Stupid Luck and Happenstance, Thread II

[ejpsan]

Those are some good points but economics is not a Zero Sum Game, I have no doubt that President Truman and President Harriman have been courting other countries with the prospect of getting their foot in the door in the biggest market out there, the United States.
So American companies are opening manufacturing plants in places like Mexico to take advantage of lower wages and exporting higher cost items, this making Mexican workers richer and they have more disposable income.
Another thing is that we are talking about multinational corporations that have different divisions like GM could have an auto plant in Brazil while Opal which is part of GM could also have a plant in Brazil.
What is going on ITTL is that American companies do not have the same clout that they did IOTL but they are doing just fine, it just that they do not have same amount of control.

 

[Rinasoir]

Or, and maybe I'm being an optimist here, the rest of the world seizes on the opportunity to curtail Chinese saber rattling with a nice international summit.

Cut down on some of the economic obligations still owed by China to the Western Powers in return for calming the fuck down, maybe including actual economic independence in trade. Then if China wants to use that money to buy USA, that's their decision.

The Chinese government gets to save face with its population. America gets a diplomatic win on the level of Teddy's involvment in the Russo-Japanese war. The world avoids another war. Germany and co get to sell more stuff to Nam, Korea and Japan in preparation for the next time the RoC leadership feels rocky.

 

[Peabody-Martini]

Chapter One Thousand Three Hundred Seventy-Seven


15th June 1960

Tempelhof, Berlin

“You’ve worked hard over the last several weeks and shown a lot of improvement” Kat had said, “So you can either come with me to meet my niece or you can be smart and get some sleep this afternoon but that is all that is happening. Consider it a reward.”

That was what Kat had told Kiki before she had gotten in her car and drove off with Douglas. Minutes later Kiki was sitting at the kitchen table in Kat’s house still unsure what to do. That was when a basket of potatoes and turnips was dropped in front of her. She was startled by that.

“If a foolish girl is looking for something to do then I am more than happy to help, those need to be peeled and cleaned” Petia said sharply in Russian. Kiki noticed that Marie was looking at her with a smirk on her face. Kat’s children would learn early that looking at loose ends around the Housekeeper was asking for exactly this to happen.

As Kiki picked up the knife, she recalled that she had lived in this house herself for a long time. She should have known that this might happen. Perhaps Kat was right, she needed to sleep and time to regain her bearings. Listening to Petia argue with Serhiy in the manner that they had for years was oddly comfortable. Serhiy and his wife Julia were the household staff along with Noella who minded the children.

After a spell of peeling potatoes, Jo joined her. Kiki had always had trouble getting a read on the girl. She seemed to be devoid of color and that extended to her personality as well.

“Did you do anything fun for your birthday?” Kiki asked, knowing that Jo had turned fourteen just a couple weeks earlier.

“We had a party here” Jo said as she reached for another turnip, “Just a few friends from school and family. It was all I wanted.”

They continued peeling for a time when Kiki felt something cold touch her arm. Looking down she saw Fleur, the little dog that was very much a part of Kat’s family. Marie had told Kiki over the Easter Holiday that she wanted a kitten, Kiki was certain that Fleur would have a great deal to say about that in the unpleasant ways that dogs made their opinions known. Absurdly, Fleur thought that Kiki had food. With that, Tatiana and Malcolm walked in and joined the argument about the food that was being prepared for dinner that night.

As Kiki sat in the boisterous household, she realized that far more than sleep, this is what she needed.


Wunsdorf-Zossen

When Kat had called Petia she learned that Kiki was joining the children for dinner that night. Regardless of what Kiki tried to present to the world, she still wanted the comforts of home and family. It was one of the few things that Kiki had done lately that Kat didn’t have a quibble with. It had been difficult for her not to tell Kiki that she was a stupid and naïve child. That her idealism would only bring her pain if it didn’t get her killed.

Kiki had no idea that at the top of German Military there were changes to the leadership that were coming because Emil von Holz was basically out the door already. It was only a few weeks from becoming official. The new leadership would be looking to prove themselves for political reasons. Kat’s source within the High Command had said that many of them felt that the crisis in Korea could just be the opportunity that they were looking for to do just that. If that happened, Kiki would not be sent to Vietnam to care for orphans as she and her friends joked. Instead she would get sent to Korea and because of what Kat was starting to feel were her misguided efforts years earlier, no one would have a problem sending a girl like Kiki into what would probably be the sort of meatgrinder not seen since the Soviet War ended. All Kat could do was do her best to prepare Kiki to survive. She had made the lessons as difficult as possible hoping that it would cause Kiki to quit, it hadn’t worked.

It also directly affected Kat’s family and her closest friends. Hans was unlikely to be deployed as he was currently in the General Staff supervising the Heer’s training, Helene didn’t say it aloud, but she was relieved by that outcome. Gerta wasn’t so fortunate. As one of the leading Generals in the Panzer Corps, Kurt was expecting an order to prepare for movement to arrive at any time.

It was Tilo Schultz who was in the most difficult situation. Nancy was seven months pregnant and the Marine Infantry was talking about giving him a series of crash promotions because they wanted a proven, effective leader in charge of the 3rd Marine Infantry. He also spoke Korean and Japanese. On paper he was perfect, however he didn’t want to leave Nancy. Her brother Stefan led a Company in the 140th Regiment and if the Heer deployed to the Far East again, he would be in the vanguard. He and Nizhoni had just welcomed Elke Nina Sháńdíín Mischner-Horst, the name a nod to both the little girl’s grandmothers and her great-grandmother in distant Arizona. Her thoughts interrupted when Nizhoni handed Kat her newest niece.

“My hope was that along with your parents, I could leave world a better place for you” Kat whispered to Elke who was staring at her with eyes she didn’t quite know how to focus yet. “It looks like I was wrong.”

 

[weasel_airlift]

“My hope was that along with your parents, I could leave world a better place for you” Kat whispered to Elke who was staring at her with eyes she didn’t quite know how to focus yet. “It looks like I was wrong.”

Chaos will always triumph over order. It is the way of things.

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

The new leadership would be looking to prove themselves for political reasons. Kat’s source within the High Command had said that many of them felt that the crisis in Korea could just be the opportunity that they were looking for to do just that.

You know, its weird, but I actually hate the idea of the US supporting the chinese in this with what Harriman was suggesting with "foreign advisors", but at the same time its like - THe Germans really need to stuff up sometime.

Everyone someone being caught flatfooted by the CHinese would be an interesting twist actually.

As Kiki sat in the boisterous household, she realized that far more than sleep, this is what she needed.

Is Ben still around the corner?

 

[mkemp]

So Germany kicked the Japanese out of China and now the Chinese are feeling disrespected that Germany didn't ask permission, and the're also ticked about Germany's involvement in the Boxer Rebellion back in 1900. I'm surprised that they aren't bringing up Germany not turning Taiwan over to them, or the Second Seebatallion and Tsingtao. And now the Chinese are asking the USA for military hardware and training?

The Chinese have some hardware that was left behind when the Heer left plus they're making their own small arms (Shrub bought the German guns that the Chinese are replacing.) They're likely making their own tanks, trucks and APCs and just want the US' manufacturing ability.

The Chinese are eating lead paint chips off their playpen bars if they're going to depend on the US for training.

Oh, and they seem to be ignoring the Chinese Exclusion Act

 

[DarkObelisk]

Everyone someone being caught flatfooted by the Chinese would be an interesting twist actually.

It will be very interesting if China turns into Germany’s Vietnam. There is a reason why there is a saying of don’t get in a ground war in Asia. And if China wins with US support we could see the beginning of a counter balance to German power and influence.

I’m very interested in seeing where things are going.

 

[holyknight]

I have no doubt that President Truman and President Harriman have been courting other countries with the prospect of getting their foot in the door in the biggest market out there, the United States.

........ Wrong.

At this point in history, even without Communism in the air, most of the Nations in Asia and the Third World want actually to be capable of stand for themselves rather than depend on exporting of Commodities.

The US isn't like in OTL investing in order to improve the quality of life and the economic situation in Asia and America as part of their Anti communism strategies.

Moreover , you seem to be once again super-imposing the OTL economic and monetary reality, to what it's the reality of the US in the starting 60'S ITTL, something that to this height is NOWHERE close to OTL due to multiple factors.

No BILLIONS of dollars in Hard currency or lend lease owed by the British and French.

Not HUNDREDS of Factories that provided virtually 9/10 of everything that the Allied used in OTL, from food to War materials, and that post War enabled the American industry to produce at near nominal costs while making a killing in sells world wide, all while most of the Industry in Europe needed to be rebuilt from bombed scraps

And NO GI Bill that enabled a WHOLE Generation post War to go to the Universities, ensuring that the 50's and 60 would have a whole generation of professionals that injected further knowledge and inventive to the American Industry.

As such, if anything, the Americans are slowly getting more and more in second place, as the 3rd World nations are giving facilities to Germany and European Nations that have been copying the German style of "Diplomacy", Namely to ONLY open their doors to those Nations who, like Germany, are making solid investments in building up the industry and infrastructure in those countries that receive them, and guarantee that their people will get works decently remunerated, adequate education and investment in their surroundings.

Cuba was the biggest example of the starting clash at the end of the 50's , not between Communism and Capitalism, but between Langism/Social Democracy and Old Style Capitalism,

Simply at this point in the timeline, your affirmation simply lacks empirical support based on the events in the timeline itself.

Moreover you are falling in an utter fallacy, namely that you seem to forget that A China that hasn't fallen to Communism is STILL THE biggest market of the world out of sheer numbers, and THAT is the core motivation of Harriman deciding to support them.

Had he actually gotten a clue about the geopolitical forces involved in the background , he would grasp that to get the United States mixed up in Korea its the tactical and strategic equivalent of getting his wedding tackle straight into a wood chipper.

In the moment that the Americans support the Chinese, not only the Germans, but the Vietnamese, the Japanese AND possibly the British and Hindi AND the Russians will get involved.

This will be a Dark page for everyone, a comedy of errors in judgement and understanding of Asian behaviour and society by the Americans, and one that will haunt Harriman and America for a long time.....

 

[Rinasoir]

This will be a Dark page for everyone, a comedy of errors in judgement and understanding of Asian behaviour and society by the Americans, and one that will haunt Harriman and America for a long time.....

Only if it actually comes to combat, which we have no guarantee it will. Diplomacy can still easily win out up to the moment the first shot is fired. This is a China that never fell to communism, so the Western powers have a lot of diplomatic and political pressure they can use in this situation.

As for other countries, two things I'd point out. Firstly, the British will only care about the British. So long as whoever is running the show in Peking (or wherever the RoC capital is located) don't threaten the free commerce of trade or Hong Kong, they are not going to hesitate to sell them weapons.

Secondly, Russia. Oh they've taken a lot of damage, and Germany could still wipe them from the planet. But China is a huge market, and Russia could stand to make a lot of money off of this. Maybe overt aid would be pushing things too far, but material aid? Russian bureaucracy can hide that easy enough, as unless Louis Ferdinand is willing to literally glass the nation in Nuclear fire, the worst Germany can do is sanctions. Sanctions that would ironically allow Russia more interdependence in action...

 

[jlckansas]

Secondly, Russia. Oh they've taken a lot of damage, and Germany could still wipe them from the planet. But China is a huge market, and Russia could stand to make a lot of money off of this. Maybe overt aid would be pushing things too far, but material aid? Russian bureaucracy can hide that easy enough, as unless Louis Ferdinand is willing to literally glass the nation in Nuclear fire, the worst Germany can do is sanctions. Sanctions that would ironically allow Russia more interdependence in action...

No I can see Russia wanting to get Manchuria back into its sphere, if not as part of Russia itself as an independent(Russia dependent) country. Selling things to China gives them nothing in return except some influence and cash. Georgie would use this as an excuse to bring greatness back to the Rodina. If they were to make some concessions to Korea and Japan, they could get them to even help in someways because Japan and Korea know that Germany would want to limit Russia eventually and they would have their big brother in Europe to back them up. One thing that is not being discussed is how much of a multi-front war this could be for China. You have Vietnam (German influence) to the South, Tibet (UK) to the Southwest, Russia to the West and North through Northeast, Korea and Japan (Germany and possibly UK and France), and the area around Hong Kong being UK.

 

[holyknight]

Only if it actually comes to combat, which we have no guarantee it will. Diplomacy can still easily win out up to the moment the first shot is fired. This is a China that never fell to communism, so the Western powers have a lot of diplomatic and political pressure they can use in this situation.

As for other countries, two things I'd point out. Firstly, the British will only care about the British. So long as whoever is running the show in Peking (or wherever the RoC capital is located) don't threaten the free commerce of trade or Hong Kong, they are not going to hesitate to sell them weapons.

Secondly, Russia. Oh they've taken a lot of damage, and Germany could still wipe them from the planet. But China is a huge market, and Russia could stand to make a lot of money off of this. Maybe overt aid would be pushing things too far, but material aid? Russian bureaucracy can hide that easy enough, as unless Louis Ferdinand is willing to literally glass the nation in Nuclear fire, the worst Germany can do is sanctions. Sanctions that would ironically allow Russia more interdependence in action...

Good points.

The problem with the first it's sadly the historical baggage from the Boxer Wars, and that makes more likely to cause the opposite effect if the European Powers try to press the Chinese.

Add the Americans blatantly in the Chinese side and the heavily inclined territory demand from Korea and the whole negotiations are already sabotaged, specially if you consider the fiercely patriotic Korean nature....

Russia and China? (SNERK)... i do not discount that they can make business, but historically they trust each other as far as can they throw the other side.

The restored Russian Empire while in the process of regaining their military and geopolitical strength, they are also in while not fully friendly, actually decent economic relations with Germany.

Not in vain, one of the biggest points of the Soviet War ITTL was that it wasn't a war against the Russians, but against the Tyrannical regime of Stalin and a doctrine that threatened the whole of Europe.

Outside some minimal Frontier fixes and the independence of Ukraine, Russia actually got off damn light outside the obvious purge of NKVD and Communist fanatics.

Anyway, the fact is that before it fell under the Japanese Empire sphere, the Joseon/Korea were considered UNDER the Imperial Russian protection due to the shared Frontier with Russia, and between abandoning one of the few loyal countries to the Russian empire before the Russian Japanese War, and to the Chinese of all people... Well.... Add that the Imperial Russians ain't exactly in a friendly relationship with the US, specially remembering the aid that the Soviets received from the Americans, or more recently a certain incident where a Spetnaz team went into the US aiding a certain Grand Duchess to rescue a friend... And give several Makarov, 7.62 painkillers.

So, nope, the Russians are highly unlikely to back the Chinese, specially with the Americans backing them in addition to all the before mentioned.

The British may not care about China. They however bloody care about the relationship with the Indians who ARE VERY CONCERNED about the Chinese Sabre rattling and about the territories and Dominions still in that part of the world that at this point are ALSO starting to worry about said Chinese sabre rattling.

They also worry about Hong Kong and at least keep an image of power.. So I can imagine at least some British support, specially Indian and Gurkha troops.....

 

[Mandolin]

Anyway, the fact is that before it fell under the Japanese Empire sphere, the Joseon/Korea were considered UNDER the Imperial Russian protection due to the shared Frontier with Russia, and between abandoning one of the few loyal countries to the Russian empire before the Russian Japanese War, and to the Chinese of all people... Well.... Add that the Imperial Russians ain't exactly in a friendly relationship with the US, specially remembering the aid that the Soviets received from the Americans, or more recently a certain incident where a Spetnaz team went into the US aiding a certain Grand Duchess to rescue a friend... And give several Makarov, 7.62 painkillers.

Makarovs are 9mm, Tokarevs are 7.62.

 

[holyknight]

Makarovs are 9mm, Tokarevs are 7.62.

Point, still the end result was several Doctors and Helpers of an US psychiatric asylum getting a hands on lesson on "Spetnaz style Lobotomy"

 

[Tursiops Amicus]

The US isn't like in OTL investing in order to improve the quality of life and the economic situation in Asia and America as part of their Anti communism strategies.

That never happened really. It was more about getting cheap raw materials.

Mos of the support was for elites and dictatorships support.

 

[Peabody-Martini]

Chapter One Thousand Three Hundred Seventy-Eight


15th July 1960

Tempelhof, Berlin

“I wish to congratulate all of you who have made it this far” The Instructor said, “The certifications will be placed in your file. Please come to front to collect the patch and pin that you have earned. Your orders will also be given to you and I wish you luck in the future.”

And with that, two years of hard work was over.

Kiki didn’t know what she was expecting, but that seemed rather anticlimactic. Walking to front of the lecture hall Kiki was handed a silver pin that was to go on the blue beret that was worn by those in the Medical Service, a silver wreath with the Staff of Asclepius. The patch was similar except it didn't have the wreath and was to be sewn onto the sleeve of the field uniform of a Medic. When Kiki saw the one that she had been handed, she saw that an obvious mistake had been made. It was edged with a twisted cord.

“Sir” Kiki said to her Instructor once she had gotten his attention, “There is a problem here, this one is for a Noncommissioned Officer.”

The Instructor looked at her, like if she was this unexpected specimen in a jar that had been left out.

“Your volunteerism, dedication and the additional training that you have been doing to address your deficiencies in your off hours has not gone unnoticed” The Instructor said, “Besides that, what did you expect was going to happen if you went for nearly two years without having to be disciplined over anything of note?”

“Excuse me Sir?” Kiki asked, wondering what he was getting at.

“You get promoted Fraulein Fischer” The Instructor said, “Even if you hadn’t already been accepted into the War Academy next term you would be an Unteroffizer. Anything else?”

“No” Kiki replied as he looked through the file folder on his desk before pulling out several sheets of paper.

“For you, Fraulein Fahnenjunker” He said, handing them to her. “Your uniform had best reflect your new rank as soon as possible.”

As Kiki read through the pages and saw that she had been assigned to the 6th Marine Infantry Regiment based in Pusan, Korea. The remainder were travel documents that would take her to Korea by military transport via Cuxhaven. That was not what she was expecting at all. Kiki was getting sent to the Marines and Zella and Aurora were going to laugh their heads off. They had joked that Kiki was getting sent to care for children for a long time. It seemed that the unruly children in question were going to be bigger and older than Zella and Aurora had realized.


Over the North Pacific

They had been given only a few hours to get their things together once the ink was dry on the agreement with China. Pack your gear and get on the plane was what they had been told. Jonny had had just shrugged and that this was what they had signed up for. Then it was onto a transport plane for a long flight across the country, a brief stop-over at Travis Airforce Base in Northern California and then an even longer flight across the Pacific.

Hours into the last leg of the flight, sitting in the cargo hold of an Airforce transport plane. Ritchie could only think of what he would love to say to the moron who thought that an inward facing bucket seat made of aluminum was a good idea. Having Mullens snoring loudly on one side of him and smelling Huck Spooner’s farts on the other were things that he could have easily lived without.

Jonny had come through during the weeks between when Ritchie had gotten back from California and had arranged a promotion of sorts. From Corporal to Specialist, 2nd Class. It was a move that was not quite upwards, something like the Technician 4th Grade rank that Jonny said that he had held years earlier in Mexico before it had been abolished shortly after that conflict had ended. It was a way to give Ritchie the pay and authority of a Sergeant without upsetting the balance of power within the Squad itself. The sort of authority that would be critical to the mission in the months ahead.

It also happened to be the same rank that Huck Spooner held. That got Ritchie a lot of ribbing from the others when it was announced because of that. Everyone wanted to know if Ritchie would spend his days fiddling with radios the way that Huck did. The truth was that it had everything to do with that damned cannon that he hated so much that was stowed with the rest of their gear.

It was the thought of that need for authority that brought Ritchie’s thoughts around to the absurdity of the mission. For ages the 1st SFG had thought that they could expect to be sent to places south of the Rio Grande. It was shy they had gone out of their way to recruit Spanish speakers into their ranks. Instead, they were getting sent to China. They might as well be Martians landing in Beijing for all the knowledge that they had of China’s language and culture. Only Jonny had any experience on the ground there and it was as a part of an auto race that he had participated in with Whiskey Parker a few years earlier. Jonny had said that they had done it mostly on a lark and because of the low requirements for entry in what was an inaugural race they had been able to drive across the China and Russia on the cheap. Also, they had considerable bragging rights because they had made one Hell of race there at the end in Berlin. He’d even shook the German Kaiser’s hand after coming in second place by a fraction of a second after driving thousands of miles.

That seemed exactly like the sort of thing that Jonny would do.

 

[Peabody-Martini]

I case anyone wants to know what the patch and pin look like...

 

[ejpsan]

Since Kiki can not inherit the throne, she is perfectly expendable in this case, and if anything happens to her well it is a case of "Kaiser and Empire".

 

[StevoJH]

Why would the British in this timeline want to buy *any* military hardware from the United States? The equipment manufactured by the United States is not exactly on the same level as that equipping the European armies and Air Forces.

 

[weasel_airlift]

Why would the British in this timeline want to buy *any* military hardware from the United States? The equipment manufactured by the United States is not exactly on the same level as that equipping the European armies and Air Forces.

True, OTL they only did because of desperation, and then out of a desire to have matching kit to the largest extent possible. However, this also calls into question the state of British industry. I recall reading one...industrial expert I think, from the UK that came to the US to look over a tank factory, and was shocked to find no fitting benches. Apparently it wasn't uncommon for parts to need some degree of tweaking to get them together, whereas the US factory parts were just expected to fit.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

“It looks like I was wrong.”

Her generation already has. But, not being gifted with the ability to view parallel universes.....