King Louis Philippe Egalité

[Ricardolindo]

Inspired by John Frederick Parker's thread in 2018 and the fact, that, I am currently studying the French Revolution for my high school test: What if Louis XVI and his close family had successfully fled and then the National Constituent Assembly declared, that, they had renounced their succession rights and made Louis Philippe II d' Orleans/Philippe Egalité, a notorius supporter of the Revolution, King of the French? How would he rule France?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I've long liked the idea of this as a PoD, where the Constituent Assembly responds by declaring that the king (and his son and brother) has abdicated his throne, and following the line of succession then offer the crown to the Duke of Orleans, a sympathizer of the revolution.

I'm more interested in what the Royalists would do, not the Revolutionaries. With the King at liberty in Montmédy I think we'd see earlier Royalist revolts in the Vendée, Brittany, Normandy and in the South. We're also likely to see the various Armée des Émigrés move into France, likely into Lorraine or Champagne. Not sure what the other Great powers would do exactly: Declaration of Pillnitz didn't happen until August 1791 and it was Louis XVI's execution that scared Europe's Sovereigns into action, so any coalition is likely to be smaller than OTL. In my opinion the question becomes whether which army is stronger: the Émigrés or the Revolutionaries? Also, will Louis XVI compromise at all, like he hinted at in the Letter left in the Tuileries, or would we see a return to May 1789?

A few thoughts.

1) The Constituent Assembly is likely to be far bolder than James II's parliament to reorder things as they like. They've worked a good head of steam on that front, after all, and they're going to be making Louis the King of the French in a few months OTL.

2) Deciding that they'd found the throne absent seems possible; after all, Louis did try to run, arguably with less coercion than James II (because they don't know yet that Louis had a pretty good idea as to where this was going to end up).

3) They still seem to have really cold feet about the idea of a Republic; and the factions most eager for that Republic are not yet in the ascendant.

4) Phillipe Egalite was a self-promoting bastard of Charlie Crist-ian levels. He also had better political skills than the main line of the dynasty (not hard, okay, but still).

Putting it all together, King Phillipe seems quite possible. And I think that this is a huge change, because you're putting someone into the Constitutional monarch role who could interface with factions in the Legislative and use the powers a citizen King to much greater extent, and wouldn't be starting off illegitimate to the Assembly due to the flight. His diplomatic legitimacy is something else entirely. I think that his end game, after a lengthy wars of the French Revolution, would be to get the kind of offer Napoleon got towards the end: pull back to the original borders and we'll recognize you.

That may depend on the fate of King Philip VII. Lafayette saw Orleans as a threat, so he convinced him to flee to the British isles, which damaged his popularity and influence with the Jacobins and common people.

I personally don't see much of a future for Philippe Egalite in any case. Going by Revolutionary France's early war record, when things start to go wrong, he'll be the obvious scapegoat. Besides which, while he (and his son later in life) may have supported the Jacobins, his wife, a devout Catholic, did not l. I think by Varennes, she had already left her husband and retired to Normandy.

I don't expect the Bourbon Restorationists would be more successful than OTL; if anything, not having an regicide to avenge would take some of the wind out of their sails.

As to how effective the Jacobin Republicans would be, as noted above it does strike me as one of the more likely possible outcomes (moreso than the CNA, much less their successors, negotiating for Louis' return). Actually in both of the two (IMHO) more likely scenarios, the Jacobins would be getting a win, since the Duke of Orleans was close to their club. Coming to think of it -- and this may be a pretty crazy thought -- the Constitutional Monarchist inclined members could, ironically enough, be the ones to find themselves supporting a Republic, to avoid having a Jacobin King.

What if, following a successful flight by Louis XVI and his family,* the National Constituent Assembly had declared that the King and all those who had fled the country had effectively abdicated their throne,** and, rather than declaring a republic, they had declared that the new monarch was now the Duke of Orleans, Louis Philippe II? (I recall that @TheYoungPretender had thoughts on this man.)

How would this be received in France and in Europe? What would King Philippe's reign be like, and how is the course of the Revolution affected? And if war still breaks out with Austria and others, how does said conflict compare with OTL's War of the First Coalition? And given all of this, how is history altered?

*to be clear, I am aware the likelihood of this being the result of a successful Flight to Varennes as the PoD is debated
**the King and the Dauphin having escaped to the Austrian Netherlands, while the Count of Provence escapes as OTL, and their brother, the Count or Artois, has been outside of France for sometime now

CONSOLIDATE: Possible places to start -- how could the elections (just over two months after the PoD) be affected? Alternatively, does this affect the Revolution in Haiti? What about the neutrality policy of the Washington Administration?

Also, I realized I’ve brought up this PoD before with @GauchoBadger and @Cornelis:

To expand - without Louis being executed, I imagine Naples, Spain, and Portugal won’t be declaring war in early 1793; the Dutch Republic won’t be jumping in either, but depending on French ambitions in the Lowlands, that might not save them; and as to the British, the lack of regicide plus a potentially different policy re the Dutch could make the difference there as well. All told, even if civil war comes to France, with Austria, Prussia, and Sardinia intervening on the side of the Bourbons, the “Orleanist” French could still prevail, and sooner than the French Republic did against the First Republic OTL.

Well Egalite as King can very well preventing the full political rise of Robespierre and butterfly the Terror as the constitutional monarchy here will stay alive unless Louis XVI can conquer again France

As for the OP, I can see a race between the new French King and the extremists in France to see who can out-radical the other.

Louis Phillipe II did have a long history of supporting some of the more radical thinkers of the Enlightenment and the Revolution, so it's entirely possible this could happen; that said, it should be remembered that the Jacobins didn't actually do as well as the constitutional monarchists [in the 1791 elections], who TTL are propping up a king significantly to their left. So I'd say it's more a case of radicals taking the opportunity to shift the overton window like nobody's business...

 

[Kaze]

He would have problems to rule as an absolute ruler...Philip would have to accept reality --- he would have to accept the idea of Constitutional monarchy like the British system or his head would be prepared for the national razor.

 

[Ricardolindo]

He would have problems to rule as an absolute ruler...Philip would have to accept reality --- he would have to accept the idea of Constitutional monarchy like the British system or his head would be prepared for the national razor.

Louis Philippe d'Orléans was known for his staunch support of the Revolution and for wanting an England-style constitutional monarchy. He even changed his name to Philippe Egalité.

 

[isabella]

Well well a slightly better planned and executed flight to Varrennes can very well work...
But you need either to divide the royal family in three coaches or at least have them not being late (and maybe not dressed in so blatant contrast to their coach, at least for the supposed Baroness and the alleged daughters)...

Philippe Egalitè as Costitutional King would be likely in his element and considering this plus his bad relationship with his kins is pretty unlikely who someone will accuse him to sell France to is enemies...
If the costitutional monarchy stay in place with the new (and not recognized outside France) King and his children at the Tuileries is pretty unlikely who we will see the takeover of Robespierre and something like the Terror... Instead is more likely who France will shift earlier to something like the OTL Directorate

 

[Corjomc]

Intersting if a certain Corsican general were to rise up during the conflicts at this time and become the great hero of France.

To keep him onside they marry him to Princess Adelaide.

 

[isabella]

Intersting if a certain Corsican general were to rise up during the conflicts at this time and become the great hero of France.

To keep him onside they marry him to Princess Adelaide.

Well Napoleon can very well have his OTL career (at least until before the Campaign of Egypt). Saving France would surely give him a nobiliar title, riches, honour for himself and his family and a noble wife but not princess Adelaide (and I can not see them compatible in any way). The only Orléans-Bonaparte match I can see having a little chance to happen in a such scenario is one between OTL Louis Philip and Pauline Bonaparte, but that will be still pretty unlikely.
If France can keep its constitutional monarchy for many years I can see very well a match between Napoleon’s daughter (who will have ancient noble blood from her mother side) and the son and heir of Louis Philip.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

How would France and Europe be different if they manage to specifically avoid the Reign of Terror?

Also, if I’m right about how a War with Austria would be altered - with Naples, Spain, and Portugal remaining neutral, and the Netherlands and Britain being slower to join - would you agree the conflict is likely shorter and more limited?

 

[Derek Pullem]

Inspired by John Frederick Parker's thread in 2018 and the fact, that, I am currently studying the French Revolution for my high school test: What if Louis XVI and his close family had successfully fled and then the National Constituent Assembly declared, that, they had renounced their succession rights and made Louis Philippe II d' Orleans/Philippe Egalité, a notorius supporter of the Revolution, King of the French? How would he rule France?

So basically a James II / William & Mary situation without the religious aspect.

Well presumably if Louis XVI escapes to a friendly court (probably Austria) he will agitate to dethrone Phillipe. Almost certainly would see a Jacobite style return to France with Austrian support. And given OTL history he will almost certainly lose. The war will probably spin out of control and involve the Austrian Netherlands which will probably bring the UK in against France too (when has UK ever needed an excuse to intervene in Flanders!).

Assuming the French hold their own (likely with popular support and more of the army remaining to fight), it is likely that things will settle down after a few years. Wouldn't rule out a round 2 but same result is likely.

Providing Phillipe and Robespierre can keep the more extreme elements of the revolution under control then in the end the various monarchies in Europe are dealing with a situation they have seen before in the UK and will have to deal with again in OTL in 1830. I would bet on Phillipe keeping a lid on dissent for a while but can easily see a Napoleonic (III) style coup by Napoleon if he gets it wrong. However in this case you are looking at an English Civil War style scenario - if that drags out then intervention from rest of Europe is probable.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Well presumably if Louis XVI escapes to a friendly court (probably Austria) he will agitate to dethrone Phillipe. Almost certainly would see a Jacobite style return to France with Austrian support. And given OTL history he will almost certainly lose. The war will probably spin out of control and involve the Austrian Netherlands which will probably bring the UK in against France too (when has UK ever needed an excuse to intervene in Flanders!)

Ah, so it seems Britain is invariably going to take this opportunity to join TTL’s First Coalition equivalent. Do you think that Louis’ Bourbon cousins in Spain and Naples will be keen on helping restore him to the throne if he’s not killed, or do they opt for neutrality?

 

[Derek Pullem]

Ah, so it seems Britain is invariably going to take this opportunity to join TTL’s First Coalition equivalent. Do you think that Louis’ Bourbon cousins in Spain and Naples will be keen on helping restore him to the throne if he’s not killed, or do they opt for neutrality?

Naples is irrelevant. Spain almost the same although alot will depend if Phillipe can combine the best of both worlds and retain both the levee en masse and more of the old regime officer corps.

 

[Arcavia]

If France can keep its constitutional monarchy for many years I can see very well a match between Napoleon’s daughter (who will have ancient noble blood from her mother side) and the son and heir of Louis Philip.

ITTL, could you see Napoleon as Prince-Regent of the French depending on when Phillipe Egalite dies?

Also, what would the regnal/dynastic name be? Would Phillipe revert to using the family name de Bourbon, use d'Orleans, or simply Egalite?

What title(s) might the Bonapartes end up with? I could picture Napoleon retaining a stronger attachment to his homeland and perhaps being created Duc de Corse, depending on the POD used.

 

[piratedude]

If the costitutional monarchy stay in place with the new (and not recognized outside France)

Why wouldn't the U.S. recognize him? And as an extension of that, how would this affect Franco-American relations?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Why wouldn't the U.S. recognize him? And as an extension of that, how would this affect Franco-American relations?

Actually, that does bring up an interesting point - America's policy of Neutrality, aside from being dictated by American interests, was rationalized in no small part by saying that US-French Treaties had been with the King, who had been killed, thus negating US obligations; but if said King is still alive and is claiming that a usurper sits on his throne, than that rationale does Washington's Administration no good at all, since it would tie him to join the Anti-Phillipe Alliance. So Washington can either side with his Secretary of State and give recognition and support to the new government in Paris, or he has to come up with some different rationale for why America isn't legally obligated to get involved.

 

[piratedude]

Actually, that does bring up an interesting point - America's policy of Neutrality, aside from being dictated by American interests, was rationalized in no small part by saying that US-French Treaties had been with the King, who had been killed, thus negating US obligations; but if said King is still alive and is claiming that a usurper sits on his throne, than that rationale does Washington's Administration no good at all, since it would tie him to join the Anti-Phillipe Alliance. So Washington can either side with his Secretary of State and give recognition and support to the new government in Paris, or he has to come up with some different rationale for why America isn't legally obligated to get involved.

Well i guess it depends on the answer to two questions:
1: Are the treaties with the personage of the french monarch, or with the legal entity of the French Crown?

That was a non issue OTL because they had abloshed the monarchy as well qs killing the king. Neither is the case here

2: is there a legitimate possesor of the crown of france?

Louis fleeing to austrian lands can be considered abadoning his post, though that doesn't necessarily mean that Louis Philippe is legitimate. And isn't the king of England still claiming the french thone at this point in time?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@Corjomc @isabella @Arcavius - Guys, we don’t even know if Napoleon still rises as high TTL; it’s not like France lacked for capable military leaders. Speaking of which...

Naples is irrelevant. Spain almost the same although alot will depend if Phillipe can combine the best of both worlds and retain both the levee en masse and more of the old regime officer corps.

That could make Phillipe aligned France nigh unbeatable, and could mean an even shorter (first?) war.

And isn't the king of England still claiming the french thone at this point in time?

No help. At all.

Well i guess it depends on the answer to two questions:

1. Are the treaties with the personage of the french monarch, or with the legal entity of the French Crown? That was a non issue OTL because they had abloshed the monarchy as well as killing the king. Neither is the case here
2. Is there a legitimate possesor of the crown of france? Louis fleeing to austrian lands can be considered abandoning his post, though that doesn't necessarily mean that Louis Philippe is legitimate.

Hm, that's some chicanery there. "We made our Treaty with the Crown of France; however, as the king we made said treaty with has fled, it is unclear to us whether which head the crown sits on, if anybody's at all. Therefore, the Treaty is non-binding." The really tricky thing here is that if Washington says that Louis' flight invalidates his right to obligations from treaty, than he has de facto declared that Louis has abdicated the throne, and so taken a side in the conflict, at least legally.

I suppose, to get out of this, his Administration could refer to this as an internal French matter, foreign armies becoming involved notwithstanding; come to think of it, that might actually be the best solution (and could actually create fewer complications for American Foreign Policy than OTL down the line, to boot).

 

[piratedude]

No help. At all.

Hm, that's some chicanery there.

Well if the goal is to weasel out of a treaty you best throw up as much smoke as possible. Its not like what the US did OTL wasn't dubious as well.

I suppose, to get out of this, his Administration could refer to this as an internal French matter, foreign armies becoming involved notwithstanding

And im sure they'll still cry foul about that, given our war for independence was an internal matter too

 

[isabella]

Why wouldn't the U.S. recognize him? And as an extension of that, how would this affect Franco-American relations?

Well maybe America will recognize him (and we have some chances also for England, if they decided to not fight against France) but is unlikely who that will happen during the First Coalition and for sure the states of the first coalition recognize Louis XVI as King. I was mostly making a parallel between the situation with Philippe Egalite as costitutional King and the the OTL with Louis XVI and pointing on the reasons for which the French Republic, the Robespierre’s takeover and the Terror will never happen here...

If Philippe Egalite can keep his Crown for some years and win against the first coalition he will have a sort of international recognition (think to Cromwell, William of Orange and the Hanoverians as example) at least from some states. England is likely to recognize Philippe Egalite as King, same for the Dutch Republic and America (but America is irrelevant as they do not fight in Europe and if Philippe’s France do not attack the Dutch (and they have no reason for doing it) a war between England and France is unlikely (specially if England can get France to agree at a split of Austrian Netherlands with the Dutch Republic)...

@John Fredrick Parker I agree about Napoleon as I was working on a scenario proposed by others, but in a situation in which good officers can still emerge quickly and nobility titles are still valued (and with Corsica remaining French) Napoleon will likely be in condition of emerging easily (he is an officer from a military school in a country who need to rebuild his officer’s gerarchy) and he was talented enough for doing it. Plus here we will take away all his Corsican troubles (England and Netherlands will not join the first coalition with a stable Costitutional Monarchy in France) so he will be free to follow his path in France...

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

How would France and Europe be different if they manage to specifically avoid the Reign of Terror?

As interesting as thinking about how IR and an Alt-Wo1C is affected, this is also something that deserves thinking about.

 

[Derek Pullem]

As interesting as thinking about how IR and an Alt-Wo1C is affected, this is also something that deserves thinking about.

IR? War of 1st Coalition will end up being the War of French Succession. Providing France is willing to compromise in Flanders I think they can win such a war - probably end up with minor gains such as Ostend to Namur. Provided Antwerp isn't French I think the British will be satisfied. They may even accept a French Brussels but if that happens I think annexation of the rump Austrian Netherlands by Holland is likely.

There just isn't the popular support necessary for a civil war between Louis Phillippe and the Jacobins and the Bourbons. And foreign intervention without popular support ended badly for the absolute monarchs even when France was in a much worse position.

If Louis Phillipe can be successful then I think he keeps the Generals onside and if he can manage the Jacobins (much less certain) then he can prevent the terror.

The interesting alternative is for Louis Phillipe to fall out with the Jacobins and a French civil war to break out. If the royal party is relative secure and popular then the war could be a long one absent intervention which I think is likely and very messy. But you don't get a "natural borders" France out of this - that would be for an alt-Cromwell (Napoleon?)