Hello everybody. Well, this is my first time posting on Alternatehistory.com since I've heard of this site since I was on the AltHistory Wiki in Wikia/FANDOM. But I am currently here because I need advice on a timeline I am writing on the Alternate History Wiki on Miraheze called Mexica Victory. And I figured since you guys are the experts in alternate history and I'm sorta lazy to do my own research, then I feel that you guys are the right people to ask.
Then prepare for disappointment, your not going to get a consensus here, simply because people have people differing outlooks on the Aztec's survivability, and indeed that of other native peoples. You
@Sapphire Williams need to ideally do your own research, you can ideas from us, but it may not be what you want, because at the end of the day you are just going to get our opinions, and you need to make your own.
Basically, the scenario is about what would happen if the Aztec Triple Alliance/Mexica Empire manage to defeat the Spanish Empire in 1520-1521. As in the Aztec manage to kill/capture all of the Spanish and opposing indigenous forces, and instead of the Spanish conquering the Aztecs and establishing New Spain, the Aztecs survive and establishes a society that exists in the present day.[/QUOTE]
Okay, the Aztecs would have to deal more with those natives that did rise against them, than the Spanish. They would have to try and stabilize their current situation, how they exist to the current day is not something that can be easily awnsered.
First off, how would the Aztecs manage to defeat the Spanish? I would say most likely it would be from the defeat of the Spanish during La Noche Triste, and also can and would the Aztec survive the smallpox epidemic introduced by the Spanish.
Okay, the only things that made the Spanish formidable were the fact they would get large numbers of native allies, and the fact the governor of Cuba's rival expedition joined Cortez. Superior technology could only get the Spanish so far, but it would not be enough to take the America's on its own. The Aztecs could survive, but they need to get their house in order, and possibly diplomacy with the Spanish.
Also, if the Aztec manage to defeat the Spanish the first time, would the Spanish and other European colonial powers attempt to invade and conquer the Aztecs again? Would the Aztecs become a trade partner with the European colonial powers. Also, would the Aztecs, along with the Spanish, French, British, etc. also become a colonial power and establish their own colonies throughout the Caribbean and the rest of the Americas?
And what about the neighboring Purepecha/Tarascan state, which was one of the biggest Aztec enemies? What would happen to them? If the Aztecs first manage to fight of the Spanish and trade with them, would they attempt to conquer the Purepecha again, or would they form an alliance and remain a separate state from each other?
And how would they expand? What about the eventual formation of the United States and the Incas?
What happens in Europe from 1520 is not given. At this point in the Time the Reformation is still ongoing and not set in stone, France and Spain are clashing over Italy. The Incas already exist. The Aztecs would probably engage in consolidation and possibly trying to sue for peace, a war would be risky.
It's all a matter of what does the Spanish colonial authority do next, Diego Velasquez de Cuellar would have basically lost face, and might be pressured by the king to see what these natives want providing he is not removed for losing what amounts to 1600-1700 men. Maybe the Aztecs become like the Kingdom of the Kongo, local allies to the Spanish?
Which still would do them no good against disease, and armored horsemen
They don't have Iron, and Bronze technology was very limited.
It's similar to torturing a Grey Alien on how to make an Anti-Matter powered Warp Drive with 21stC tech. You don't even have the Tools that can make the Tools needed for that sort of creation.
It's just doesn't do you much good in the short term. All you can reveal is that you are totally screwed. Squanto couldn't save the Wampanoag with what he learned from the Spanish and English
Yeah except the Wampanoag were driven out after losing King Philip's war, and they only lost that war because the English had help from native guides, and it was the natives who adapted European weapons to better use. The Europeans even with disease and technology could not fully best the native peoples of the Americas on their own, as if they were somehow supermen. Also, the natives of North American managed to develop firearms by copying the Europeans, so if fucking tribes can adopt and make their own firearms, I do not see why it would be impossible for the Aztecs?
Also what needs to be stated is that the Europeans would have gotten
nowhere in the Americas without native help period.
You can’t adopt to a new technology if you only can see the final products and have no idea how they were made. And to get that idea they’d need to have a reasonably advanced metallurgy (not to mention technology for making a gunpowder, etc.). As far as the Aztecs are involved, not sure about a comparable degree of their social advancement but their habit of sacrificing the prisoners (surely a sign of a developed society) would make a learning process rather complicated and not very productive. Well, not to mention a sad fact that for their neighbors even the Spaniards looked like an attractive alternative. BTW, Spanish conquest of Mexico (in the colonial terms) lasted for centuries but AFAIK the conquered tribes (all the way to California) did not manage to develop their own firearms.
As for the initial success as a stimulus, only the 3rd expedition into Mexico was successful which means that the Spaniards kept trying regardless the failures.
Except for the first two expeditions where more for scouting and exploration, if the third goes belly up it is basically the loss two expeditions Cortez and the one sent by the governor Diego Velasquez de Cuellar, with perhaps the most Spaniards killed period in the New World, it is certainly going to make Spain think twice, especially since it would be quite the disaster. The Italian Wars are in full swing in Europe, and the Ottomans are still a threat, with Suleman the Magnificant just starting his reign, and it was during this time that Spain did send military forces into North Africa.
Within a decade or 2? According to this idea there should be absolutely no difference in technology anywhere then if a state manages to adopt and implement technologies that fast ehile experiencing a population decline and recovering from a civil war.
It took Europe between a century and one and a half to start growing to their early 14th century levep, it will take Americans centuries at least.
Okay in theory adopting technology would not take that much time. When King Philip's War broke out between the New England colonies and the Wampanoag, it was only roughly 50 years and in between that time, the Native American tribes had adapted guns, gunsmithing and siege warfare from the Europeans.