The wild card is how effective one thinks the Soviet Navy would be in interdicting ship loads of REFORGER equipment & supplies.
The wild card is how effective one thinks the Soviet Navy would be in interdicting ship loads of REFORGER equipment & supplies.
IIRC there were 7 divisions slated for REFORGER. So they would start arriving in theater after two weeks, and be fully deployed after a month? Would units already in theater even last that long?
How long it would take to deploy or how long units would last?Nobody knows.
How long it would take to deploy or how long units would last?
I think the assumption that war automatically means strategic exchange needs to be done away with. Both sides did have extensive planning and even the intention for no or limited nuclear weapons; declassified CIA documents also show that both sides understood the other did not have the intention of strategic first use.
I think the assumption that war automatically means strategic exchange needs to be done away with. Both sides did have extensive planning and even the intention for no or limited nuclear weapons; declassified CIA documents also show that both sides understood the other did not have the intention of strategic first use.
What I don't get about REFORGER is how it can happen without triggering a war. The USSR would begin losing its advantage in numbers as soon as REFORGER started. NATO would be unable to win the war without REFORGER. So why wouldn't the USSR declare that REFORGER itself constitutes an act of war? It's mobilization. It's a clear, irreversible intent to go to war. NATO might say their massive troop surge was an attempt to "protect the peace", and of course "we all know" NATO never dreamed for a minute of being the aggressor in WW3.
This is something I have never seen mentioned before. Should it have been done, they would be low quality units. Turkey would be facing a three front conflict in a general war. They'd want their best and even mediocre units at home.I recall that plans existed to get a couple of Turkish divisions to Germany as well.
Most US military planning was based on there being a period of tension/buildup before a war. A BOOB (bolt out of the blue) attack was considered the least likely scenario, and it is worth remembering that even Pearl Harbor (the prototypical BOOB attack) was not in a vacuum given how tensions between the US and Japan had been building. There were all sorts of moving parts to a prewar mobilization of which REFORGER was only a part.
This is true, throughout the Cold War it was standard practice for both sides to increase readiness in response to a major exercise, iirc both sides announced exercises in advance to allow such countermeasures to occur. This helped alleviate the danger that an exercise was cover for a pre war buildup.
Bolts from the Blue are very rare and troop movement in peacetime is very common. Reforger would start before the war and continue as it was fought.
The wild card is how effective one thinks the Soviet Navy would be in interdicting ship loads of REFORGER equipment & supplies.
That’s a new one on me. How would that be feasible to shift them through the Med and up to Germany especially when Turkish troops would be needed to defend against the Soviets and WP troops
Given that the Soviet navy abandoned all plans for interdiction pretty early and had absolutly no intention to re-fight any sort of Atlantic Battle,its effectivness on this part would default to zero. NATO believe that they would face another Battle of the Atlantic was one of their bigger misconceptions about soviet plans.
... Of course if you expect the war to either go strategic nuclear early, or the WP is washing their socks in the Channel in 2-3 weeks, then any sort of attempt to interdict resupply across the Atlantic doesn't matter because the war will be over before the first convoy after "X-day" will take a couple of weeks to assemble, cross the pond and hit a port. ...
Named locations were peacetime barracks positions. Prior to hostilities, all units would deploy to their wartime General Defense Plan (GDP). There were three wartime scenarios that could have occurred. The first was where the Warsaw Pact attacked directly out of their barracks locations with only a few days of preparation, depending on strategic surprise, NATO would have had about 48 to 72 hours warning. This was the scenario NATO feared the most. The second, and most likely, was a 7 to 10 day warning with REFORGER units moving into place and the Soviets mobilizing for 2 to 3 weeks. The last scenario would have allowed full deployment for both sides.
Note 2: According to the Army’s Historical Summary for 1989, Guard divisions would have required between 25 and 50 days of training and organizing following mobilization to be ready to deploy, while separate brigades would have required 25-40 days of training and organizing.