Effects of Spain keeping Mexico on the expansion of USA

pinerana

Let's say that the peninsular war never happened, Spain wasn't destroyed economically, politically and it's millitary wasn't in ruins and it kept it's colonies in the new world.

How does this effect New Spain(Mexico) and US specifically?
Keep in mind that this means New Spain controls Texas, California and the rest of present day south-western USA.
Does the US still push to the Pacific trough Orego or do Spain or Britain manage to gobble it up instead?


A lot of people left Spain for Cuba, Brazil etc. do they instead go to New Spain? Can New Spain attract other European immigrants and populate it's northern territories?

US was willing to go to war with Mexico for this land, but would they be willing to fight a strong Spanish Empire?

If you want extra spice what if Napoleon never took Louisiana from Spain in 1803 and Spain kept control of Louisiana territory as well? Or what if he took it but never sold it. Feel free to explore any of these 3 scenarios.

Please don't get bogged down in why the peninsular war didn't happen and instead focus on the topic.
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
The US correctly saw that they could beat Mexico OTL. ATL, New Spain with an intact Spain is a whole other story. The US is not going to war just for gaining land unless they know they can win.

Louisiana is an interesting story. OTL, Spain backed down on Mississippi navigation rights and Florida border disputes because the US had the backing of Britain after 1795. If Spain keeps Louisiana, you might see Britain/US jointly take it by force. At Congress of Vienna, Britain was big on returning things to pre war status...unless it benefitted Britain. Britain may decide to leave the territory to the US since they're cozying up after the war of 1812, and it would take force to get the US to leave. The US is probably forced to pay Spain something for it, or part of it (Texas might get a lot bigger).

An alternative scenario on Louisiana is that Spain flips allegiance and joins Britain in opposing France BEFORE Britain/US take New Orleans. In this case, the US has to go it alone, and they lose if they try. They probably don't try if they don't have Britain's backing.

It is easy to envision New Spain dominating west of the Mississippi. It is also easy to envision Spanish incompetence (competence was in short supply in that timeframe, especially on the crown) blowing the opportunity. But IF Spain can hold on for just a little longer, Louisiana was exploding into being a happening place (which is one reason the US wanted to get control of it before that happened) and it would be a lot harder for US to take it by force. the crown had relaxed immigration restrictions in Louisiana (Daniel Boone was an agent for the crown to bring settlers into Arkansas/Missouri), and prior to the sale, the newcomers were content being Spanish. You'd probably see relaxed policies throughout the northern half of New Spain.

Britain is still going to push for a lower border in the northwest, and if Spain were the ones pushing back instead of the cozy trade partner US, Britain is likely to be more aggressive. I can easily see the boundary ending up a lot more south.
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
Have Carlos IV be more like Carlos III. Maybe a different bride for OTL Carlos IV (this butterflies Godoy and OTL Fernando ). Basically, this line of thinking says insert a competent crown (or two) at a very critical stage. It would be tough with Nap as your neighbor, but the OTL crowns set a low bar for being able to do better.

Maybe bestow the good sense upon the crowns to have them not all be taken prisoner by Nap and handing him the keys to the country.

It is easy to find PODs to leave Spain in far better shape than OTL.
 

Ricardolindo

Banned
pinerana said:
Most of it seems to be discussion about how unstable and incapable Spain would be of holding the territory after it's been destroyed by the peninsular war.

So I think the peninsular war being avoided is a pretty big divergent.
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I disagree with what most other users said, as long as the Riego Revolt didn't happen, failed or was reversed shortly afterwards, Spain could have kept Mexico, as Iturbide wouldn't defect. We should note, that, by 1821, Spain had largely defeated the Mexican insurgents, which had been reduced to guerrilas.
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
No matter how Spain keeps Mexico, there needs to be some sort of reform to smooth out the extremes of the conservative and liberal factions. It's a tough row to hoe, but you can't just declare victory and expect the pressure of the extreme opposites not to boil over and explode again at some point.
 

Deleted member 67076

You're positing several extra decades of the Bourbon reforms including continental free trade, increased immigration from Catholic Europe (French, Italian, and noticably Irish), the maintenance of the Spanish taxation system (so no more broke Mexico), keeping the Comanche paid and settlement up north going, Louisiana settled and maintained, and all extraction based exports continuing to provide economic growth alongside the small yet burgeoning manufacturing sectors of the Spanish Empire including not just Northeast Spain but Ecuador for example).

In short the US stays boxed in. In 1800 the population disparity was 5 million for the US, 25 million for the Spanish Empire. Expect that disparity to be maintained albiet lessened over time rather than shrinking to the reverse where by 1900 the US has outnumbered the entire continent twice over.
 

pinerana

Soverihn said:
You're positing several extra decades of the Bourbon reforms including continental free trade, increased immigration from Catholic Europe (French, Italian, and noticably Irish), the maintenance of the Spanish taxation system (so no more broke Mexico), keeping the Comanche paid and settlement up north going, Louisiana settled and maintained, and all extraction based exports continuing to provide economic growth alongside the small yet burgeoning manufacturing sectors of the Spanish Empire including not just Northeast Spain but Ecuador for example).

In short the US stays boxed in. In 1800 the population disparity was 5 million for the US, 25 million for the Spanish Empire. Expect that disparity to be maintained albiet lessened over time rather than shrinking to the reverse where by 1900 the US has outnumbered the entire continent twice over.
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Is it really realistic though that the US wouldn't be pushing for at least some Louisiana lands?
Or that the growing population wouldn't demand from the government to acquire more land for settlement?

How would no expansion effect the slavery debate in the US?
 

Deleted member 67076

pinerana said:
Is it really realistic though that the US wouldn't be pushing for at least some Louisiana lands?
Or that the growing population wouldn't demand from the government to acquire more land for settlement?
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Its not that its unrealistic, its just without say, British backing or the French selling Louisiana (both plausible I think), the Spanish troop presence would probably make any Anglo settlers either behave or be expelled. And declaring war would be fighting the entirety of the Spanish Army/Navy, a lopsided affair by sheer force of numbers on the Spanish side if the colonies remain loyal and Spain isnt distracted.

Perhaps a deal is reached, the northern lands are sold, the Anglo settlers start assimilating over time and peacefully integrate. Theres many ways this can go.

Personally I think a growing population with the borders boxed in would just lead to greater intensification of land cultivation in the remaining lands and greater urbanization. Maybe tenant farming in some areas that leads to peonage. Its not like the US was overpopulated.
effect the slavery debate in the US?
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This I wish I knew enough to answer.
 

isabella

unprincipled peter said:
Have Carlos IV be more like Carlos III. Maybe a different bride for OTL Carlos IV (this butterflies Godoy and OTL Fernando ). Basically, this line of thinking says insert a competent crown (or two) at a very critical stage. It would be tough with Nap as your neighbor, but the OTL crowns set a low bar for being able to do better.

Maybe bestow the good sense upon the crowns to have them not all be taken prisoner by Nap and handing him the keys to the country.

It is easy to find PODs to leave Spain in far better shape than OTL.
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Maybe here Joseph II will have what he wanted aka remarrying to his beloved Isabella’s younger sister (and will regret it forever unless Maria Luisa will die quickly in childbirth or for smallpox).
Now with Maria Luisa of Parma (who share the name with her Spanish first cousin who had married Leopold of Tuscany aka Joseph’s next brother, by the way) marrying the future HRE Joseph II, Maris Theresa will offer one of her own daughters as replacement for Charles IV of Spain, and that will be most likely Archduchess Maria Carolina or Maria Josepha (both of them here destined to marry Charles III’s sons as one will marry the prince of Asturias and the other the King of Naples)
 

galanx

unprincipled peter said:
Have Carlos IV be more like Carlos III. Maybe a different bride for OTL Carlos IV (this butterflies Godoy and OTL Fernando ). Basically, this line of thinking says insert a competent crown (or two) at a very critical stage. It would be tough with Nap as your neighbor, but the OTL crowns set a low bar for being able to do better.

Maybe bestow the good sense upon the crowns to have them not all be taken prisoner by Nap and handing him the keys to the country.

It is easy to find PODs to leave Spain in far better shape than OTL.
Click to expand...
. Maria Luisa's confessor said she told him on her deathbed that none of the royal children were legitimate offspring, the implication being Carlos IV was not up to the task. In my New Albion ATL I have Bernardo Galves surreptitiously takes on the job as sire to Ferdinand, improving the royal bloodline.
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
galanx said:
. Maria Luisa's confessor said she told him on her deathbed that none of the royal children were legitimate offspring, the implication being Carlos IV was not up to the task. In my New Albion ATL I have Bernardo Galves surreptitiously takes on the job as sire to Ferdinand, improving the royal bloodline.
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the second half of her brood were speculated to be sired by someone other than the King, with Godoy often being mentioned. I thought the first half were believed to be legitimate.

Any way you look at it, though, an alternate sperm or egg donor for Ferdinand is likely to help the situation
 

Fabius Maximus

pinerana said:
Is it really realistic though that the US wouldn't be pushing for at least some Louisiana lands?
Or that the growing population wouldn't demand from the government to acquire more land for settlement?
Click to expand...

I think that's mostly the influence of hindsight. The idea that the US had a destiny to settle the entire continent didn't get going till after the Mexican-American War, and it's not like the US east of the Mississippi has ever been particularly densely populated.
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
Fabius Maximus said:
I think that's mostly the influence of hindsight. The idea that the US had a destiny to settle the entire continent didn't get going till after the Mexican-American War, and it's not like the US east of the Mississippi has ever been particularly densely populated.
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I would say manifest destiny was born with the Louisiana purchase. I don't think many US Americans dreamed of expanding beyond the Mississippi until they woke up one day and read in the newspapers that the US had just doubled in size. At that point, the gov't was looking at the Northwest as the window to the Pacific. Everyday folk had to first fill up the territories east of the Miss. They did settle the west bank, but as you said, it wasn't til after the M-A war that westward settlement really got going.

In an ATL where Spain holds on to Louisiana, by the time the US fills up, Spain has firm control of the west bank. The call may very well be "Go west, young man, and become Spanish", or the alternative "Move to the city, young man, and get a job"
 
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