US annexes all of Mexico in 1848: what does the US look like today?

It seems there are some immediate effects. (The obvious, more acceptance of Tejano & Ritchie Valens being bigger than Elvis, I've already alluded to.)

Given the U.S. succeeds, it's very likely future states will be given a "sovereignty vote" option, which OTL led to Bleeding Kansas, & it's likely to be in play in numerous ex-Mexican states. (Scant chance the North allows all Mexican states to be slave states just because they're south of Mason-Dixon.)

That also means slavery is likely to expand into *New Mexico, *Arizona, & SoCal (IMO, NorCal joins as a separate state TTL), possibly as far as *Colorado, *Idaho, *Washington, & *Oregon.

The increase in territory seems likely to push the U.S. toward either annexing Canada, too; buying Rupert's Land before Canada does in 1869; or both. (This seems supported by the Fenian Raids.)

The spread of "Bleeding Kansas"-like circumstances, & the unavailability of the Army (committed in Mexico), suggests states forming militias thinly disguised as police agencies: akin to the NWMP, but masquerading as *Texas (or *Arizona) Rangers. Why? The internecine violence would call for it; there'd be Indians that need dealing with, & no cavalry to do it; & a notional police force can't be readily federalized (tho TBH, I'm not sure if that was a Thing, then).

Does this set of circumstances mean the Know-Nothings or Free Soilers have better chances in U.S. politics? IDK. (IDK if they're actually the same thing, so don't take my word for it anyhow.:openedeyewink: )

Does the greater, & wider, violence lead to the ACW happening sooner--instead of the OTL 1850 Compromise? That seems probable. It does seem to mean Lincoln isn't PotUS, so the Emancipation Proclamation doesn't happen, either. At war's end, *Reconstruction looks likely to be more brutal than OTL; less chance of Southern re-admission? Likely no 13th or 14th Amendments; certainly they don't much resemble OTL's. (Just having no 14th is a big deal. {Unabashed plug.:openedeyewink: } One long-tern benefit: no Citizens United.:cool::cool: )
 
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*Transcontinental railroad proposals date as far back as 1847 - Lake Michigan to Oregon - and by 1859 decisions regarding an eastern terminus were already well underway. Delaying the American Civil War probably sees it finished to the Pacific by 1865.

*Adding all Mexico encourages a Southern Route with a line deep into OTL Mexico spyrring just west of the Rio Grande. Likely this could be done by 1865-1870 depending on popular support and the timing of the American Civil War.

Delaying the Civil War would not accelerate the construction of a transcontinental railroad, it would delay it. In OTL, Southern politicians had obstructed building the railroad for years, without secession they would continue to obstruct it. Northern Mexican states would benefit from a southern route transcontinental railroad, but that's a small minority of the Mexican states, not enough to break the Congressional deadlock. Most of the Mexican sates would receive no direct benefit from any proposed transcontinental railroad route - they'd be far more interested in rails from Mexico City to Veracruz, San Diego, and New Orleans.
 
Delaying the Civil War would not accelerate the construction of a transcontinental railroad, it would delay it.

Unless you just gave Northern businessmen a massive incentive to connect Mexico to the West and North with one railway instead of two. Much as California could be rendered from the nation without closer connections, so could Mexico - why not build one railway with a junction at Albuquerque or elsewhere instead of two railways that might not connect for another several years after the one could be done?

In OTL, Southern politicians had obstructed building the railroad for years, without secession they would continue to obstruct it. Northern Mexican states would benefit from a southern route transcontinental railroad, but that's a small minority of the Mexican states, not enough to break the Congressional deadlock. Most of the Mexican sates would receive no direct benefit from any proposed transcontinental railroad route - they'd be far more interested in rails from Mexico City to Veracruz, San Diego, and New Orleans.

Again, connect Mexico to the rest of the Union via the same railway linking West and East. Cheaper, faster, etc.
 
The increase in territory seems likely to push the U.S. toward either annexing Canada, too; buying Rupert's Land before Canada does in 1869; or both. (This seems supported by the Fenian Raids.)
How exactly does that support the US buying Rupert's Land?
Seems more likely the British provide greater support to Canada getting it.
 
How exactly does that support the US buying Rupert's Land?
Seems more likely the British provide greater support to Canada getting it.
If you're going to have more slave states, you'll need to balance with more free states, & that means more territory.

I'm not arguing (exactly) for a U.S. conquest, but it might be seen as reasonable in Congress. Plus, at the time, HMG wasn't really interested in taking on Rupert's Land (or even keeping BC), but might be willing to make a deal. Or maybe not, IDK.
 
The question that I'm not sure anyone has asked is, "for all of the concept of the golden circle", how much of mexico could support negro slave based agriculture? For all Texas was a slave state, I am not sure a significant amount of slave based agriculture was done west of Houston (>75% of the current land of the state). In order for a new slave state to come in out of previously mexican territory, the slave holders (or those who would like to own slaves, which I'm not sure *that* many of the mexicans there would qualify for) would have to represent a majority. I'm simply not sure that any state in Mexico would qualify for that within the 30 years necessary to make a difference. The states that are good for negro labor are too populated, the ones that aren't populated are pretty useless for slave based agriculture. (Yes, you could make a state with Slavery out of Baja California (plus San Diego), but what can you really grow there?)
 
If you're going to have more slave states, you'll need to balance with more free states, & that means more territory.

I'm not arguing (exactly) for a U.S. conquest, but it might be seen as reasonable in Congress. Plus, at the time, HMG wasn't really interested in taking on Rupert's Land (or even keeping BC), but might be willing to make a deal. Or maybe not, IDK.
HMG wouldn't have been keen on an expansionist US taking any of them either
 
The question that I'm not sure anyone has asked is, "for all of the concept of the golden circle", how much of mexico could support negro slave based agriculture? For all Texas was a slave state, I am not sure a significant amount of slave based agriculture was done west of Houston (>75% of the current land of the state). In order for a new slave state to come in out of previously mexican territory, the slave holders (or those who would like to own slaves, which I'm not sure *that* many of the mexicans there would qualify for) would have to represent a majority. I'm simply not sure that any state in Mexico would qualify for that within the 30 years necessary to make a difference. The states that are good for negro labor are too populated, the ones that aren't populated are pretty useless for slave based agriculture. (Yes, you could make a state with Slavery out of Baja California (plus San Diego), but what can you really grow there?)
>1840s or 1850s dixie fireeaters
>applying economic logic or even if slavebasd agriculture is viable in a territory
 
Aside from everything that's been said, this alternate America is likely to attempt the annexation of much of the caribbean and central america, if only for strategic defense purposes. America's southern neighbor would be Colombia, eventually.
 
Aside from everything that's been said, this alternate America is likely to attempt the annexation of much of the caribbean and central america, if only for strategic defense purposes. America's southern neighbor would be Colombia, eventually.
I don't know about the entirety of Columbia But definitely of Panama and a few north parts of Colombia.
 
While it is possible Mexico under the US would become much more stable compared to OTL, how would local corruption be dealt with or would certain regions still be notorious for local corruption like a number of OTL US states?

Aside from everything that's been said, this alternate America is likely to attempt the annexation of much of the caribbean and central america, if only for strategic defense purposes. America's southern neighbor would be Colombia, eventually.

BTH would be content with the US taking much of northern Mexico in return for the latter being more stable and prosperous compared to OTL.

Do like the idea of the ATL US becoming both a significant soccer and cricket power as a result of annexation much of Mexico and the Caribbean (e.g. West Indies Cricket Team), just need to figure out a way for Fiji to become part of the US for the latter to move up the World Rugby Rankings from 15th to 9th (short of Rugby replacing American Football from the beginning).
 

Deleted member 67076

Aside from everything that's been said, this alternate America is likely to attempt the annexation of much of the caribbean and central america, if only for strategic defense purposes. America's southern neighbor would be Colombia, eventually.
If there's one thing I can see that would bankrupt the United States, it would be trying to annex everything south to Colombia. Because the sheer amount of armed forces and logistical support necessary to occupy over 1.3 million sq km of land and (at the time of 1850) circa 12 million people would be a colossal strain on the budget. To say nothing of building the infrastructure from scratch to cover that territory and how the other powers that be will react to the Colossus of the North marching south unopposed.
 

Lusitania

Donor
If there's one thing I can see that would bankrupt the United States, it would be trying to annex everything south to Colombia. Because the sheer amount of armed forces and logistical support necessary to occupy over 1.3 million sq km of land and (at the time of 1850) circa 12 million people would be a colossal strain on the budget. To say nothing of building the infrastructure from scratch to cover that territory and how the other powers that be will react to the Colossus of the North marching south unopposed.
In addition I wonder if there would of been a backlash in terms of citizenship and voting franchise throughout the country and especially south of Rio grande. Would we of seen similar laws used to deny African-Americans their rights applied to Mexicans?

We think that they were very gracious in granting all Mexicans north of Rio grande and westward because they soon where outnumbered by Ango-Saxons. This would not be case of south of Rio Grand and Carribean.
 
Actually, I think northerners will be particularly insistent on the Wilmot Proviso in the unlikely event All Mexico goes through. Many antislavery northerners had denounced the War as a slaveholders' conspiracy, and would hate the idea of an extension that could result in slavery going into not only California and New Mexico but potentially in some states south of the Rio Grande--at least the ones just to the south of it. And indeed the whole issue of slavery is one reason why I think All Mexico is so very unlikely. To quote (with a few minor changes) an old soc.history.what-if post of mine:

***

From a reading of Frederick Merk's *Manifest Destiny and Mission in American History* (which has the best discussion I know of the movement for the acquisition of "all Mexico") I am convinced that the All Mexico movement was a phenomenon of the Northeastern penny press, and never had any real chance.

There were a number of reasons for this. Whigs, north and south, were vehemently opposed to the idea, and they had a majority in the House of Representatives. Besides, financing an occupation of Mexico would be expensive, and the Democrats were proud of having lowered rates with the Walker Tariff. Many of them were worried that a continued occupation of Mexico would force a return to high tariff rates (which might be attractive to Democrats from protectionist Pennsylvania but not most others).

The most important obstacle was racism and the slavery issue. On the one hand, antislavery Northerners denounced the Mexican War and any proposals for annexing Mexican territory as a slaveholders' conspiracy; yet on the other hand, some Southerners (the Whigs and Calhoun) opposed the war entirely, and few Southerners supported the acquisition of all Mexico. (The only Southern Democratic newspaper that shared the Northeastern penny press' enthusiasm for All Mexico was at the very northeastern edge of the South--Baltimore.) Both Calhoun and the Southern Whigs harped on the argument that the Mexicans were a "colored" people, who opposed slavery and would weaken it within the Union. And whatever their disagreements with Calhoun over the war itself, most Southern Democrats agreed with Calhoun when he said:

"I know further, Sir, that we have never dreamt of incorporating into our Union any but the Caucasian race--the free white race. To incorporate Mexico would be the very first instance of the kind, of incorporating an Indian race; for more than half of the Mexicans are Indians, and the other is composed chiefly of mixed tribes. I protest against such a Union as that!...Are you, any of you, willing that your States should be governed by these twenty-odd Mexican states...a mixed blood equally ignorant and unfit for liberty, not as good as the Cherokees or Choctaws?"

Calhoun also harped on the theme that administering Mexico would require precisely the kind of centralized national government the South feared (at least unless it was sure of controlling it!).

Note also the comments of Waddy Thompson, a South Carolina Whig who had spent some time as a diplomat in Mexico: "A friend said to me today that we will not take the people, but the land. Precisely the reverse will be the case; we shall take the people, but no land. It is not the country of a savage people whose lands are held in common, but a country in which grants have been made for three hundred and twenty-five years, many of them two and three hundred miles square...it is all private property, and we shall get no public domain which will pay the cost of surveying it. I speak of the country beyond the Rio Grande. We shall get no land, but we shall add a large population, alien to us in feeling, education, race, and religion..."

It might be thought that if proslavery Southerners opposed All Mexico as a menace to slavery, antislavery Northerners should have supported it for the same reason. However, the closest thing I have been able to find to this is the proposal of the antislavery *National Era* that the United States should unilaterally declare peace and should *invite* nineteen Mexican states (the ones with sufficient population) to enter the Union as states. That newspaper was convinced that doing this would fatally undermine the Slave Power. The people of these new states would all see to it that their states would remain non-slaveholding, and they were at least as fit for self-government as the hordes of immigrants now pouring into the US from Europe...But in the first place, the *National Era* emphasized that the entrance into the Union had to be voluntary; second, despite this qualification, the idea was denounced by other antislavery forces as "pandering" to the robber spirit of conquest; and third, as one might expect, it was unanimously denounced by Southerners. In any event, there was little chance of the Mexicans agreeing to this. It is true that some of the radical "Puros" so despaired of secularizing and reforming Mexico internally, they were prepared to get reform from without--by joining the United States. But even among the Puros, it's doubtful this was a widespread sentiment--certainly their leader Gomez Farias didn't feel that way.

One gets the impression that what most Americans wanted was as much Mexican territory as possible with as few Mexicans as possible. What convinces me of the superficiality of the sentiment for "all Mexico" is that even the expansionists actually seemed relieved at Trist's treaty, despite its insubordinate origins. Thomas Ritchie of the *Washington Union* spoke for many when he expressed happiness that the land taken from Mexico was encumbered by only 100,000 Mexicans.

***

To that post, I would add just a few things:

(1) The support of the Northeastern "penny press" for All Mexico is understandable when you consider that they represented a polyglot region, and that their readers were largely immigrants, including Catholics. The rest of the country would be unlikely to share their perspective that non-Anglo-Saxons (and Catholics at that) could make good US citizens...

(2) I do not deny that some southerners wanted more accessions and even hoped that slavery could spread there. But saying "In addition to what we got under Trist's treaty, I want Coahuila and Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon" is very different from saying "I want all Mexico."

(3) On the subject of the likelihood that some of the northern Mexican states, if incorporated into the US, could support slavery: Noel Mauer (who has considerable knowledge of Mexico: see https://business.gwu.edu/noel-maurer for his background) had an interesting blog post on this some years ago:

"We have an example of a populated area switching to American rule. New Mexico had a population about as large as Coahuila's and a little more than half of Nuevo León or Chiahuahua. It provides a perfectly valid template for how those territories would have developed under American rule; with one wrinkle that I'll get to later.

"We also know what American troops experienced during the occupation. Mexican politicians in the D.F. were horrified at the level of indifference, shading over in many cases -- not least Nuevo León -- outright collaboration.

"The wrinkle, which would make Coahuila and Nuevo León different from New Mexico, is that the elites in the northeastern states actively desired American annexation and the extension of slavery. We know this because they asked for it! Santiago Vidaurri wrote a letter to Richmond in 1861 volunteering Coahuila and Nuevo León to the Confederate cause. (Vidaurri annexed Coahuila to N.L. and installed himself as the governor of Tamaulipas.)

"These sympathies predated the Civil War. In fact, Vidaurri had been perfectly happy in 1855 to return escaped slaves to Texas. The agreement failed because the Texans wanted to send in their own people to recapture the escapees, not principled opposition; ironically, he made a whole bunch of antislavery proclamations in 1857, only to reverse them and start sending slaves home in 1858. It is hard to believe that Vidaurri or the elites that supported him would have opposed slavery, given their opportunism and their incessant complaints about labor shortages..." http://noelmaurer.typepad.com/aab/2014/10/what-would-lesser-mexico-have-been-like.html

(4) In any event, with or without "All Mexico," extension of the Missouri Compromise line to the Pacific was a very pro-southern solution to the slavery-in-the-territories problem. Hardly anyone expected slavery to flourish north of that line, while protecting slavery south of that line could set a precedent for future acquisitions in Mexico (if not all of it were taken at once), Central America, Caribbean islands, and anything down to Tierra del Fuego... (No wonder that even southerners who believed in principle that the federal government had a duty to protect slavery in all territories were nevertheless willing to accept extension of the Missouri Compromise line as an acceptable "compromise"!)

(5) Don't equate slavery with cotton--many southerners hoped (and northerners feared) that slave labor could also be used for mining. That's another reason why a lot of people both north and south did not regard the slavery extension debate as a mere abstraction.

Sorry for the late answer but in https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/polks-borders-a-stronger-mexico.433743/#post-16315279, user History Learner quotes a source that argues that All Mexico was plausible and he suggests that if the peace treaty negotations lasted longer, it would have happened. What do you think of that post?
 
Sorry for the late answer but in https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/polks-borders-a-stronger-mexico.433743/#post-16315279, user History Learner quotes a source that argues that All Mexico was plausible and he suggests that if the peace treaty negotations lasted longer, it would have happened. What do you think of that post?

I made a very detailed reply at https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-more-hispanic-usa.466652/page-3#post-19080726
 
Another question would be the fate of Central America and the Caribbean - instead of banana republics we might have a US stretching to Darien
 
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