Deleted member 2186
Well i think the NATO members who fought will not look kindly towards Greece and Turkey who set out the war.
Red Storm Rising Aftermath
- Thread starter Ace009
- Start date
Very true.
Difficulty there is that the rest of NATO will still need them on the Southern Flank.
Deleted member 2186
Wich will be a little bit quieter after the beating the Soviet Union took in World war III.
In defense of Japan’s neutrality during the war, their government has always had some harsh debate on how its Self-Defense Forces can be used. Had Japan allowed the US and its allies to use the island for a base of attack or sent actual troops to a potential Far East battleground, such an action would come under immediate scrutiny from Japanese lawmakers and would probably be challenged in various courts. It might not be a matter of Japan not wanting to help their allies; it was probably more of the fact that Japan’s hands were legally tied.
Whoever will rule in Germany in 20 years, it will be not the Nazis. Why should a small and crazy politiical sect take over?
Still, if you don´t jump on the stupid "Germans become Nazis again on the drop of a hat"-theme, you have some interessting iideas.
My opinions:
1. There will be the rise of a new nationalism in Germany. There will be definitly the atttidute:"Who cares what happend 40 years ago? WE ARE NOW THE VICTIM!"
2. The Germans will change their view of the military. Obvious the Bundeswehr and nNATO did their job. They defeated the Soviets. West Germany will be a country with more then one milion war veterans. And the first time since more then 100 years, they have actually won a war.
3. There will be a blacklash against the peacenik partys SPD and Greens. but this will be propably don´t last forever. The CDU will propably turn more to the right and will be waving "the bloody shirt" in elections.
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I once tried a post-John Hacket The Third World War-TL.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/john-hacketts-„the-third-world-war-“.408846/
From this I have still a bit of text, which may show the attitude of a post-WWIII Germany.
Berlin, 23. August 2015. 30. Anniversary of the Tag des Sieges – Victory Day. The traditional military parade rolls about the Straße des 17. Juni, showing the world all the symbols of german power. Leopard 4, Marder II, Panzerhaubitze 2000 and – most important – the newest mobile missiles systems of the Nuklearen Abschreckungs-Streitkräften – Nuclear Deterrence Forces. A squadron of Eurofighter (from the look more closer to OTL Raffael then Typhoon) roars about the city, painting the sky black-red-gold. And the people of Berlin enjoy this demonstration of strength.
Yes, there are still demonstrations in the city (mostly limited by the courts to the outer districts of Berlin) against militarism, but you cannot ignore, that since 1985 a generation has grown up in Germany, which have quite a different point of view of the military and nationalism then OTL.
But even on this day of unleashed german nationalism, the Germans want to reassure themselves , that they are not alone in the world, that they have friends and allies. So does at this anniversary the great parade also include contingents of older and newer allies. At first natural the French, the most important partner and the second great power in the EU. They are actually always part of the parade, because the french Berlin-Brigade stayed in the city after the War as a symbol for the close partnership. Then the other members of the EU. This include the old NATO-allies, but also former WP-states like Poland, Hungary and the CSR. Interesting are the not-EU contingents. Iran seems like a strange choice, but it is one of the other important german partners. Britain is a surprise. Does the country after long self chosen isolation search now closer ties with the EU again? Then the Ukraine! Another candidate for inclusion in the EU?
But most important are the countries which don´t partake in the parade. The old NATO-protector USA and the new eurasian partner Russia. The german government put in a lot of effort to convince this power to be part of the anniversary, to show that finally a time of peace has started. But both nations rejected the invitation. The Russians with polite, the Americans with harsh words. The abstention of this two powers throws a shadow about Germany´s great day.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/john-hacketts-„the-third-world-war-“.408846/
From this I have still a bit of text, which may show the attitude of a post-WWIII Germany.
Berlin, 23. August 2015. 30. Anniversary of the Tag des Sieges – Victory Day. The traditional military parade rolls about the Straße des 17. Juni, showing the world all the symbols of german power. Leopard 4, Marder II, Panzerhaubitze 2000 and – most important – the newest mobile missiles systems of the Nuklearen Abschreckungs-Streitkräften – Nuclear Deterrence Forces. A squadron of Eurofighter (from the look more closer to OTL Raffael then Typhoon) roars about the city, painting the sky black-red-gold. And the people of Berlin enjoy this demonstration of strength.
Yes, there are still demonstrations in the city (mostly limited by the courts to the outer districts of Berlin) against militarism, but you cannot ignore, that since 1985 a generation has grown up in Germany, which have quite a different point of view of the military and nationalism then OTL.
But even on this day of unleashed german nationalism, the Germans want to reassure themselves , that they are not alone in the world, that they have friends and allies. So does at this anniversary the great parade also include contingents of older and newer allies. At first natural the French, the most important partner and the second great power in the EU. They are actually always part of the parade, because the french Berlin-Brigade stayed in the city after the War as a symbol for the close partnership. Then the other members of the EU. This include the old NATO-allies, but also former WP-states like Poland, Hungary and the CSR. Interesting are the not-EU contingents. Iran seems like a strange choice, but it is one of the other important german partners. Britain is a surprise. Does the country after long self chosen isolation search now closer ties with the EU again? Then the Ukraine! Another candidate for inclusion in the EU?
But most important are the countries which don´t partake in the parade. The old NATO-protector USA and the new eurasian partner Russia. The german government put in a lot of effort to convince this power to be part of the anniversary, to show that finally a time of peace has started. But both nations rejected the invitation. The Russians with polite, the Americans with harsh words. The abstention of this two powers throws a shadow about Germany´s great day.
I recently learned about a game called 83, where the cold war escalated into a hot war. Having read red storm rising that made me wonder, would a scenario like that work, but instead of infiltrating a oil refinery, overrun a us camp/exercise at a missile silo? That seams to be the thing that ignited the powder keg in the 83 game.
There is not yet many information about the premise of the game, but they gave a discord chat channel that talks about these hypothetical situations.
Sorry for my English. I find alternate history and extrapolating scenarios very fascinating.
Thank you.
There is not yet many information about the premise of the game, but they gave a discord chat channel that talks about these hypothetical situations.
Sorry for my English. I find alternate history and extrapolating scenarios very fascinating.
Thank you.
Deleted member 2186
The Soviet Union would have answer with bombers and missiles had Japan allowed any US forces to conduct operations from Japanese soil, they made it clear as i mentioned that Japan might get the Kuril Islands back if they stayed neutral ore they would suffer the severely if they joined the Allies.
Also it seems North Korea remained silent in the book, ore i think that was the case.
Just to add my thoughts on the political setting of a post-war Germany.
The talk about whether Germany will get a "Nazi"-government some decades after a WW3-conflict is probably confused by the fact that different people apply the Nazi-label to different things. To clarify my understanding, to me a Nazi-government would be
- anti-democratic (wanting to abolish elections, Führerprinzip and what not)
- anti-free market (forced cartels of national industries, four years plans etc)
- militaristic (arms build-up etc)
- revanchistic/imperialistic (wanting to claim or re-claim territory of neighboring countries)
- nationalistic (beginning at expelling and going up to the extreme point of committing mass murder on non-natives)
While I could easily see a post-war Germany being a lot less pacifistic and even somewhat vengeful against Soviet Russia, I can hardly see any major reasons for Germany to abandon democracy, the current free market structure or being less foreigner-friendly - in this scenario, the Bundesrepublik survives because of the commitment of its NATO allies, and victory - even a bitter one - would be seen as a validation of the current system. That there following a WW3 would be a demand for an Anschluss with Austria or reclaiming Suedetenland just seems without any basis in reality and more like the Soviet revival scene from the Simpsons (as seen here:
)
Still, this is a war-torn and poorer country, but likely the intuitive response of the German leadership would be to double down on securing stability/continuity (i.e. Grand coalitions) and European integration with France and the EU, so maybe the treaty of Lisbon comes a decade earlier.
Across Europe, the economic downturn, possibly combined an accelerated European integration would likely lead to the rise of populist anti-establishment parties like in the '10 already in the 1990', but likely this will not only be a mix of simple positioning ala Macron or 5 star movement, post-communism ala Podemos or German Greens or nationalism like AfD or Front national. The hard left would probably take a beating in the first elections, but would likely spring back as post-communistic parties (by this, I mean parties that essentially have a political platform calling for all the typical socialistic items, but keenly avoids ever calling itself socialist in any way).
On the global scene, you would likely have a Europe and a Soviet Union looking a lot more inward, meaning simultaneously a bit more local chaos and more Pax Americana.
The talk about whether Germany will get a "Nazi"-government some decades after a WW3-conflict is probably confused by the fact that different people apply the Nazi-label to different things. To clarify my understanding, to me a Nazi-government would be
- anti-democratic (wanting to abolish elections, Führerprinzip and what not)
- anti-free market (forced cartels of national industries, four years plans etc)
- militaristic (arms build-up etc)
- revanchistic/imperialistic (wanting to claim or re-claim territory of neighboring countries)
- nationalistic (beginning at expelling and going up to the extreme point of committing mass murder on non-natives)
While I could easily see a post-war Germany being a lot less pacifistic and even somewhat vengeful against Soviet Russia, I can hardly see any major reasons for Germany to abandon democracy, the current free market structure or being less foreigner-friendly - in this scenario, the Bundesrepublik survives because of the commitment of its NATO allies, and victory - even a bitter one - would be seen as a validation of the current system. That there following a WW3 would be a demand for an Anschluss with Austria or reclaiming Suedetenland just seems without any basis in reality and more like the Soviet revival scene from the Simpsons (as seen here:
Still, this is a war-torn and poorer country, but likely the intuitive response of the German leadership would be to double down on securing stability/continuity (i.e. Grand coalitions) and European integration with France and the EU, so maybe the treaty of Lisbon comes a decade earlier.
Across Europe, the economic downturn, possibly combined an accelerated European integration would likely lead to the rise of populist anti-establishment parties like in the '10 already in the 1990', but likely this will not only be a mix of simple positioning ala Macron or 5 star movement, post-communism ala Podemos or German Greens or nationalism like AfD or Front national. The hard left would probably take a beating in the first elections, but would likely spring back as post-communistic parties (by this, I mean parties that essentially have a political platform calling for all the typical socialistic items, but keenly avoids ever calling itself socialist in any way).
On the global scene, you would likely have a Europe and a Soviet Union looking a lot more inward, meaning simultaneously a bit more local chaos and more Pax Americana.
It's been a long time since I read Red Storm Rising; it and Hunt For Red October are the only Tom Clancy books that I haven't got rid of.
I can see a few possible repercussions:
1. I think that a German nuclear deterrent is not out of the question, be it official or like Israel's. It's unlikely that anyone will provide a nuclear power with an existential threat.
2. It's possible that, in a few years, a LIMITED disarmament treaty will be proposed, since the arms race to come will be ruinous.
3. China is in an excellent position: undamaged by war. However, they bear the taint of Communism, so the China of OTL is likely to be viewed with more suspicion.
4. The American mainland is, once again, untouched by the latest world war.
5. Currently, the US Navy is stronger, relatively, to the Soviet navy than it's been in a long time. Will it stay that way?
6. Space war--now a proven field of operation. A female fighter pilot is an ace, and the first Space Ace...3 (I think) RORSATs and a pair of Backfire bombers painted on her plane. This will also help wear down the "no woman in combat" idea a bit faster.
7. The war was short--will anyone plan for a long war after this?
I can see a few possible repercussions:
1. I think that a German nuclear deterrent is not out of the question, be it official or like Israel's. It's unlikely that anyone will provide a nuclear power with an existential threat.
2. It's possible that, in a few years, a LIMITED disarmament treaty will be proposed, since the arms race to come will be ruinous.
3. China is in an excellent position: undamaged by war. However, they bear the taint of Communism, so the China of OTL is likely to be viewed with more suspicion.
4. The American mainland is, once again, untouched by the latest world war.
5. Currently, the US Navy is stronger, relatively, to the Soviet navy than it's been in a long time. Will it stay that way?
6. Space war--now a proven field of operation. A female fighter pilot is an ace, and the first Space Ace...3 (I think) RORSATs and a pair of Backfire bombers painted on her plane. This will also help wear down the "no woman in combat" idea a bit faster.
7. The war was short--will anyone plan for a long war after this?
This will definitly come up. we must remember the german relationship to nukes was a bit schizophren. On one side:"Oh no, the nukes will kill us all!"; on the other side:"oh no, the Americans won´t use their nukes to defend us!"
So there will be at least some people, who will say, that this whole mess wouldn´t have happend if Germany had their own nukes.
The Middle East could get--interesting. I definitely can't see Sadam invading Kuwait any time soon. Sure, the USA lost a lot of equipment, but it still HAS a lot elsewhere. There's also no one really to play off against the USA.
If Sadam did invade, I think Desert Storm wouldn't stop until Bagdad fell; the USA is going to want the problem SOLVED.
In the USSR, I suspect that any steam locomotives that are in storage will get pulled out of storage--coal is more abundant than oil. One BIG priority would be the rebuilding of the refinery that started it all, almost no matter the cost. Also coal to oil plants might be on the agenda.
Any nuclear plants in the works will be rushed to completion--hopefully without too many corners cut.
As for the Soviet post-war military position, don't forget that all the A divisions, with their air and everything, that were poised to seize oil fields and refineries, can be redeployed to Europe. They can be used to keep Warsaw Pact nations under control, or to glare at NATO across the border.
With its conventional forces reduced, I would almost expect an increased dependence on the nuclear deterrent. Both sides still have a significant conventional army.
South Korea might be pressured to take more responsibility for its own defense so that forces can be deployed to Europe.
I don't recall any mention of French forces fighting on land in Europe, so the French army is mostly intact. France has one carrier left, the Clemenceau; Fochs was sunk. IIRC, French port facilities took a beating, though.
Was there any mention of Italy's role in the war?
Longer term, the idea of avoiding single points of failure for an entire NATION's economy might get looked at...
If Sadam did invade, I think Desert Storm wouldn't stop until Bagdad fell; the USA is going to want the problem SOLVED.
In the USSR, I suspect that any steam locomotives that are in storage will get pulled out of storage--coal is more abundant than oil. One BIG priority would be the rebuilding of the refinery that started it all, almost no matter the cost. Also coal to oil plants might be on the agenda.
Any nuclear plants in the works will be rushed to completion--hopefully without too many corners cut.
As for the Soviet post-war military position, don't forget that all the A divisions, with their air and everything, that were poised to seize oil fields and refineries, can be redeployed to Europe. They can be used to keep Warsaw Pact nations under control, or to glare at NATO across the border.
With its conventional forces reduced, I would almost expect an increased dependence on the nuclear deterrent. Both sides still have a significant conventional army.
South Korea might be pressured to take more responsibility for its own defense so that forces can be deployed to Europe.
I don't recall any mention of French forces fighting on land in Europe, so the French army is mostly intact. France has one carrier left, the Clemenceau; Fochs was sunk. IIRC, French port facilities took a beating, though.
Was there any mention of Italy's role in the war?
Longer term, the idea of avoiding single points of failure for an entire NATION's economy might get looked at...
I half wonder if the west/USA wouldn't help them, thinking it would be better to have the Russian population fed and warm instead of cold and hungry... and angry.
If they can find the fuel to move them...
There is a shortage of shipping after the war, though I don't know how badly the supertankers were hit, if at all.
When all the reasons for the war come out, and it turns out that only the blood shed by NATO prevented Arabian oil fields from being seized, there will be fallout. Much less tolerance for terrorism and states that support it--and less in the way of balance of power concerns to deter solving terrorist problems permanently.
The anti-Islamic extremists will have an easier time, too. "Islamic terrorism started World War III. Don't let it start World War IV!" I'm not saying anything about its rationality, just about what I think people will say.
(Just keep the later Tom Clancy from writing it!!!)
That, of course, can be spun both ways. Interesting dilemma for those who dislike both groups.Islanic terrorists? Obvious you mean anti-communist freedom fighters!