Alternate Wikipedia Infoboxes V (Do Not Post Current Politics Here)

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From @Komodo and @Techdread's Time for Decision:

The Carnation Revolution is seen as the end of one era in Portuguese history and the beginning of another. Taking place on 25 April 1974 (Giving the event it’s other name – 25th of April), the revolution began as a military coup led by the Armed Forces Movement [MFA] against the longstanding authoritarian, nationalist Estado Novo government that had been in power since 1933. The coup was joined, unexpectedly by its organisers, by civilian campaigns across the country welcoming the end of the Estado Novo dictatorship towards the beginnings of democracy. The name derives from the fact that revolution itself was almost entirely peaceful with almost no shots being fired and the distribution of carnation flowers amongst the population and to the armed forces. The revolution itself was welcomed across all of Portugal, save for those few remaining Estado Novo loyalists.

The situation following 25th April 1975 was unstable though. The new governing body, the National Salvation Junta [JSN], was largely composed of moderate military officers and those more radically-minded junior officers who had managed the coup itself. Whilst General António de Spínola found himself at the head of the JSN, he was not part of the MFA forces that had organised any part of the Carnation Revolution itself. The directing force of the revolution was Major Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho, who was also the commanding officer of the MFA-composed elite force COPCON [Continental Operations Command] which now served as Portugal’s main force with the police force removed from the public sector in the wake of the revolution and the military still largely divided. Tensions would soon arise between the various political organisations and factions in the JSN.

As the new Portuguese President, Spínola found himself dealing with these problems directly and often facing him against the radically left-wing officers that made up the bulk of the MFA and COPCON. Uneasy with being forced into compromises and political decision he disagreed with, including consenting to independence for Portugal’s colonies against the federal model he advocated, Spínola attempted to direct full control in September 1974 only to be blocked from doing so by the MFA. Spínola’s resignation as president saw a further weakening of the political right within the government of Portugal at this time. Worried about the concern of a Marxist-Leninist takeover in Western Europe, many of the Western nations began to supply the anti-communist organisations within Portugal, including those within the JSN, with financial support. The NATO member-states, particularly concerned over the prospect of a Moscow-supporting government in Western Europe, sought to organise military exercises in early 1975 to shore up support for the non-communist forces within the Lisbon government, however the US’ continued involvement in Vietnam prevented a unified stance.

An attempted coup by Spínola in March 1975 saw the situation grow increasingly fraught as the JSN was replaced by the Revolutionary Council of Portugal, dominated by the MFA. The time between Spínola’s failed right-wing coup on 11 March 1975 and 25 September 1975 is referred to as the ‘Hot Summer of 1975’. The government held elections in April of that year to form a constituent assembly to decide upon Portugal’s new constitution. Whilst the moderate political parties were in favour of the elections and the move towards a civilian-led government, the more revolutionary left-wing and communist parties were opposed due to their expectations of poor electoral performances. An agreement was made that the policies of the incumbent government would be unaffected and unchanged by the outcome of the constituent elections. The elections themselves were viewed as a victory for the parties advocating a pluralistic democratic change, but the collectivisation of farm in the south of the country would continue. Hostility was met by farmers and land-owners in the north, despite being unaffected by the government’s policies and their previous support for the Carnation Revolution. Anti-communist and right-wing militias were soon organised with a series of anti-communist attacks taking place against the government.

The situation piqued in September when communist-allied armed units led a coup against the government. Increasingly weakened and facing financial constraints, the government was unable to rally support to counter the revolutionary units as they seized control across Lisbon. Otelo would announce in a radio address that the constituent elections held in April earlier that year were now to be dissolved with new elections, organised by the new government, would be held in the future when the situation had calmed down sufficiently to allow the democratic process to continue. Military personnel and units loyal to the previous government soon took leave of mainland Portugal as they fled for the Azores Islands, hoping for protection from the international community. Meanwhile, the civil insurrection that was taking place across the north of the country intensified as those units not loyal to the new COPCON government joined the militia in their anti-communist conflict. Whilst the Revolution of 25th of April may have been peaceful, the Revolution of 25th November looked set to be otherwise.

As Portugal faced international pressure and criticism over the 25 September coup, it also faced domestic issues at home. Guerrilla fighters in the north of the country, funded and armed by the Azores government and its anti-communist allies, were a real danger to the already fragile stability of President Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho’s revolutionary government. Whilst he was able to rely on support from the military across mainland Portugal, there were many who had deserted Lisbon’s rule in favour of the leadership in the Azores Islands. Most national governments continued to recognise the Portuguese government-in-exile as the legitimate government of the country, thereby adding further financial strain to Otelo’s rule; without the ability to draw on overseas funds, the government would soon be facing economic hardships and the circumstances of a counter-coup would become very real. By contrast, the situation for the internationally recognised government looked promising; the Azores government, led President António Soares Carneiro and Prime Minister Francisco de Sá Carneiro, were supported by their allies in NATO whilst not lacking for financial support despite their de facto territorial limits of a few islands in the Atlantic Ocean.

It seemed as though of the COPCON government would be recorded in history as a brief example of a failed left-wing government takeover. Rhetoric between Lisbon and Madrid, the latter dealing with its own attempts towards democracy in the wake of General Francisco Franco’s death in 1975, suggested the very real possibility of direct military conflict between the two European nations. The heated exchanges over early 1976 proved to be little more than fiery rhetoric between ideologically disparate nations, but the threat of open warfare was taken as a serious threat by many in NATO; if Spain were to engage Portugal in war, would they intervene? The revolutionary government wasn’t recognised by any of its membership, even if representatives did meet with various government officials from across western Europe, but would that preclude the alliance formed to contain Soviet influence from being involved in a conflict against a pro-Soviet government in the West? As the war of words continued, some of the NATO governments found themselves supporting Madrid over Lisbon, notably the Reagan administration as the US entered its election cycle, whilst others sought to find a more peaceful solution to the entire crisis in Portugal.

The European Community would find itself serving as the primary mediator in the 1975-1976 Portuguese-Spanish tensions; President of the European Commission Willy Brandt would visit Lisbon in late spring 1976 to directly appeal to Otelo. The move succeeded, though it also served as a cooling of relations between Brussels and the national Portuguese government. With the crisis stoking the flames of national identity and anti-fascism, Otelo announced that the long-awaited elections would take place in December 1976. The government had been formed of like-minded figures from the military and politicians from across the spectrum of Portugal’s left. Otelo sought to bring some of these together to forge his own party, drawing on parties supportive during the Carnation Revolution and his own 25 September movement. Owing to the monopolisation of power in the government & military, many left-wing politicians from the Socialist Party and other small parties united under the banner of Otelo’s Popular United Force [FUP]. Alongside the powerful Communist Party and other smaller left-wing groups, they would stand in the elected as the United People Alliance. The mainland opposition parties were actually those in power in the Azores; the centrist People’s Democratic Party [PPD] and centre-right to right-wing Democratic and Social Centre [CDS] campaigned together as the Democratic Alliance, whilst the Socialist Party remained outside government on both the Azores Islands and in mainland Portugal. The 1976 legislative elections were openly contested by the Azores government parties; whilst government-sanctioned polling showed a strong lead for the PUP, independent polling showed that although the government did have a slight lead over its rivals in the mainland Democratic Alliance, it was far closer than the government would admit.

In the wake of further attacks in northern Portugal on government facilities and PUP-supporting communities, the government announced that all polling stations would be placed under military protection to ensure “democracy is unhindered by counter-revolutionaries”. The announcement was followed by condemnation from the opposition parties and Azores government alike. Whilst it seemed that the DA could have succeeded in winning back power peacefully in mainland Portugal, the continued guerrilla conflicted had provided an excuse for Otelo and COPCON to secure their own victory through electoral manipulation. Much of the Azores government were not concerned by the COPCON move; it was regarded internationally for the tampering it was and little would change after the election than the situation had been beforehand – they would still hold the international finances and recognition as the legitimate Portuguese government. Hardliners were more worried though – to them, the longer they were away from Lisbon, the stronger the likelihood of losing their status were. It wasn’t long before they were in touch with remaining loyalists within the officer’s corps of the mainland military.

7 October 1976 saw a small group of mid-ranking officers loyal to the Azores government attempt a countercoup against the COPCON regime in Lisbon. Whilst one group would seek to capture Belém Palace, another would take Sintra Air Base to enable loyalist aircraft to land and secure aerial dominance of the city. The unit ordered to take the air base were detained at the gates, whilst those entering Belém Palace found it empty. Radio announcements that soldiers loyal to President Soares Carneiro now controlled Lisbon were not welcomed by the populace. It was a poorly executed operation with even worse planning; the officers had little popular support in Lisbon where much of the government’s programs and provided a welcome home for the likes of Otelo and his revolutionary officers. Within hours of the announcement, COPCON forces had retaken the presidential residence and arrested the Azores loyalist officers and soldiers.

It was a damning indictment of the opposition parties; the Lisbon government portrayed them as accepting they could not win at the ballot box and sought to overturn the wishes of the people. Although neither President Soares Carneiro nor Prime Minister Sá Carneiro were aware of the attempted countercoup until it happened, their own condemnation of the operation received little praise from the general populace. Even against the backdrop of COPCON military units providing protection and overseeing the election, even independent polling didn’t suggest the election would be close anymore. The United People Alliance would take a strong plurality of the vote and a majority in the Assembly, whilst the Democratic Alliance was humbled at securing little more than a quarter of the votes. In the presidential election, Otelo was able to secure his own election against the DA. The wind was soon blowing the other way for the likes of President Soares Carneiro and Prime Minister Sá Carneiro as national governments were moving their recognition to Lisbon. Within months, they would resign their posts, fleeing the islands as Lisbon-backed forces retook the islands that had long belonged to Portugal. The balance had shifted to the left in Europe, but neighbouring events would soon address that.​

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1974-1977 were the years of change across the Iberian Peninsula. The Carnation Revolution of 1974 in Portugal, followed by the 25 September coup, would see the toppling of the right-wing dictatorship of Estado Novo and the subsequent establishment of a left-wing regime in its place. These events were watched by the world with great concern; western governments, initially supportive of the end to the nationalist regime, soon became hostile as the revolutionary forces took control of Lisbon and the country at-large, whilst the Eastern Bloc and other communist nations revelled in the success of a revolutionary left-wing movement taking power in the midst of Western Europe. No nation was watching these revolutions and coups more closely than Portugal’s neighbour. Since the 1930s, Spain had been ruled by an equally nationalist and right-wing regime as Portugal’s Estado Novo. Unlike Portugal though, Spain’s government had been built around the figure of one man; General Francisco Franco. After helping to launch a failed coup against the Spanish Republic in 1936, nationalist victory in 1939 enabled Franco to rebuild the country into his own image. Purging the left and any political opposition to his rule, the would-be ally to the Nazis and Axis Powers found itself courted by the United States in the early Cold War. The last vestige of the interwar dictatorship had now become a bastion of anti-communism as Portugal fell to revolution.

To opposition figures in Spain and reform-minded government officials, the Carnation Revolution was a sign that the continued one-party hold over Spain could not endure in perpetuity. Even then, the idea of reforming the Spanish Constitution to allow open and free elections was dismissed by Franco, despite his own ailing health and increased dependence on his subordinates. He was convinced that his chosen successor, Prince Juan Carlos, would continue the lessons he had taught him to see his style of rule not end with his own demise. Prospects of reform were still frequently whispered in the halls of the Cortes until 25 September 1975. The revolutionary leftist military coup in Lisbon that deposed the government created a fear of the revolution spreading beyond just Portugal. The major opposition party in Spain at the time as the Spanish Communist Party [PCE] which welcomed Major Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho’s ascension to the Portuguese presidency. Leftist revolution and threats from within the military then became the new watchwords in the Cortes.

Franco’s death two months later saw Prince Juan Carlos ascend as King Juan Carlos I to the throne which had been vacant since 1931. The new king soon set himself out as someone more inclined to reforming the state he had inherited than preserving the legacy of his immediate predecessor. However, Juan Carlos would need to walk a fine line; the idea of easily transitioning to a liberal democracy had been tried and failed in Portugal and the king was aware that he had few friends within the PCE if they sought to replicate Otelo’s revolution in Spain. In late spring 1976, Juan Carlos dismissed Carlos Arias Navarro as prime minister, ending the link between the King and Franco. Seeking to appease his own wishes to democratise the country whilst also soothing conservative elements within the government & military though, he would appoint Manuel Fraga as his new prime minister. With a reputation as a ruthless Minister of the Interior, Fraga’s appointment was welcomed by the hardliners. Fraga was not, however, a Franco hardliner as Arias Navarro proved to be; aware of the need for political change, Fraga was amongst those in favour of “reform in the [Francoist] continuity”.

Fraga’s efforts to reform Spain would need to pass through the Francoist-controlled Cortes, in particular he would need to gain the support of the hardliners who had grouped themselves into a faction known as the Búnker. This faction was strongly opposed to any changes from the current system of government, so found itself with an ally in former prime minister Arias Navarro whom Fraga had served under. Between the two of them, an accord was struck that seemed acceptable to the Cortes; free elections were to be held the following year, however the PCE would remain banned from participating. This was a key issue for many, especially those Francoist elements in the Spanish Army which still wielded considerable influence in government. It was not well accepted by the opposition parties outside of the Cortes. The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party [PSOE] secretary general Felipe González had formed an unofficial channel of communication with Fraga and expressed his own disagreement with the PCE’s absence from political proceedings. However, faced with the reality of participating in free elections along with government support for those PSOE associated trade unions over PCE-controlled rivals, González relented and tacitly accepted. Unsurprisingly, the PCE was hostile to Fraga’s proposed reforms. They decried the Law for Political Reform as anti-democratic, arguing for a provisional government made-up of all parties, primarily opposition parties, to take office to shape the new constitution. With their rhetoric continuing enflame the situation, González soon began distancing himself further from the PCE and its leadership.

The PSOE was soon accused of being a false opposition and one controlled by the government, bought off through weak deals. The left-wing of the PSOE were wary of these deals and began looking to other political organisations as its support filtered away. The main beneficiaries to this disenchantment with the PSOE’s leadership were those parties that formed from PSOE splinter movements or rejected the PSOE’s hegemony of the socialist movement in Spain. These included: the Democratic Socialist Alliance [ASDCI], the People’s Socialist Party [PSP], and Socialist Unity [US]. González was also keen to provide a keen alternative to the government as well without becoming associated or appearing as a pro-Otelo figure for Spain, even if support for the 25 September coup in Lisbon remain popular within certain circles. Fractures also began to emerge within the government. Fraga’s reforms had not been welcomed by all within the party, resulting in various Falangist splinter parties forming, however some viewed his reforms as not extensive enough. The Union of the Democratic Centre [UCD] was formed through various Christian democratic, liberal, and social democratic organisations agreeing to stand under a united banner. This included a number of reformist Francoists who, thanks to their government experience, were able to hold many of the leadership positions in the UCD such as its leader Landelino Lavilla.

There was little in the way of election campaigning for the first directly elected Cortes. The government, now under the banner of the People’s Alliance (AP), retained much of the central control it had inherited from the Francoist system. The government was easily able to capitalise on the anti-communist press that had taken hold across much of Spain following the victory of the left-wing United People Alliance [APU] in Portugal at the end of 1976, whilst also seeking to daub the PSOE and other left-wing parties as being infiltrated by pro-APU activists and revolutionaries. Apathy from many citizens seeking an open democracy would see a lower turnout than otherwise expected across the country; to most, it was a case of ‘Francoism with a human face’. The results were a victory for the AP; it had taken the plurality of the votes though remained short of a majority by 18 seats. Likewise, the UCD also performed better than expected as it became the second-largest party in the Congress. The PSOE had been badly hurt by its own internal disputes, achieving the third-largest contingent of deputies and only narrowly ahead of its two main left-wing rivals. Fraga, supported by the UCD in the Congress, would continue as the first elected prime minister in over forty years.​

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1984 pres election 2.jpg

James E. Webb would once again run for the Democratic nomination, but this time, he actually wins!
The former vice president Haig would be chosen as the Republican pick.

Webb would choose a relative of Nelson Rockefeller (the Republican vice president from 1965-1973 and the Republican pick in 1972): Jay Rockefeller

Haig would choose the Former Chief of Staff under the Reagan Administration: George H.W. Bush!

Both would lead hard campaigns, but Haig was seen as too bland with voters
So Webb would win

My other posts from the Dewey-verse:
1956 presidential election, 1960 presidential election, and an assassination attempt
1964 presidential election
1972 presidential election
1976 presidential election
 
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While it's an interesting take on the Carnation Revolution, :) as a Portuguese, I must point out the following:
President Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho
Otelo (as he is commonly know in Portugal) is too far left (to the left of the communists) to be accepted by a mostly centre-left MFA. And he was extremely hated by most of the population as an extremist. Even the Communist Party did not like him.
many left-wing politicians from the Socialist Party and other small parties united under the banner of Otelo’s Popular United Force [FUP].
The Socialist Party has always been extremely anti-communist, and mobilized strongly (with a lot of popular support) against the far-left during the hot summer. Many of the founders of the socialist party had either been communist during their youths or worked with communists in exile or clandestinity and were very aware of the nature of far-left ideologies, and so didn't want those applied here.
centrist People’s Democratic Party [PPD] and centre-right to right-wing Democratic and Social Centre [CDS]
The PPD (former name of PSD) was originally a vaguely social democratic party, with some centre-right people, and the CDS was a centrist party with some centre-right people.

radio announcements that soldiers loyal to President Soares Carneiro now controlled Lisbon were not welcomed by the populace. It was a poorly executed operation with even worse planning; the officers had little popular support in Lisbon where much of the government’s programs and provided a welcome home for the likes of Otelo and his revolutionary officers.
Lisbon was not friendly to Otelo nor to the communists and would have supported such operation. Likewise, most members of the Portuguese Armed forces came from anti-communist families and would have supported it or at the very least refuse to fight.

It's always important to remember that there was never sociological support for a far-left regime.
The far-left support was based around people coming from areas without a tradition of private property (parts of the south, which by definition excludes the city of Lisbon) and a few intellectuals.
While they were very vocal and outside Portugal it might look as if they had popular support, it was not the case.
 
While it's an interesting take on the Carnation Revolution, :) as a Portuguese, I must point out the following:
Thank you very much for your constructive notes - I will admit that I don’t believe my attempt at creating is rooted too strongly in what could have happened in the development of the Carnation Revolution and the attempted 25 September coup but more a fear of what it could lead to. Likewise for Spain, it’s more a thought experiment to create a Venezuela-Colombia type relationship between the two countries in the wake of a Carnation Revolution that went too far rather than anything too real.
 
...Max is Australian, how could he be Ash's running mate?
I just thought they fit well and lets just say the 61st amendment from Demolition Man was passed allowing non natural born citizens to run.

Do you think the country's a bit confused as to why Rambo and Balboa look alike?
Very but after aliens, cyborgs, demons, and the fall of the Soviet Union due to a boxing match I think ttl's inhabitants have learned to go with it.

Also Alex Murphy makes little sense as a Republican running mate in the context of his universe.
Good point, I think I originally had him slated as Dem Running mate but I had a mix up when I actually made the wikibox
 
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