A Blunted Sickle - Thread II
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I'd imagine so, especially the more ambitious units. You'll always have some units who want to follow everything by the book and some that will do anything to keep going - just like that American unit that was driving fire engines and civvie cars to keep themselves on the move in 1945.
Yup. Long, long...
Von Falkenhorst knows this and so I'm guessing he's much more concerned about the British in Germany than the Norwegians in northern Norway. The British could be in Warsaw, Minsk, or Omsk before the Norwegian reach Trondheim (And I'm guessing the advancing troops are all Norwegian, at this point all of the soldiers that aren't Norwegian have been pulled south, and if the Norwegians have complained about *that* it is for show rather than anything else)
The time for feints is over. I'm guessing that at this point (on the 26th), the Germans could get all of the operational intelligence about the attack and it wouldn't help them much at all. I'm not even sure being told the *exact* point on the Front where the French and British forces meet would be useful.
Flip a coin on Heinkel, with the greater effort to kill the Jews rather than use them as slaves, he might not have them.
Speaking of people who might not have Jews, Oscar Schindler may or may not have the enamel factory in Krakow, but if he does, I think the workers are more likely to be Polish non-Jews. He might actually end up worse off than iOTL.
For Todt and Roseberg, I agree.
For the industrialists, the question is do they change their jobs, or do they change who they do it for. The British and French wouldn't mind getting their hands on the nowledge, could they end up like Von Braun in using their knowledge for someone other than Germany?
For Saurbuch, dying early might not be the bad news, he continued doing surgeries after becoming demented late in life...
The other question is when the Slovaks do move, do the head north into Poland or West in to the Czech areas.
How do the visions of Benes and Osuský differ?
How are the Dutch and British navies acting in concert with the Dutch Army as it moves up the coast? And does Helgioland need to fall?
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After September 1, there are only two nations that didn't border the 3R and its conquered lands that would have a made a significant difference if they had joined.
1) The United States of America, if only because it would have opened the oil taps and given the Entente a much larger line of Credit.
2) Japan, since a Japan with troops deployed in the war would have been much less of a threat in the Pacific and as such some of the army troops guarding Singapore might have been moved to Europe.
Don't forget the beer flats we stuck loads in them when we were taped for Granby then where weren't sent out as a unit just dribs and drabs everywhere. We laughed when the band where sent out first to do their real job of stretcher carrier types.
Jonathansouth
Banned
When I was in the Navy I heard stories about some very enterprising crew members on one of the submarines that had created a fake bulkhead shortening the crew compartment by a couple of feet but behind it they had completly filled it with booze.
The crypto wagon is always a good solution for all your smuggling needs.
"Good morning Sir, can we look in the back of your vehicle?"
"No"
Asian Butterflies
Now that it appears that the war in Europe is rapidly coming to an end, perhaps we can turn to look at developments in Asia. The strategic situation for the Japanese is looking increasingly dire. Since the end of 1938, the war in China has ground to a virtual stalemate. In the OTL, it would remain so until 1944, when the Japanese launched Operation Ichi-Go.
Any benefits that the Japanese have from the lack of an oil embargo by the US and the Netherlands are probably only ephemeral. Japan would be rapidly draining its remaining gold reserves needed to pay for any oil imports. Japan ran a trade deficit during the late 1930s and the war in Europe would have depressed the demand for silk and tea, which were Japan’s main exports. The Japanese government had imposed strict controls on imports to slow the drain of its gold reserves, but this is only a stop gap measure.
In addition, China would be significantly strengthened by the French keeping Haiphong-Kunming railroad open to Chinese war materiel imports. The eventual German surrender will soon free up tons of war surplus materiel that can be shipped to the Nationalist government in China. Several hundred surplus French R-35 and H-39 tanks could have a dramatic effect on the military balance in China. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe that they would outmatch anything that Japan has in its inventory.
In geopolitical terms, the defeat of Germany will be catastrophic for Japan, eliminating the only potentially useful ally that it had against the Western powers. Britain and France have already matched Japan in naval forces in the Far East and the end of the war in Europe (assuming the Entente doesn’t get into a shooting war with the USSR) will free these two powers to shift more ground and air forces to this theater. The forward positioning of the French naval squadron and naval patrol aircraft at Cam Ranh Bay provides an effective screen against any potential Japanese sneak attack against the main Entente fleet concentration at Singapore. Btw, by this time I would expect the French to swap out Force X with the Force de Raid (Battleships Strasbourg and Dunkerque, light cruisers Montcalm, Gloire, and George Leygues, and three divisions of Le Fantasque-class heavy destroyers), giving the French a fast modern squadron to patrol in the South China Sea. (As an aside, in June 1940 the French decided to build a major naval base at Cam Ranh Bay, to be completed in 1944. More information can be found at https://clausuchronia.wordpress.com/tag/baie-de-cam-ranh/)
Looking further north, the Soviets are in the position to provide significantly more aid to the Chinese communists (again assuming the USSR doesn’t get into a shooting war with the Entente). Stalin may even consider a direct intervention to seize Manchuria. Any problems that the Japanese have handling the R-35 would be multiplied against the T-34.
Adding in the possibility of the United States as a potential enemy leaves Japan completely isolated and surrounded by overwhelming military power. The status quo in untenable, so the Japanese needs something dramatic to change it.
So how will Japan respond to this geopolitical nightmare? Chiang Kai-shek had previously said that was willing to consider negotiating a peace settlement with Japan, but only on the condition that Japan agreed to withdraw to the pre-1937 border. Would the militarists in charge in Tokyo now be willing accept this condition or would they remain too detached from reality and believe that they can still win the war? If the latter, what will be their strategy? To win the war, Japan would need to isolate China from receiving outside aid as well as securing a source of oil. As in the OTL, this suggests a Japanese move south to seize Indochina, Burma, and the Dutch East Indies, but the correlation of forces here are much worse than in the OTL.
The Japanese Imperial Navy is still probably committed to the doctrine of the decisive sea battle. Would they be willing to risk all and sail into the South China Sea for a decisive face off against the combined British-French-Dutch naval forces? Would the Japanese naval high command regard this as suicidal and try to stage a coup against the army? Are there any other potential strategies that have any realistic chances of success? I’m intrigued to see what our esteemed author comes up with to solve this conundrum for the Japanese.
Now that it appears that the war in Europe is rapidly coming to an end, perhaps we can turn to look at developments in Asia. The strategic situation for the Japanese is looking increasingly dire. Since the end of 1938, the war in China has ground to a virtual stalemate. In the OTL, it would remain so until 1944, when the Japanese launched Operation Ichi-Go.
Any benefits that the Japanese have from the lack of an oil embargo by the US and the Netherlands are probably only ephemeral. Japan would be rapidly draining its remaining gold reserves needed to pay for any oil imports. Japan ran a trade deficit during the late 1930s and the war in Europe would have depressed the demand for silk and tea, which were Japan’s main exports. The Japanese government had imposed strict controls on imports to slow the drain of its gold reserves, but this is only a stop gap measure.
In addition, China would be significantly strengthened by the French keeping Haiphong-Kunming railroad open to Chinese war materiel imports. The eventual German surrender will soon free up tons of war surplus materiel that can be shipped to the Nationalist government in China. Several hundred surplus French R-35 and H-39 tanks could have a dramatic effect on the military balance in China. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe that they would outmatch anything that Japan has in its inventory.
In geopolitical terms, the defeat of Germany will be catastrophic for Japan, eliminating the only potentially useful ally that it had against the Western powers. Britain and France have already matched Japan in naval forces in the Far East and the end of the war in Europe (assuming the Entente doesn’t get into a shooting war with the USSR) will free these two powers to shift more ground and air forces to this theater. The forward positioning of the French naval squadron and naval patrol aircraft at Cam Ranh Bay provides an effective screen against any potential Japanese sneak attack against the main Entente fleet concentration at Singapore. Btw, by this time I would expect the French to swap out Force X with the Force de Raid (Battleships Strasbourg and Dunkerque, light cruisers Montcalm, Gloire, and George Leygues, and three divisions of Le Fantasque-class heavy destroyers), giving the French a fast modern squadron to patrol in the South China Sea. (As an aside, in June 1940 the French decided to build a major naval base at Cam Ranh Bay, to be completed in 1944. More information can be found at https://clausuchronia.wordpress.com/tag/baie-de-cam-ranh/)
Looking further north, the Soviets are in the position to provide significantly more aid to the Chinese communists (again assuming the USSR doesn’t get into a shooting war with the Entente). Stalin may even consider a direct intervention to seize Manchuria. Any problems that the Japanese have handling the R-35 would be multiplied against the T-34.
Adding in the possibility of the United States as a potential enemy leaves Japan completely isolated and surrounded by overwhelming military power. The status quo in untenable, so the Japanese needs something dramatic to change it.
So how will Japan respond to this geopolitical nightmare? Chiang Kai-shek had previously said that was willing to consider negotiating a peace settlement with Japan, but only on the condition that Japan agreed to withdraw to the pre-1937 border. Would the militarists in charge in Tokyo now be willing accept this condition or would they remain too detached from reality and believe that they can still win the war? If the latter, what will be their strategy? To win the war, Japan would need to isolate China from receiving outside aid as well as securing a source of oil. As in the OTL, this suggests a Japanese move south to seize Indochina, Burma, and the Dutch East Indies, but the correlation of forces here are much worse than in the OTL.
The Japanese Imperial Navy is still probably committed to the doctrine of the decisive sea battle. Would they be willing to risk all and sail into the South China Sea for a decisive face off against the combined British-French-Dutch naval forces? Would the Japanese naval high command regard this as suicidal and try to stage a coup against the army? Are there any other potential strategies that have any realistic chances of success? I’m intrigued to see what our esteemed author comes up with to solve this conundrum for the Japanese.
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Driftless
Donor
Post-Western Europe fight, who has first "dibs" on surplus/obsolescent French and British tanks? The Chinese, Poles, Greeks, Norwegians, Swedes, Finns, Balkans, etc? There's going to be several countries anxiously looking over their shoulder at the Soviets. Also, there may be some salvageable German equipment to add to the clearance sale, and maybe Mussolini would look to sell off older Italian gear and use the cash to upgrade their materials. Would the US get into the market with second-tier stuff (Marmon-Herrington tanks, M-2's, etc) to one-time/would be neutrals?
Driftless
Donor
Yes, IJA tanks were tiny
But they had mobility in areas not really meant for mechanization
Not seen in this photo, Corporal Walter "Radar" O'Reilly is organizing crates for shipping the little tank home to Iowa, where it will become a farm implement.....
marathag
Banned
They were small enough, that given enough time, you could almost Johnny Cash that sucker back to the USA, piece by piece
In regards to Japan. The defeat of Germany leaves the following as Great Powers other than Japan:
*The Entente (and I expect at *least* a decade before it would make sense to deal with the UK and France as separate Great Powers in being publicly opposed to something in Politics
*Italy , which is punching above its weight, will need a nuke before being sure that the Entente powers won't simply roll over it. (The good news for the Italians is that Southern Libya is almost idea for testing a nuke)
*USSR
*USA
The Japanese have to go through the Entente to get the Dutch East Indies and the Dutch are arguably the third strongest power in the Entente, so they'll have security guarantees with the British and French for quite some time. Leaving the USA unattacked on their flank is playing with fire, though that may be the only option for them.
Is there *any* chance that a Japanese-USSR alliance could come into existance?
Looking forward longer term, *perhaps* an Indian-Japanese alliance could come into affect, but that would probably require the Chinese to tick off the Indians, which would probably require both a strong China *and* one whose defenses weren't primarily aimed at the Japanese....
*The Entente (and I expect at *least* a decade before it would make sense to deal with the UK and France as separate Great Powers in being publicly opposed to something in Politics
*Italy , which is punching above its weight, will need a nuke before being sure that the Entente powers won't simply roll over it. (The good news for the Italians is that Southern Libya is almost idea for testing a nuke)
*USSR
*USA
The Japanese have to go through the Entente to get the Dutch East Indies and the Dutch are arguably the third strongest power in the Entente, so they'll have security guarantees with the British and French for quite some time. Leaving the USA unattacked on their flank is playing with fire, though that may be the only option for them.
Is there *any* chance that a Japanese-USSR alliance could come into existance?
Looking forward longer term, *perhaps* an Indian-Japanese alliance could come into affect, but that would probably require the Chinese to tick off the Indians, which would probably require both a strong China *and* one whose defenses weren't primarily aimed at the Japanese....
I wouldn’t expect India to try anything against anyone ATL for a while yet. They’re busy decolonising.
Flashpoints against China are the border conflicts and Tibet. Depending on whether/how an Indian Partition occurs some of those borders might not be OTL India on the subcontinental side anyway. Meanwhile Tibet wasn’t occupied until after the Chinese Civil War concluded, let alone the war with the Japanese.
Flashpoints against China are the border conflicts and Tibet. Depending on whether/how an Indian Partition occurs some of those borders might not be OTL India on the subcontinental side anyway. Meanwhile Tibet wasn’t occupied until after the Chinese Civil War concluded, let alone the war with the Japanese.
Partition, I think, may still happen. At least, I don't recall seeing anything happening that would change Jinnah's mind regarding the necessity of the exercise. How bloody it gets may be open to debate, as part of what made Partition such a bloodbath (IMO, anyway) was the speed with which it was all undertaken and the uncertainty around how it would pan out. If the OTL timeline of decolonization stretches from a few months to a year or more, we may see a more orderly Partition with, hopefully, less bloodshed.
Hi,
For what it's worth :
R35 were starting to be replaced by the R40 variant in May 1940, with the new production being switched to the new variant, and a plan to retrofit the existing tanks. With the following unpleasantness, and associated attrition, either all surviving R35 have been destroyed / retrofited, or there may have been a decision to simply remove the last few hundreds from the frontline during the winter and replace them with R40. If the latter, it's likely the remaining R35 would have been sent to Indochina, and it's possible a couple hundreds could have been sold to China as early as Spring '41.
Same thing for the H35 : they were being switched to the H39/40 variant, and depending on events and decisions, the remaining H35 may already be in Indochina and/or China.
Both types are as small and light as their Japanese counterpart, tend to be less good in cross-country, possibly less reliable too, but are better armored. Their armament is more than sufficient for the Japanese armor, especially at the distances the Japanese need to come to in order to defeat the French armor.
It's also worth noting that, since the battles for Paris and the offensives in Belgium, the Germans have lost entire armored divisions, whose remains were left on Entente controlled battlefields. Between tanks captured intact, and knocked-out / scuttled tanks that could be repaired, plus all the spare parts lying around in the wrecks, it would be surprising if a few hundred panzers and associated armored cars / halftracks haven't already found their way to Kunming, at scrap metal prices. Plus rifles, machine guns, mortars, helmets, ...
Regards,
Gwen
For what it's worth :
R35 were starting to be replaced by the R40 variant in May 1940, with the new production being switched to the new variant, and a plan to retrofit the existing tanks. With the following unpleasantness, and associated attrition, either all surviving R35 have been destroyed / retrofited, or there may have been a decision to simply remove the last few hundreds from the frontline during the winter and replace them with R40. If the latter, it's likely the remaining R35 would have been sent to Indochina, and it's possible a couple hundreds could have been sold to China as early as Spring '41.
Same thing for the H35 : they were being switched to the H39/40 variant, and depending on events and decisions, the remaining H35 may already be in Indochina and/or China.
Both types are as small and light as their Japanese counterpart, tend to be less good in cross-country, possibly less reliable too, but are better armored. Their armament is more than sufficient for the Japanese armor, especially at the distances the Japanese need to come to in order to defeat the French armor.
It's also worth noting that, since the battles for Paris and the offensives in Belgium, the Germans have lost entire armored divisions, whose remains were left on Entente controlled battlefields. Between tanks captured intact, and knocked-out / scuttled tanks that could be repaired, plus all the spare parts lying around in the wrecks, it would be surprising if a few hundred panzers and associated armored cars / halftracks haven't already found their way to Kunming, at scrap metal prices. Plus rifles, machine guns, mortars, helmets, ...
Regards,
Gwen
Now, for Japan, the least bad solution would be a democratic coup to purge the ultranationalist elements and back away from China. Whether it can still happen and if it would be received favourably outside remains unsure however.