AHC: No German Unification

Morning all.

With a POD no earlier than the end of the War of the Second Coalition in 1802, set it up so that Germany is still divided in 2019. For purposes of this challenge Germany can't have unified at all. Having a united Germany permanently broken up later (a la the end of "Anglo-American Nazi War") does not count. Germany can never have formed in the first place.

You can have as many or as few minor entities as you'd like, but instead of one nation of Germany there should be at least a few nations where OTL Germany is now.
 
Nappy III refuses to play along with Bismarck's game wrt the Ems telegram, no Franco-Prussian War, Baden, Wurttemburg, and Bavaria remain out of the NGC, NGC member states eventually agree to be annexed into the Kingdom of Prussia, which reforms itself as a federal state.
 
Nappy III refuses to play along with Bismarck's game wrt the Ems telegram, no Franco-Prussian War, Baden, Wurttemburg, and Bavaria remain out of the NGC, NGC member states eventually agree to be annexed into the Kingdom of Prussia, which reforms itself as a federal state.

I'm skeptical this would be enough. Baden was already nipping at the bit to get closer to the Confederation,and Prussia's sheer economic and political dominance by that point means they are virtually guranteed to pull the rest of the minor states into their orbit as long as Austria is excluded from influencing the region.

With a POD no earlier than the end of the War of the Second Coalition in 1802, set it up so that Germany is still divided in 2019. For purposes of this challenge Germany can't have unified at all. Having a united Germany permanently broken up later (a la the end of "Anglo-American Nazi War") does not count. Germany can never have formed in the first place.

The latest POD I see as viable is the Austro-Prussian war, though more likely this just slows the process if Prussia is allowed back into the Confederation post-war as long as the government stays stable given the economic tides and the widening gap between the two German superpowers. A situation with better odds might be a internal-looking Prussia as a result of the Landtag taking a hard line in their budgetary debate with King Willhelm in 62. Have the Monarchy usurp the power of the budget not by recalling Bismark and playing a game of chicken by just collecting the previous year's budget but instead dissolving the Landtag in a Napoleon III style self-coup, and they'll be too focused policing itself to risk moving into Slesvig-Holstein in 64, and you could start weakening the German Pan-Nationalists' connection to the Prussian government and thus leaving them without viable political patronage to break the power of the regional elite. It's not guranteed, but in theory the movement could sputter out.
 
1809/1810 Austria wins at Wagram and Prussia joins the coalition. Russia is bought off with Poland, Finland, Bessarabia. In the wake of confusion France agrees to Peace.

Germany is split into four spheres of influence. NE: Prussian. SE: Austrian SW: French NW: Hanoverian

There is no Austro-Prussian rivalry over controlling the whole of Germany. Rather they are happy consolidating power in their respective spheres. The four spheres develop distinct identities and never unify.
 
The POD: The Bavarian king inherit Baden, he was the rightful heir. Maybe Charles of Baden dies earlier and it’s agreed at the Vienna Congress that Baden will unite with Bavaria, if Louis of Baden fails to produce heirs. Next change are that Ludwig II of Bavaria is a competent rule. This results in Bavaria and Württemberg unite in a South German Confederation which doesn’t unite with the North German Confederation.
 
I'm skeptical this would be enough. Baden was already nipping at the bit to get closer to the Confederation,and Prussia's sheer economic and political dominance by that point means they are virtually guranteed to pull the rest of the minor states into their orbit as long as Austria is excluded from influencing the region.



The latest POD I see as viable is the Austro-Prussian war, though more likely this just slows the process if Prussia is allowed back into the Confederation post-war as long as the government stays stable given the economic tides and the widening gap between the two German superpowers. A situation with better odds might be a internal-looking Prussia as a result of the Landtag taking a hard line in their budgetary debate with King Willhelm in 62. Have the Monarchy usurp the power of the budget not by recalling Bismark and playing a game of chicken by just collecting the previous year's budget but instead dissolving the Landtag in a Napoleon III style self-coup, and they'll be too focused policing itself to risk moving into Slesvig-Holstein in 64, and you could start weakening the German Pan-Nationalists' connection to the Prussian government and thus leaving them without viable political patronage to break the power of the regional elite. It's not guranteed, but in theory the movement could sputter out.

Was this something Wilhelm considered doing? What about the option to abdicate? What would an early Frederick III have done?
 
Was this something Wilhelm considered doing? What about the option to abdicate? What would an early Frederick III have done?

Abdication is not an option to solve the problem; just the nessecity for Whilhelm to make the decision. Fredrick desperately didn't want his father to do so, as he thought it would critically undermine the crown's legitimacy if it could be forced to such drastic action by it's legislature who was, in principal,merely supposed to be an advisory body, and would be left spurned and at a critical moment if said abdication occurred. Given the choice between yeilding further (basically conceding to legislative supremacy) or invoking monarchial perogative to maintain the dignity and power of his position, Id wager he invokes the Seige Laws or some other loophole, since the situation has esclated to a matter of the power of the Monarchy itself
 
Abdication is not an option to solve the problem; just the nessecity for Whilhelm to make the decision. Fredrick desperately didn't want his father to do so, as he thought it would critically undermine the crown's legitimacy if it could be forced to such drastic action by it's legislature who was, in principal,merely supposed to be an advisory body, and would be left spurned and at a critical moment if said abdication occurred. Given the choice between yeilding further (basically conceding to legislative supremacy) or invoking monarchial perogative to maintain the dignity and power of his position, Id wager he invokes the Seige Laws or some other loophole, since the situation has esclated to a matter of the power of the Monarchy itself

What factors could tip the scales to Wilhelm deciding to abdicate against the prince's protests?
 
What factors could tip the scales to Wilhelm deciding to abdicate against the prince's protests?

To be honest? I think it was a bluff/time saving measure while they hunted for a suitable Minister candidate to act as a buffer between the Crown's reputation and the legal implications of ignoring the Landtag. Abdication would probably depend on him finding nobody he had faith in who would take the job... which I suppose is possible. Though likely it involves Roon keeling over from something
 
Prussia and Austria go to war, the various German states all take sides, the war drags on for years with lots of blood being spilled and by the end everybody involved hates each other too much to ever form a country together.
 
If in 1802, you told someone Austria wasn't German, they would think you were crazy.
Which is an interesting concept. In 1802 Austria was German in 2019 it no longer is. The same is true for Luxemburg and Lichtenstein (Switserland hadn't been German for centuries). If for example Bavaria or Hanover or whatever did not become part of Germany, they would not be considered German (both by others as well as by themselves) anymore in 2019.
 
Speaking the same language doesn't make them the same country.

Canada and the US for example.
Canada isn't part of the United States?! :eek: ;)

On a serious note: Austria is still German .. its just its own state. and with the advent of the EU it really doesn't matter anymore for most purposes.

best way to keep Germany a mess is no French revolution and no napoleon, let the HRE stumble along

however the last part would be a stronger Austria to oppose Prussia and split Germany across the center
 
Canada isn't part of the United States?! :eek: ;)

On a serious note: Austria is still German .. its just its own state. and with the advent of the EU it really doesn't matter anymore for most purposes.

best way to keep Germany a mess is no French revolution and no napoleon, let the HRE stumble along

however the last part would be a stronger Austria to oppose Prussia and split Germany across the center
You need to prevent the rise of Prussia first for keeping Germany as a very loose confederation...
 
You need to prevent the rise of Prussia first for keeping Germany as a very loose confederation...

Honestly wouldn't be hard to do . just have Poland do what it should have done and squash it early on instead of letting it do its thing and grow from a sore into the child devouring the parent creature it became
 
Speaking the same language doesn't make them the same country.

Canada and the US for example.

It does, if language is the most unifying element.

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- Peter H. Wilson, The Holy Roman Empire
 
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