Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2
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Keeping with the roughly 6 to 9 months ahead of OTL schedule and if the above mentioned operations go well I would think launching this bigger ATL Operation Dragoon in March of 1944. A larger and deeper advance through Southern France, if it is large enough and adequately supplied, would play merry hell with German efforts to further fortify their forces in Northern France in preparation for Overlord. And if it is very successful than the German commanders will be concerned over their long Southern flank.
What a target for Allied tactical air as German units shift their positions or travel by road or rail to the South of France under skies dominated by the Allied air forces. I think the weather at that time of year is acceptable for air operations and for the landings as well. Tactical air units based in newly liberated airfields in France can reach the railroad lines entering France from Spain and Portugal thereby removing another supply of strategic materials.
But I would think launching a massive offensive from the South of France just before D-day would be very effective. Maybe possible if the puportive large Free French Army and Air Force formations mentioned earlier can be stood up. Heavily supplied and well supported by other Allied units.
But where would all this material come from? I think this depends on how the Italian Campaign proceeds in this TL. How quickly and less costly can Italy be secured? Almost anything would be an improvement to the bastard it was in OTL.
As long as we don't screw up the switch over..get troops ashore..gain control of Rome and the government..all things we botched in OTL..wow, the West could look A LOT better, not just better.
formion
Banned
Perhaps the best POD is to convince the King Vittorio Emanuele and the generals Badoglio and Ambrosio, that they will have to honor the cooperation clause of the armistice. They thought they can remain neutral without taking active measures to support the Allies. They sincerely hoped that the Germans wouldn't attack and occupy Italy or the Italiann-held Balkans. That was a delusion of epic scale !
Navy and air units that were pre-warned about the armistice, where able to escape to Malta or to fly to Allied airfields. The army got no such forewarning and each commander was left after the announcement without orders. They were told to stop fighting the Allies (but not stop fighting the partizans) and not to assist the Allies.
Simply having a couple of loyal divisions around Rome prepared to actually resist and secure just the city of Rome would be enough. Rommel contemplated already that only the Po valley can be secured (Gothic Line almost a year early). Kesselring convinced Hitler to resist in the south. For an unopposed landing in Greece to succeed, the Italians only need to remain passive and keep the Piraeus and Volos ports open for 24 hours. The Greek resistance can blow up the railway bridges as in OTL to stop any movement of German troops to the south.
So, very basic understanding of the situation and elementary coup skills would make a huge difference. If the Allies find themselves in front of the Gothic Line in October 1943 ( or summer 1943 in TTL), they can break to the Po valley in summer 1944. Offensives in 1945 may result in a 100% Allied-occupied Austria and Czechia. Hungary can more easily jump ship and the Allies can meet the Soviets in the Danube. A neutral finlandized Hungary in the Cold War, with NATO Austria and Czechia will alter irrevocably the balance of power in Europe, by providing depth to NATO, while the Soviets cannot get their hands on Czech uranium.
Just to steam a few hours from Crete after the armistice and establish a Balkan Front will alter the history of SE Europe as well. Albania may end up a NATO country or neutral. Yugoslavia will be an enigma. but surrounded by NATO Greece, Italy, Austria, Albania and a neutral capitalist Hungary, they will have to appease the West - if Tito establishes himself as in OTL and that is a big if. Bulgaria can become a neutral country in the end as well. That is a pretty nice cordon sanitaire to protect the West, while tens of millions escape their OTL fates under communism.
Story 1940 Info dump on Western ground forces
March 11, 1943 Arlington Virginia
Quartermasters and planners were locked into the room. They had been huddled together for so long that the British and Americans were actually speaking the same language instead of two diametrically opposed dialects. More than a few fists had been thrown on the issue of “tabling” proposals months ago. Now there was a poster of common phrases and agreed upon meaning hung up in every conference room. No one had said “table” a proposal since the New Year.
Today’s meeting was over the allocation of resources from American and Commonwealth factories to the Free Allied armies. Naval and air units were another planning cell’s problem. The American colonel in charge of the briefing began his talk:
“To summarize, by June 1, 1944, the United States will be have stood up 105 divisions, inclusive of Marines. This will consist of 5 Marine divisions, and another division equivalent of Marines, 18 armored divisions, 2 cavalry divisions, 1 airborne division, 3 airborne division equivalents in independent brigades, 1 special projects division, and 73 infantry divisions including Colored and Spanish speaking units. Corps and Army level support units will be proportional. The Commonwealth anticipates have fifty two British divisions formed by that date. This will be composed of twelve armoured, one airborne and thirty nine infantry divisions. Not all are to be at full strength nor capable of sustained, offensive operations. Canada will supply five divisions, including one armoured. Australia will supply five divisions including a single armoured division while New Zealand will commit to a single infantry division and an independent brigade while South Africa and Rhodesia will be committed to a combined two armoured divisions and two independent infantry brigades. The Indian Army will field twenty four divisions including two armoured divisions. These Indian divisions will include some British units. Not all Indian divisions are available for deployment outside of the Raj.
Now let’s get to the meat of today’s discussion. Can we reconcile national desires with our supply situation?
The State Department and the Foreign Ministry have agreed to Lend Lease supplies to Brazil for a single standard pattern infantry division.
This is the only Western Hemisphere divisional contribution that we must discuss.
We will proceed counterclockwise around the European theatre starting in Poland. The Poles are mainly in the Mediterranean Theatre at this time as part of the Army of Liberation. They have two corps with five infantry and two armored divisions. Conscription of Polish nationals living in the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States will allow for the replacement of casualties. There has been a request to convert at least one more infantry division to the South African armoured division pattern.
Norway currently has the Free 6th Norwegian Division with four brigades of light infantry trained for specialized duties. These units are in Scotland on training and home defense duties.
Free Dutch forces and the Dutch Army of the Indies are entirely reliant on Allied supply. Limited, local logistical support of basic consumables and petroleum is available in the Indies. Currently, there is a single Dutch European division in Java, and four more infantry as well as one mechanized cavalry division are rebuilding. None are available for combat operations at this time but should be available by June 1, 1944.
The Royal Navy evacuated almost 100,000 men from the Belgian Army. The Free Belgian Army currently consists of five four battalion infantry brigades. They routinely train with the single Free Czech tank brigade. One brigade has been deployed to the Belgian Congo. We can consider this to be an oversized single division.
French forces will be the dominant subject of discussion today. There are three major streams of French forces that must be supplied with current production and another stream that will be under consideration for future meetings. Currently, the French can field two infantry divisions that have been in Great Britain since 1940. Another six divisions including an armoured division have been formed and supplied from the units of the North African garrisons. Madagascar and Levantine garrisons can supply another two infantry divisions. Local conscription can supply several more divisions worth of manpower while there is sufficient officers and cadre for at least three more divisions. The French want to convert at least three of their current divisions to Commonwealth standard armoured divisions.
In the long run, as we liberate France, we will also need to support a greatly expanded French Army that can conscript and train from local populations.
Finally, the Greeks have a single infantry division on Crete, and another veteran division in Libya. They have stood up a static division from Cretan conscripts. If and when we move significant forces into Greece, we will face the same challenge of re-equipping the Greek Army that is able to build units from local populations.
We have significant but limited resources. Every ten half tracks we send to a Free unit to build it up is probably seven half tracks that will not be used by the Russians on the Eastern Front. Over the long run, building up Free allied units will be a more efficient use of resources presuming the Russians can continue to battle the Heer to a standstill but if we pull to many resources from our Russian allies, they may either be defeated or agree to a separate peace. And then an extra division or two of French or Greek troops will be meaningless against the newly available hundred German divisions….
So let’s get to work….”
Quartermasters and planners were locked into the room. They had been huddled together for so long that the British and Americans were actually speaking the same language instead of two diametrically opposed dialects. More than a few fists had been thrown on the issue of “tabling” proposals months ago. Now there was a poster of common phrases and agreed upon meaning hung up in every conference room. No one had said “table” a proposal since the New Year.
Today’s meeting was over the allocation of resources from American and Commonwealth factories to the Free Allied armies. Naval and air units were another planning cell’s problem. The American colonel in charge of the briefing began his talk:
“To summarize, by June 1, 1944, the United States will be have stood up 105 divisions, inclusive of Marines. This will consist of 5 Marine divisions, and another division equivalent of Marines, 18 armored divisions, 2 cavalry divisions, 1 airborne division, 3 airborne division equivalents in independent brigades, 1 special projects division, and 73 infantry divisions including Colored and Spanish speaking units. Corps and Army level support units will be proportional. The Commonwealth anticipates have fifty two British divisions formed by that date. This will be composed of twelve armoured, one airborne and thirty nine infantry divisions. Not all are to be at full strength nor capable of sustained, offensive operations. Canada will supply five divisions, including one armoured. Australia will supply five divisions including a single armoured division while New Zealand will commit to a single infantry division and an independent brigade while South Africa and Rhodesia will be committed to a combined two armoured divisions and two independent infantry brigades. The Indian Army will field twenty four divisions including two armoured divisions. These Indian divisions will include some British units. Not all Indian divisions are available for deployment outside of the Raj.
Now let’s get to the meat of today’s discussion. Can we reconcile national desires with our supply situation?
The State Department and the Foreign Ministry have agreed to Lend Lease supplies to Brazil for a single standard pattern infantry division.
This is the only Western Hemisphere divisional contribution that we must discuss.
We will proceed counterclockwise around the European theatre starting in Poland. The Poles are mainly in the Mediterranean Theatre at this time as part of the Army of Liberation. They have two corps with five infantry and two armored divisions. Conscription of Polish nationals living in the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States will allow for the replacement of casualties. There has been a request to convert at least one more infantry division to the South African armoured division pattern.
Norway currently has the Free 6th Norwegian Division with four brigades of light infantry trained for specialized duties. These units are in Scotland on training and home defense duties.
Free Dutch forces and the Dutch Army of the Indies are entirely reliant on Allied supply. Limited, local logistical support of basic consumables and petroleum is available in the Indies. Currently, there is a single Dutch European division in Java, and four more infantry as well as one mechanized cavalry division are rebuilding. None are available for combat operations at this time but should be available by June 1, 1944.
The Royal Navy evacuated almost 100,000 men from the Belgian Army. The Free Belgian Army currently consists of five four battalion infantry brigades. They routinely train with the single Free Czech tank brigade. One brigade has been deployed to the Belgian Congo. We can consider this to be an oversized single division.
French forces will be the dominant subject of discussion today. There are three major streams of French forces that must be supplied with current production and another stream that will be under consideration for future meetings. Currently, the French can field two infantry divisions that have been in Great Britain since 1940. Another six divisions including an armoured division have been formed and supplied from the units of the North African garrisons. Madagascar and Levantine garrisons can supply another two infantry divisions. Local conscription can supply several more divisions worth of manpower while there is sufficient officers and cadre for at least three more divisions. The French want to convert at least three of their current divisions to Commonwealth standard armoured divisions.
In the long run, as we liberate France, we will also need to support a greatly expanded French Army that can conscript and train from local populations.
Finally, the Greeks have a single infantry division on Crete, and another veteran division in Libya. They have stood up a static division from Cretan conscripts. If and when we move significant forces into Greece, we will face the same challenge of re-equipping the Greek Army that is able to build units from local populations.
We have significant but limited resources. Every ten half tracks we send to a Free unit to build it up is probably seven half tracks that will not be used by the Russians on the Eastern Front. Over the long run, building up Free allied units will be a more efficient use of resources presuming the Russians can continue to battle the Heer to a standstill but if we pull to many resources from our Russian allies, they may either be defeated or agree to a separate peace. And then an extra division or two of French or Greek troops will be meaningless against the newly available hundred German divisions….
So let’s get to work….”
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This is the fine line - giving the Russians enough so they stay in the fight but not so much that "western" resources are too constrained. Stalin can always bet that if he makes a deal with Hitler and gets an armistice line not too brutal that he can let the Germans and the Western Allies duke it out and expect the Germans be defeated. Then like in WWI where the Brest-Litovsk losses were restored by the defeat of German, he can get back the pre-1939 borders and perhaps more.
If the Germans are only fighting the Western Allies then forces will be pulled from occupied Russia to defend in the west and/or south. Even before a German surrender Stalin can then reenter the war against much more limited German resistance. In the chaos as Germany goes down in flames, there will be all sorts of unrest in Eastern Europe. OTL following WWI there was Bela Kun and the brief communist regime in Hungary. If there is a communist uprising in Hungary or elsewhere, the Russians are close at hand to lend "fraternal assistance". Even at its best it does not provide the buffers that happened OTL, but perfect is the enemy of good and even worst case the Soviets get back the Baltic States, perhaps part of Poland/Moldavia and other random bits and potentially one or two "fraternal" states on the border. Absolute worst is they go back to pre-1939 and pre-Winter War borders. Also the possibility of gains in the east, jumping on Japan when they are going down exists - Manchuria, Southern Sakhalin, perhaps Korea and the Kuriles beckon.
In 1943 Stalin is still deep in to trying to get back to the pre-1939 borders, and the USSR is paying a heavy price for every advance. Of course, given the better situation of the Western Allies here, the need to keep the USSR fighting, while still important, is not quite so desperate as it was at the same time OTL.
In 1943 Stalin is still deep in to trying to get back to the pre-1939 borders, and the USSR is paying a heavy price for every advance. Of course, given the better situation of the Western Allies here, the need to keep the USSR fighting, while still important, is not quite so desperate as it was at the same time OTL.
Driftless
Donor
Wouldn't beefing up the French, Polish, Greek, etc forces for action in the West also answer Stalin's call for a quicker second front? He would complain about the diversion of LL, but realistically he can't have it both ways...... Not that it would stop him from complaining.
French, Polish and Greek divisions in North Africa can only do so much. The constraint (as always) is shipping and more specifically, amphibious assault shipping.
formion
Banned
There are different kinds of LL that were sent to the USSR
- Avgas
- Railoroad supplies (locomotives, cars, rails)
- Explosives
- Copper
- Aluminium
- Aircraft
- Tanks
- AA artillery
- Tires
- Food
- Machine tools
- Trucks
By all means, machine tools, P-39s, Shermans, food, avgas, copper wire etc can continue to be sent. However, when the Allies land in Europe, they will need thousands more trucks and railway equipment to rebuild the French/Italian/Belgian/Greek etc railways. Shiny Shermans constitute such a nice gesture towards the Soviet Allies. But look, here is a whole factory of machine tools to build more artillery! A pity there are not enough Studebakers to haul those artillery pieces and carry the ammunition for the shiny Shermans....
- Avgas
- Railoroad supplies (locomotives, cars, rails)
- Explosives
- Copper
- Aluminium
- Aircraft
- Tanks
- AA artillery
- Tires
- Food
- Machine tools
- Trucks
By all means, machine tools, P-39s, Shermans, food, avgas, copper wire etc can continue to be sent. However, when the Allies land in Europe, they will need thousands more trucks and railway equipment to rebuild the French/Italian/Belgian/Greek etc railways. Shiny Shermans constitute such a nice gesture towards the Soviet Allies. But look, here is a whole factory of machine tools to build more artillery! A pity there are not enough Studebakers to haul those artillery pieces and carry the ammunition for the shiny Shermans....
Driftless
Donor
My notion is partly along the thought that Stalin historically repeatedly pressed for to open a second front to relieve pressure on the Soviets. The West couldn't land forces on the continent fast enough for his satisfaction. Here, you've framed up the counter-argument that while the Western Allies can stand up some hefty nose-count of fighting forces for that second front, but it still would take them time and considerable resource to launch them as an amphibious invasion anywhere. It seems a bigger challenge to supply 150,000+ via sea(where you control zero ports) than the same number via overland means. As you've noted, the material constraints are huge. Even with the Allies astounding capacity for production, there's still limits to that ability and a rational Uncle Joe should realize that. It's not quite the "guns or butter" rationing related discussion we had yesterday; but more of a "guns here or guns there" type of calculus.
I would imagine that the Wallies have recovered a great deal of Italian equipment and a smaller but not insignificant amount of German equipment during their victories in North and West Africa
9 Axis Divisions went into the bag at Cape Bon alone - so for the 'Garrison' divisions that are not directly going to be liberating Europe can be equipped with "Kriegsbeute" which should be able to lessen the burden somewhat allowing more first class weapons to go to Russia and equip those Wallied formations that will ultimately be liberating Europe.
Captured stocks of ammo might be sufficient but the British and one would presume the Americans as well are making Mauser 7.92mm rifle ammo (for the BESA MMG on British AFVs) for example and the USA did prove able to quickly stand up ammo for new calibres etc
Oh and do remember to vote
Nudge Nudge, wink wink, say no more
9 Axis Divisions went into the bag at Cape Bon alone - so for the 'Garrison' divisions that are not directly going to be liberating Europe can be equipped with "Kriegsbeute" which should be able to lessen the burden somewhat allowing more first class weapons to go to Russia and equip those Wallied formations that will ultimately be liberating Europe.
Captured stocks of ammo might be sufficient but the British and one would presume the Americans as well are making Mauser 7.92mm rifle ammo (for the BESA MMG on British AFVs) for example and the USA did prove able to quickly stand up ammo for new calibres etc
Oh and do remember to vote
Nudge Nudge, wink wink, say no more
Chinese armies also used 7.92mm - German and Czech supplied, and local copies. No idea of ammunition supplies - getting stuff to them was somewhat difficult.
Updated to half tracks -- I just wanted to make clear that there was a trade-off between standing up a Free French Division and keeping a Red Army rifle division in the field.
The problems with amphibious shipping are not as bad for Med operations, and I expect with either a Greek operation or Southern France would have a good chance of capturing a port fairly soon. Once you have a working port, logistic issues are much less of a problem. If Sicily, Sardinia, and Corsica are in Allied hands - the next step being some where along the southern margin of continental Europe, I wonder if a major effort in Italy (or even anywhere in mainland Italy), is going to be worth it unless you get Italian guarantees they will resist any German troops.
I can help you out with that, actually.
The Chinese did produce their own 7.92x57mm Mauser ammunition, even after the massive industrial retreat into China's interior. They'd already been producing 7.92mm rounds since the Qing Dynasty, thanks to German military influence within China being active even then. With cooperation with the Weimar Republic and then the Nazis, plus the influence of the continued German military mission under von Seeckt and von Falkenhausen, 7.92mm production of the new pointed 'spitzer' rounds picked up throughout the decades.
The main thing holding them back after 1938 was not only their poor resupply, but the fact that raw materials were scarce, and the arsenals had to leave a lot of precious machinery behind. Not only that, ammunition was in serious demand from all across the front. Chiang had to pick his battles carefully, to conserve ammunition for all his forces.
It's actually thought that the reason why China stayed on the defensive for so long (to Stilwell's sputtering outrage and endless bitching in his diary) until limited offensive operations began in 1945 was because of the lack of sufficient ammunition for every soldier, from division to squad level.
Most of this is from Kangzhan: A Guide to Chinese Ground Forces by ROCA veteran and very helpful source Bin Shih.
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formion
Banned
Indeed. A prerequisite for a Greek landing is the complete disintegration of the Italian Army. So basically it won't be a forced landing but rather steaming into the Piraeus port after minesweepers clear the approaches. The OTL examples of such unopposed landings where the OTL Dodecanese Campaign in September 1943. Even with major Luftwaffe airbases in Crete, the British landed unopposed on Kos and Leros islands.
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