PC/WI: Mary Tudor marries off Elizabeth?

[Fabius Maximus]

Mary Tudor, as we all know, brought England back into the Catholic fold after the reigns of Henry VIII and Edward VI, but her efforts were undone when she died childless and her sister Elizabeth converted the country to Protestantism.

Let's suppose that Mary has doubts about her sister's commitment to Catholicism, and decides to marry Elizabeth to a Catholic nobleman so that, if Mary dies without an heir, Elizabeth's husband will be able to keep her and the country on the religious straight and narrow. Would such a plan be feasible? And whom would Mary be most likely to choose as Elizabeth's husband?

 

[isabella]

Well Mary would be most likely influenced by Philip in choosing an husband for Elizabeth and by her own preferences for her Habsburg relatives so the most probable candidates for Elizabeth’s hand are:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luís_of_Portugal,_Duke_of_Beja
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_II,_Archduke_of_Austria
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_II,_Archduke_of_Austria
or https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Philibert,_Duke_of_Savoy.

 

[FalconHonour]

Mary Tudor, as we all know, brought England back into the Catholic fold after the reigns of Henry VIII and Edward VI, but her efforts were undone when she died childless and her sister Elizabeth converted the country to Protestantism.

Let's suppose that Mary has doubts about her sister's commitment to Catholicism, and decides to marry Elizabeth to a Catholic nobleman so that, if Mary dies without an heir, Elizabeth's husband will be able to keep her and the country on the religious straight and narrow. Would such a plan be feasible? And whom would Mary be most likely to choose as Elizabeth's husband?

I see one major problem with this. If Mary dies without an heir, Elizabeth is still Queen. If she takes her marriage vows under duress, they could be seen to be invalid. Elizabeth will just go back to England and annul her marriage once she's crowned, I'm sure. Though I suppose children could complicate matters a bit.

 

[isabella]

I see one major problem with this. If Mary dies without an heir, Elizabeth is still Queen. If she takes her marriage vows under duress, they could be seen to be invalid. Elizabeth will just go back to England and annul her marriage once she's crowned, I'm sure. Though I suppose children could complicate matters a bit.

Elizabeth can not do anything like that if her husband is powerful enough or has the support of very powerful relatives like the names who I suggested who are the only likely names on Mary and Philip’s list as they need to marry Elizabeth to someone who they can fully trust

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Well Mary would be most likely influenced by Philip in choosing an husband for Elizabeth and by her own preferences for her Habsburg relatives so the most probable candidates for Elizabeth’s hand are:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luís_of_Portugal,_Duke_of_Beja
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_II,_Archduke_of_Austria
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_II,_Archduke_of_Austria
or https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Philibert,_Duke_of_Savoy.

Don Carlos and the Duke of Segorbe were also offered by Felipe/Spain IIRC.

 

[FalconHonour]

Elizabeth can not do anything like that if her husband is powerful enough or has the support of very powerful relatives like the names who I suggested who are the only likely names on Mary and Philip’s list as they need to marry Elizabeth to someone who they can fully trust

Elizabeth is the daughter of the couple who quite literally turned England upside down and moved heaven and earth to be together. I think she'd be quite happy to annul her marriage whether the Spanish liked it or not. Besides I suspect any foreign marriage for Elizabeth would end up causing another Wyatt's rebellion sort of thing. The English aren't going to want her being sent abroad.

 

[isabella]

Don Carlos and the Duke of Segorbe were also offered by Felipe/Spain IIRC.

I do not think don Carlos would be a realistic candidate, and I do not know who is the Duke of Segorbe (aka if he would be acceptable).

Elizabeth is the daughter of the couple who quite literally turned England upside down and moved heaven and earth to be together. I think she'd be quite happy to annul her marriage whether the Spanish liked it or not. Besides I suspect any foreign marriage for Elizabeth would end up causing another Wyatt's rebellion sort of thing. The English aren't going to want her being sent abroad.

Pretty unlikely who Elizabeth would be sent abroad before the birth of an heir to Mary and Philip as none of the proposed candidates is a ruler (ok Savoy in theory is one but his lands right now are under French occupation and he is actually employed as general or governor by his maternal relatives...): Ferdinand and Charles of Austria are the second and third son of the future HRE Ferdinand I so first cousin of Philip from their fathers’ side, Emmanuel Philibert of Savoy is the son of Beatrice of Portugal (cousin of Mary Tudor and Karl V and sister of Empress Isabella) so first cousin of Philip from their mothers’ side, while Luis of Portugal, Duke of Beja is the second son of Maria of Aragon and Manuel of Portugal so a maternal uncle of Philip and first cousin of Mary from their mothers’ side...
Either of them, married to Elizabeth, would have the full support of Spain (plus eventually Austria or Portugal) but no consistent land of his own and no Kingdom to inhereit so the groom would likely came to England for the wedding and remained there as husband of the heiress presuntive (and representative of King Consort Philip and Spain) until the birth of Philip and Mary’s eldest child...

Oh, and the true Anne, if she had any choice, would have run the farthest away possible from Henry

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

and I do not know who is the Duke of Segorbe (aka if he would be acceptable).

Son of this guy. Scion of the Trastamaras (I'm not sure if he was legitimate or not. Some sources say yes, some no. Either way, his claim to the Spanish throne is inferior to the Habsburg/Aviz/Tudor one). AIUI Felipe proposed him because as a Trastamara, he was of royal blood (if distant), but he was also a Spanish subject who could be controlled by Felipe.

 

[JennyB]

Mary Tudor, as we all know, brought England back into the Catholic fold after the reigns of Henry VIII and Edward VI, but her efforts were undone when she died childless and her sister Elizabeth converted the country to Protestantism.

Let's suppose that Mary has doubts about her sister's commitment to Catholicism, and decides to marry Elizabeth to a Catholic nobleman so that, if Mary dies without an heir, Elizabeth's husband will be able to keep her and the country on the religious straight and narrow. Would such a plan be feasible? And whom would Mary be most likely to choose as Elizabeth's husband?

But surely Elizabeth's succession would only be seen as valid if her own mother's marriage was accepted as legitimate? That's a big ask for Mary. What good Catholic is going to marry the bastard heretic witch-child?

 

[isabella]

Son of this guy. Scion of the Trastamaras (I'm not sure if he was legitimate or not. Some sources say yes, some no. Either way, his claim to the Spanish throne is inferior to the Habsburg/Aviz/Tudor one). AIUI Felipe proposed him because as a Trastamara, he was of royal blood (if distant), but he was also a Spanish subject who could be controlled by Felipe.

Francisco is both legitimate and from a fully royal junior line so we have no trouble here but is still 6 years junior than Elizabeth who as heiress presuntive of England has better offers...

But surely Elizabeth's succession would only be seen as valid if her own mother's marriage was accepted as legitimate? That's a big ask for Mary. What good Catholic is going to marry the bastard heretic witch-child?

No way Mary can deny Elizabeth’s rights after inhereiting the crown in the same situation. Deny the validity of her father’s will after saying who the one of her brother was invalid because was different from that of her father would be a bad thing to do...
Elizabeth is the heiress of England unless she die because that was the will of Henry VIII...
And do not worry who Elizabeth, fully legitimate or not, had plenty of offers as her place in the line of succession under Mary was never under risk (because really Mary Tudor what other choice as as heir? Lady Katherine Grey? Please, Elizabeth is much better than her. Mary of Scotland, excluded by Henry’s will and engaged to the Dauphin of France? Only over Philip’s body. Margaret Douglas? Still not recognized by Henry’s will and with a junior claim than her Scottish half-niece)

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Francisco is both legitimate and from a fully royal junior line so we have no trouble here but is still 6 years junior than Elizabeth who as heiress presuntive of England has better offers...

Karl of Steyr is still younger and the duke of Savoy is technically landless, so it all comes out in the wash (IMO) anyway

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

And depending on the POD, you could easily arrange for one of Alfonso's older sons to survive - he had Fernando (b.1533, died young), Alfonso Jr (b.1536, d.1550) or Juan (b.1537, died young)

 

[isabella]

And depending on the POD, you could easily arrange for one of Alfonso's older sons to survive - he had Fernando (b.1533, died young), Alfonso Jr (b.1536, d.1550) or Juan (b.1537, died young)

True but the rank would be more problematic than the age...

Karl of Steyr is still younger and the duke of Savoy is technically landless, so it all comes out in the wash (IMO) anyway

True but the rank of both is higher than the one of Segorbe...
For me Beja and Archduke Ferdinand would be the best choices but if one is unwilling to marry and the other has already married his OTL wife the young Charles or Savoy are the best of the remaining candidates. Don Carlos is really too young plus already heir of too much lands, while Beja would bring back the old alliance with Portugal other than the Spanish one, while the Archduke has good chances to preserve the union with Netherlands

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Well Mary would be most likely influenced by Philip in choosing an husband for Elizabeth and by her own preferences for her Habsburg relatives so the most probable candidates for Elizabeth’s hand are:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luís_of_Portugal,_Duke_of_Beja
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_II,_Archduke_of_Austria
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_II,_Archduke_of_Austria
or https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Philibert,_Duke_of_Savoy.

Interesting, thanks.

Is there any chance of an English match? From what I've read Mary's marriage to Philip was quite unpopular (though maybe that's just Protestant propaganda, IDK), so she might decide that marrying her heiress presumptive to an English nobleman would be a safer move politically.

But surely Elizabeth's succession would only be seen as valid if her own mother's marriage was accepted as legitimate? That's a big ask for Mary. What good Catholic is going to marry the bastard heretic witch-child?

Well, Mary seems to have accepted Elizabeth as her successor IOTL, as does the Catholic world more generally -- Regnans in Excelsis was only promulgated in 1570, and that was issued because of Elizabeth's heresy, not her bastardry.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

so she might decide that marrying her heiress presumptive to an English nobleman would be a safer move politically.

It would be more dangerous - unless said nobleman is a staunch Marian supporter or a nobody. Howards are Catholic, but Liz is already quarter Howard, so Mary might not like that. Courtenay surviving and married to Liz is likewise dangerous to Mary. Maybe one of the Brandon boys surviving and marrying Liz would be a good way to go - although I suspect the duchess of Suffolk's Protestantism might scotch such a match.

 

[FalconHonour]

It would be more dangerous - unless said nobleman is a staunch Marian supporter or a nobody. Howards are Catholic, but Liz is already quarter Howard, so Mary might not like that. Courtenay surviving and married to Liz is likewise dangerous to Mary. Maybe one of the Brandon boys surviving and marrying Liz would be a good way to go - although I suspect the duchess of Suffolk's Protestantism might scotch such a match.

Not if one of Frances Brandon's sons survives TTL. Mary was reputedly very fond of her Brandon cousin despite the difference in their faith. If butterflies make Jane a boy TTL, or give her a brother then said Grey and Elizabeth could possibly be considered as a match...

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Not if one of Frances Brandon's sons survives TTL. Mary was reputedly very fond of her Brandon cousin despite the difference in their faith. If butterflies make Jane a boy TTL, or give her a brother then said Grey and Elizabeth could possibly be considered as a match...

Not sure Mary would agree to it. She'd be raising Elizabeth into even more of a lightning rod than OTL. I think the likeliest gentleman considered will either be a foreigner or someone with no claim to the throne.
@desmirelle

 

[isabella]

It would be more dangerous - unless said nobleman is a staunch Marian supporter or a nobody. Howards are Catholic, but Liz is already quarter Howard, so Mary might not like that. Courtenay surviving and married to Liz is likewise dangerous to Mary. Maybe one of the Brandon boys surviving and marrying Liz would be a good way to go - although I suspect the duchess of Suffolk's Protestantism might scotch such a match.

Not if one of Frances Brandon's sons survives TTL. Mary was reputedly very fond of her Brandon cousin despite the difference in their faith. If butterflies make Jane a boy TTL, or give her a brother then said Grey and Elizabeth could possibly be considered as a match...

Well, if one of the sons of Frances survived he would be Edward’s designated heir. Then Edward would likely marry him to Elizabeth and is pretty plausible who he would be able to keep his crown so Mary would never be Queen. A son of Brandon by Catherine will not be Catholic so will not be a candidate, the Howards are too dangerous, Courtenay also so they are out.
Mary and Philip need someone close to them as husband for Elizabeth so one of the four men I named is the most likely choice

 

[Urbanus VII]

As Mary's pregnancy progressed, Philip began to make plans for the succession if the Queen were to die in childbirth, a relatively common occurrence in Tudor England. Mary would most likely want to exclude Elizabeth from the throne, which meant that the crown would then fall to Mary Queen of Scots, who was about to marry the son of the King of France and was unacceptable for Spanish interests. Philip suggested marrying Elizabeth to a Catholic (and ally of the Holy Roman Emperor): Emanuel Philibert, Duke of Savoy.
What was really important for Philip, was not «who» would marry Elizabeth, but «how» keep the England in the orbit of Spain. The coordinated interest, was the future of Emmanuel Philibert of Savoy, first cousin of Philip, future inextricably linked with his marriage.
This is because the situation of the young Savoy was the center of interest of many.

Emmanuel Philibert was sent to Charles V in July 1545. In Brussels he has forged a strong bond with his first maternal cousin Philip of Spain and he was proclaimed lieutenant general in Flanders and supreme commander of the imperial armies (27 June 1553).
Dead his father, the duke Charles III, on the night between 16 and 17 August 1553 in Vercelli, there was remained almost nothing of the his State.
Convinced that only on the battlefield could find salvation of the Savoyard state, Emmanuel Philibert participated in the various military exploits of his uncle Emperor Charles V. However, were those years of needs and economic necessities almost humiliating, to which little could cope sacrificed the ducal finances. He was forced to restrict his personal expenses to a minimum and its already small court.
A year after his father's death, on 15 July 1554, Emmanuel Philibert was officially invested by Charles V of the Duchy of Savoy, an investiture only formal, since almost all of the Duchy in the hands of the French. The estates still in the hands of the Savoy were few and isolated from each other: Vercelli, Asti, Ceva, Fossano, Cuneo, Nice, Ivrea and the Val d'Aosta.
Three weeks later, at Arras, the new duke made his will. The indications were very precise and binding: the Emmanuel Philibert indicated his cousin Jacques, duke of Nemours, as the heir of all his states «provided that, however, he leaves the service of the king of France [...] and submit himself to the good graces of the Emperor, from which depend his states, and pay due obedience; if he does not fulfill the provisions above within a month, he [Jacques] will be private [of his inheritance and rights] and will be invested as heir Philip of Austria, son of the Emperor, Prince of Spain». Equally, if Jacques died without heirs, Philip would be the heir. This will clearly reveals the political and diplomatic pact there is under: in case of death of Emmanuel Philibert, Spain would have secured all the rights of succession on the Savoy state. Thus, Emmanuel Philibert linked the future of the house of Savoy exclusively to its military capabilities on the one hand, and to a future marriage, on the other.
Here, then, the importance of the marriage of Emmanuel Philibert.

When Philip became King of England thanks to his marriage to Mary Tudor, Emmanuel Philibert was received by his cousin in London and Queen Mary gave him the Order of the Garter. And behold, there was talk of a possible marriage between Emmanuel Philibert and sister of queen, Elizabeth.
After the 'phantom pregnancy' of Queen Mary, with no prospect of an heir to the English throne (and a regency for himself), Philip thought that with this marriage, and a not remote possibility of becoming King of England, his cousin would have been amply repaid of the loss (or waiver) of his Italian states, and would have preserved, in any case, England in the orbit of Spain.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

(Snip)

Very interesting, thanks for that. Do you think it would work as a way of keeping England in the Spanish orbit, or would Emmanuel start getting more bolshy now what he has a kingdom of his (wife's) own? I think there could be an interesting TL wherein Philip basically treats Emmanuel's England as a client state, leading to resentment on the part of Emmanuel/England more generally and a subsequent rupturing of relations.