body can handle and, on November 18th, Mandela died in the Robben's Island Infirmary. News took several days to reach Mandela's fellow inmates and from there reach the mainland, but when word of Mandela's death arrived in Cape Town and Johannesburg, riots on a scale never before seen in South Africa broke out as blacks, coloreds, and even moderate, anti-apartheid whites took the streets. The guerilla wing of the ANC, Umkhonto we Sizwe, was ordered to increase their action. With the President dead and many of the major cities completely engulfed in riots, Prime Minister Ferdinand Hartzenberg declared a state of emergency and called out most of the SADF's reserves to put down the fighting. As both sides became more committed, and feared the other side becoming more mobilized than themselves, the situation in South Africa spiraled out of control. It is hard to pinpoint exactly when and where the South African Civil War actually began, as sparse fighting had been going on since before Raw's assassination but by the start of 1991, the riots had ended and fighting had begun.
By March of 1991, the rump South African government had implemented such extreme emergency measures that it was, at least in name, a police state - though, owing to a lack of available manpower and equipment, many of the decrees on the book were never actually carried out. A clique of reformists within the government and civil society, led by a multiracial group including Liberal-Federal MP Helen Suzman, Cape Town Councillor Peter Marais, and activist Nomvuyo Ivi Noqolela began to meet in secret and declared a new, liberal Second South African Republic in May of 1991. Meanwhile, the ANC-led revolutionaries had declared their own state: the Peoples Republic of South Africa and, though they had not espoused communism prior to the outbreak of hostilities, a need for supplies led them to join the Soviet bloc. In addition, Angola, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe had declared war on South Africa (the Hartzenberg government, that is) and had sent troops in.* By the summer of 1991, South Africa was divided between the nationalists (strongest in Transvaal and the Orange Free State), communists (strong there and in the east), and the republicans (strongest in the Cape) This was complicated by the declaration of independence by Zulu King Israel Mcwayizeni kaSolomon, who claimed much of Natal as an independent, neutral Zulu homeland.
As 1991 faded away and 1992 began, fighting ebbed and flowed. The Nationalists were on the way out, facing attacks from both east and west while holding a territory filled with resentful non-whites. Both the Republicans and Communists were gaining ground, though the Communist command structure was ill-defined and supply lines were frequently long and difficult. The Republicans had captured most of the western Cape and received weapons from Britain, France, and Canada as well as advisorrs to assist in the creation of a modern, multiracial army. In the summer of 1992, the United States recognized the Cape Town government as the legitimate government of South Africa. Romney, with backing from most Republicans and nearly all Democrats justified the act by declaring the Hertzenberg government (now based out of Roberts Heights, a military base north of Pretoria) an utterly racist and totalitarian regime. Almost immediately, several wings of the US Air Force were deployed to Ysterplaat Air Force Base near Cape Town, from which they supplied air support to the advancing Republican columns. Romney and the Administration felt comfortable ramping up American involvement, as projections showed very little chance for loss of life with American involvement limited to running air missions. Military intervention was popular on the left and right with only the most conservative Republicans seriously opposing it.
The Delhi Accords, signed in June 1977 ended the official state of war between North and South Vietnam, but armed conflict, fought in back allies and the depths of the jungle continued. The Viet Cong had been defeated irreprably by combined American and South Vietnamese forces and with the death of a number of its leaders, it had collapsed in 1976. Several years of fighting between localized communist groups was ended in 1978 when the Popular Army of South Vietnam (PASV), a new communist guerilla organization, was founded. American forces referred to them as 'Pho Bien' (or PB) and they experienced a resurgence in the early 1980s following exposure of corruption in the Vietnamese regime, the resignation of President Nguyen and the installation of a protegee from his days commanding the 21st Division, General Mach Van Truong. South Vietnam largely languished throughout the 1980s as the La Follette administration slowly decreased the aid given to them. The North, meanwhile, steadily built up its capabilities after the thrashing it took in the 1955-1977 war. At 5:30 PM on June 28th, 1991 a massive barrage began on the north side of the 17th parallel, and, at 6:15 nearly one million NVA soldiers crossed the border. With Chinese and Soviet-supplied armor and tracked artillery, the meager ARVN border forces were easily swept aside. For nearly four days, the NVA and associated East Bloc "volunteers" advanced unopposed through South Vietnam as PB forces flocked to their banner to advance on Saigon. Nearly 200 miles into South Vietnamese territory, the Presidential Corps, the garrison of Saigon and the most well-supplied formation within the ARVN ground the offensive to a halt at the Battle of Kon Tum. The North Vietnamese Invasion was met with international outrage and, within several days, the United Nations had issued a strong condemnation while American forces in the Philippines were en route to join battle.
In the United States, most of the public supported South Vietnam. Only a minority of the population, led by figures like Ron Dellums, John Conyers, and a young Illinois State Representative named Rich Whitney. Among the numerous reasons for their opposition was the belief that the continued existence of South Vietnam and its survival was only a result of American imperialism and that its formation was a last-ditch effort by France to prevent its former colonies from becoming truly powerful. However, anti-war Democrats were unable to prevent the Romney White House, in conjunction with Congressional Democratic leadership, from authorizing large-scale deployment of American forces to fight alongside the ARVN. The conflict in Vietnam would represent the first major occasion of US forces in combat since the end of the First Vietnam War (as it would later be known) in 1977. Since then, bipartisan support for laws restricting the ability of Presidents to commit American forces to combat, had changed the scene, forcing Congressional support for war.** By election day in 1992, nearly 200,000 US servicemen were deployed to Vietnam. Fighting had bogged down in Kon Tum, Binh Dinh, and Quang Ngai provinces and though US Army, ARVN, and NVA regulars all were somewhere around, much of the fighting was between commandos and PB forces. American casualties were not yet very high, but fighting was rough ad there was constant worry of guerilla attacks.
Shocking to many in the West was the lack of intelligence leading up to the North Vietnamese Invasion. Surely, many thought, in that era of camera-armed spy planes and digital warfare, some obscure branch of the US military would have caught wind of an impending victory. After all, the nearly one million soldiers as well as the materiel needed to support them should have been noticed before they invaded one of America's allies. There was some outrage but the fact was simple that the North Vietnamese had perfected strategies of hiding supply depots and movement of forces during the First War and in Africa in the 1980s and that in a heavily militarized border region, there already were many men stationed there, making the buildup less intensely different. The clamor over the failure of the Western intelligence community to anticipate the invasion dissipated over the next several months as public attention went to the fighting in Vietnam and come election day of 1992, few remembered what once had been a national scandal.
Republican-led budgets for 1990-1993 saw a decrease in spending on transportation, urban development, healthcare, and welfare. But though the amount of money allocated for these things decreased, they came nowhere close to their pre-La Follette numbers, leading many radical conservatives to decry the moderates that had led the push to make such minor cuts. The failure of the Republican Congress in 1989 to create a truly slashed budget began the realization within the party that the big government started in the Roosevelt years could not be totally ended and that compromise would be needed. With some of the money liberated from cutting social programs, the Republican House, led by Majority Leader Pete Wilson of California was successful was able to secure extra funds to go to border security (particularly the US-Mexican border)
While America could not be called an anti-Mormon country, there was bigotry against the Church of Latter Day Saints and fear that the Mormons secretly desired to take control of the United States. In office, Romney attempted to separate himself from his religion to the extent available to a devout Mormon. He still attended a Mormon Church in Arlington, Virginia, but attempted to make his visits low-key and avoided public attention, using different routes to Church every week. Still, a number of protestors were invariably in attendance both at the Church and White House on Sundays. Romney's Cabinet was largely gentile, yet had the largest number of Mormons ever in a US Cabinet. Secretary of the Interior, F. Melvin Hammond, formerly a Representative from Utah, was considered one of the President's closest confidantes in Washington. Controversially, Romney frequently returned to Utah to visit family (of which he had many there) but while in Utah, he met with representatives of the Quorum of the Twelve and even Church President Paul Dunn. White House press secretaries attempted to pass off these meetings as discussion on leadership and tried to downplay the influence LDS Church officials had on the President, but were not entirely successful as many Americans were somewhat uncomfortable with the President. Arguably, Republican attempts to curtail abortion and numerous other things can be tied to Romney's Mormonism, one of the most acts most blatantly related to his faith was Romney's push against alcohol. Health Secretary James O. Mason and Surgeon General David Sundwall, both Mormons, pushed for action on classifying alcoholism as a serious disease and putting more research into its prevention. The Administration found itself allied with groups like the Alcohol Fatality Prevention League*** and The American Council on Alcohol Problems. The crowning achievement on this front was a February 1991 bill, passed by Congress and signed by President Romney that raised the Federal drinking age to 21. Though met with outrage by youth in several states that had kept their drinking age below 21, much of the US had no change, as state-level efforts to reduce DUIs had already made those changes. Attempts to lower the legal driving limit were unsuccessful on a federal level, but inspired by DOT attempts, several states lowered their maximum BAC limits.
Coming before the setbacks in Vietnam and South Africa, the midterms were mild for the ruling Republicans. House losses were minor, and it remained in Republican hands. The Senate, too, remained red but the Democrats scored several crucial victories like in Illinois, where incumbent Chuck Percy was retiring and Delaware and Texas, where incumbents Tom Evans and Kent Hance were defeated by Richard Korn and Mickey Leland, respectively. The Republicans too pulled out several upsets, including in Georgia where Democrat Walter Flowers was defeated in his bid for a third term.
Vernon Romney was not the most popular President as the time for Republicans to choose their 1992 nominee came around. He had committed no egregious crimes nor had he broken with any of the party's central tenets, yet, there was dissatisfaction. The religious right had hoped for stronger action on repealing laws easing access to abortion, while hawks hopes of increased action against communism had not panned out either. A conservative activist and Reagan-era Justice Department lawyer, Howard Phillips, answered the call. Phillips had long been involved with conservative politics, but an abortive attempt at running for State Representative in California in 1978 had largely ended Phillips ambitions of achieving elective office. By 1991 however, Phillips had largely fallen out of the spotlight and his calls to Golden State conservatives were rarely answered. Phillip's July 14th declaration of candidacy at the gate of Miramar Naval Air Station laid out an interventionist foreign policy and promised immediate action, by Constitutional Convention if necessary, to combat the "residual atheistic tendencies" of the La Follette administration. The announcement came as a surprise to the public was carried only on C-SPAN live, but America was abuzz in the next week as the possibility of a dethroning Romney was realized. Phillips proved an energetic campaigner and traveled the country in his quest to become the Republican nominee but the entrenched power of the Republican establishment proved too strong to overcome. Famously, President Romney declined to debate Phillips even after Phillips proposed financing a debate with his own money. The primaries were a trouncing for Phillips, who failed to win a single state. His best performances came in states where polling also showed high levels of anti-Mormon sentiment and, while that was not the only thing fueling his campaign, fear of Mormon domination of the United States government were played upon by Phillips surrogates. In the aftermath of Romney's easy renomination, pundits declared the tradition of a mandatory primary challenge, as started by Gene McCarthy and continued by Hubert Humphrey and later Hiram Fong, dead. The reasons for this were widely debated, but the consensus decision was that the during the early days of the primary system, party machines had not figured out how to manipulate contests in favor of incumbents, something both parties had perfected since the first nationwide primaries in 1976. Talk of a splinter ticket never materialized and the most potent opposition was a ticket on the National line headed up by former FBI agent and PI Ted Gunderson, who tapped California physician Jeffrey McDonald as his running-mate. The National Party espoused a wide range of conspiracy theories, alleging that the military-industrial complex (which might or might not have been in cahoots with Former Texas Senator George Bush and aliens from Pluto) had taken over the office of the Presidency and ruled the United States through figurehead Presidents. Though Gunderson was ineffectual in his attempts to reach the Presidency, the opposition to President Romney from the right spelled out problems for the future of the Republican Party.
The Democrat field included candidates like Governor Larry Agran of California, Governor Bob Bullock of Texas, as well as Senators Bob Casey, Ramsay Clark, Neil Goldschmidt, and Adlai Stevenson III and Representative John Silber. Stevenson, with a strong liberal record and a popular name, was the early favorite for the nomination. However, as the campaign heated up, candidates went door-to-door and debates were held, Stevenson's polling numbers collapsed as he proved somewhat uncharismatic and wonkish. In his stead, two more charismatic and telegenic candidates, Bob Bullock and Neil Goldschmidt, surged. Bullock's folksy charm and sharp wit were admired by Iowa voters. California Governor Larry Agran (who had primaried sitting Governor Ron Dellums in 1986 and then won the general election) gained a reputation as an able, urban technocrat whose experience in America's largest, fastest-growing state would prove invaulable in the White House. Bullock's win in Iowa was by a much larger margin than expected, and though the primaries were not a cakewalk, it was fairly clear Bullock would come out on top, he just needed to slog through the rest of the field first. Bullock's folksy manner was not as appreciated in the urban east as it was in the west yet his charisma was undeniable and borderless, and finally gave him the nomination. Up until the day of the Convention in Philadelphia, Bullock waffled back and forth between tapping Maryland Senator Paul Sarbanes or Georgia Representative John Lewis as his running-mate. Legend has it that Bullock flipped a coin to decide, and so the Bullock/Sarbanes ticket wrote its way into history.
Bob Bullock
Adlai Stevenson III
Larry Agran
Neil Goldschmidt
John Silber
The New Force ran a ticket, but headed by a no-name California liberal Republican and with ballot access lost in a number of states, few considered the party functional and it was regarded as a non-factor throughout the campaign.
Pulling out of the summer, polling showed Romney and Bullock head-to-head with the President slightly favored for reelection. Republicans rallied around Romney and Carlson because they might not have been the preferred candidates but they were getting some of the bread and butter issues of the GOP solved in Congress and besides, it wasn't wise to switch horses midstream. But then, Bullock made a number of gaffes. He made questionable statements about Mormons, insinuating Church President Dunn ran a cult and Romney was in on whatever debauched things happened in Salt Lake City. Bullock's campaign fizzled out, at least in the sense of polling. He continued to make speeches and campaign across the country, but observers could tell his heart was not in the fight. Meanwhile, his alcohol dependency became more pronounced. Rumors spread that Bullock had drunkenly threatened a number of staffers, including campaign manager John Hickenlooper. All of this doomed the Democratic ticket and contributed to a resounding 348-190 loss on November 3rd. Texas barely went for Bullock and only did so through the tireless campaigning of the Bullock machine. Romney did receive fewer electoral votes in 1992 than 1988, something that bucked trends, but given the extraordinary nature of 1988 and the three-way battle for the White House, pundits were unsurprised. Democratic candidates for lower offices ran ahead of Bullock and Sarbanes and made gains in the Senate while faltering in the House. Romney returned to Washington in January of 1993 emboldened and prepared for a more productive, conservative administration.
President Vernon Romney / Vice President Arne Carlson (Republican) - 348 EVs
Governor Robert "Bob" Bullock / Senator Paul Sarbanes (Democratic) - 190 EVs
* - Much of this is inspired by Larry Bond and Patrick Larkin's novel Vortex.
** - In the aftermath of the Imperial presidencies of Johnson, Yorty, and Reagan doves on both sides of the aisle came together to restrict the ability of the President to unilaterally commit the United States to armed conflict.
*** - TTL's MADD.