Originally I meant to describe all the preparations for war on both sides in a single post but time constraints and concerns for length made me just decide to make a post solely about the Hanoverian side of things.
I have certain doubts about the Swedish part. In 1741 at the beginning of the war they had 17 - 18,000 and in September - October raised it to the paper number of 22,800 out of which only 15 - 16,000 could be deployed. All this with a considerable French financial support. Russia started war with a deployment of approximately 20,000 and the number (AFAIK) did not raise above 30,000. By the end of August of 1742 Russian troops occupied all Finland which, by conditions of the capitulation, Swedish troops had to leave with a loss of all artillery, which probably indicates Russian numeric advantage. Taking into an account that in your scenario Sweden has 14 years less to recuperate from the GNW losses, I’d assume that it’s mobilization effort would produce even more modest results.
Some considerations which may or may not be useful for you scenario: in 1741 one of the declared reasons for Sweden going to war was Russian embargo on the grain sales to Sweden and another was a French promise of giving Sweden back the territories lost in the GNW if Cesarevna Elizabeth receives Russian throne (needless to say that as soon as she did get the throne, Elizabeth reneged on that promise). Absent these factors, Sweden is rushing into the war with nothing more than the unsustainable British promises of help (experience of the GNW should be rather discouraging in that aspect). Not to mention that until the late 1730’s the pro-Russian party was dominating Swedish politics. So how about Sweden limiting itself to making the notices while quietly assuring Russia that nothing serious should be expected from their side? . (of course, the decision is entirely up to you).
At least according to Wiki, Prussian Army of 1720 has 55,000 and of 1730 - 60,000. 75,000 had been reached only in 1733 after Frederic Wilhelm introduced conscription.
I offered 40000 as a number to compare the two Scandinavian states. Denmark-Norway, although not without any difficulty, can raise nearly 40000 soldiers. For Sweden, that would require scraping the barrel of their manpower most likely. This way, people understand how Sweden has fallen relative to its neighbors as a consequence of the defeat in the Great Northern War.
In 1741 Russia had come off two victories against the Poles and then the Ottomans. Russia had even an army all the way to the Neckar in 1733. As a result by 1741 Russia was more scary to Sweden and more respected as a military power in general, which is why the Swedes were so wary to attack in 1741. In 1727, Sweden's fear of Russia is less (Sweden is definitely still afraid though). Additionally, Britain's influence and the assembly of the Hanoverian alliance was quite impressive for Sweden. The real reason Sweden was willing to declare war on Russia, however, was their expectation of Prussia being an ally rather than a foe.
Emil Daniels says 70000 in 1728, Cambridge dropped a number of 72000, and Reed Browning gives me 80000 in 1740. I'll probably drop it down to line up with Daniels.
Less fear does not mean a greater army, especially if Russian-friendly party has an upper hand, which as I understand was the case in 1720s. BTW, Russian-Ottoman war probably had an opposite effect in the terms of scaring because, while involving a number of the Russian victories, it demonstrated a lot of weaknesses in the military organization and resulted in the big losses without any noticeable gain. AFAIK, it was one of the triggers of the Swedish revanchism showing that Russia may not be as strong as expected.
As for Prussia, 80,000 in 1740 seems to be a consensus but it was after a serious conscription reform. Numbers of 55,000 in 1720 and 60,000 in 1730 are from “Прусская Армия Фридриха Вильгельма Первого” by Александр Морозов. Not that the differences between your and my numbers are making a principal difference for your schema.
To the north, in Denmark, the same panic felt by the Brunswickers was felt by the Danes. The Danish had for years managed to avoid an actual confrontation over the issue of Holstein due to Britain's interference in favor of Denmark-Norway. With the Battle of Saaremaa, things, of course, had changed. Denmark did not delay in reinforcing its garrisons in Holstein and raising more men to join them. Ultimately, the Danes expected to support a field army of 37000 men, which was quite large for a population of Denmark-Norway's size. However, many of the Danes feared that this would not be enough to stop the combined strength of Russia and Prussia. In Sweden, the politicians realized that they may have perhaps miscalculated by declaring war on Russia. Russia could easily support hundreds of thousands of soldiers. Sweden, on the other hand, was still reeling from the lost almost 250000 men in the Great Northern War. Now the Swedes would be fortunate to raise even 40000 men. Still, many hoped that a defensive strategy in Finland and Pomerania could hold back the Russians and Prussians until Sweden's allies won the elsewhere.
I'm gonna be annoying here.
Denmark is not liking this, maybe panic but the most valuable territories are gonna be safe, considering the lack of navy on the Vienna side.
37.000 troops hmm I think that is lowballing what Denmark can field.
Now I do not have access to my books (in a storage room while I'm finding a new apartment) so I might be off on some of this.
However, the Dano-Norwegian peacetime army is actually quite a bit larger than the 37.000 during this time.
In Norway there are 20.000-30.000 troops, in general militia's and conscripts, basically, all are recruited from the Norwegian population.
In Denmark there are 35.000 troops, of these, 15.000 (I believe infantry only) is the Land-Milits (so militia units) recruited from the Danish population. the remaining 20.000, five infantry regiments and 15 cavalry regiments are mostly foreigners especially the five infantry regiments.
I don't actually know if the army numbers of the Danish part, includes the duchy's so can't comment on that.
Anyways the point is during this time the Danish state is highly militarized, it is first in 1730 that the milits is disbanded, (introduced again in 1742) and in the late 17xx's that the army has transferred to a mostly national one than based on both nationals and foreigners.
And there might be an argument that the Danish army is the largest one, in comparison to the population during this time. I can't remember the exact number, but basically, 70-80 % of the state budget is going into the armed forces during this period. Quite a ridiculous number.
in 1727 the army is mostly the one that was used in the Great Nordic War. generally an effective fighting force (the two corps in the service of the Habsburg monarchy, and the Anglo-Dutch service in the Spanish succession war fought very well) and a highly professional officer corps to boot.
About half the Danish army served in these two corps during the 1701-1710'sh which put their numbers at 22.000. Meaning the Danish army back then were about 44.000 regular troops (I don't believe the militias are counted here.)
Now the important part about this is that the troops in Norway have one role, defense against Sweden. If Sweden is an ally Denmark can move rather many of these troops to Holstein to aid the defense.
Anyways I think @Jürgen and @Sian know far more about this than me
Likely I think Christian Ditlev Reventlow will probably enter service again, he had served under Eugene of Savoy, and supposedly had been highly valued by him so..
At the start of the Great Northern War, the number I have for Denmark-Norway is 36,000. After Denmark-Norway initially dropped out, they rented out a large of their army (the number I had was 20000 so not far off) to the Grand Alliance. At home, they raised a large force of militia for the defense of Norway against a possibly Swedish attack, which brought up the total strength of the Danish-Norwegian army up significantly. Ultimately at the end of the war, Denmark-Norway was supporting a very massive army. The reason, for the Danish army starting out at a lower level is because of post-war demobilization, this being the very start of the war, and these numbers specifically referencing Denmark-Norway's field army rather than the whole army. However, I will go ahead and up the Danish numbers a bit just to be safe. During the war, I have all intentions to raise Danish field numbers as more soldiers are raised and more militia are deployed to the field army..
The Holstein Party lose its power in 1726 and early 1727, which is why Sweden OTL joined the Hanoverian Alliance in direct opposition to Russia. From what I've read the Swedes did not see it as a damnation of the Russian army. Most of Europe was more concerned with the Austrian performance. edit: To be clear the Swedes made a major miscalculation based on Prussia and to a lesser extent overestimating Britain. Now they will try to salvage the situation.
Overall, the Prussian numbers should not play a major role in determining the course or even actions of the war. Whether the Prussians have a total of 70000 or not does not matter so much as many soldiers they can afford to supply and send on military campaigns.
how powerful is the Russian army ?
Denmark had a standing army of around 50.000 people at the time, the Great Northern War had given Denmark full control over Schleswig and the co-ruled part of Holstein had de facto become Danish, beside that both the Danish population and economy had grown which explain the bigger army size. Danish goals I’m such a war will always be the annexation of Holstein-Gottorp, but Danish trust of Britain are at a all time low, they likely need to throw other bribes after Denmark, in the War of Polish Succession France gave St. Croix to Denmark to not close the Baltic off and stay neutral, Britain could give the British Virgin Island to sweeten the deal for Denmark.
I’m not sure of Russian naval strength at this time, but I expect that the Danish and Swedish babies are big enough to be able to deal with it. But it raise the question, if Sweden get it’s Baltic provinces back, what do Denmark get? Yes Holstein-Gottorp are nice, but is it worth a strengthen Sweden? Maybe Sweden and Denmark make a deal where Denmark will receive Swedish Pomerania and Wismar if Sweden regain Estonia and Livonia, this would create two natural different Baltic spheres of interest for Denmark and Sweden, which wouldn’t overlap.
With Russia at war, Menshikov, already the most powerful man in Russia, took undisputed control over the Russian war effort. Under Menshikov's leadership, the Supreme Privy Council decided the first set of actions for Russia's war. Apraksin was to continue to defend Russia's coasts and in particular the ports of Reval and Riga. Mikhail Mikhailovich Golitsyn, who had led the Russians in Finland during the Great Northern War, and Christoph von Münnich, Russia's newest General-in-Chief, were to organize the defense of St. Petersburg and once they were ready, an invasion of Finland. Peter Lacy and his army of 30000 men was to finally stop languishing in Livland and promptly march on Hanover to deliver Catherine's fury. Charles Frederick, the Duke of Holstein-Gottorp, and seventh member of the privy council requested that he be given command of Lacy's army. Menshikov, however, recognized Charles Frederick's lack of experience and was unwilling to consent to the request. Out of respect, Menshikov did allow Charles Frederick and his cousin Charles Augustus to join Lacy's army but as clear subordinates [1]. For Menshikov himself was reserved the prodigious task of assembling and then commanding another field army destined for Germany, this one was to twice the size of Lacy's. Under these conditions, the stage for Russia's war was set.
Peter Lacy's march to the west was a spectacle for all Europe to witness. After taking a few weeks to ready his army for the march, he crossed the Russian border with Courland in late June. There Lacy quickly dispelled any belief in that Maurice de Saxe could rule the Duchy of Courland without the express approval of the Empress of Russia as the Russian army rested in Mitau. Heavily in debt and now deprived of his duchy, Maurice had few options left. The option which he chose was to offer to join the Russian army just as he had done in 1713. As a commander in the Russian army, Maurice would once again be employed which would help with his money troubles. More importantly, service with the Russians might earn him the respect and favor he needed from Empress Catherine to finally be permitted to assume the title Duke of Courland and Semigallia. Lacy accepted the offer as means of confirming Maurice's removal from Courland and of adding another experienced to his army. Among the army's leaders, he found fast companions in the genial Holsteiners and soon began to learn a great deal from Lacy [2].
As the Russians marched through Ducal Prussia, Poland, and Brandenburg they were quite a sight. Tens of thousands of fine soldiers with good discipline and modern arms. These Russians were not the Asiatic beasts which Western Europe had long overlooked but instead were shining examples of a new and modern Russia. However, the Russians were hampered by the great distance at which they meant to travel. Indeed very few days the Russian army was forced to rest so as not to outmarch its supply train. Still, the Russians were making surprising speed, mainly due to Lacy's superb command. Overall, the Russian army made an incredible impression on the rest of Europe and put fear into the hearts of the Hanoverian Alliance as they wondered how long before the rest of the Russian army would be unleashed [3].
Finally, after weeks of harsh marching, in September the Russians arrived in Brunswick-Luneburg. The arrival of the Russians after fourteen weeks of marching came as a huge surprise to Britain and France and further demonstrated just how greatly they had underestimated Russia. Neither of them nor even Russia's ally the Hapsburgs had expected such decisive and deliberate action by the Russians and now a not insignificant Russian army stood in Northern Germany ready to impose its will. The Holsteiners, of course, wanted that will to be a strike against Denmark-Norway, who had seized Holstein-Gottorp as soon as the war had broken out. Despite Charles Frederick esteemed position on the Supreme Privy Council, his wishes did not supersede those of Menshikov and Empress Catherine. which involved the obliteration of Brunswick-Luneburg. As a result, Lacy joined his army with that of Prince Leopold of Anhalt-Dessau, presenting the electorate of Brunswick-Luneburg with the greatest threat to its existence it had faced.
[1] Charles Augustus (love of Empress Elisabeth's life) lives. In the immediate aftermath of the Battle of Saaremaa, there is a whole lot of movement and politics and so on. As a result, Charles talks to different people, does different things, and avoids contracting smallpox.
[2] At this time OTL Maurice left Courland for France and ultimately became a French general. TTL at the time he is going Courland there is a field army there and a good job opportunity. He takes it, let's see where it leads him.
[3] In OTL just a few years later the Russians would make quite the scene on their march to the Rhine Valley under Lacy's command. Their discipline and organization at that time are what prompted the great amount of fear France had regarding Russia during the War of the Austrian Succession where despite the fact that they were winning the war they felt forced to make peace as a Russian army advanced across Germany.
Word Count: 1424
Yeah, this is going to hurt for the Hanoverian Alliance. Some more than others.
Agree that Sweden joining is a pretty stupid move. It has no chance to hold the Baltic provinces. Russia would have to suffer several catastrophic defeats, and basically lose several armies entirely just to allow them to be taken. Even then, there's little to stop Russia from just retaking it in ten years. In Finland, it is probably best to fall back 100km while taking everything of value while destroying infrastructure. Hope Russia decides that it is enough of a side theater that they send only enough that Sweden has a chance to defend against. Better to focus on retaking Rugen, and relieving Stralsund. Keep some sort of foothold if the theater in Germany turns to act against Prussia.
Britain will probably lose Hanover. They should probably aim to keep hold of Jutland, as if Jutland is lost any counterattack would probably be focused on retaking Jutland. If Holstein is held, the counterattack would be focused on Hanover. Otherwise, typical British tactics. Do their best to keep their allies in and fighting with subsidies, soaking up casualties, and Britain can focus on naval affairs to win the economic war.
Russia, the worst I can see things going for them is their Baltic trade getting destroyed by Denmark-Sweden, the Dutch, and the Netherlands. They also could get entangled in a distant war that costs a lot of money for a single German duchy. They're the participant least likely to lose any territory, besides maybe Saxony and Bavaria, but their Baltic navy and trade could strategically suffer.
I'd assume this would be a short war won by the Vienna group. Just too few of the Hanoverian Alliance are really serious and willing to get into a long fight. I think its safe to say Hanover will fall, and after a few more defeats would have Sweden, the Netherlands, and probably France leaving as there's simply no profit for them. That would cause the rest to pull out. Denmark would lose Holstein-Schleswig, but would start preparing for the next war to retake it. Britain's royals either deal with their loss of Hanover, or find out parliament doesn't care.
However as I doubt this timeline is meant to be about a short, hypothetical war, I assume the Hanoverian Alliance will rally to make this a great war worthy of writing a timeline about. Looking forward to see how they manage that, since right now they seem at a complete disadvantage on most fronts except maybe where France goes.
I have certain doubts about the Swedish part. In 1741 at the beginning of the war they had 17 - 18,000 and in September - October raised it to the paper number of 22,800 out of which only 15 - 16,000 could be deployed. All this with a considerable French financial support. Russia started war with a deployment of approximately 20,000 and the number (AFAIK) did not raise above 30,000. By the end of August of 1742 Russian troops occupied all Finland which, by conditions of the capitulation, Swedish troops had to leave with a loss of all artillery, which probably indicates Russian numeric advantage. Taking into an account that in your scenario Sweden has 14 years less to recuperate from the GNW losses, I’d assume that it’s mobilization effort would produce even more modest results.
Some considerations which may or may not be useful for you scenario: in 1741 one of the declared reasons for Sweden going to war was Russian embargo on the grain sales to Sweden and another was a French promise of giving Sweden back the territories lost in the GNW if Cesarevna Elizabeth receives Russian throne (needless to say that as soon as she did get the throne, Elizabeth reneged on that promise). Absent these factors, Sweden is rushing into the war with nothing more than the unsustainable British promises of help (experience of the GNW should be rather discouraging in that aspect). Not to mention that until the late 1730’s the pro-Russian party was dominating Swedish politics. So how about Sweden limiting itself to making the notices while quietly assuring Russia that nothing serious should be expected from their side? . (of course, the decision is entirely up to you).
At least according to Wiki, Prussian Army of 1720 has 55,000 and of 1730 - 60,000. 75,000 had been reached only in 1733 after Frederic Wilhelm introduced conscription.