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Suppose Infante Juan, Prince of Asturias survived to have children of his own, meaning the Hapsburgs never take Spain. How does this effect the rest of Europe?
The main lines of Trastamaras and Avis will be likely extinct quickly for their level of inbreeding...Suppose Infante Juan, Prince of Asturias survived to have children of his own, meaning the Hapsburgs never take Spain. How does this effect the rest of Europe?
England is not good enough (plus said princess will be a daughter of Catalina so another first cousin)...
Here a wedding between Eleanor and Henry VIII will be out of question (as would be a totally different alliance from the one with Spain and here Catalina will keep her value intact)... Mary Tudor sr is not an interesting match for the heir of Spain, not when the alternatives are Navarre, Portugal or Burgundy...The English could offer Mary Tudor (she'd only be two years older than a boy born in 1497). It mucks out the gene pool some. Hell, they were willing to offer her for Karl V who was four years younger and then Louis XII who was more than thirty years older. Two years is a sinch. It might need for Catalina to wed elsewhere though when she's widowed (assuming all things Tudor still go as OTL) - with Eleonore of Austria wedding Henry, Mary wedding the Prince of the Asturias and Catalina marrying somebody else.
Here a wedding between Eleanor and Henry VIII will be out of question (as would be a totally different alliance from the one with Spain and here Catalina will keep her value intact)... Mary Tudor sr is not an interesting match for the heir of Spain, not when the alternatives are Navarre, Portugal or Burgundy...
Suppose Infante Juan, Prince of Asturias survived to have children of his own, meaning the Hapsburgs never take Spain. How does this effect the rest of Europe?
I don't agree. But I DO understand your argument. Catalina's value will still fall the minute her mom dies (she's the sister to a sovereign, who has more age appropriate daughters for Henry to wed should London so choose).
Mary Tudor I simply proposed as a "less inbred" alternative to the others. Eleonore is probably the most likely (and least inbred) alternative - since the d'Albrets are likewise going to be less favourable than their Foix cousins if Charles VIII still dies as OTL. Plus, a Navarrese infanta is the financially poorest of the three options (Burgundy, Portugal and Navarre). Although a Navarrese betrothal might be brokered in Fernando's lifetime, I don't really see it happening, since it likely goes bye-bye the first time Aragon goes to war with France between 1497 (Juan's survival) and the marriage taking place.
Isabella of Portugal (if she's still the same person as OTL) refused to marry anyone BESIDES Karl V (and its hardly as though a Portuguese-Burgundian match was anything new). Plus Eleonore would have a few years on Isabella.
Conflict, not so much? Sure Spain will not fight for a Habsburg Milan, but a restored Sforza Milan would be preferred by Spain over a French or Habsburg Milan. You're also forgetting, that the former Burgundian Netherlands were actually a place, where OTL Charles V still got plenty revenues from. 'Burgundy' with Flanders, Brabant and Holland was still one of the wealthiest places in Europe; and though often reluctant to pay for ducal ambitions, they will be very willing to pay up to counter French aggression.Conflicts of interests:
France: wants Naples and and, starting with Louis XII, Milan; plus there is an ongoing issue of the Burgundian Inheritance with the Hapsburgs.
Spain: Aragon also has a claim to Naples.
Hapsburgs: settling of the Burgundian Inheritance and Max is married to Sforza.
So the conflicts are the same and the main difference is that if conflict over Naples is settled (even if it is lost), then France can put Spain out of the picture because there is no reason for whoever is ruling Spain to fight for the Hapsburg's interests. I practical terms it means that the imperial component of the OTL conflict is severely handicapped by an absence of the Spanish money (even prior to conquest of Mexico) and, most important, troops. Max and his successor(s) can't finance a prolonged war with France and don't have enough of high quality troops in the HRE: in OTL it took combination of Spanish and German troops (and money) to achieve a victory in a series of wars lasting almost 4 decades; without Spain HRE is bankrupt and out of troops much earlier and France has a good chance to retain Milan and perhaps get some pieces of the Burgundian Inheritance as well (even in OTL it got Metz, Toul, and Verdun).
Spain is not bankrupt (or at least not as bankrupt as in OTL) and may concentrate on fighting Muslims in the Norther Africa: it would have resources to retain conquests there.
Hapsburgs end up with the Netherlands trimmed of some of the French-speaking parts (Artois, etc.). Absence of the Spanish backup most probably forces a more tolerant policy in the Netherlands so there may be no rebellion and a resulting 80YW. But with the Netherlands in their possession Hapsburgs became a serious naval factor both in trade and colonial activities which almost inevitably leads to a conflict with the existing maritime powers, Spain and Portugal, and later with England as well.
Questions:
Would the "seagoing" Hapsburgs get into a conflict with Spain and Portugal over the colonial possessions?
Or later, when England rises as a maritime power, would the Netherlands backed by the Hapsburg resources be in a better position than in OTL both against the English and against British-French alliance?
What France is going to do with Milan and Genoa in a long run?
Isabella of Portugal (if she's still the same person as OTL) refused to marry anyone BESIDES Karl V (and its hardly as though a Portuguese-Burgundian match was anything new). Plus Eleonore would have a few years on Isabella.
Perhaps not a sforza restoration, but the spaniards could support another claimant? I recall that wittelsbach-landshut had some visconti blood, and the house of wittelsbach is a fairly viable option to counter habsburg strength. Could be worth supporting!Conflict, not so much? Sure Spain will not fight for a Habsburg Milan, but a restored Sforza Milan would be preferred by Spain over a French or Habsburg Milan. You're also forgetting, that the former Burgundian Netherlands were actually a place, where OTL Charles V still got plenty revenues from. 'Burgundy' with Flanders, Brabant and Holland was still one of the wealthiest places in Europe; and though often reluctant to pay for ducal ambitions, they will be very willing to pay up to counter French aggression.
IMHO ITTL the Habsburgs would just back an ATL VOC and other trading companies, however with full HRE as a resource, settler colonies become a lot more viable. There will be times Austria-Burgundy will join France and England and seize Spanish or Portuguese colonies or claims, though once an established colonial power, they may want to compensated with a few of them as an ally of Spain and/or Portugal. Though even before that, if a privately owned Company, happens to further the glory of the empire and dynasty, well then they won't object loudly.
As for the trimmed Francophone parts, IMHO Franche Comté would be first to go, whereas Artois, like Hainaut, Namur and Luxembourg were seen as a part of the XVII Netherlands. The loss of Franche Comté may frustrate the monarch, well the wealthy Estates General of the Netherlands will OTOH pay for the defence of Artois.
The Bavarians could also claim the Margraviate of Verona from Venice.Perhaps not a sforza restoration, but the spaniards could support another claimant? I recall that wittelsbach-landshut had some visconti blood, and the house of wittelsbach is a fairly viable option to counter habsburg strength. Could be worth supporting!
Perhaps not a sforza restoration, but the spaniards could support another claimant? I recall that wittelsbach-landshut had some visconti blood, and the house of wittelsbach is a fairly viable option to counter habsburg strength. Could be worth supporting!
Perhaps not a sforza restoration, but the spaniards could support another claimant? I recall that wittelsbach-landshut had some visconti blood, and the house of wittelsbach is a fairly viable option to counter habsburg strength. Could be worth supporting!
The Habsburgs like the Trastamaras are likely in an alliance with a number of Italian states, including the Papacy. A restoration of the Status Quo ante Bellum seems more likely, than to come up with a whole new claimant, since that will probably have the broadest support. Neither the Trastamaras nor the Habsburgs want France in Milan, but to drive them out, they will more or less have to stay allied. Both are in weaker state, there, than OTL, because of ITTL there's a lot less synergy.
Another resource, which the Dutch OTL lacked was having enough people for settler colonies, this could be solved by staying a part of the HRE. In that sense, it could profit from the HRE.
That's not entirely certain, but I already voiced that a Sforza restoration would be the most likely outcome ITTL. No French Milan, which directly can threaten the Habsburg Austrian Hereditary Lands, but no Habsburg duchy of Milan either (that ITTL is only viable if the Habsburgs manage to crush the French and negotiate Milan as a compensation for the French seizing the duchy of Burgundy).The problem is that Trastamaras do not want Hapsburgs in Milan either so it is a prudent policy for Trastamaras not to stick their neck out for the sake of the Hapsburgs. They can, just as the Italian states did, shift their support from one party to another based upon the immediate interests (either to contain somebody's success or to side with a winning side).
(...)
It is not unlikely as in "not completely impossible" but you should keep in mind that people of that time tended to think locally and for the Dutch all other entities within Hapsburg's possessions, not to mention the HRE in general are foreigners. As far as the trade is involved, they are either irrelevant or the competitors infringing upon the Dutch profits and the same goes for settling the colonies.
An emperor can write whatever colonial charter he wants but due to the fact that the Dutch are pretty much the only ones having a merchant fleet and doing overseas trade this charter is pretty much a worthless piece of paper (or parchment).
The only meaningful action in that situation is construction of the imperial navy but the only person who figured this out was Wallenstein (which was well after our PoD) and he faced a fierce resistance from the Hanseatic cities. Then, again, who would finance such an enterprise? Hardly the Dutch until they got in war with England (which is, again, faraway). Why would the HRE states contribute if they don't have a vested interest? Why would Bohemian Estates agree to pay for it if they are far away from any sea (except in Shakespearean geography with which they are not familiar)?
English colonies weren't all settled by English. Many in the Dutch Cape Colony actually are descended from French Huguenots. Settlers form all across the HRE could move to 'Dutch' Imperial (Habsburg) colonies and gradually end up being assimilated into the already established 'Dutch' colony. ITTL I expect, that Spanish/British style colonialism would be a much more viable option than IOTL. The main focus will still be trade bases and colonies producing profitable crops etc., but unlike OTL there are enough people available for settler colonies too, so I expect a change there.Why would the Dutch enjoy a perspective of having their colony settled by, say Czechs? Even if the Dutch are handling all transportation (and charging for it) some of the profits still goes in a ...er... "wrong way". Or why do you expect them to stick to the Spanish/British style of a colonialism instead of sticking to the trade bases and relatively small settlements in the areas of expected profit?
The only meaningful change is to have the whole thing into Hapsburg enterprise (not HRE) before extensive Dutch maritime trade really started but this is hard to accomplish because the Dutch are the only ones who among the Hapsburg subjects who is doing it or has an access to the Atlantic coast. There would be a need in a big Hapsburg (and other non-Dutch) investment when the company is created and it is much better if there is more than one company. Overseas conquests should happen in the name of the Hapsburgs, etc. Then you can expand the base of an enterprise making it less Dutch. Still, it should be strictly Hapsburg. Personally, I don't think that the schema could be realistically implemented even if just because of the prevailing contemporary mentalities.
Colonial competition is still a matter of future. In OTL the Dutch extended their trade routes beyond the Northern Europe into the Mediterranean markets and Levant only in 1580s and to Brazil and Dutch Gold Coast of Africa in 1590s. The 1st ships of Compagnie van Verre sailed to the spice islands of Maluku in 1596-97, VOC was founded only in 1602 and WIC in 1621.
I don't agree. But I DO understand your argument. Catalina's value will still fall the minute her mom dies (she's the sister to a sovereign, who has more age appropriate daughters for Henry to wed should London so choose).
Mary Tudor I simply proposed as a "less inbred" alternative to the others. Eleonore is probably the most likely (and least inbred) alternative - since the d'Albrets are likewise going to be less favourable than their Foix cousins if Charles VIII still dies as OTL. Plus, a Navarrese infanta is the financially poorest of the three options (Burgundy, Portugal and Navarre). Although a Navarrese betrothal might be brokered in Fernando's lifetime, I don't really see it happening, since it likely goes bye-bye the first time Aragon goes to war with France between 1497 (Juan's survival) and the marriage taking place.
Isabella of Portugal (if she's still the same person as OTL) refused to marry anyone BESIDES Karl V (and its hardly as though a Portuguese-Burgundian match was anything new). Plus Eleonore would have a few years on Isabella.
Isabella of Portugal was only a good option for OTL Charles V, because he was also king of the Crowns of Castille and Aragon. Without the Iberian inheritance, Habsburg Austria-Burgundy would prefer a match with Mary Tudor the Elder or of course and arguably more Anne of Bohemia & Hungary. Isabella of Portugal ITTL would be at best, the option, if all the preferred options fail.
My problem with Anne of Bohemia and Hungary is who OTL Karl refuted to marry her and pursued matches strictly in Burgundian interest (France and England) and I can not see things going differently ATL as a surviving Philip also will not let his father choosing the wife for his heir... So Anne will most likely still end marrying Maximilian jr (aka ATL Ferdinand who here will not be born in Spain and so will not be named and raised by his maternal grandfather) and not Karl.I'm afraid that Isabella wouldn't have a chance to marry Karl ITTL. If Habsburgs don't have Spanish inheritance to worry about, Karl is too valuable as a husband of Anne of Bohemia-Hungary, OTL wife of Ferdinand. ITTL Max can't wed a younger grandson to her. And the wedding is extremely (and will be even more ITTL) important to Max, because after childless Lajos II, Anne was the one to inherit Hungary and Bohemia.
This is simply wrong.It is not unlikely as in "not completely impossible" but you should keep in mind that people of that time tended to think locally and for the Dutch all other entities within Hapsburg's possessions, not to mention the HRE in general are foreigners. As far as the trade is involved, they are either irrelevant or the competitors infringing upon the Dutch profits and the same goes for settling the colonies.